B1G TV Negotiations

[whaler11]

Tend to agree. I think the pool of potential B1G candidates has shrunk considerably. Texas, Notre Dame, UNC, and UVA. I think that B1G ADs would consider two more schools if paired up with a "grand prize" candidate: Oklahoma with Texas; Florida State with UNC. OU has very poor academic metrics though and that would be a stretch consideration for B1G Presidents to swallow. FSU is in better shape academically than OU and would give B1G ADs the football recruiting ground to salivate over, but they wouldn't be continuous if paired with UNC.

At the end of the day, I think the B1G will just stick to the 4: Texas, ND, UNC and UVA. But probably not until this new FOX deal expires.

UNC and Texas have no reason to bring OU or FSU.

I don't think the Big Ten would consider FSU. I don't think OU has the academics and they don't move the needle financially.

Gun to my head right now I'd say it's only 50/50 they expand by 2025. Someone is going to have to figure out how to monetize streaming outside of television contracts otherwise leagues will be looking to contract not expand.

It's going to have to be a big delta to move UNC or Texas or UVA because they would much rather stay where they. UNC and Texas are dominant alphas where they have disproportinate amounts of power. That is hard to walk away from to join a very different culture.

ND I don't think will ever join the Big Ten. Fishy is right Duke could be in a conversation.

I don't think the money to move them past 16 will be there though.

To me it's 50/50 they do nothing.
35% it's UNC & UVA/GTech
15% it's UNC & Texas

 

[djct1999]

Duke, post Coach K, won't even be an after thought.

 

[B1GOSU]

The ACC was stupid when it came to expansion. Adding private schools and schools in states within the footprint where an ACC team already in existence. The B1G knew why adding Rutgers was important. The ACC could have had Rutgers ten years ago. It went with Boston College instead. Had the ACC added Rutgers and looked at a TV network back when BTN started, Maryland might still be in the ACC today. Losing the state of MD was a death nail to any possible ACC Network. Louisville adds no support there. Nor do Pittsburgh or Syracuse.

 

[B1GOSU]

ESPN, Fox to reportedly pay Big Ten $2.64B: What's Rutgers' take?

 

[CoastAtlantic]

If there's any upside for UConn in this it is that those in ACC country can finally drop the fantasy of pulling in a State Penn or even a Northwestern/Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas and start to look at this realistically. I don't think a network would be precluded with the footprint currently in place but adding a UConn would make it much easier to justify starting one. One, the school is in the same tri-state area as RU and two, has a more successful program to profit off of.

Speaking of RU, they are sure getting ripped off right now. But on the other hand, those fans in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan would have to watch their teams play games in Piscataway for years on out.

 

[LongTimeHusky]

This is my 1st post in several decades. I've been an avid boneyard follower since its inception and have followed UConn sports for 6 decades! It amazes me how 'so many' boneyard members have become so negative that they can't see what's going on at UConn. 36000 applicants for a 3800 freshman class! Applicants from ALL 50 States and ~100 countries! That doesn't happen to a mediocre University.

President Herbst is showing excellent leadership qualities. She just put together an AD Dept. that is the most impressive I've ever seen at UConn. Plus that Dept. is staffed with excellent coaches (jury's still out on Diaco). UConn may not be in a P5 conference (now), but looks and acts like one because it IS one!!!!! There isn't a single (P5) AD that doesn't know UConn! Calhoun and Geno have made sure of that!

Lastly, the B10 will not add Texas, FSU, or GTech. They are a regional conference (look at a map) and will expand in that manner, i.e. Maryland and Rutgers. If, and that is a big IF, the B10 expands again, UVA and UConn seem to offer an attractive pair.

 

[Fishy]

You are a P5 school if your paycheck says you are.

When your network revenue is 2-5% of your competitors', you have a problem.

 

[BUConn10]

We are legit so duckked. All this shows me is that the B10 just announced they have zero incentive to expand for anyone not the caliber of a Texas or Oklahoma, sure as hell wont be expanding for the likes of UConn and Kansas, etc. Thats just chump change at this point, the money they are making will scare the others into destroying the next weakest conference like they did the Big East and eat one another until there are maybe 3 or 4 fully saturated conferences. Winning at the national level in a major sport was fun while it lasted.

