OT: Baseball is screwed!

[August_West]

Sweden’s Economy Spared

One of the favorite lies of COVID alarmists is that Sweden not locking down didn’t help their economy. Sweden’s light-touch Covid-19 approach spared economy, says SEB chief Another lie is that Swed…

realclimatescience.com

Thank god for socialized health care and 60% top end progressive tax rates, and 30% capital gains taxes. amirite?

 

[Peacefrog]

Sweden’s Economy Spared

One of the favorite lies of COVID alarmists is that Sweden not locking down didn’t help their economy. Sweden’s light-touch Covid-19 approach spared economy, says SEB chief Another lie is that Swed…

realclimatescience.com

Well, I'm not sure what to make of all that. I am always open to having my mind changed but I simply don't know these sources and the fact that one of them goes with the byline: "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" isn't encouraging . Doesn't sound real credible does it? One of the articles actually supports my statement that antibody levels in Sweden are far too low (even lower than I originally stated) to have herd immunity. Simply having reduced deaths says nothing about having actually reached herd immunity. There are all kinds of ways to get the death rate down ie: masks, social distancing, locking ourselves in our houses forever...

Have you sought out the opposing view? I think we can all agree that The Economist is reputable and pretty impartial. I suggest you see what publications like that have to say. It might change your mind. I also get frustrated with the "mainstream" media and agree that there is often a bias. But unfortunately, the alternative to mainstream is often crazy, wingnut stuff. Someone tried to change my mind yesterday by sending me something from Breitbart for God's sake. Again, the majority of the country's own medical establishment is saying it was a mistake.

*adding some snippets from the BBC. Seems to point to declining cases/deaths due to Swedes increasing social distancing measures like the rest of us, not from herd immunity. Also, shows Swedish economy not demonstrably outperforming its Nordic neighbors:

Are Swedes better at social distancing?
Anders Tegnell says his modelling indicates that, on average, Swedes have around 30% of the social interactions they did prior to the pandemic.

And a survey released this week by Sweden's Civil Contingencies Agency suggests 87% of the population are continuing to follow social distancing recommendations to the same extent as they were one or two weeks earlier, up from 82% a month ago.

How's the Swedish economy doing?
The strategy was not designed to protect the economy either, but the government argued keeping more of society open could limit job losses and mitigate the impact on business.

Research from Scandinavian bank SEB in April suggested Swedes were spending at a higher rate than consumers in neighbouring Nordic nations.

Despite this, various forecasts predict the Swedish economy will still shrink by about 5% this year. That's less than other countries hit hard by Covid-19 such as Italy, Spain and the UK, but still similar to the rest of Scandinavia. Sweden's unemployment rate of 9% remains the highest in the Nordics, up from 7.1% in March.

So, whom to believe? I would love to believe that Sweden has achieved herd immunity but there doesn't seem to be direct evidence that that is the case. I'm hopeful that things like T-cell and B-cell memory can play a big role because even those who have antibodies only keep them for a matter of weeks to a few months. Their economy doesn't seem to be outperforming their neighbors and they drastically cut down social interactions whether mandated or not. One difference that you can point to is that they had 10x the number of deaths. Even if you take out effects of elder care facilities they are way higher. Nobody is challenging that.

 

[7774]

Well, I'm not sure what to make of all that. I am always open to having my mind changed but I simply don't know these sources and the fact that one of them goes with the byline: "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" isn't encouraging . Doesn't sound real credible does it? One of the articles actually supports my statement that antibody levels in Sweden are far too low (even lower than I originally stated) to have herd immunity. Simply having reduced deaths says nothing about having actually reached herd immunity. There are all kinds of ways to get the death rate down ie: masks, social distancing, locking ourselves in our houses forever...

Have you sought out the opposing view? I think we can all agree that The Economist is reputable and pretty impartial. I suggest you see what publications like that have to say. It might change your mind. I also get frustrated with the "mainstream" media and agree that there is often a bias. But unfortunately, the alternative to mainstream is often crazy, wingnut stuff. Someone tried to change my mind yesterday by sending me something from Breitbart for God's sake. Again, the majority of the country's own medical establishment is saying it was a mistake.

