AP Week 11

[Vowelguy]

• UC LA 7-1
• UConn 5-0
• SoCar 4-1
• Texas 4-1
• Kntky 4-2
• Louis 4-3
• L S U 3-2
• Michi 3-2
• Oh St 3-2
• MchSt 3-0 + 1 quad2 loss
• Baylr 3-3
• DukeU 3-5 + 1 quad2 loss

Fewer than 3:
#5 Vandy, #10 TCU, #11 Iowa, #12 Md, #13 Okla, #16 Miss

 

[ConnMotors]

Big question is who do we want to be the fourth #1 seed? If UConn stays #1 all four One Seeds make it to the Final Four whom do you prefer to play: South Carolina, UCLA or Texas? I doubt if the NCAA matches South Carolina and Texas in the SF’s!!!!

 

[GetReal2day]

Big question is who do we want to be the fourth #1 seed? If UConn stays #1 all four One Seeds make it to the Final Four whom do you prefer to play: South Carolina, UCLA or Texas? I doubt if the NCAA matches South Carolina and Texas in the SF’s!!!!

I would prefer playing Texas and let SC and UCLA battle it out. Betts is the biggest worry to UConn I think now that they have the new girl that can shoot threes.

 

[oldude]

I care only about UConn being the overall #1 seed. If the Huskies win out through the conference tournament it’s a done deal. After that, things will sort themselves out. UConn will spank whoever ends up in Storrs for the first 2 rounds. After that, as an overall #1, theoretically, if the Big Dance goes chalk, UConn would need to get through #16 & #8 to make it back to the FF. If the Huskies stay healthy and Geno doesn’t decide to suddenly retire, I feel pretty good about that road to championship #13.

 

[Vowelguy]

Big question is who do we want to be the fourth #1 seed? If UConn stays #1 all four One Seeds make it to the Final Four whom do you prefer to play: South Carolina, UCLA or Texas? I doubt if the NCAA matches South Carolina and Texas in the SF’s!!!!

Committee has many examples of letting teams face each other for the 3rd or 4th time in the semis if that's what the rankings say

 

[DEpup]

• UC LA 7-1
• UConn 5-0
• SoCar 4-1
• Texas 4-1
• Kntky 4-2
• Louis 4-3
• L S U 3-2
• Michi 3-2
• Oh St 3-2
• MchSt 3-0 + 1 quad2 loss
• Baylr 3-3
• DukeU 3-5 + 1 quad2 loss

Fewer than 3:
#5 Vandy, #10 TCU, #11 Iowa, #12 Md, #13 Okla, #16 Miss

Who was our #5? Did SHall get counted as Quad 1?

 

[visitingcock]

Committee has many examples of letting teams face each other for the 3rd or 4th time in the semis if that's what the rankings say

Including last year when SCar and Texas met in the semi final for their 4th meeting of the year. The same “could” happen this year.

 

[HuskyNan]

Who was our #5? Did SHall get counted as Quad 1?

Louisville
Iowa
Ohio State
USC
Utah

 

[fomalhaut]

Phil's summary was very good. I'd only mildly quibble with Michigan State, who I think is very unproven: one good win against Ole Miss and some decent wins against medium Big 10 teams. The picture will be a lot clearer in the next few weeks of Big 10 play (Michigan also has an out of conference game against Vanderbilt).

One thing that's not clear to me is whether these polls are supposed to be mere summaries of what's happened so far, or are they supposed to be predictive (extremely difficult)? Or does each voter just do whetever they want?

 

[fomalhaut]

Louisville
Iowa
Ohio State
USC
Utah

Not Michigan?

 

[Vowelguy]

Who was our #5? Did SHall get counted as Quad 1?

1. Michigan
2. Louisville
3. Iowa
4. USC
5. Ohio St

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketballw/2026/net-teamsheets-plus

 

[Cuango]

Texas visits SoCar this week (Thursday) so something has to give, again.

Kim beats Vic right before he plays Dawn! Yet more fuel on the bonfire that is Dawn and Kim’s relationship!🙄 That should be a real barnburner of a game. Hard to see Texas winning on South Carolina’s home court but…..stranger things have happened. I believe I’ll set aside some time to watch that game.

 

[Vowelguy]

Kim beats Vic right before he plays Dawn! Yet more fuel on the bonfire that is Dawn and Kim’s relationship!🙄 That should be a real barnburner of a game. Hard to see Texas winning on South Carolina’s home court but…..stranger things have happened. I believe I’ll set aside some time to watch that game.