 

[HuskyV]

We are legit so duckked. All this shows me is that the B10 just announced they have zero incentive to expand for anyone not the caliber of a Texas or Oklahoma, sure as hell wont be expanding for the likes of UConn and Kansas, etc.

There will never be enough money. Eventually they will need to start paying players. TV will come up with more money. I am not sure of if or when we ever get on the main dance card. But TV will offer incentives to ad teams & create exclusivity.

 

[Fishy]

The Big Ten isn't expanding unless they can take a wrecking ball to a huge population swath - that's either Texas, Carolina/Virginia/Georgia. It's not happening with Kansas and Oklahoma - you don't do vanity projects when the ante is $50M a year.

And Texas has the LHN and gobs of money - their revenue will be close enough to $200M this year, so there's not a hell of a lot of pressure for them to give up the LHN and crawl under the BTN tent.

So let's say the Big 12 isn't the most unstable conference and now the ACC is - which I believe is true. They can sing Kumbaya all they want now, but one of them is gonna blink and then it's a foot race out. Notre Dame, UNC, UVa...someone is going to jump first.

Right now, our best bet is still the Big 12. If they had any sense, they would want to expand their footprint and population heading into their next contract negotiation. Problem - they haven't demonstrated any sense prior to now and the evidence of any such sense emerging seems confined to Oklahoma and West Virginia.

Bumpsticker version - let's see what happens this summer.

 

[The Viking]

Wonder what would have happened if the Big 12 informed ESPN and Fox a few weeks ago that they were expanding by 4, costing ESPN/Fox 1 bill.
Does ESPN still pony up the 1.2 bil to get the 6 years of B1G?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Your post is depressing. At some point it doesn't make sense to continue to participate in a spending war that we can't win. Absent a dramatic increase in revenue, it doesn't seem viable to keep chugging along to to 2027.

Not under the current conference structure. I also expect a lot of schools to make the decision to deemphasize or drop football. I think college athletics will become a niche sport. You can't contract a sport by at least 50% of the teams and not expect to lose a lot of fans. The recent Big 10 and SEC deals have effectively eliminated the G5 as even viable, and will likely eliminate the ACC or Big 12 within 10 years.

I don't know if it is even worth trying to compete for UConn.

 

[djct1999]

i am fairly certain the end game for all of this will be in the us judicial system. From states, to excluded universities, to athletes, this model won't last longer than the expiring Gor.

 

[Hoophound]

I've said this before and I'll say it again. The way to work with ESPN is the way Delaney does it. He doesn't ask ESPN who he should take, he figures it out independently. The Big 12 (and ACC) should add the schools ESPN values the most and then go to the networks and negotiate. Right now, UConn, BYU and maybe Cincy provide value. Add two of those schools and take the raise the B12 gets automatically. When it comes time to negotiate a new deal you have the most valuable schools. I assure you, ESPN is trying to preserve the strength of the AAC as a viable, competitive and borderline nationally relevant TV product for pennies on the dollar. They will not advise a network to add schools (UConn) that the AAC needs for viability. The conferences have to see through it and take the best programs on their own accord, then negotiate.

 

[Seaa Blue]

If the Big Ten presidents and chancellors are interested in a piece of New England (and I think they are), then UConn will always be in Delany's thought process.

 

[B1GOSU]

i am fairly certain the end game for all of this will be in the us judicial system. From states, to excluded universities, to athletes, this model won't last longer than the expiring Gor.

I disagree. If anything, the P5 will just break away and form their own Division. By your logic, the Universities of Maine, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, etc. would have sued a long time ago.

 

[djct1999]

I disagree. If anything, the P5 will just break away and form their own Division. By your logic, the Universities of Maine, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, etc. would have sued a long time ago.

Its cool to disagree but that is not my logic at all.

 

[B1GOSU]

If the Big Ten presidents and chancellors are interested in a piece of New England (and I think they are), then UConn will always be in Delany's thought process.

I agree 100%. I have no idea what Delany's end game is, but I'm confident he will get what he wants. He might even have a Plan A, B and C and will go with whatever one works out over the coming years. Maybe his plans include UConn and maybe they don't. I have no idea. What I do know is that Delany is a mastermind and knows what he is doing.

 

[John Greene]

Unfortunately, our only real scenarios are either the Big 12 if they expand now or the ACC if it gets pulled apart by the Big Ten in 2027. If the ACC and Big 12 both get eviscerated and form up a new misfit toy conference, I suspect we'd be left out of even that.

