AP poll 2/4: How far will UConn drop?

[Plebe]

OK... that tracks... but
(1) Jackie Young DID play when UCONN beat ND on their Home Court by 18 pts.
(2) ND lost to an unranked UNC Team, that has shown little or nothing before that game... some may have expected that they could/should have won that game with 1, 2, or more starters taking the night off... I suspect MM surely expected a W that game, even without Jackie.
(3) UCONN's losses have been to the two teams likely ranked #1 and #2 this week,on their courts.
(4) Charlie Creme seems to make some fan base upset every year...and his "bracketology" does not always (or often??) match up with the Committee's rankings.

None of it really matters in the end... the team that's going to win the NC has to be the one who "brings it" for those final 6 games.

You've selected two specific data points, but the committee will evaluate the resumes holistically.

UConn's and ND's best wins more or less cancel each other out. From there the committee is looking at "Who else have you beaten?" And again, ND's catalog of quality wins far exceeds UConn's. The loss to UNC, in light of Young's injury, is barely a tiny blip alongside the large discrepancy in quality wins.

It certainly doesn't hurt UConn to have lost to Louisville and Baylor, but it means their entire resume hangs very heavily on a single win, and that's just probably not enough for a #1 seed.

 

[Jmsdawg]

IS Charlie Creme "in the room" during the Tournament selection process? IF NOT, then HIS statement that "ND's place as #1 seed is not questionned"... should not be taken as the final word. ND lost 2 times... to UCONN and an UNRANKED (at the time) UNC team. At the same point in the season, UCONN has lost 2 times... to the Current #1 and #3 teams (with #3 likely to be #2 this week). HOW can that not keep UCONN ranked above ND??

Good question, how does ND rank ahead of UConn. As of today, how can ND be a number 1 seed?

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

No, you're not quite following my line of thought. UConn's two losses are definitely better than Notre Dame's 2 losses, but the quality of wins is even more important in the minds of the selection committee (and Notre Dame has that advantage over UConn in spades). The poll voters probably also consider the quality of wins as opposed to just the W-L record, but clearly not as much as the selection committee (cf Maryland's poll vs. seeding a couple of years ago and Baylor's last year).

I gotcha... and I did understand your "quality wins" point.... my response was that both ND and UCONN have beaten everyone else they played...besides the 2 losses...and that even though they were not always pretty, they were still wins. As they used to say back in the day... "A win is a win"... And, yes, I understand, ND's wins have been vs a "higher rated" over all bunch..(not completely under either team's control)...but again, and not to beat a dead horse... UCONN did beat ND, on their floor, by a bunch. I know I'm a UCONN Fan and not ND fan...so that is my bias... but the logic path's in my brain tell me that it's gotta be hard to put ND above UCONN based on their head to head...

March will come in just a few weeks...and the Madness will begin...

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

You've selected two specific data points, but the committee will evaluate the resumes holistically.

UConn's and ND's best wins more or less cancel each other out. From there the committee is looking at "Who else have you beaten?" And again, ND's catalog of quality wins far exceeds UConn's. The loss to UNC, in light of Young's injury, is barely a tiny blip alongside the large discrepancy in quality wins.

It certainly doesn't hurt UConn to have lost to Louisville and Baylor, but it means their entire resume hangs solely on the ND win, and that's just probably not enough for a #1 seed.

Thank You and I get it.
But, You over simplified my comments.
Fortunately the "talking heads" and "voters" won't decide the NC.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Good question, how does ND rank ahead of UConn. As of today, how can ND be a number 1 seed?

You could read the replies by me or @Plebe if you want, or you could look at Massey. ND, Miss St. and Baylor are all virtually tied atop his rating. Notre Dame is ranked 3rd, but has a higher Power Rating, which determines who beats whom in Massey's predictions (i.e., Massey predicts the Irish would beat Baylor and Miss St at a neutral site). UConn is ranked 6th presently, but is 4th in Power Rating. I do not believe that voters consult Massey, but I mention that to point out how rational voters might rank Notre Dame above UConn. As for the committee members, I believe they consult any data they want in evaluating which teams make the field and then later as they seed the teams.

 

[Plebe]

Thank You and I get it.
But, You over simplified my comments.
Fortunately the "talking heads" and "voters" won't decide the NC.

Yes, fortunately

I for one won't be bothered by a 2 seed because I'd rather have UConn be the hunter instead of the hunted, for a change.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Yes, fortunately

I for one won't be bothered by a 2 seed because I'd rather have UConn be the hunter instead of the hunted, for a change.

It's all part of a diabolical strategy... CW's wall, Lou's shooting issues, and dropping to a 2 seed...gets EVERYONE else OVER Confident.... and UCONN will cruise to the title game.

 

[Plebe]

Indeed, no. 5. By a 12-point margin.

 

[Plebe]

And just to rub it in, the article features Geno's "where'd I put my razor" look:

AP Women's Basketball Poll Week 14

 

[j66kicker]

UNC got votes. TN did not. Antonelli voted UConn ahead of ND.

