AP poll 2/4: How far will UConn drop?

[Plebe]

I could see them dropping to anywhere between 3 and 5.

There will also be some shuffling in the 7-10 range, after the losses by Stanford and NC State. Also major movement in the 12-16 range due to losses by Texas, Iowa and Rutgers.

My prediction:

1. Baylor
2. Louisville (+1)
3. Oregon (+1)
4. UConn (-2)
5. Notre Dame
6. Miss St
7. Oregon St (+2)
8. Marquette (+2)
9. Stanford (-1)
10. NC State (-3)
11. Maryland
12. South Carolina (+4)
13. Gonzaga (+2)
14. Utah
15. Texas (-3)
16. Iowa (-3)
17. Syracuse (+1)
18. Kentucky (+1)
19. Texas A&M (+1)
20. Arizona St (+1)
21. Rutgers (-4)
22. Michigan St
23. Iowa St
24. North Carolina (NR)
25. Florida St (-1)

Dropping out: BYU
Still unranked: Tennessee (had to throw that in there to end on a positive)

 

[huskeynut]

I like your prediction Plebe.

My thoughts are UConn will drop to #5. The writers seem to have written off our win over ND. That will solidify Creme's moving UConn to a #2 seed in the tournament. Creme has also stated that ND's loss to UNC is not a bad loss and ND is still a 1 seed.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

I could see them dropping to anywhere between 3 and 5.

There will also be some shuffling in the 7-10 range, after the losses by Stanford and NC State. Also major movement in the 12-16 range due to losses by Texas, Iowa and Rutgers.

My prediction:

1. Baylor
2. Louisville (+1)
3. Oregon (+1)
4. UConn (-2)
5. Notre Dame
6. Miss St
7. Oregon St (+2)
8. Marquette (+2)
9. Stanford (-1)
10. NC State (-3)
11. Maryland
12. South Carolina (+4)
13. Gonzaga (+2)
14. Utah
15. Texas (-3)
16. Iowa (-3)
17. Syracuse (+1)
18. Kentucky (+1)
19. Texas A&M (+1)
20. Arizona St (+1)
21. Rutgers (-4)
22. Michigan St
23. Iowa St
24. North Carolina (NR)
25. Florida St (-1)

Dropping out: BYU
Still unranked: Tennessee (had to throw that in there to end on a positive)

looks pretty reasonable. We need to remember, Louisville was ranked #3 and UCONN #2 when they played, so there should not be a BIG drop... and ND still has 2 losses with one of them being to UCONN, so it seems reasonable for UCONN to remain ahead of them by one....and being that we're talking about few spots ahead of them...your rankings make a lot of sense.

 

[eebmg]

I like your prediction Plebe. My thoughts are UConn will drop to #5. The writers seem to have written off our win over ND. That will solidify Creme's moving UConn to a #2 seed in the tournament.

Agreed. Together with UNC's win over NC St which makes ND's loss to NC less of a 'bad' loss.

 

[Plebe]

I like your prediction Plebe.

My thoughts are UConn will drop to #5. The writers seem to have written off our win over ND. That will solidify Creme's moving UConn to a #2 seed in the tournament. Creme has also stated that ND's loss to UNC is not a bad loss and ND is still a 1 seed.

The AP poll and bracketology predictions are independent of each other. The one doesn't solidify the other.

 

[LoTrader]

South Carolina continues to impress. This team is getting better every game. Will be a scary team come tournament time.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

The AP poll and bracketology predictions are independent of each other. The one doesn't solidify the other.

IS Charlie Creme "in the room" during the Tournament selection process? IF NOT, then HIS statement that "ND's place as #1 seed is not questionned"... should not be taken as the final word. ND lost 2 times... to UCONN and an UNRANKED (at the time) UNC team. At the same point in the season, UCONN has lost 2 times... to the Current #1 and #3 teams (with #3 likely to be #2 this week). HOW can that not keep UCONN ranked above ND??

 

[Plebe]

South Carolina continues to impress. This team is getting better every game. Will be a scary team come tournament time.

The 2/11 game in Storrs will be absolutely no cakewalk. UConn will have to bring it or else the Boneyard will completely implode.

 

[Plebe]

IS Charlie Creme "in the room" during the Tournament selection process? IF NOT, then HIS statement that "ND's place as #1 seed is not questionned"... should not be taken as the final word. ND lost 2 times... to UCONN and an UNRANKED UNC team. At the same point in the season, UCONN has lost 2 times... to the Current #1 and #3 teams (with #3 likely to be #2 this week). HOW can that not keep UCONN ranked above ND??