Vic was clearly sending a message to Harmon by not playing her in the 4th. If the strategy works, she could have a monster game.
Also not quite sure what to make of SC. Not sure if they've found their identity yet?

 

[Cuango]

Big question is who do we want to be the fourth #1 seed? If UConn stays #1 all four One Seeds make it to the Final Four whom do you prefer to play: South Carolina, UCLA or Texas? I doubt if the NCAA matches South Carolina and Texas in the SF’s!!!!

I definitely would rather face UCLA than either Texas or South Carolina. The coaching disparity is so great that it actually trumps the players.

 

[HuskyNan]

Not Michigan?

Replace Utah with Michigan

It makes a difference where you play. Home, neutral, and road games are”graded “ differently

 

[Vowelguy]

lol, Coach Yo complaining about the poll. Coach, don't you have better things to worry about?
[Like maybe keeping your assistant from threatening/verbally abusing the players? IYKYK]

Coach Yo
@YolettMcCuin
This is a joke! And if the voters not going to do their jobs we don’t need a AP POLL! Had we lost two games in a row we’d be fighting to stay in or we’d be out!

 

[DEpup]

Louisville
Iowa
Ohio State
USC
Utah

Thanks.

 

[JellyBean]

Wow. Was not expecting Texas to fall to #4 after that loss but I am sure they will creep back up into that #2 spot.

 

[bballnut90]

Kim beats Vic right before he plays Dawn! Yet more fuel on the bonfire that is Dawn and Kim’s relationship!🙄 That should be a real barnburner of a game. Hard to see Texas winning on South Carolina’s home court but…..stranger things have happened. I believe I’ll set aside some time to watch that game.

Kim and Dawn have always been pretty respectful to each other as far as I know. I don't think there's any beef between them despite going after similar players and the Fulwiley transfer.

 

[JellyBean]

Texas Tech quietly going about their business.

 

[Gael]

I'd like to compare the AP vote each week with the rankings in terms of my favorite, pace-neutral team strength stat, Adjusted Net Rating. Net Rating is defined as a team's Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) minus its Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). The offensive, defensive and net ratings are all Adjusted for the team's SOS and game location (home, away, neutral).

Here are the current top 25 teams sorted by Adjusted Net Rating (the last column on the right):

Rk	School	Conf		AP Rank	W	L	Pts	Opp	MOV		SOS		OSRS	DSRS	SRS	ORtg	DRtg	NRtg ▼
1	Connecticut	Big East		1	17	0	89.9	51.8	38.12		14.50		30.66	21.95	52.61	130.27	61.02	69.24
2	UCLA	Big Ten		3	15	1	87.1	56.6	30.44		17.49		27.39	20.54	47.92	131.78	67.13	64.65
3	South Carolina	SEC		2	17	1	89.7	53.6	36.17		10.50		28.28	18.38	46.66	124.72	65.01	59.71
4	Texas	SEC		4	18	1	90.5	53.2	37.32		9.30		27.88	18.73	46.62	125.59	65.96	59.63
5	Louisiana State	SEC		6	16	2	100.1	55.9	44.17		2.07		34.78	11.46	46.24	124.22	69.89	54.33
6	Michigan	Big Ten		8	14	2	88.9	57.8	31.13		10.62		26.26	15.49	41.74	117.90	65.87	52.03
7	Louisville	ACC		9	16	3	82.9	58.2	24.68		10.17		21.76	13.09	34.86	118.73	73.61	45.12
8	Kentucky	SEC		7	16	2	78.2	53.0	25.22		7.81		14.79	18.24	33.03	115.45	70.61	44.84
9	TCU	Big 12		10	16	1	84.3	52.1	32.24		2.30		18.55	15.99	34.54	114.66	70.11	44.54
10	Michigan State	Big Ten		15	16	1	88.5	58.2	30.29		3.91		23.76	10.44	34.20	121.34	77.20	44.14
11	Minnesota	Big Ten			12	4	76.2	51.8	24.44		6.98		13.14	18.28	31.42	112.54	69.26	43.28
12	Oklahoma	SEC		13	14	3	90.8	60.6	30.18		6.89		27.55	9.52	37.07	111.45	68.25	43.21
13	Vanderbilt	SEC		5	17	0	86.8	56.1	30.71		2.49		21.25	11.95	33.20	119.15	76.07	43.08
14	Maryland	Big Ten		12	16	2	87.0	56.8	30.22		2.85		23.78	9.29	33.07	117.36	74.44	42.92
15	Nebraska	Big Ten		24	14	3	84.4	62.2	22.12		8.65		20.63	10.14	30.77	119.41	78.75	40.66
16	Iowa	Big Ten		11	14	2	80.9	61.1	19.75		11.84		18.36	13.23	31.59	112.08	71.93	40.15
17	West Virginia	Big 12			14	3	80.0	57.9	22.06		9.17		17.54	13.68	31.23	112.97	73.24	39.73
18	Duke	ACC			11	6	74.2	62.2	11.94		18.90		16.39	14.45	30.84	110.97	71.34	39.63
19	Tennessee	SEC		20	12	3	81.3	60.5	20.80		10.56		21.08	10.28	31.36	111.57	72.11	39.45
20	Southern California	Big Ten			10	6	68.5	58.2	10.31		18.78		10.45	18.64	29.09	106.42	67.78	38.64
21	Mississippi	SEC		16	16	3	79.1	55.1	24.05		6.02		15.34	14.73	30.07	111.88	73.61	38.27
22	Oregon	Big Ten			14	4	78.4	60.5	17.89		10.85		17.37	11.37	28.74	110.11	72.78	37.32
23	NC State	ACC			12	5	76.4	63.5	12.82		16.22		18.00	11.04	29.04	111.59	74.58	37.01
24	Notre Dame	ACC		23	12	4	84.8	62.2	22.56		6.97		21.15	8.38	29.53	114.74	78.18	36.56
25	Alabama	SEC		21	17	1	73.4	53.1	20.33		6.37		11.23	15.47	26.70	109.64	73.40	36.2