Have you considered changing your avatar ID from "Puncher of throats" to "Kicker of Nads"?

 

[HoopsFan21]

I disagree. If anything, the P5 will just break away and form their own Division. By your logic, the Universities of Maine, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, etc. would have sued a long time ago.

I've long thought this is the end game. The B1G and SEC breakaway to become the AFC and NFC of CFB. They'll play 10 games against conference rivals, then 2 or 3 against teams from the other league, and then have a 2 round playoff - east vs west division winners, then B1G vs. SEC for the title. They'll have their own basketball tournament before long too. The reality is the big (football) schools drive the bus and will eventually care very little about sharing a slice of the pie with the NCAA or the FGCU's of the world. Maybe instead of P2 it's more like a much more consolidated P4 of about 60 teams, but the B1G+SEC makes for a nice sized league that can operate like a professional one.

 

[FASTEDDY]

Wonder what would have happened if the Big 12 informed ESPN and Fox a few weeks ago that they were expanding by 4, costing ESPN/Fox 1 bill.
Does ESPN still pony up the 1.2 bil to get the 6 years of B1G?

In retrospect, that would have been a smart move and likely would have prevented to a HUGE ESPN CASH OUTLAY FOR THE B10 rights.

But smart and the B12 don't go hand in hand. Everyone with the exception of OK is afraid to piss off Texas and Texas doesn't; give a crap about anything 'cause they run the B12 and can always go to another league for huge money at anytime they darn want to.

I have no faith that the B12 will do anything smart for their own benefit or that of UCONN.

 

[CL82]

It's Hartford btw - maybe you heard BTN is on in Fairfield Cty already at the higher rate.

Without running any numbers - I can't imagine anywhere that doesn't deliver 5 million cable homes would have a chance - and by 2021 that's going to be really hard to do.

Average people per house hold 2.54
Average number of homes with cable 56%

So to deliver 5M cable homes you'd need an area with a population of nearly 23M people.

If that's the standard, then yeah, UConn's market wouldn't meet it, but there aren't many areas of the country that can deliver. I didn't check but I doubt the any ACC targets you listed meets that standard. For reference, NYC's population is is @8.5M.

 

[FASTEDDY]

This is my 1st post in several decades. I've been an avid boneyard follower since its inception and have followed UConn sports for 6 decades! It amazes me how 'so many' boneyard members have become so negative that they can't see what's going on at UConn. 36000 applicants for a 3800 freshman class! Applicants from ALL 50 States and ~100 countries! That doesn't happen to a mediocre University.

President Herbst is showing excellent leadership qualities. She just put together an AD Dept. that is the most impressive I've ever seen at UConn. Plus that Dept. is staffed with excellent coaches (jury's still out on Diaco). UConn may not be in a P5 conference (now), but looks and acts like one because it IS one!!!!! There isn't a single (P5) AD that doesn't know UConn! Calhoun and Geno have made sure of that!

Lastly, the B10 will not add Texas, FSU, or GTech. They are a regional conference (look at a map) and will expand in that manner, i.e. Maryland and Rutgers. If, and that is a big IF, the B10 expands again, UVA and UConn seem to offer an attractive pair.

As a proud alum of UCONN, I am so very happy to see all the tremendous progress that the university has made and the recognition and academic ranking that it has achieved (and continues to achieve).

However, the state of conference re-alignment and our small state has us behind the 8 ball pick time with seemingly little current hope in sight due to recent TV contract and Network developments.

We had a GREAT opportunity (ACC / Louisville) that we completely screwed Up. Now we are seeming with any invitation to the dance.

Part of the reason fro the huge growth at UCONN is all the athletic success and recognition that we have achieved. Unless things change quickly on the conference situation we likely wont be able to spend at the level we do now and wont achieve the athletic glory we have become accustomed to.

I know this is all fatalistic and negative but its just he way I feel right now with the way all this stuff has shaken out (completely against us in every conceivable way).

 

[uconndogs]

I've long thought this is the end game. The B1G and SEC breakaway to become the AFC and NFC of CFB. They'll play 10 games against conference rivals, then 2 or 3 against teams from the other league, and then have a 2 round playoff - east vs west division winners, then B1G vs. SEC for the title. They'll have their own basketball tournament before long too. The reality is the big (football) schools drive the bus and will eventually care very little about sharing a slice of the pie with the NCAA or the FGCU's of the world. Maybe instead of P2 it's more like a much more consolidated P4 of about 60 teams, but the B1G+SEC makes for a nice sized league that can operate like a professional one.

