Athletic Has UConn preseason #2 in Big East

[Tenspro2002]

This is one of the reasons I think Akok can seize the starting 4 spot. I do think Jackson will improve his outside shooting, so it’s way too soon to assume he will be what he was last year. I love what Whaley brings us, but he’s limited.

Quite frankly(TM), I'm not convinced that Whaley can't be that guy. He had a nice-looking stroke on some outside shots last year But we need to see it, and he needs to be enough of a threat to draw the defense.

The bottom line is, if Jackson isn't at least a 30% 3-point shooter on decent volume, then whoever is alongside him at the 4 has to be, whether that's Akok, Martin, Whaley, or Polley.

 

[UConnStats]

3pt% defense rank from Torvik...

2021: #90
2020: #163
2019: #117

at URI
2018: #67
2017: #5
2016: #96
2015: #2
2014: #2
2013: #191

Something this doesn't account for is volume of 3 pt shots taken. I'm not sure if anywhere has % and # taken adjusted anywhere? @UConnStats ??

Defending the 3 and erasing 2 pt shots at the rim are obviously the most important aspects of defense

But it's interesting that Hurley's teams were WAY better at defending the 3 at URI. I would imagine that has a little bit to do with the level of competition (and the fact that the NBE has some ridiculously good 3 point shooting teams), but this is also what Hurley keeps talking about... our team is still developing a culture and learning how to play his kind of defense.

From what I've seen... just an eye test... Hurley isn't going to be the kind of coach that totally sells out on stopping the 3 wholly, at least at UConn. Not in the way he obviously was at URI. We're not chasing everyone under the sun off the line. It seems like the guys are supposed to have a lot of film work done pre-game so they can prioritize shooters. It takes a pretty high BBQ to be able to play our defense IMO. Guys need to know their matchups and switches, and especially the 3/4 is tasked with being really aggressive in the help when we're blitzing screens on the top. Not easy to pull off.

It makes sense... having a super aggressive defense was a way for URI to mix it up vs better teams outside of the A10. We have the talent to balance our defense a bit more.

Don’t know of a site that has a weighted metric like that that, but as you alluded to, a big part of our success defending the 3 is limiting attempts (27th, 11th, and 52nd this year). I do think having such undersized/non-physical backcourts has limited his UConn teams. We’ve had mostly tiny PGs or finesse/thin guards here. I know Fatts was tiny too, but he’s a special defender for his size.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Quite frankly(TM), I'm not convinced that Whaley can't be that guy. He had a nice-looking stroke on some outside shots last year But we need to see it, and he needs to be enough of a threat to draw the defense.

The bottom line is, if Jackson isn't at least a 30% 3-point shooter on decent volume, then whoever is alongside him at the 4 has to be, whether that's Akok, Martin, Whaley, or Polley.

Agreed. I don't agree with @husky429 on having real quality shooters so many spots. You just have to be good enough that they need to come guard you. I think Jackson can get there. I think Whaley can get there. I'm confident Akok is better than that 30% now. Martin is for sure. I'm not worried about it really. I am very opposed to Polley at the 4, he's been terrible at it whenever he's done it. Whatever deficiencies he has as a rebounder and defender at the 3, are much worse as a 4.

As for Akok vs Whaley, I simply think Akok is the better player, or should be. Faster, longer, better shot blocker, better able to defend bigger guys in the post, better shooter and ball handler. But we need both of them making major contributions. Having Akok at the 4 is especially helpful when Whaley is a 5 because he vacates the paint so frequently.

In short, it is a good problem to have.

 

[MU in MKE]

Yeah, I was just looking the other day. Barring an exodus of transferss, I think 2023 might be the year that the NBE could have 5+ teams playing in March.

wut??

5 is the general minimum in a bad year. Last year was the worst year of the conference since the reformation which followed the best year of the post-reformation where 8 teams were in the discussion of making the tournament until the very end of the season. Literally every team in the conference received AP votes during the 19-20 season and 7 teams were likely going to the tourney (just like 2 years prior).


My prediction this year:

Nova, UConn, Xavier, Hall will all make the tournament.

Prov, MU, Butler, Georgetown all have a shot as well, but more likely only 1 of 4 will make it.


I say with confidence though, that 5-6 teams will make it this year, even though the conference is still in a slump since the 19-20 season.