Because tournament seeding is based on more than just counting losses.

ND's loss to UNC is mitigated in the committee's eyes by the fact they were missing a key starter (provided that Jackie Young is available for postseason play).

And in any event, that one loss is outweighed by ND's resume of top-25 and top-50 wins, which far exceeds UConn's.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Because tournament seeding is based on more than just counting losses.

ND's loss to UNC is mitigated in the committee's eyes by the fact they were missing a key starter (provided that Jackie Young is available for postseason play).

And in any event, that one loss is outweighed by ND's resume of top-25 and top-50 wins, which far exceeds UConn's.

OK... that tracks... but
(1) Jackie Young DID play when UCONN beat ND on their Home Court by 18 pts.
(2) ND lost to an unranked UNC Team, that has shown little or nothing before that game... some may have expected that they could/should have won that game with 1, 2, or more starters taking the night off... I suspect MM surely expected a W that game, even without Jackie.
(3) UCONN's losses have been to the two teams likely ranked #1 and #2 this week,on their courts.
(4) Charlie Creme seems to make some fan base upset every year...and his "bracketology" does not always (or often??) match up with the Committee's rankings.

None of it really matters in the end... the team that's going to win the NC has to be the one who "brings it" for those final 6 games.

 

[Orangutan]

My prediction:

1. Baylor
2. Louisville (+1)
3. Oregon (+1)
4. UConn (-2)
5. Notre Dame

Reasonable prediction. However, the gap between ND and Oregon was only two points last week. It was basically a tie. So it would be a little strange if UConn landed in between them.

If anything, I would think ND's stock went up this week after absolutely hammering Clemson and GA Tech with Young back in the lineup and UNC taking down NC State.

But on an indvidual-ballot level, I could see voters taking into account the head-to-head and wanting to put UConn above ND.

 

[bbballfan23]

Reasonable prediction. However, the gap between ND and Oregon was only two points last week. It was basically a tie. So it would be a little strange if UConn landed in between them.

If anything, I would think ND's stock went up this week after absolutely hammering Clemson and GA Tech with Young back in the lineup and UNC taking down NC State.

But on an indvidual-ballot level, I could see voters taking into account the head-to-head and wanting to put UConn above ND.

UConn will be 5, voters don’t seem to care who the 2 losses were against & that they were on the road. They’re just ready for new faces at the top.

 

[Plebe]

Reasonable prediction. However, the gap between ND and Oregon was only two points last week. It was basically a tie. So it would be a little strange if UConn landed in between them.

If anything, I would think ND's stock went up this week after absolutely hammering Clemson and GA Tech with Young back in the lineup and UNC taking down NC State.

But on an indvidual-ballot level, I could see voters taking into account the head-to-head and wanting to put UConn above ND.

I was very close to predicting UConn at #5. And in fact if I were filling out a ballot, that's where I'd put them.

 

[ochoopsfan]

No drop for Utah with 2 losses, even if they were to UO and OSU, on the road.

 

[mbr33ct]

1. Baylor
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. ND
5. Uconn
6. UNC (joking of course but will they crack the top 25?)

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

UConn will be 5, voters don’t seem to care who the 2 losses were against & that they were on the road. They’re just ready for new faces at the top.

"...just ready for new faces at the top"....seems like an illogical reason for ranking Teams...filled with bias and unfairness. Putting UCONN at 5, but having ND, Oregon, Louisville and Baylor above them doesn't put new faces in the top 5... the same teams for the past 3 or so years. It may end up that way through the "eye test"... but lets remember, ND lost to UNC who has NINE losses...the two teams UCONN lost to have a COMBINED TWO losses.

 

[mbr33ct]

"...just ready for new faces at the top"....seems like an illogical reason for ranking Teams...filled with bias and unfairness. Putting UCONN at 5, but having ND, Oregon, Louisville and Baylor above them doesn't put new faces in the top 5... the same teams for the past 3 or so years. It may end up that way through the "eye test"... but lets remember, ND lost to UNC who has NINE losses...the two teams UCONN lost to have a COMBINED TWO losses.

Don't forget, we're talking about the voters of these polls. For one Debbie Antonelli is ready to move UConn to Siberia, if she has the chance.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Don't forget, we're talking about the voters of these polls. For one Debbie Antonelli is ready to move UConn to Siberia, if she has the chance.

