B1G & SEC non-committal on CFP future | Page 3 | The Boneyard

B1G & SEC non-committal on CFP future

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Well, it's official.


Highlights....

The memorandum of understanding guarantees that the field will have at least 12 teams in 2026 and beyond, but sources indicate there is a strong preference for a 14-team field that includes the five highest-ranked conference champions and the next nine highest-ranked teams. Sources caution the exact format is not done yet, and the Big Ten and SEC will have the bulk of control over that, but others will be protected by parameters that have been put in place that can't be altered.

The commissioners and Notre Dame agreed that the conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion would earn a playoff berth, and Notre Dame will have protections that will survive regardless of the ultimate format. With those iron-clad guarantees, the other commissioners and Notre Dame leadership surrendered the bulk of the control over the ultimate format to the SEC and Big Ten as "part of the give-and-take," according to a source.

The financial distribution for the expected 14-team playoff will look radically different that its playoff predecessor. On an annual basis, for example, the Big Ten and SEC will be making more than $21 million per school, a number that's up from the nearly $5.5 million the Power Five leagues are currently being paid.

In the ACC, the schools will get more than $13 million annually and the Big 12 will get more than $12 million per school. Notre Dame is expected to get more than $12 million as well, and sources tell ESPN there will be a financial incentive for any independent team that reaches the CFP. (There will no longer be a participation bonus for any of the other leagues - a detail that was frustrating to some leaders in the Group of 5.)

The Group of Five schools' annual payment will increase to just under $1.8 million from the current $1.5 million. According to multiple sources, American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco was the most outspoken critic of the plan but wasn't able to garner enough support from other commissioners to fight it.

The vast disparity in revenue from top to bottom has already elicited discontent and pushback from schools outside of the Big Ten and SEC. To help alleviate some of those concerns, sources said a "look-in" clause for 2028 has been added to give the commissioners and Notre Dame leadership a chance to reevaluate the contractual agreements based on how every league has performed to that point. There's also a clause that permits that timeline to be accelerated if there is "material realignment" again.
 
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Other highlights from this article......

There is an additional performance bonus available only to independents for making the CFP field; Notre Dame would receive an additional $6 million for making the Playoff, putting its payout within striking distance of the Big Ten and SEC in those years.


Percentages:

B1G - 29%
SEC - 29%
ACC - 17% (my prediction: will be lowered after they are plundered by the B1G and SEC)
Big 12 - 15%
Group of 5 - 9%
Independents, FCS, etc. - 1%


Other comparisons:

B1G and SEC - over $21 million per school
Notre Dame (in years it makes the CFP) - over $18 million
ACC (for now) - over $13 million per school
Big 12 - over $12 million per school
Notre Dame (in years it does not make the CFP) - over $12 million
Group of 5 - just under $1.8 million

I'm assuming UConn (and Washington State and Oregon State) will also receive just under $1.8 million each, but I can't find that written anywhere as of yet.
 

"According to Pac-12 sources, Washington State and Oregon State are slated to earn just $360,000 as independents in the new contract -- just one-fifth of what the Group of 5 schools would make per year in the new agreement."

So unless UConn joins a conference, our CFP payment will be $360k? Guessing we're going to join a conference, then.
 

"According to Pac-12 sources, Washington State and Oregon State are slated to earn just $360,000 as independents in the new contract -- just one-fifth of what the Group of 5 schools would make per year in the new agreement."

So unless UConn joins a conference, our CFP payment will be $360k? Guessing we're going to join a conference, then.

Easier said than done. The best-case scenario is an invite to the ACC after the big brands leave, or the Big 12 decides to go after northeast basketball. Next best would be a football-only invite to the American. The Mountain West (likely new PAC-12) football only invite would be the next best option. The MAC has already been on record as not wanting football-only members. They kicked out UMass as a football only member because of that, only for UMass to agree to join in all sports a decade later. I have no idea where Conference USA or the Sun Belt stand on football only members. Sun Belt football would be more exciting out of those two options.
 
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Here's a question I can't find an answer to yet..........

Let's say Notre Dame qualifies for the CFP. They earn $6 million in additional revenue for that. Where does that $6 million come from? Does ESPN pay extra in those years? Is it taken from others and redistributed to Notre Dame? The same question for paying Washington State, Oregon State and UConn if they join a conference........Where does the extra money come from to go from paying them $360,000 as independents to the nearly $1.8 million a year if they join the G5 or $12/$13 million if they join the Big 12/ACC?
 
Okay, so basically we get enough to buy lunch through a vending machine.

