Are we about to go on an 8-game losing streak? | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Are we about to go on an 8-game losing streak?

JMick said:
Talk about terrible logic. "Well the program has fallen low enough that we only have an 18% chance to beat Tulsa but we almost won so we need to give the team & Ollie credit."
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I didn’t say anything about giving Ollie and the team credit. My point is that people shouldn’t act shocked and disgusted when we lose if they think we suck so bad to begin with that we should have no chance against a team like Tulsa.

I don’t think uconn is a good team but I do think we should be able to beat a lot of these teams in our conference. The conference is better but it’s still not great at all and there are games to be won.
 
Kenny11 said:
I didn’t say anything about giving Ollie and the team credit. My point is that people shouldn’t act shocked and disgusted when we lose if they think we suck so bad to begin with that we should have no chance against a team like Tulsa.

I don’t think uconn is a good team but I do think we should be able to beat a lot of these teams in our conference. The conference is better but it’s still not great at all and there are games to be won.
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I have low expectations and still somehow end up disappointed. I imagine most feel the same way. But the fact that an 0-8 stretch is reasonable right now just shows how bad of shape we are in.
 
Idk we always seem to have UCFs number. But in the past that had a lot to with Amida dominating Wacko Tacko.
 
Now that the team has figured out how not to lose with an 8 point lead in the waning minutes, the Huskies should go 6-3 in this coming stretch.
 
Matrim55 said:
Probably! Here's our upcoming schedule:

1/10: vs. UCF
1/13: @ Tulane
1/16: @ Memphis
1/20: vs. Villanova
1/25: vs. SMU
1/28: @ Temple
1/31: @ UCF
2/3: vs. Cincinnati
2/7: vs. USF

The only team worse than us on this list, going by Kenpom, is Memphis. But obviously we're playing on the road where we're a disaster, and it'll be the second straight game on the road at that. Historically, KO's teams have not done great in those situations.

My guess is we don't win another game until February 7. And I think there's a decent chance we just saw Ollie's final wins as UConn head coach.
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Except for Nova we can beat any of those teams. We won't win them all but we won't lose them all either. I'm guessing your guess is wrong.
 
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I'll be at the Tulane game, last time here was a nail bitter and Gibbs made a couple of tough 3's near end to get/keep lead. This will be part of the big UConn turnaround. No one wants to see UConn on their schedule!
 
UConnDan97 said:
We just started the first game of a 5+ game winning streak...
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KenPom puts the chances of an 8 game losing streak at 5.4%. The chances of this being the first win of a 5 game winning streak is 0.6%
 
Matrim55 said:
Probably! Here's our upcoming schedule:

1/10: vs. UCF
1/13: @ Tulane
1/16: @ Memphis
1/20: vs. Villanova
1/25: vs. SMU
1/28: @ Temple
1/31: @ UCF
2/3: vs. Cincinnati
2/7: vs. USF

The only team worse than us on this list, going by Kenpom, is Memphis. But obviously we're playing on the road where we're a disaster, and it'll be the second straight game on the road at that. Historically, KO's teams have not done great in those situations.

My guess is we don't win another game until February 7. And I think there's a decent chance we just saw Ollie's final wins as UConn head coach.
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Think we win at Memphis and Tulane, but 5 in a row seems like a lock.
 
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whaler11 said:
KenPom puts the chances of an 8 game losing streak at 5.4%. The chances of this being the first win of a 5 game winning streak is 0.6%
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What is the +/- error bar look like on both? And I wonder what the percentage of a long win streak looks like in the absence of the Nova game?

Either way, you're saying I've got a chance... ;)
 
UConnDan97 said:
What is the +/- error bar look like on both? And I wonder what the percentage of a long win streak looks like in the absence of the Nova game?

Either way, you're saying I've got a chance... ;)
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The plus or minus on it is how accurate are the KenPom game by game projections. So pretty accurate.

