AP Poll - Week 16

[HuskyHawk]

If we lose on Wednesday we’re going to be a 5 seed no matter what. We basically gotta win out and advance further in the BET than any of the teams currently on the 4 seed line advance in their respective conference tournaments.

Still think we could sneak up to the last 2 seed though if we win out and win the BET. Our seed range is very wide right now

Really no chance of that 2 unless everyone else just loses all their games. Not sure that can happen since many play each other. But a 3 is possible if we win out and even then we may need help.

I‘m more worried bout reaching the sweet 16 than being seeded to do it.

 

[msgordon]

It’s because we’re much better, and the people whining are babies. This team won’t be a 5 seed by tournament time.

I mean the committee just revealed that not only are we a 5 seed, we are (somehow) the last 5 seed, and it looks like none of our last 4 games are Q1 opportunities. I agree we are a lot better but it looks like we could definitely be a 5.

 

[aburks41]

Really no chance of that 2 unless everyone else just loses all their games. Not sure that can happen since many play each other. But a 3 is possible if we win out and even then we may need help.

I‘m more worried bout reaching the sweet 16 than being seeded to do it.

If we win the BET that would mean likely beating 3 of PC, Xavier, Marquette, or Creighton. I think we could get there. It would definitely be a 3 seed worthy resume

 

[ToolzieFan]

I mean the committee just revealed that not only are we a 5 seed, we are (somehow) the last 5 seed, and it looks like none of our last 4 games are Q1 opportunities. I agree we are a lot better but it looks like we could definitely be a 5.

There is no last 5 seed. The list was given in alphabetical order: Creighton, Miami, St. Mary’s, and UConn.

 

[msgordon]

There is no last 5 seed. The list was given in alphabetical order: Creighton, Miami, St. Mary’s, and UConn.

ok i was going by this quote from an article...thanks

"It's razor thin," Reynolds said of Creighton just narrowly missing the top 16. "We spent countless hours talking about Creighton. They could have easily been in the 16 spot. In order: Creighton, Miami, Saint Mary's and UConn narrowly missed the top 16."

 

[HuskyHawk]

ok i was going by this quote from an article...thanks

"It's razor thin," Reynolds said of Creighton just narrowly missing the top 16. "We spent countless hours talking about Creighton. They could have easily been in the 16 spot. In order: Creighton, Miami, Saint Mary's and UConn narrowly missed the top 16."

That’s what I read too. I think we were last. Connecticut would be first alphabetically

 

[msgordon]

if you listen to the clip above the guy says alpha order...i don't know why the article omitted it

 

[gtcam]

Alphabetical or not it makes zero difference, There is still important league games to be played.

 

[F101Voodoo]

Things like this are why it’s hard to believe this team is a 5-seed… we are SO much better than we were last year when we were a 5

Each year there is a different mix of different strengths in the hunt. It is relative.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Longest streak since the 2010-11 season. View attachment 84276

We're not a program who rates ourselves by AP poll rankings, but this is the sort of thing that's a decent benchmark for the trajectory of the program. Big picture: we're going in the right direction.

 

[NJHusky]

I mean the committee just revealed that not only are we a 5 seed, we are (somehow) the last 5 seed, and it looks like none of our last 4 games are Q1 opportunities. I agree we are a lot better but it looks like we could definitely be a 5.

It’s recency bias. If we started off 9-7/and were on a14-0 run we’d be in the top 16…prob top 12. Instead we‘re on a 9-7 run with a clunker thrown in.

 

[OkaForPrez]

It’s recency bias. If we started off 9-7/and were on a14-0 run we’d be in the top 16…prob top 12. Instead we‘re on a 9-7 run with a clunker thrown in.

Agreed, Which is why it’s not the quality of the wins down the stretch rather than the importance of putting the slide behind us.

If you’re 8-2 in your last 10 say, which would be the case if we go 3-1 down the stretch and win the BET and your resume is now back on par with teams in the 2-3-4 seed line the “what have you done for me lately” takes over and the committee will move us to the three line because it will be about protecting their 1 seeds.

 

[Hi-Low]

Really no chance of that 2 unless everyone else just loses all their games. Not sure that can happen since many play each other. But a 3 is possible if we win out and even then we may need help.

I‘m more worried bout reaching the sweet 16 than being seeded to do it.

I would agree a 2 seed is out of range. We're a 5 now with 4 games left, win those I would say a 4 seed no problem. But considering that no BE team was higher than a 4 seed in the first bracket the ceiling for the BE might be a 3 seed at this point.

The committee will have a "prelim" 68 team field seeded and in place probably by that Friday before Selection Sunday and then on Saturday they go over scenarios if this happens / if that happens but no major seeding movements happen that final weekend imo. Winning the BE tourney is not moving UConn from a 4 to a 2 seed. If BE tourney winner is among X, Marq, UConn & Creighton I'm guessing that team would be a 3 seed.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Agreed, Which is why it’s not the quality of the wins down the stretch rather than the importance of putting the slide behind us.