 
Easier said than done. The best-case scenario is an invite to the ACC after the big brands leave, or the Big 12 decides to go after northeast basketball. Next best would be a football-only invite to the American. The Mountain West (likely new PAC-12) football only invite would be the next best option. The MAC has already been on record as not wanting football-only members. They kicked out UMass as a football only member because of that, only for UMass to agree to join in all sports a decade later. I have no idea where Conference USA or the Sun Belt stand on football only members. Sun Belt football would be more exciting out of those two options.
UConn football only now vs UMass football only a decade ago is not terribly comparable
 

"According to Pac-12 sources, Washington State and Oregon State are slated to earn just $360,000 as independents in the new contract -- just one-fifth of what the Group of 5 schools would make per year in the new agreement."

So unless UConn joins a conference, our CFP payment will be $360k? Guessing we're going to join a conference, then.
is it true that indie schools are getting less than G5 schools?
 
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Yes, by about $1.5M annually
ok, i kind of assumed with the numbers flying around that'd be an equal share and that the division through just hadn't been done.
 
The B1G and SEC want the conferences to handle everything for the members. This doesn’t work when there are independents floating around. The reduced payouts for the independents is likely to discourage anyone from becoming an independent and to drive the current independents into the conference structure.
 
The B1G and SEC want the conferences to handle everything for the members. This doesn’t work when there are independents floating around. The reduced payouts for the independents is likely to discourage anyone from becoming an independent and to drive the current independents into the conference structure.

How many "UConn is going to die" posts a day to people need from Rufus to get his point? I need zero. How about everyone else?
 
How many "UConn is going to die" posts a day to people need from Rufus to get his point? I need zero. How about everyone else?

So you don't think this structure is to eliminate all independents and force teams to join conferences?
 
So you don't think this structure is to eliminate all independents and force teams to join conferences?
I don’t think they care.

The only independent they worry about is Notre Dame and they’re giving Notre Dame a bigger share. If Washington State, Oregon State and UConn want to take less money or if no conference is willing to add them and dilute their own limited payout they’re not going to lose sleep over it.
 
So you don't think this structure is to eliminate all independents and force teams to join conferences?
Well its certainly designed to discourage independents. And I think that is perhaps smart in the big picture view. They don't want more programs jumping in from FCS that cannot at least get a conf invite. We are a unique animal - arrived at independence a different way.
 
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So we are now alone as the lowest paid participant in the CFP system. Gotta think a conference move is coming?
 
Why?
As the tweet says, Oregon State and Washington State renegotiated their payout to be $3.6mil. True independents will only get $350k. We are the only true independent left. So we are alone at $350k.
 

The new SEC and B1G were pretty close to even in terms of number of draft picks in the NFL.

The new 16-team SEC had 73 picks. The new 18-team B1G had 69 picks.
 
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So we are now alone as the lowest paid participant in the CFP system. Gotta think a conference move is coming?

Difference between g5 pay and our pay isn't even enough to pay the FB HC salary.
 
The SEC and B1G are creating brutal schedules for their teams through realignment.

Consider this...........

USC was voted as having the toughest schedule in the B1G for 2024, yet USC does not play arguably the top two teams in the conference - Ohio State and Oregon.

Can you imagine having the toughest schedule in your conference and not playing the top two teams in the conference? It's going to be interesting to see how this all plays out, but it's also why these conferences will dominate the at-large picks for the CFP.

 
The SEC and B1G are creating brutal schedules for their teams through realignment.

Consider this...........

USC was voted as having the toughest schedule in the B1G for 2024, yet USC does not play arguably the top two teams in the conference - Ohio State and Oregon.

Can you imagine having the toughest schedule in your conference and not playing the top two teams in the conference? It's going to be interesting to see how this all plays out, but it's also why these conferences will dominate the at-large picks for the CFP.

It would be smart to add schools like UConn and Kansas. Add to the football Ws and yet also finally bring some legit college basketball chops to a struggling field. They got the power football they need already.
 
It would be smart to add schools like UConn and Kansas. Add to the football Ws and yet also finally bring some legit college basketball chops to a struggling field. They got the power football they need already.

I think basketball is currently undervalued in conference payouts. Once everything is hashed out with football rules, I think basketball is next on the docket. How much money can an expanded March Madness bring in, especially if the NCAA is pushed out of the equation? Maybe not as valuable as football, but definitely much more valuable than today.

And if it does prove valuable enough for the B1G, then UConn, Kansas, Arizona, UNC, Duke, and Syracuse all have to be potential expansion targets. Right now, only UNC makes that list.

So far, only Maryland and UCLA have been additions benefitting basketball for the B1G, and that was more coincidental than intentional.
 
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