 

[freescooter]

3 teams make it. Unless there is another Georgetown style run but I don’t see that. This league is a mile wide and an inch deep. Villanova at the top and 5 guys named Moe after that. None of them are that good. I think we are probably the best so I like our chances to make the tourney but we lack the talent to go very far which makes us a very typical New Big East team. Good little teams, can give anybody a run on any given night but not talented enough to do it more than once.

 

[freescooter]

Conference is not particularly good, is it? I mean if Villanova didn't have its fifth year seniors returning there'd be no top 15 teams. Yikes

Duh! It is Villanova and 10 interchangeable parts.

 

[bendm]

This is only slightly less wrong than having them 10th.

hall is a tourney team so their floor is 4 or 5. have you even looked at their roster? cale, aiken, rhoden, and obiagu are all back. richmond, yetna, and harris transferred in, plus a top 80 recruit in weston. that's a quality top 8 with a lot of experience.

 

[Doctor Hoop]

Agreed. I don't agree with @husky429 on having real quality shooters so many spots. You just have to be good enough that they need to come guard you. I think Jackson can get there. I think Whaley can get there. I'm confident Akok is better than that 30% now. Martin is for sure. I'm not worried about it really. I am very opposed to Polley at the 4, he's been terrible at it whenever he's done it. Whatever deficiencies he has as a rebounder and defender at the 3, are much worse as a 4.

As for Akok vs Whaley, I simply think Akok is the better player, or should be. Faster, longer, better shot blocker, better able to defend bigger guys in the post, better shooter and ball handler. But we need both of them making major contributions. Having Akok at the 4 is especially helpful when Whaley is a 5 because he vacates the paint so frequently.

In short, it is a good problem to have.

I agree, it's a good problem to have. But I'll disagree politely on Whaley vs. Akok. Maybe Akok should be better, but as it stands that's not the case. Whaley is a great defender both on the perimeter and in the paint. He is a little shorter, but has long arms and great timing. Akok is also very good in the paint, but we'll have to see how he hedges and disrupts on the perimeter, which Whaley does exceptionally well. Whaley also makes his shots inside, has good strong hands grabbing rebounds on both ends, and can hit out to the 3 point line - so much so that the coaches wanted him shooting those more. If you're right, then we're blessed with two very dangerous players that can play 4 or 5 depending on matchups.

 

[Umami Zen]

I agree, it's a good problem to have. But I'll disagree politely on Whaley vs. Akok. Maybe Akok should be better, but as it stands that's not the case. Whaley is a great defender both on the perimeter and in the paint. He is a little shorter, but has long arms and great timing. Akok is also very good in the paint, but we'll have to see how he hedges and disrupts on the perimeter, which Whaley does exceptionally well. Whaley also makes his shots inside, has good strong hands grabbing rebounds on both ends, and can hit out to the 3 point line - so much so that the coaches wanted him shooting those more. If you're right, then we're blessed with two very dangerous players that can play 4 or 5 depending on matchups.

Doctor H.. Speaking of AA.. Are you encouraged by some of DH's recent comments about his apparent readiness? Or is it about the timeline you expected with his injury?

Not trying to derail thread but your medical insight is always educational.

He can be a major contributor this season if approaching his pre-injury mobility on both O and D.

 

[Doctor Hoop]

Doctor H.. Speaking of AA.. Are you encouraged by some of DH's recent comments about his apparent readiness? Or is it about the timeline you expected with his injury?

Not trying to derail thread but your medical insight is always educational.

He can be a major contributor this season if approaching his pre-injury mobility on both O and D.

Thanks. He’s got a very good chance of being back to his bouncy self, if they’ve got his legs built back up. It will have been 18 months since the injury by fall. There’s a lot of atrophied muscle to rebuild, but that should be enough time to get that back and train the quick-twitch necessary.

What is harder is not playing in games for 18 months. That will take more time, the game will seem too fast for him at first. I’d expect after the first 10 games he’ll be where we would all like him.

 

[Fatroony5]

Thanks. He’s got a very good chance of being back to his bouncy self, if they’ve got his legs built back up. It will have been 18 months since the injury by fall. There’s a lot of atrophied muscle to rebuild, but that should be enough time to get that back and train the quick-twitch necessary.

What is harder is not playing in games for 18 months. That will take more time, the game will seem too fast for him at first. I’d expect after the first 10 games he’ll be where we would all like him.

It’s encouraging to see Kevin Durant and Breanna Stewart playing at an elite level 2 years removed from their respective injuries. They’re the closest I can think of in terms of similar body composition to AA that sustained the same injury in recent years. Excited to see how he plays and how he looks physically this year, I think we’ll see him round into form as the season progresses.