 

[Vowelguy]

UNC got votes. TN did not. Antonelli voted UConn ahead of ND.

HOW CAN THAT BE??? ANTONELLI IS BIASED AGAINST UCONN !!!!

For one Debbie Antonelli is ready to move UConn to Siberia, if she has the chance.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

my thoughts...
What ever.

Still more season and more changes to come. Fortunately for ALL of us it will be decided on the floor and not here. Just another thing for people to debate while we wait for the tournaments.

 

[Centerstream]

Yup, makes absolute sense...we lost to the current #1 and #2 teams, on their courts and ND lost to us, on their court, and unrated UNC.
But on the other hand, if they are voting on how people think that we playing (and reading the BY), well...

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Is it ODD that UNC is only "Receiving Votes" when they defeated ND and NC State (the only unbeaten left until they played)...both teams in the top 7 in last week's polls??

 

[donalddoowop]

At this point in the season, I don't believe UConn is better than Mississippi State. UConn should be number six. All, or most of the top five teams have their offenses clicking while UConn has had trouble scoring. I never thought I see the day when UConn struggled to score seventy points against the weaker teams.

 

[SLY63]

The top 6 are all capable of winning it all. As long as we get Albany I would be happy. I can't imagine anyone wants to be the #1 in Albany if we are #2.

 

[WeCocky]

In looking at the way the pollsters voted, I am particularly perplexed by Percy Allen of the Seattle Times. Last week, he did not even have SC ranked, and this week, his ranking of SC falls way outside that of each other pollster by a long shot. Then, upon further investigation, I have to seriously question his logic. He clearly is either not taking his responsibility seriously, or he hasn't watched any women's basketball games this year and only looks at final scores and ignores opponents, SOS, actual flow of games (some scores are definitely not true pictures of how close the game was played, i.e. ND/Louisville, SC/MSU, etc.). For example, he still has NCSU ranked #6 despite losing to unranked UNC and having an overall weak schedule thus far this season. He also has TAMU and Kentucky ranked in the top 15, and BYU is listed at #25 despite taking 2 losses this week to unranked teams. I understand rankings are more for the fans than anything, particularly at this point of the season; however, I believe if you are tasked with the responsibility of casting a ballot, you should at least put forth some effort.

 

[triaddukefan]

HOW CAN THAT BE??? ANTONELLI IS BIASED AGAINST UCONN !!!!

Plus she has an ACC bias

 

[Vowelguy]

Is it ODD that UNC is only "Receiving Votes" when they defeated ND and NC State (the only unbeaten left until they played)...both teams in the top 7 in last week's polls??

You mean the team that lost to Auburn, Maine, and Ohio St?

 

[Orangutan]

You mean the team that lost to Auburn, Maine, and Ohio St?

Having watched them the last two Sundays, I find it hard to believe they are not one of the best 25 teams right now.

I also can't understand how they lost to the likes of Ohio State and Colorado earlier this year. They are truly a mystery.

I totally understand why they are not in the top 25, but if I had a ballot, they would be on it.

 

[MilfordHusky]

That ties our lowest ranking in 12 years. Once Maya Moore stepped foot on campus, we've been the best of the best.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

You mean the team that lost to Auburn, Maine, and Ohio St?

I have been "lectured" all morning that Quality Wins mean MORE than bad losses. But what you are saying "who someone lost too" IS important???? but it's not for ND who lost to a team that lost to Auburn, Maine Ohio State? Crazy mixed up world... beating my head against a wall is more fun that trying to figure out what's important and what's not.

 

[VA Huskie]

The reason that @bbballfan23 suggested is NOT how the voters will determine their ballots. You seem to be very convinced that the quantity/quality of losses is the most important determinant, for poll voters, for Creme, and for the selection committee. But the committee values good wins more than bad losses. I know that @Plebe and @vowelguy have explained this many times on this board, probably in response to some of your posts. Notre Dame has more high quality wins, which is why they are presently a 1-seed and Creme has UConn as a 2-seed, despite the fact that UConn beat ND convincingly in South Bend.

As for what the voters contemplate, who knows? It's probably different factors for each voter and I'll bet sometimes biases get in the way. But we don't have to worry what voters say because the tournament decides the champ.

Hey Choke - you explained this to me the other day b/c I had the same issue. I appreciated your explanation, understand it and now agree with it. It was hard for me to get beyond “we beat you easily on your court”. Good wins is a good way to explain it. Plus, we now know that Williams’s game against ND was her career game (so far). At the time of the game we thought we were seeing the next Husky all american. She may eventually be that, but not this year. So her game was the outlier... and I’m not convinced UConn beats ND without that performance.

 

[mbr33ct]

UNC got votes. TN did not. Antonelli voted UConn ahead of ND.

I may have to eat my words now, from a previous post regarding Antonelli and something to do with Siberia. Tastes good, thank you...can I have another?

 

[mbr33ct]

HOW CAN THAT BE??? ANTONELLI IS BIASED AGAINST UCONN !!!!

see my post above.