 

[FanFromMaine]

Thanks.

One question: is the SOS listed here the projected end of the season figure? I ask because the ranking here for a number of teams does not seem to reflect current play.

 

[Vowelguy]

Not listed above:
14 OhioSt
17 TexTech
18 Baylor
19 IowaSt
22 Princeton
25 Illinois

 

[Phil]

The omission of Princeton doesn't bother me, their rating is suspect. I also think Texas Tech is overrated, but it's a close call whether they should be in the top 25 or not.

Ohio State is a real puzzler. 14 in AP but 8 in Massey, so I am curious what justifies them is not being in the top 25

 

[Gael]

One question: is the SOS listed here the projected end of the season figure?

The SRCBB table I posted above for all 363 DI schools can be accessed HERE. You can sort schools by any of the columns. Typically, you have to wait at least 24 hours for the AP column to update after the AP releases its Monday poll. The other columns seem to update early every morning.

SRCBB, like all computer-based rating systems, has proprietary algorithms for computing its stats. SRCBB's algorithms even try to compensate for the "rubber band effect."

Their SOS stat is based only on games played to date (not the future schedule). Each opponent is measured by SRCBB's Simple Rating System (SRS), which can also be seen in the table columns. The numerical SOS rating is denominated in points above/below average, where the average team would have a zero SOS. Zero SOS in yesterday's table would be between Colorado State and Arkansas State.

 

[Phil]

I'm new to the site so can help me out.

When you first load the page, using your link the first column is "Rk" which stands for rank. The glossary helpfully explains that but doesn't say what it's based on. I figured it out that it is sorted by the SRS column.

That ranking system as of Ohio State that position 21 while your metric of choice, net rating, has them at position 27.

While immediately conceding it isn't clear how to determine whether net rating or SRS or AP or Massey or anything else is the best without some clearly defined acceptable metric, do you know if anyone has done regression of any of these measures against end of season AP ranking?

 

[Gael]

When you first load the page, using your link the first column is "Rk" which stands for rank. The glossary helpfully explains that but doesn't say what it's based on. I figured it out that it is sorted by the SRS column.

Phil, when you first open up the SRCBB table it appears to be sorted/ranked by SRS, which is their proprietary ranking system.

If you sort by any of the other columns, the teams will be ranked by that sort.

While immediately conceding it isn't clear how to determine whether net rating or SRS or AP or Massey or anything else is the best without some clearly defined acceptable metric, do you know if anyone has done regression of any of these measures against end of season AP ranking?

Yes, there are many computer rankings, mostly using proprietary algorithms and regression analyses of various kinds. And then there are human polls. It's anyone's choice as to which to believe is the best.

The only comparison of all these ranking sites that I'm aware of is the Fun Bracket that pilight from RebKell would enter the NCAAT pool. He'd enter brackets for the final rankings in the AP poll, Coaches Poll, NET, RPI, Massey, Warren Nolan, and a bunch of the other computerized ranking sites. He'd end up with a ranked list of how each human/computer ranking site did in the empirical competition of the actual NCAAT.