It's a website that doesn't think climate change is real. So that's what you can make of it.

 

[NJHusky]

I think we opened some things we shouldn't have (indoor dining, gyms). We closed things we shouldn't have (beaches, parks, golf, small retail with capacity limits). Too much emphasis on what is "essential" and not what can be done with low risk. What is "essential" should only be relevant for what is high risk. Working at CVS for 8 hours is risky, but is essential. Schools are probably lower risk than that and every bit as essential. Golfing is almost zero risk, but is non essential.

Exactly.

Why is a cashier at the home depot or liquor store clerk ok to work but a teacher isn't? That cashier interacts with a lot more than 20-25 individuals a teacher does.

How is going to Walmart with 500 people ok but going to a local jeweler with no one else in the store a problem?

 

[NJHusky]

Sweden has the correct approach to health care and taxes

Thanks Joe...but some of us don't agree...The Personal Income tax rate in Sweden stands at 57.20 percent. Personal Income Tax reached an all time high of 61.40 percent in 1996

 

[August_West]

Thanks Joe...but some of us don't agree...The Personal Income tax rate in Sweden stands at 57.20 percent. Personal Income Tax reached an all time high of 61.40 percent in 1996

Yet they are a happier society than us, a healthier society than us, and rated higher on the US news best countries in the world list.


Muh 'Murica

 

[alphasigko]

Well, I'm not sure what to make of all that. I am always open to having my mind changed but I simply don't know these sources and the fact that one of them goes with the byline: "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" isn't encouraging . Doesn't sound real credible does it? One of the articles actually supports my statement that antibody levels in Sweden are far too low (even lower than I originally stated) to have herd immunity. Simply having reduced deaths says nothing about having actually reached herd immunity. There are all kinds of ways to get the death rate down ie: masks, social distancing, locking ourselves in our houses forever...

Have you sought out the opposing view? I think we can all agree that The Economist is reputable and pretty impartial. I suggest you see what publications like that have to say. It might change your mind. I also get frustrated with the "mainstream" media and agree that there is often a bias. But unfortunately, the alternative to mainstream is often crazy, wingnut stuff. Someone tried to change my mind yesterday by sending me something from Breitbart for God's sake. Again, the majority of the country's own medical establishment is saying it was a mistake.

*adding some snippets from the BBC. Seems to point to declining cases/deaths due to Swedes increasing social distancing measures like the rest of us, not from herd immunity. Also, shows Swedish economy not demonstrably outperforming its Nordic neighbors:

Are Swedes better at social distancing?
Anders Tegnell says his modelling indicates that, on average, Swedes have around 30% of the social interactions they did prior to the pandemic.

And a survey released this week by Sweden's Civil Contingencies Agency suggests 87% of the population are continuing to follow social distancing recommendations to the same extent as they were one or two weeks earlier, up from 82% a month ago.

How's the Swedish economy doing?
The strategy was not designed to protect the economy either, but the government argued keeping more of society open could limit job losses and mitigate the impact on business.

Research from Scandinavian bank SEB in April suggested Swedes were spending at a higher rate than consumers in neighbouring Nordic nations.

Despite this, various forecasts predict the Swedish economy will still shrink by about 5% this year. That's less than other countries hit hard by Covid-19 such as Italy, Spain and the UK, but still similar to the rest of Scandinavia. Sweden's unemployment rate of 9% remains the highest in the Nordics, up from 7.1% in March.

So, whom to believe? I would love to believe that Sweden has achieved herd immunity but there doesn't seem to be direct evidence that that is the case. I'm hopeful that things like T-cell and B-cell memory can play a big role because even those who have antibodies only keep them for a matter of weeks to a few months. Their economy doesn't seem to be outperforming their neighbors and they drastically cut down social interactions whether mandated or not. One difference that you can point to is that they had 10x the number of deaths. Even if you take out effects of elder care facilities they are way higher. Nobody is challenging that.

See this rating on the "The Economist":

The Economist Media Bias Rating

Learn the AllSides Media Bias Rating of The Economist. AllSides rates the media bias of hundreds of news outlets, media sources and writers.

www.allsides.com

So, not completely "Impartial". Just sayin'...