 

[bendm]

wut??

5 is the general minimum in a bad year. Last year was the worst year of the conference since the reformation which followed the best year of the post-reformation where 8 teams were in the discussion of making the tournament until the very end of the season. Literally every team in the conference received AP votes during the 19-20 season and 7 teams were likely going to the tourney (just like 2 years prior).


My prediction this year:

Nova, UConn, Xavier, Hall will all make the tournament.

Prov, MU, Butler, Georgetown all have a shot as well, but more likely only 1 of 4 will make it.


I say with confidence though, that 5-6 teams will make it this year, even though the conference is still in a slump since the 19-20 season.

i'm happy with an average of 5.5 teams in per year

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

I agree, it's a good problem to have. But I'll disagree politely on Whaley vs. Akok. Maybe Akok should be better, but as it stands that's not the case. Whaley is a great defender both on the perimeter and in the paint. He is a little shorter, but has long arms and great timing. Akok is also very good in the paint, but we'll have to see how he hedges and disrupts on the perimeter, which Whaley does exceptionally well. Whaley also makes his shots inside, has good strong hands grabbing rebounds on both ends, and can hit out to the 3 point line - so much so that the coaches wanted him shooting those more. If you're right, then we're blessed with two very dangerous players that can play 4 or 5 depending on matchups.

Having them both on the floor with RJ and AJ can be a nightmare for teams offenses… The more and more I think about it this season will really rest on just how good AJ can be. If he can be the go to go like Bouknight was that opens up so many things we’ll be able to do offensively and defensively. I’m hoping for a Rudy Gay type of year from him where he does a little bit of everything.

 

[Doctor Hoop]

Having them both on the floor with RJ and AJ can be a nightmare for teams offenses… The more and more I think about it this season will really rest on just how good AJ can be. If he can be the go to go like Bouknight was that opens up so many things we’ll be able to do offensively and defensively. I’m hoping for a Rudy Gay type of year from him where he does a little bit of everything.

He has a very good handle for a guy his size, his athleticism is out of this world, and he sees the floor. But I think expecting him, like Bouknight, to create his own shot either getting all the way to the hole or knocking down pullups and stepbacks is a tall order, considering his offensive limitations last year. He needs to be a slasher off the wing, and reliably knock down 15-18 footers when open, and both of those opportunities should be mostly off the ball.

 

[Rich]

I have a hard enough time keeping track of the players on our roster. I can't cope with 10 other teams, LOL. Plus the transfer portal means that all of this will change next season anyway. I've moved from reading these summaries with a fine tooth comb to skimming them for high level truly important stuff.

I truly miss the days when these kids stuck around for 3-4 years; Mutombo, Mourning, Tate, Cliff, Hamilton, Mike Williams at P.C., Zendon Hamilton, Felipe Lopez, Shaheen Holloway, Rony Seikaly.....

 

[Storrs South]

I truly miss the days when these kids stuck around for 3-4 years; Mutombo, Mourning, Tate, Cliff, Hamilton, Mike Williams at P.C., Zendon Hamilton, Felipe Lopez, Shaheen Holloway, Rony Seikaly.....

Given the current environment of college basketball, it's crazy to note that since 2016, UConn has had only two players leave without spending a minimum 3 years in Storrs and those were Javonte Brown & Kwintin Williams (excludes grad transfers and NBA draft picks, Sid Wilson & Terry Larrier only played two seasons but were in Storrs for three).

The last time UConn lost a quality player due to transferring was the KO years in 2017 with the mass exodus of Vance, Enoch, and Durham (also MAL decomitting).

It speaks volumes about what Hurley is building at UConn.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

He has a very good handle for a guy his size, his athleticism is out of this world, and he sees the floor. But I think expecting him, like Bouknight, to create his own shot either getting all the way to the hole or knocking down pullups and stepbacks is a tall order, considering his offensive limitations last year. He needs to be a slasher off the wing, and reliably knock down 15-18 footers when open, and both of those opportunities should be mostly off the ball.

I agree for the most part. I would expect someone with his size and athleticism to be able to get to the hole with a year of training. I guess my comparison would be Kemba’s sophomore year when he went from only being able to drive to being able to drive and make the occasional 3 as well. With all of Andre’s talents his development as a scorer is crucial because he has the tools to be THE offense. Can’t have a passer like with the athleticism he was playing off the ball as a spot up shooter. Seems like a waste. But it’s on him to make that jump.