He did this for decades, but RebKell is now dead, so his threads on the Fun Bracket pools are gone. In different years, I recall Sagarin and Massey each won it two or three times. In recent years I seem to recall AP and RPI winning. I suppose pilight could be contacted to get all the historical results. His website (can't link it for some reason)—search on his name plus dot x y z)—doesn't have the Fun Bracket results, but does have an email address for him.

 

[Phil]

Thanks

 

[JellyBean]

I'd like to compare the AP vote each week with the rankings in terms of my favorite, pace-neutral team strength stat, Adjusted Net Rating. Net Rating is defined as a team's Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) minus its Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). The offensive, defensive and net ratings are all Adjusted for the team's SOS and game location (home, away, neutral).

Here are the current top 25 teams sorted by Adjusted Net Rating (the last column on the right):

Rk	School	Conf		AP Rank	W	L	Pts	Opp	MOV		SOS		OSRS	DSRS	SRS	ORtg	DRtg	NRtg ▼
1	Connecticut	Big East		1	17	0	89.9	51.8	38.12		14.50		30.66	21.95	52.61	130.27	61.02	69.24
2	UCLA	Big Ten		3	15	1	87.1	56.6	30.44		17.49		27.39	20.54	47.92	131.78	67.13	64.65
3	South Carolina	SEC		2	17	1	89.7	53.6	36.17		10.50		28.28	18.38	46.66	124.72	65.01	59.71
4	Texas	SEC		4	18	1	90.5	53.2	37.32		9.30		27.88	18.73	46.62	125.59	65.96	59.63
5	Louisiana State	SEC		6	16	2	100.1	55.9	44.17		2.07		34.78	11.46	46.24	124.22	69.89	54.33
6	Michigan	Big Ten		8	14	2	88.9	57.8	31.13		10.62		26.26	15.49	41.74	117.90	65.87	52.03
7	Louisville	ACC		9	16	3	82.9	58.2	24.68		10.17		21.76	13.09	34.86	118.73	73.61	45.12
8	Kentucky	SEC		7	16	2	78.2	53.0	25.22		7.81		14.79	18.24	33.03	115.45	70.61	44.84
9	TCU	Big 12		10	16	1	84.3	52.1	32.24		2.30		18.55	15.99	34.54	114.66	70.11	44.54
10	Michigan State	Big Ten		15	16	1	88.5	58.2	30.29		3.91		23.76	10.44	34.20	121.34	77.20	44.14
11	Minnesota	Big Ten			12	4	76.2	51.8	24.44		6.98		13.14	18.28	31.42	112.54	69.26	43.28
12	Oklahoma	SEC		13	14	3	90.8	60.6	30.18		6.89		27.55	9.52	37.07	111.45	68.25	43.21
13	Vanderbilt	SEC		5	17	0	86.8	56.1	30.71		2.49		21.25	11.95	33.20	119.15	76.07	43.08
14	Maryland	Big Ten		12	16	2	87.0	56.8	30.22		2.85		23.78	9.29	33.07	117.36	74.44	42.92
15	Nebraska	Big Ten		24	14	3	84.4	62.2	22.12		8.65		20.63	10.14	30.77	119.41	78.75	40.66
16	Iowa	Big Ten		11	14	2	80.9	61.1	19.75		11.84		18.36	13.23	31.59	112.08	71.93	40.15
17	West Virginia	Big 12			14	3	80.0	57.9	22.06		9.17		17.54	13.68	31.23	112.97	73.24	39.73
18	Duke	ACC			11	6	74.2	62.2	11.94		18.90		16.39	14.45	30.84	110.97	71.34	39.63
19	Tennessee	SEC		20	12	3	81.3	60.5	20.80		10.56		21.08	10.28	31.36	111.57	72.11	39.45
20	Southern California	Big Ten			10	6	68.5	58.2	10.31		18.78		10.45	18.64	29.09	106.42	67.78	38.64
21	Mississippi	SEC		16	16	3	79.1	55.1	24.05		6.02		15.34	14.73	30.07	111.88	73.61	38.27
22	Oregon	Big Ten			14	4	78.4	60.5	17.89		10.85		17.37	11.37	28.74	110.11	72.78	37.32
23	NC State	ACC			12	5	76.4	63.5	12.82		16.22		18.00	11.04	29.04	111.59	74.58	37.01
24	Notre Dame	ACC		23	12	4	84.8	62.2	22.56		6.97		21.15	8.38	29.53	114.74	78.18	36.56
25	Alabama	SEC		21	17	1	73.4	53.1	20.33		6.37		11.23	15.47	26.70	109.64	73.40	36.2

Minnesota at #11. Thanks for putting this together and for showing Minny some love.