 

[NJHusky]

Yet they are a happier society than us, a healthier society than us, and rated higher on the US news best countries in the world list.


Muh 'Murica

so if we taxed people more they couldn't afford to go to starbucks and drink 3000 calories a day and they would be healthier...makes sense to me. If US News published it then it must impact my life. Just curious, how much time have you spent in Sweden?

 

[ctchamps]

Anybody who thinks this is more risky than safely driving to school, for a kid, is a fool. I'm all for managing risk responsibly. I think we opened some things we shouldn't have (indoor dining, gyms). We closed things we shouldn't have (beaches, parks, golf, small retail with capacity limits). Too much emphasis on what is "essential" and not what can be done with low risk. What is "essential" should only be relevant for what is high risk. Working at CVS for 8 hours is risky, but is essential. Schools are probably lower risk than that and every bit as essential. Golfing is almost zero risk, but is non essential.

Agree with the italicized and red parts of your statement.
Based on current information I agree with bold black. I've already stated my position why I'd continue to remain cautious with this group. They are most essential. I'd like a little more time for science to understand this virus.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Exactly.

Why is a cashier at the home depot or liquor store clerk ok to work but a teacher isn't? That cashier interacts with a lot more than 20-25 individuals a teacher does.

How is going to Walmart with 500 people ok but going to a local jeweler with no one else in the store a problem?

C'mon don't be daft. The 25 kids get on a bus with 100 others and the entire thing is comparable to a slow-cooked stew over 8hrs versus an individually wrapped, separate 30* minutes in and out of Home Depot.

I'm masked throughout and cleaning hands immediately after every time into a store, most clerks similarly masked, often behind plexiglass and wearing gloves. To get the same situation at schools that'd translate to 32 handwashings a day, non-stop masking, no eating or drinking, constant trips outside for every person in a school and teachers would have to be gowned & outfitted with N95 masks like hospital workers.

Just like most offices, schools are trying to find new safe ways to operate which likely means <50% capacity. Those thoughtfully working on all of the protocols are trying.

*It should take <15 but I've never been able to get in and out of that place quickly.

 

[Peacefrog]

See this rating on the "The Economist":

The Economist Media Bias Rating

Learn the AllSides Media Bias Rating of The Economist. AllSides rates the media bias of hundreds of news outlets, media sources and writers.

www.allsides.com

So, not completely "Impartial". Just sayin'...

So, you added the "completely", correct? I believe I said something along the lines of "pretty impartial" and I'll stand by that. It seems your source agrees. "Left of center" would seem to fit the description of "pretty impartial". Of course your source claims that "unbiased news does not exist" (and I whole-heartedly agree with that) but then seems to proclaim to provide just that. I'm not sure what their bona fides are to be making these judgements but whatever, somebody has to I guess. On economic issues I would say The Economist is definitely right of center for what its worth and quite reasonable. Give it a read and I think you'll find the same. My daughter showed me a chart of bias v reputation for a number of news outlets. I'll see if I can find it. Its definitely worth understanding the particular slant a publication is likely to have when reading it.

 

[freescooter]

Have you read the latest (7/24) report from the CDC about long term effects that occur? And Dean you are right about the first part but it was an utter lack of leadership and a decision to put the economy ahead of health every time there was a decision to be made. It was the independent streak. That is a lot of hockum. It Was a series of intentional decisions to set economic activity above all else. And the result is more than 150000 deaths AND an economy in tatters while other places are recovering. As I’ve said numerous times, we knew and still know how to get control of this. It is difficult and it is costly, but it would have been less costly than it will now be, but it requires leadership on multiple levels And consistent messages and follow through.

 

[superjohn]

As to part one of your answer, its the numbers reported by Sweden themselves. They probably have a better idea than either of us.

As to the second part of your answer, I believe you're just factually wrong. Saw info I believe in The Economist and two other articles. Their economy did not perform demonstrably better than their neighbors.

Sweden has been an interesting and useful data point. I believe their medical community other than those who own the decision to take no precautionary measures, are admitting it was the wrong approach. Maybe it was worth a try but it didn't work. More sickness. More death. No herd immunity. No economic benefit.