Your numbers on an AAC winning streak which ignores the 8% chance against Villanova:

2: 47%
3: 16%
4: 7.3%
5: 2.0%
6: 0.5%
7: 0.1%

If there is a 'must-win' to keep people from losing their minds it's Memphis on the 16th. They stink and if UConn doesn't get that one it could be a long 2.5 weeks.
 
whaler11 said:
The plus or minus on it is how accurate are the KenPom game by game projections. So pretty accurate.

Your numbers on an AAC winning streak which ignores the 8% chance against Villanova:

2: 47%
3: 16%
4: 7.3%
5: 2.0%
6: 0.5%
7: 0.1%

If there is a 'must-win' to keep people from losing their minds it's Memphis on the 16th. They stink and if UConn doesn't get that one it could be a long 2.5 weeks.
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Lots of money to be made here, my friend! I'm hoping I won't have to use the phrase "double or nothing?"
 
whaler11 said:
KenPom puts the chances of an 8 game losing streak at 5.4%. The chances of this being the first win of a 5 game winning streak is 0.6%
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giphy.gif
 
whaler11 said:
The plus or minus on it is how accurate are the KenPom game by game projections. So pretty accurate.

Your numbers on an AAC winning streak which ignores the 8% chance against Villanova:

2: 47%
3: 16%
4: 7.3%
5: 2.0%
6: 0.5%
7: 0.1%

If there is a 'must-win' to keep people from losing their minds it's Memphis on the 16th. They stink and if UConn doesn't get that one it could be a long 2.5 weeks.
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200w.gif
 
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This thread really puts our situation is perspective. I expected to finish a game under .500 but I didn't really look at the schedule. We really could finish WAY under .500. I need to go hug my kids.
 
UCweCONN said:
This thread really puts our situation is perspective. I expected to finish a game under .500 but I didn't really look at the schedule. We really could finish WAY under .500. I need to go hug my kids.
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14-17 is a very real possibility.
 
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I would like to think Uconn goes 16-15 + 1-1 in the AACT to get into the...NIT.
 
Travelman32 said:
I would like to think Uconn goes 16-15 + 1-1 in the AACT to get into the...NIT.
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I'd sign up for that in a second. Best-case scenario is we have a good NIT run in which a bunch of the freshmen blossom so KO can go out with his head held high.
 
Matrim55 said:
I'd sign up for that in a second. Best-case scenario is we have a good NIT run in which a bunch of the freshmen blossom so KO can go out with his head held high.
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It's hard to imagine that KO would be out in that circumstance unless he opted to leave on his own accord (equally doubtful given the money).

Regardless, I think seven of the eight games are winnable. Villanova could get ugly, the other teams on the schedule just aren't talented enough to be penciling in a win regardless of how bad we are. I mean, we're saying we can't beat Temple? Yes they're better than us but they also appear to be a team that decides when they want to play.

I'm too lazy to do the math but I'd be curious to know what the total number is for projected wins over the next eight. I'd guess somewhere between 2 and 3.
 
champs99and04 said:
It's hard to imagine that KO would be out in that circumstance unless he opted to leave on his own accord (equally doubtful given the money).

Regardless, I think seven of the eight games are winnable. Villanova could get ugly, the other teams on the schedule just aren't talented enough to be penciling in a win regardless of how bad we are. I mean, we're saying we can't beat Temple? Yes they're better than us but they also appear to be a team that decides when they want to play.

I'm too lazy to do the math but I'd be curious to know what the total number is for projected wins over the next eight. I'd guess somewhere between 2 and 3.
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2.26
 
Matrim55 said:
I'd sign up for that in a second. Best-case scenario is we have a good NIT run in which a bunch of the freshmen blossom so KO can go out with his head held high.
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Even when Calhoun used to make those NIT statements citing UCONN and “postseason play” I used to grit my teeth. Our highest aspiration now is an NIT bubble team. Wow.
 
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