That's why I am so glad the NC is determined on the basketball court by those who "play the game" and not by "people who vote"

 

[hussybulldog]

Is that your own opinion or you just don’t want to contridict to the upcoming AP poll?

I was very close to predicting UConn at #5. And in fact if I were filling out a ballot, that's where I'd put them.

 

[Fightin Choke]

"...just ready for new faces at the top"....seems like an illogical reason for ranking Teams...filled with bias and unfairness. Putting UCONN at 5, but having ND, Oregon, Louisville and Baylor above them doesn't put new faces in the top 5... the same teams for the past 3 or so years. It may end up that way through the "eye test"... but lets remember, ND lost to UNC who has NINE losses...the two teams UCONN lost to have a COMBINED TWO losses.

The reason that @bbballfan23 suggested is NOT how the voters will determine their ballots. You seem to be very convinced that the quantity/quality of losses is the most important determinant, for poll voters, for Creme, and for the selection committee. But the committee values good wins more than bad losses. I know that @Plebe and @vowelguy have explained this many times on this board, probably in response to some of your posts. Notre Dame has more high quality wins, which is why they are presently a 1-seed and Creme has UConn as a 2-seed, despite the fact that UConn beat ND convincingly in South Bend.

As for what the voters contemplate, who knows? It's probably different factors for each voter and I'll bet sometimes biases get in the way. But we don't have to worry what voters say because the tournament decides the champ.

 

[Vowelguy]

1. Baylor
2. Louisville (+1)
3. Oregon (+1)
4. Notre Dame (+1)
5. UConn (-3)
6. Miss St
7. Oregon St (+2)
8. Marquette (+2)
9. Stanford (-1)
10. NC State (-3)
11. Maryland
12. South Carolina (+4)
13. Gonzaga (+2)
14. TAMU (+6)
15. Texas (-3)
16. Iowa (-3)
17. Utah (-3)
18. Syracuse
19. Kentucky
20. Rutgers (-3)
21. Arizona St
22. Michigan St
23. Iowa St
24. Florida St
25. UNC (new)

 

[Florida Fan]

I could see them dropping to anywhere between 3 and 5.

There will also be some shuffling in the 7-10 range, after the losses by Stanford and NC State. Also major movement in the 12-16 range due to losses by Texas, Iowa and Rutgers.

My prediction:

1. Baylor
2. Louisville (+1)
3. Oregon (+1)
4. UConn (-2)
5. Notre Dame
6. Miss St
7. Oregon St (+2)
8. Marquette (+2)
9. Stanford (-1)
10. NC State (-3)
11. Maryland
12. South Carolina (+4)
13. Gonzaga (+2)
14. Utah
15. Texas (-3)
16. Iowa (-3)
17. Syracuse (+1)
18. Kentucky (+1)
19. Texas A&M (+1)
20. Arizona St (+1)
21. Rutgers (-4)
22. Michigan St
23. Iowa St
24. North Carolina (NR)
25. Florida St (-1)

Dropping out: BYU
Still unranked: Tennessee (had to throw that in there to end on a positive)

The current ranking changes reflects previous comments on WCB parity, but I believe ND is the best college team when they have a full team and are focused. We have the best team when we are playing inspired defense, shooting 70 % and aren't beat up or hurt.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

The reason that @bbballfan23 suggested is NOT how the voters will determine their ballots. You seem to be very convinced that the quantity/quality of losses is the most important determinant, for poll voters, for Creme, and for the selection committee. But the committee values good wins more than bad losses. I know that @Plebe and @vowelguy have explained this many times on this board, probably in response to some of your posts. Notre Dame has more high quality wins, which is why they are presently a 1-seed and Creme has UConn as a 2-seed, despite the fact that UConn beat ND convincingly in South Bend.

As for what the voters contemplate, who knows? It's probably different factors for each voter and I'll bet sometimes biases get in the way. But we don't have to worry what voters say because the tournament decides the champ.

Thank You... and No...they did not explain the process to my comments.