They've been all over the map on antibodies, they said 1 out of 5 had antibodies in May and then something like 6% had antibodies in June. We still don't know how long antibodies cover you and we seem to have no clue on herd immunity whether it takes the 60-70% we always heard about or it's more like 20% that gives a serious type of herd immunity where not many people are getting the virus anymore. What we do know is Sweden isn't getting many cases anymore and their daily deaths are in the single digits now and have been for a while. They screwed up like we screwed up with nursing homes, over 50% of their Covid deaths came from these facilities but they have lived their lives, their economy is better off than anywhere else, their kids have been educated (schools remained open and there is no known problems associated with that) their hospitals were never taxed. Things can change but I do know I would way rather be in their position right now than ours.

Sweden had one of the most relaxed COVID-19 lockdowns in the world. There's growing evidence that it helped it weather 2020's economic storm better than anywhere else.

Though Sweden was not immune to the pandemic's economic impact, it was the only major economy to grow in the first quarter of the year.

www.businessinsider.com

Coronavirus: Immunity may be more widespread than tests suggest

A Swedish study found twice as many people had protective T-cells as tested positive for antibodies.

www.bbc.com

Sweden COVID-19 studies: Ongoing infection, Antibody tests in blood donors - Outbreak News Today

By NewsDesk @infectiousdiseasenews The Swedish Public Health Authority released the results of the second national survey of ongoing infection with a total of 2,933 participants, which showed an estimated 0.3 percent of the population had an ongoing infection with COVID-19 when the samples were...

outbreaknewstoday.com

 

[August_West]

so if we taxed people more they couldn't afford to go to starbucks and drink 3000 calories a day and they would be healthier...makes sense to me. If US News published it then it must impact my life. Just curious, how much time have you spent in Sweden?

A little bit. My grandfather born there.

also do you understand progressive tax rates?

 

[Waquoit]

For contact tracing it appears it happened either in Atlanta or Philly.

The virus runs strong in Hot 'Lanta. Wasn't just last week an entire Atlanta plane caught it?

 

[Peacefrog]

They've been all over the map on antibodies, they said 1 out of 5 had antibodies in May and then something like 6% had antibodies in June. We still don't know how long antibodies cover you and we seem to have no clue on herd immunity whether it takes the 60-70% we always heard about or it's more like 20% that gives a serious type of herd immunity where not many people are getting the virus anymore. What we do know is Sweden isn't getting many cases anymore and their daily deaths are in the single digits now and have been for a while. They screwed up like we screwed up with nursing homes, over 50% of their Covid deaths came from these facilities but they have lived their lives, their economy is better off than anywhere else, their kids have been educated (schools remained open and there is no known problems associated with that) their hospitals were never taxed. Things can change but I do know I would way rather be in their position right now than ours.

***********************************************************************

You yourself are pointing out that we might not fully understand the whole antibody thing so it is probably a bit reckless to proclaim they have achieved herd immunity in Sweden. I'll say it again and you haven't presented any data to refute this: their neighboring countries have equally low death and case rates and definitely don't have any degree of herd immunity. Why would this lead you to believe the Swedish approach has led to protection? It seems more likely that the reason is because they have increased social distancing and decreased social interactions by 70% as I showed. The Swedes are doing many of things voluntarily that we are struggling to get our populace to do by mandate. And your continued claim about their economy doing better then everyone else just isn't true. As I showed, their economy is shrinking just as much as their neighbors and their unemployment is higher. I think we're going to just have to agree to disagree.

 

[NJHusky]

C'mon don't be daft. The 25 kids get on a bus with 100 others and the entire thing is comparable to a slow-cooked stew over 8hrs versus an individually wrapped, separate 30* minutes in and out of Home Depot.

I'm masked throughout and cleaning hands immediately after every time into a store, most clerks similarly masked, often behind plexiglass and wearing gloves. To get the same situation at schools that'd translate to 32 handwashings a day, non-stop masking, no eating or drinking, constant trips outside for every person in a school and teachers would have to be gowned & outfitted with N95 masks like hospital workers.

Just like most offices, schools are trying to find new safe ways to operate which likely means <50% capacity. Those thoughtfully working on all of the protocols are trying.

