AP Week 11

[Gael]

I'd like to compare the AP vote each week with the rankings in terms of my favorite, pace-neutral team strength stat, Adjusted Net Rating. Net Rating is defined as a team's Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) minus its Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). The offensive, defensive and net ratings are all Adjusted for the team's SOS and game location (home, away, neutral).

Here are the current top 25 teams sorted by Adjusted Net Rating (the last column on the right):

Rk	School	Conf		AP Rank	W	L	Pts	Opp	MOV		SOS		OSRS	DSRS	SRS	ORtg	DRtg	NRtg ▼
1	Connecticut	Big East		1	17	0	89.9	51.8	38.12		14.50		30.66	21.95	52.61	130.27	61.02	69.24
2	UCLA	Big Ten		3	15	1	87.1	56.6	30.44		17.49		27.39	20.54	47.92	131.78	67.13	64.65
3	South Carolina	SEC		2	17	1	89.7	53.6	36.17		10.50		28.28	18.38	46.66	124.72	65.01	59.71
4	Texas	SEC		4	18	1	90.5	53.2	37.32		9.30		27.88	18.73	46.62	125.59	65.96	59.63
5	Louisiana State	SEC		6	16	2	100.1	55.9	44.17		2.07		34.78	11.46	46.24	124.22	69.89	54.33
6	Michigan	Big Ten		8	14	2	88.9	57.8	31.13		10.62		26.26	15.49	41.74	117.90	65.87	52.03
7	Louisville	ACC		9	16	3	82.9	58.2	24.68		10.17		21.76	13.09	34.86	118.73	73.61	45.12
8	Kentucky	SEC		7	16	2	78.2	53.0	25.22		7.81		14.79	18.24	33.03	115.45	70.61	44.84
9	TCU	Big 12		10	16	1	84.3	52.1	32.24		2.30		18.55	15.99	34.54	114.66	70.11	44.54
10	Michigan State	Big Ten		15	16	1	88.5	58.2	30.29		3.91		23.76	10.44	34.20	121.34	77.20	44.14
11	Minnesota	Big Ten			12	4	76.2	51.8	24.44		6.98		13.14	18.28	31.42	112.54	69.26	43.28
12	Oklahoma	SEC		13	14	3	90.8	60.6	30.18		6.89		27.55	9.52	37.07	111.45	68.25	43.21
13	Vanderbilt	SEC		5	17	0	86.8	56.1	30.71		2.49		21.25	11.95	33.20	119.15	76.07	43.08
14	Maryland	Big Ten		12	16	2	87.0	56.8	30.22		2.85		23.78	9.29	33.07	117.36	74.44	42.92
15	Nebraska	Big Ten		24	14	3	84.4	62.2	22.12		8.65		20.63	10.14	30.77	119.41	78.75	40.66
16	Iowa	Big Ten		11	14	2	80.9	61.1	19.75		11.84		18.36	13.23	31.59	112.08	71.93	40.15
17	West Virginia	Big 12			14	3	80.0	57.9	22.06		9.17		17.54	13.68	31.23	112.97	73.24	39.73
18	Duke	ACC			11	6	74.2	62.2	11.94		18.90		16.39	14.45	30.84	110.97	71.34	39.63
19	Tennessee	SEC		20	12	3	81.3	60.5	20.80		10.56		21.08	10.28	31.36	111.57	72.11	39.45
20	Southern California	Big Ten			10	6	68.5	58.2	10.31		18.78		10.45	18.64	29.09	106.42	67.78	38.64
21	Mississippi	SEC		16	16	3	79.1	55.1	24.05		6.02		15.34	14.73	30.07	111.88	73.61	38.27
22	Oregon	Big Ten			14	4	78.4	60.5	17.89		10.85		17.37	11.37	28.74	110.11	72.78	37.32
23	NC State	ACC			12	5	76.4	63.5	12.82		16.22		18.00	11.04	29.04	111.59	74.58	37.01
24	Notre Dame	ACC		23	12	4	84.8	62.2	22.56		6.97		21.15	8.38	29.53	114.74	78.18	36.56
25	Alabama	SEC		21	17	1	73.4	53.1	20.33		6.37		11.23	15.47	26.70	109.64	73.40	36.2

 

[FanFromMaine]

Thanks.

One question: is the SOS listed here the projected end of the season figure? I ask because the ranking here for a number of teams does not seem to reflect current play.

 

[Vowelguy]

Not listed above:
14 OhioSt
17 TexTech
18 Baylor
19 IowaSt
22 Princeton
25 Illinois

 

[Phil]

The omission of Princeton doesn't bother me, their rating is suspect. I also think Texas Tech is overrated, but it's a close call whether they should be in the top 25 or not.

Ohio State is a real puzzler. 14 in AP but 8 in Massey, so I am curious what justifies them is not being in the top 25

 

[Gael]

One question: is the SOS listed here the projected end of the season figure?

The SRCBB table I posted above for all 363 DI schools can be accessed HERE. You can sort schools by any of the columns. Typically, you have to wait at least 24 hours for the AP column to update after the AP releases its Monday poll. The other columns seem to update early every morning.

SRCBB, like all computer-based rating systems, has proprietary algorithms for computing its stats. SRCBB's algorithms even try to compensate for the "rubber band effect."

Their SOS stat is based only on games played to date (not the future schedule). Each opponent is measured by SRCBB's Simple Rating System (SRS), which can also be seen in the table columns. The numerical SOS rating is denominated in points above/below average, where the average team would have a zero SOS. Zero SOS in yesterday's table would be between Colorado State and Arkansas State.

 

[Phil]

I'm new to the site so can help me out.

When you first load the page, using your link the first column is "Rk" which stands for rank. The glossary helpfully explains that but doesn't say what it's based on. I figured it out that it is sorted by the SRS column.

That ranking system as of Ohio State that position 21 while your metric of choice, net rating, has them at position 27.

While immediately conceding it isn't clear how to determine whether net rating or SRS or AP or Massey or anything else is the best without some clearly defined acceptable metric, do you know if anyone has done regression of any of these measures against end of season AP ranking?

 

[Gael]

When you first load the page, using your link the first column is "Rk" which stands for rank. The glossary helpfully explains that but doesn't say what it's based on. I figured it out that it is sorted by the SRS column.

Phil, when you first open up the SRCBB table it appears to be sorted/ranked by SRS, which is their proprietary ranking system.

If you sort by any of the other columns, the teams will be ranked by that sort.

While immediately conceding it isn't clear how to determine whether net rating or SRS or AP or Massey or anything else is the best without some clearly defined acceptable metric, do you know if anyone has done regression of any of these measures against end of season AP ranking?

Yes, there are many computer rankings, mostly using proprietary algorithms and regression analyses of various kinds. And then there are human polls. It's anyone's choice as to which to believe is the best.

The only comparison of all these ranking sites that I'm aware of is the Fun Bracket that pilight from RebKell would enter the NCAAT pool. He'd enter brackets for the final rankings in the AP poll, Coaches Poll, NET, RPI, Massey, Warren Nolan, and a bunch of the other computerized ranking sites. He'd end up with a ranked list of how each human/computer ranking site did in the empirical competition of the actual NCAAT.

He did this for decades, but RebKell is now dead, so his threads on the Fun Bracket pools are gone. In different years, I recall Sagarin and Massey each won it two or three times. In recent years I seem to recall AP and RPI winning. I suppose pilight could be contacted to get all the historical results. His website (can't link it for some reason)—search on his name plus dot x y z)—doesn't have the Fun Bracket results, but does have an email address for him.