Could certainly happen that way. I would ask one question - why wouldn't college football fans not aligned with those conference simply choose to watch their football on Sundays? What's the attraction to NFL Light?

 

[uconndogs]

I've long thought this is the end game. The B1G and SEC breakaway to become the AFC and NFC of CFB. They'll play 10 games against conference rivals, then 2 or 3 against teams from the other league, and then have a 2 round playoff - east vs west division winners, then B1G vs. SEC for the title. They'll have their own basketball tournament before long too. The reality is the big (football) schools drive the bus and will eventually care very little about sharing a slice of the pie with the NCAA or the FGCU's of the world. Maybe instead of P2 it's more like a much more consolidated P4 of about 60 teams, but the B1G+SEC makes for a nice sized league that can operate like a professional one.

Could certainly happen that way. I would ask one question - why wouldn't college football fans not aligned with those conference simply choose to watch their football on Sundays? What's the attraction to NFL Light?

 

[CoastAtlantic]

John Ourand talks about the Big Ten’s new TV Deal and the genius of Jim Delany

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I've long thought this is the end game. The B1G and SEC breakaway to become the AFC and NFC of CFB. They'll play 10 games against conference rivals, then 2 or 3 against teams from the other league, and then have a 2 round playoff - east vs west division winners, then B1G vs. SEC for the title. They'll have their own basketball tournament before long too. The reality is the big (football) schools drive the bus and will eventually care very little about sharing a slice of the pie with the NCAA or the FGCU's of the world. Maybe instead of P2 it's more like a much more consolidated P4 of about 60 teams, but the B1G+SEC makes for a nice sized league that can operate like a professional one.

I don't know. I think we are one more major concussion study away from the AMA or a pediatric organization advising parents not to let their children play football. I think the major conferences realize this too, which is why they are looking for a bigger piece of the basketball pie.

 

[Marty Jackson]

I disagree. If anything, the P5 will just break away and form their own Division. By your logic, the Universities of Maine, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, etc. would have sued a long time ago.

I disagree with your comment. Maine, NH, and the others you mention have nothing to sue for. What have they lost. On the other hand, schools like Uconn have invested hundreds of millions in capital investments to build a FB program. The P5 has essentially taken that and decided to only share with certain schools. The point I think was that if you extrapolate this model out, you'll eventually have more Uconn's (WF, Baylor, Kansas, TT) that have been pushed out in the name of Conference Realignment.

As you start to get state universities involved, (like Utah), the chance for legislative action increases. A school like Kansas that has invested hundreds of millions to compete at the P5 level, suddenly finding their take has been relegated to G5 status so schools like Texas and OU can double their revenue...

v

 

[huskymedic]

The Big Ten has reportedly finished another massive TV deal. Here's what it means for everybody.

 

[WhartonHusky]

The Big Ten isn't expanding unless they can take a wrecking ball to a huge population swath - that's either Texas, Carolina/Virginia/Georgia. It's not happening with Kansas and Oklahoma - you don't do vanity projects when the ante is $50M a year.

And Texas has the LHN and gobs of money - their revenue will be close enough to $200M this year, so there's not a hell of a lot of pressure for them to give up the LHN and crawl under the BTN tent.

So let's say the Big 12 isn't the most unstable conference and now the ACC is - which I believe is true. They can sing Kumbaya all they want now, but one of them is gonna blink and then it's a foot race out. Notre Dame, UNC, UVa...someone is going to jump first.

Right now, our best bet is still the Big 12. If they had any sense, they would want to expand their footprint and population heading into their next contract negotiation. Problem - they haven't demonstrated any sense prior to now and the evidence of any such sense emerging seems confined to Oklahoma and West Virginia.

Bumpsticker version - let's see what happens this summer.

I agree with Fishy that ACC is next in the cross hairs and one of the schools mentioned will likely blink at some point. If/when that happens, it would seem to be that UConn is the 1st and perhaps only real option to backfill. I realize that ACC lacks a network, but that doesn't always need to be the case.

The ACC league office better have done all the analysis so they have a plan when it's time to break the glass.