He made some beautiful drives to the rim last year with some sweet finishes. Would mostly just like to see that on a consistent basis. He’s way too talented not to be able to.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Given the current environment of college basketball, it's crazy to note that since 2016, UConn has had only two players leave without spending a minimum 3 years in Storrs and those were Javonte Brown & Kwintin Williams (excludes grad transfers and NBA draft picks, Sid Wilson & Terry Larrier only played two seasons but were in Storrs for three).

The last time UConn lost a quality player due to transferring was the KO years in 2017 with the mass exodus of Vance, Enoch, and Durham (also MAL decomitting).

It speaks volumes about what Hurley is building at UConn.

Ollie’s biggest failure here was player retention. He couldn’t pay guys to stay. It’s refreshing to see Hurley having to kick guys like Bouknight out the door and getting all his seniors back compared to Ollie having guys like DHam leave before they’re ready and a whole freshman class of bigs transfer out with nothing but PT in front of them.

 

[MU in MKE]

Given the current environment of college basketball, it's crazy to note that since 2016, UConn has had only two players leave without spending a minimum 3 years in Storrs and those were Javonte Brown & Kwintin Williams (excludes grad transfers and NBA draft picks, Sid Wilson & Terry Larrier only played two seasons but were in Storrs for three).

The last time UConn lost a quality player due to transferring was the KO years in 2017 with the mass exodus of Vance, Enoch, and Durham (also MAL decomitting).

It speaks volumes about what Hurley is building at UConn.

I think this is an extremely telling statistic and one that people will take note of more and more now that the world of transfers is changing so drastically. Even without the COVID rules change, not many players were sitting in the last couple years. The coaches that can retain the most players for the longest period of time are going to have a huge advantage. Obviously, they'll still need to be a good coach as well, but this new dynamic will play very large dividends.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

I agree. I can't see Seton Hall finishing any lower than fourth.

My tiers:

#1: Nova
#2-#5: Xavier, UConn, Seton Hall, Georgetown
#6-#8: Marquette, Creighton, Butler
#9-#10: Providence, St. John's
#11: DePaul

Yes, Butler has a lot of players returning, but this was a 10-15 team last year. I believe in Chuck Harris but with his awful outside shooting, I see Aaron Thompson as a net negative player and personally, if I were a Butler fan, I'd be happier if he didn't return for a fifth year to allow a starting five of Tate, Harris, Bolden, Nze and Golden.

I predict teams #1-#4 make the tournament.

New tiers after Garcia transferring:

#1: Nova
#2-#4: Xavier, UConn, Seton Hall,
#5-#8: Providence, Butler, Georgetown, Creighton
#9-#10: Marquette, St. John's
#11: DePaul

Trending up:

Providence: I'm calling bias in my initial ranking. Put too much stock in David Duke going pro: Yes, he was their bucket-getter, but his 38.7 fg% makes me feel his 16.8 ppg can be "replaced" with a combination Allyn Breed's potential sophomore jump (5.5 ppg last year) and Indiana transfer Al Durham coming in (11.3p, 38 3p%).

60% of their scoring returns with the help of Nate Watson (16.9p, 6.7r) and Noah Horchler (6.7p, 5.7r, 41.9 3p%) returning for their extra year. South Carolina transfer Justin Minaya (7p, 6.3r, 1.8a) is a good plug-and-play replacement for Greg Gantt (4p, 3.1r). Hate to say it, but this team is better than I originally thought.

Butler: I bumped them up from #8 to #6. Not an exciting team, but they have six seniors (four of which are super-seniors) and return 93% of their scoring. Adding to the mix is versatile 6'8 Eastern Michigan grad transfer Ty Groce (15.2p, 6.9r, 2a, 1.3s, 34 3p%) while their highest rated '20 recruit, Scooby Johnson, will make his debut after sitting out last year w/ an ACL tear. Aaron Thompson can't shoot, but he's a poised, tough leader who might be the best perimeter defender in the Big East.

Trending down:

Georgetown: I overhyped their incoming freshman class. They still can be a very good team, but they return just two players who averaged 10+ mpg last season (Dante Harris and Donald Carey). Only 27% of their scoring returns and it'll be hard to replace last year's leader Jahvon Blair (15.4 ppg) and starters Wahab and Pickett will be replaced by a freshman and two grad transfers. Will be an exciting team, though: an exciting freshman class led by Mohammed and Mutombo plus they bring in two interesting transfer pieces.

