Teams are like roulette wheels, with different numbers of pockets depending on the skill of the team. A team like UConn might have a wheel with 18 pockets. A team like a mid-major might have a 36 pocket wheel. Each possession is a bet on a single number in a spin of one’s own wheel. Looked at in this manner, it is easy to see that the 18 pocket wheel is highly likely to be the money winner, but it is also obvious that the laws of probability will find the 36 pocket team a winner occasionally.
I believe research has shown that players deemed to be good in the clutch are actually no better or worse in critical moments than they are at any other time in a game. Think about it, there are no bench-riders who only come it in when that “must have” basket is required, because at other times they can’t make a shot. Allowing a perceived clutch shooter to take a shot because in two previous games they hit the shot at the buzzer, is not necessarily a valid strategy.
We lost to ND, in part, because on that particular day, we missed a bunch of 3 pointers in a row. In a task with a success rate of less than 50% on average, missing 10 in a row should occasionally be expected. Our best shooter took the shot. A good gamble.
I’m certain this isn’t a popular view. It’s so unemotional, so mathematical. Who wants to think our future is governed by a set of probabilities and not because of a heroic performance, but I believe Breanna will soon be removing another pocket from our wheel.