*It should take <15 but I've never been able to get in and out of that place quickly.

point was to show that everyone seems to be concerned about teachers but other less essential people are exposed to lots of people more like to be spreaders than children but it's not an issue because we all want to go to home depot and the liquor store

 

[superjohn]

View attachment 57096

There is nothing I have to refute and I never proclaimed they had herd immunity. I refuted that they have seen no economic advantage with remaining open because that's just not true.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I disagree, I think kids not being in school for this prolonged amount of time is creating a lost generation of kids. They aren't being educated and socialized, physical and sexual abuse is way up. They aren't really dying from the virus but children are by far the biggest casualty of the virus.

There won’t be any socializing at school either with kids in 6 foot bubbles

 

[Peacefrog]

There is nothing I have to refute and I never proclaimed they had herd immunity. I refuted that they have seen no economic advantage with remaining open because that's just not true.

Sorry, I interpreted your comments about death rates, antibodies etc... to be about something other than the economy for which I gave numbers that seem to indicate they are doing no better than their Nordic neighbors. I'll let you have the last comment if you want it then we should probably wrap this up.

 

[superjohn]

Sorry, I interpreted your comments about death rates, antibodies etc... to be about something other than the economy for which I gave numbers that seem to indicate they are doing no better than their Nordic neighbors. I'll let you have the last comment if you want it then we should probably wrap this up.

I'm good.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

The fact there are still people comparing this to the Flu is all you need to see. A friend I have known for 40 years just returned home after 98 days...98. About 60 of those on a ventilator. He suffered failure in both his liver and at least one kidney. He is an Army Vet and strong as a prized ox, or he was. He is only 49, but hey.....he survived, right?

 

[superjohn]

The fact there are still people comparing this to the Flu is all you need to see. A friend I have known for 40 years just returned home after 98 days...98. About 60 of those on a ventilator. He suffered failure in both his liver and at least one kidney. He is an Army Vet and strong as a prized ox, or he was. He is only 49, but hey.....he survived, right?

Has anyone compared the virus to the flu on this board? There are lunatics on the internet who think it's comparable to the flu and a hoax but I haven't seen anyone compare it to the flu. The only time myself and others have brought up the flu is to say it's more deadly for children than this virus is and it's done in context of how can our kids be safely educated. I don't know the other major killers of children but we have readily available numbers for the flu.

 

[Travelman6]

Thanks Joe...but some of us don't agree...The Personal Income tax rate in Sweden stands at 57.20 percent. Personal Income Tax reached an all time high of 61.40 percent in 1996

And this means what? There is plenty of data and info that clearly shows that countries like Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Denmark, Austria, Netherlands, Canada, and New Zealand enjoy a superior quality of life to the usa. Perhaps the same can even be said for Australia, Singapore, France and, Japan. I know/have met several ppl from all of those countries, never heard a single complaint. A slightly higher tax rate means very little if you know you won't be fiscally ruined or die just because someone rear-ends you or you get cancer or if, god forbid, you lose your job and need support while finding a new place of employment in the meantime or just some time to get healthy. In the USA the large majority of ppl are one missed paycheck away from financial ruin and there is limited, if no, social safety net, especially if you get a sudden injury or illness. But lets put Sweden on blast, ya...

 

[MilliniumPrince]

Has anyone compared the virus to the flu on this board? There are lunatics on the internet who think it's comparable to the flu and a hoax but I haven't seen anyone compare it to the flu. The only time myself and others have brought up the flu is to say it's more deadly for children than this virus is and it's done in context of how can our kids be safely educated. I don't know the other major killers of children but we have readily available numbers for the flu.

Yes

We also don't know for sure this isn't as deadly for children. Most the children in the Industrialized world have beed sequestered at home during the pandemic. We won't know what this means for children until we see them in their normal routine for several months. But I hope you are correct.

But "survival" may not be a pretty picture for a six year old who ends up with lingering, if not, lifelong effects due to covid-19. We should have had a coordinated national response. We could have gotten ahead of those thing, and then made some decisions about getting back to normal. But now, we are going to simply roll the dice and hope for the best with the nation's children and educators.