 

[glastonbury50]

New tiers after Garcia transferring:

#1: Nova
#2-#4: Xavier, UConn, Seton Hall,
#5-#8: Providence, Butler, Georgetown, Creighton
#9-#10: Marquette, St. John's
#11: DePaul

Trending up:

Providence: I'm calling bias in my initial ranking. Put too much stock in David Duke going pro: Yes, he was their bucket-getter, but his 38.7 fg% makes me feel his 16.8 ppg can be "replaced" with a combination Allyn Breed's potential sophomore jump (5.5 ppg last year) and Indiana transfer Al Durham coming in (11.3p, 38 3p%).

60% of their scoring returns with the help of Nate Watson (16.9p, 6.7r) and Noah Horchler (6.7p, 5.7r, 41.9 3p%) returning for their extra year. South Carolina transfer Justin Minaya (7p, 6.3r, 1.8a) is a good plug-and-play replacement for Greg Gantt (4p, 3.1r). Hate to say it, but this team is better than I originally thought.

Butler: I bumped them up from #8 to #6. Not an exciting team, but they have six seniors (four of which are super-seniors) and return 93% of their scoring. Adding to the mix is versatile 6'8 Eastern Michigan grad transfer Ty Groce (15.2p, 6.9r, 2a, 1.3s, 34 3p%) while their highest rated '20 recruit, Scooby Johnson, will make his debut after sitting out last year w/ an ACL tear. Aaron Thompson can't shoot, but he's a poised, tough leader who might be the best perimeter defender in the Big East.

Trending down:

Georgetown: I overhyped their incoming freshman class. They still can be a very good team, but they return just two players who averaged 10+ mpg last season (Dante Harris and Donald Carey). Only 27% of their scoring returns and it'll be hard to replace last year's leader Jahvon Blair (15.4 ppg) and starters Wahab and Pickett will be replaced by a freshman and two grad transfers. Will be an exciting team, though: an exciting freshman class led by Mohammed and Mutombo plus they bring in two interesting transfer pieces.

If champagnie comes back no way stj stays in that tier.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

I’ll believe it when I see it in a game against a real team. Too many guys have looked great in the gym in June and ended up on the bench in January.

The most time in the gym is the janitor but that don’t mean he’s helping the team win games. We’ve heard stories of off season shooting, growth and development to the “next level” for decades at UCONN that did not come close to panning out for those players. Shall we list?

A kudos for the first of you two to provide a list of 5.

Not so much doubting as challenging you both to step up in the value-added game. Let's see what you've got...

 

[BigTenFan]

Would have loved to see UConn in the Gavitt
Big Ten v Big East matchups

 

[Hey Adrien!]

New tiers after Champagnie stayed for another year @ St. John's.

#1: Nova
#2-#3: UConn, Xavier
#4-#6: St. John's, Butler, Seton Hall
#7: Providence,
#8-#9 Creighton, Georgetown
#10: Marquette
#11: DePaul

Trending up since last tiers:

St. John's: Champagnie is #1, but Posh Alexander has reportedly trimmed 15 pounds from 205 to 190. One of the better transfer classes in the country, with a five man.

Butler: I missed the fact that Bo Hodges has two more years of eligibility remaining. That makes seven of Butler's top scorers returning, fifteen total scholarship players and seven players that are are least seniors. I also expect jumps from Chuck Harris (who I love) and Myles Tate entering their sophomore years.

Trending down:

Seton Hall: I had the Hall at #4 before. I love their experience, but I'm not totally confident on who is their point guard: Is Kadary Richmond a true point guard? Jamir Harris was more of an off-guard at American, so was Aiken at Harvard.

 

[businesslawyer]

Having them both on the floor with RJ and AJ can be a nightmare for teams offenses… The more and more I think about it this season will really rest on just how good AJ can be. If he can be the go to go like Bouknight was that opens up so many things we’ll be able to do offensively and defensively. I’m hoping for a Rudy Gay type of year from him where he does a little bit of everything.

There is close to a zero per cent chance that AJ bears any resemblance whatsoever to being the go to like Bouk was this year. Seriously, I don’t even think that’s the goal of what we want from him.

If the offense has a focal point down the stretch when you need a big hoop, it’s going to come from Sanogo posting up and them good ball movement when the double team comes.