If you’re 8-2 in your last 10 say, which would be the case if we go 3-1 down the stretch and win the BET and your resume is now back on par with teams in the 2-3-4 seed line the “what have you done for me lately” takes over and the committee will move us to the three line because it will be about protecting their 1 seeds.

And if we are a 4 in that scenario, you can bet it will be in Houston’s region if they are a 1.

 

[Tenspro2002]

It’s recency bias. If we started off 9-7/and were on a14-0 run we’d be in the top 16…prob top 12. Instead we‘re on a 9-7 run with a clunker thrown in.

Which is incredibly stupid, because they explicitly discarded the "last 10 games" criterion over a decade ago.

 

[NJHusky]

Which is incredibly stupid, because they explicitly discarded the "last 10 games" criterion over a decade ago.

Really? Didn’t know that. How do u disregard the last 10 games? That’s 40% of the season

 

[Tenspro2002]

Really? Didn’t know that. How do u disregard the last 10 games? That’s 40% of the season

Sorry, should have been clearer.

What they eliminated was giving extra weight to the last 10 games, i.e. did you get hot down the stretch. There was an explicit push to consider the entire body of work over the whole season.

 

[NJHusky]

Sorry, should have been clearer.

What they eliminated was giving extra weight to the last 10 games, i.e. did you get hot down the stretch. There was an explicit push to consider the entire body of work over the whole season.

Makes sense...and I have no knowledge, it just seems like it's hard to overcome recency bias in a subjective poll IMO.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Borges is weird.

Creighton is 18-9 with 4 losses to unranked Texas Tech, Nebraska, BYU, and Arizona St.

UConn is 20-7 with losses to unranked St Johns and Seton Hall.

Creighton has no ranked wins outside the BE, UConn has 2, including one over Alabama.

Creighton has 3 ranked BE wins, UConn has 2.

Creighton's center played sick for the Nebraska game, and was out for the BYU, Arizona State and Marquette losses.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Tennessee has a lot of bad losses for a #11 team.

 

[KingAG]

Creighton's center played sick for the Nebraska game, and was out for the BYU, Arizona State and Marquette losses.

We started the first 3 games without Andre Jackson and Jordan Hawkins. That never gets brought up in the trajectory of the season

 

[upstater]

Creighton's center played sick for the Nebraska game, and was out for the BYU, Arizona State and Marquette losses.

We've had injuries over the years and this is never taken into account by the rankers.

He even played in both games against UConn.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

We started the first 3 games without Andre Jackson and Jordan Hawkins. That never gets brought up in the trajectory of the season

And UConn won all 3 games so it doesn't matter.

 

[KingAG]

And UConn won all 3 games so it doesn't matter.

But it does. If you’re going to give them the excuse of missing a player then you’d have to give every team that has missed significant players that same excuse

 

[nelsonmuntz]

But it does. If you’re going to give them the excuse of missing a player then you’d have to give every team that has missed significant players that same excuse

Do I have to draw this using crayons? UCONN DIDN'T LOSE THOSE GAMES. Therefore, UConn doesn't need an excuse.

You are welcome to think it doesn't matter all you want, but when healthy, Creighton is really good, and Creighton is healthy right now.

 

[KingAG]

Balonga. Every team has had injuries. And watching the broadcast just now King was pretty good in his absence. It provides context. But it shouldn’t absolve them of those losses. They lost to Nebraska with Kalkbrenner. They weren’t setting the world on fire before his absence. And yes they are pretty good

 

[gtcam]

Balonga. Every team has had injuries. And watching the broadcast just now King was pretty good in his absence. It provides context. But it shouldn’t absolve them of those losses. They lost to Nebraska with Kalkbrenner. They weren’t setting the world on fire before his absence. And yes they are pretty good

Im not getting into you guys pissing war but Nebraska has beaten Wisconsin, Rutgers and Maryland the last 3 games

 

[KingAG]

Im not getting into you guys pissing war but Nebraska has beaten Wisconsin, Rutgers and Maryland the last 3 games

Yea but they weren’t playing this well when they beat them. 14-14 they’re objectively not good. All of this is moot though because Creighton is a good team. But a top 4 seed with 10+ losses is a stretch

 

[Tenspro2002]

Makes sense...and I have no knowledge, it just seems like it's hard to overcome recency bias in a subjective poll IMO.

For the poll, that's fine. AP voters can use whatever criteria they want.

For NCAA Tournament selection and seeding, they're supposed to consider the whole resume, not just who's hot at the time. It's clear that they're not doing that and are deferring to the (subjective, recency-bias-affected) polls, which hurts us more than anyone else.

 

[August_West]

We started the first 3 games without Andre Jackson and Jordan Hawkins. That never gets brought up in the trajectory of the season

ummmm because we played Stonehill (332), BU (286), and Buffalo (196)? Maybe?