IMHO, my view is just as logical... UCONN beat ND (ranked #1 at the time) at their place by 18...i.e. a VERY GOOD WIN. UCONN has lost to #1 and likely #2 at each Team's home court...i.e., NOT bad losses. UCONN has beaten every other team they played (pretty or not, they were still Ws)....including those that were unranked...as opposed to ND. That's all I'm saying...and it seems to make sense that UCONN's two losses should "hurt less" than ND's two losses... but clearly my logic doesn't over ride voter bias. AND, as we both said, the NC is decided on the court, not in a room of "talking heads" or by someone sitting at a desk deciding which team He or She "likes" today when they fill out their ranking. This is of course a major reason NCAA Football went to their current playoff system (as imperfect as it is...but other constraints are at work there).

 

[Plebe]

Is that your own opinion or you just don’t want to contridict to the upcoming AP poll?

That's my opinion, based on how the teams have been playing for the past month or so. UConn just hasn't looked sharp at all.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Thank You... and No...they did not explain the process to my comments.

IMHO, my view is just as logical... UCONN beat ND (ranked #1 at the time) at their place by 18...i.e. a VERY GOOD WIN. UCONN has lost to #1 and likely #2 at each Team's home court...i.e., NOT bad losses. UCONN has beaten every other team they played (pretty or not, they were still Ws)....including those that were unranked...as opposed to ND. That's all I'm saying...and it seems to make sense that UCONN's two losses should "hurt less" than ND's two losses... but clearly my logic doesn't over ride voter bias. AND, as we both said, the NC is decided on the court, not in a room of "talking heads" or by someone sitting at a desk deciding which team He or She "likes" today when they fill out their ranking. This is of course a major reason NCAA Football went to their current playoff system (as imperfect as it is...but other constraints are at work there).

No, you're not quite following my line of thought. UConn's two losses are definitely better than Notre Dame's 2 losses, but the quality of wins is even more important in the minds of the selection committee (and Notre Dame has that advantage over UConn in spades). The poll voters probably also consider the quality of wins as opposed to just the W-L record, but clearly not as much as the selection committee (cf Maryland's poll vs. seeding a couple of years ago and Baylor's last year).

 

[Plebe]

OK... that tracks... but
(1) Jackie Young DID play when UCONN beat ND on their Home Court by 18 pts.
(2) ND lost to an unranked UNC Team, that has shown little or nothing before that game... some may have expected that they could/should have won that game with 1, 2, or more starters taking the night off... I suspect MM surely expected a W that game, even without Jackie.
(3) UCONN's losses have been to the two teams likely ranked #1 and #2 this week,on their courts.
(4) Charlie Creme seems to make some fan base upset every year...and his "bracketology" does not always (or often??) match up with the Committee's rankings.

None of it really matters in the end... the team that's going to win the NC has to be the one who "brings it" for those final 6 games.

You've selected two specific data points, but the committee will evaluate the resumes holistically.

UConn's and ND's best wins more or less cancel each other out. From there the committee is looking at "Who else have you beaten?" And again, ND's catalog of quality wins far exceeds UConn's. The loss to UNC, in light of Young's injury, is barely a tiny blip alongside the large discrepancy in quality wins.

It certainly doesn't hurt UConn to have lost to Louisville and Baylor, but it means their entire resume hangs very heavily on a single win, and that's just probably not enough for a #1 seed.

 

[Jmsdawg]

IS Charlie Creme "in the room" during the Tournament selection process? IF NOT, then HIS statement that "ND's place as #1 seed is not questionned"... should not be taken as the final word. ND lost 2 times... to UCONN and an UNRANKED (at the time) UNC team. At the same point in the season, UCONN has lost 2 times... to the Current #1 and #3 teams (with #3 likely to be #2 this week). HOW can that not keep UCONN ranked above ND??

Good question, how does ND rank ahead of UConn. As of today, how can ND be a number 1 seed?

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

No, you're not quite following my line of thought. UConn's two losses are definitely better than Notre Dame's 2 losses, but the quality of wins is even more important in the minds of the selection committee (and Notre Dame has that advantage over UConn in spades). The poll voters probably also consider the quality of wins as opposed to just the W-L record, but clearly not as much as the selection committee (cf Maryland's poll vs. seeding a couple of years ago and Baylor's last year).

I gotcha... and I did understand your "quality wins" point.... my response was that both ND and UCONN have beaten everyone else they played...besides the 2 losses...and that even though they were not always pretty, they were still wins. As they used to say back in the day... "A win is a win"... And, yes, I understand, ND's wins have been vs a "higher rated" over all bunch..(not completely under either team's control)...but again, and not to beat a dead horse... UCONN did beat ND, on their floor, by a bunch. I know I'm a UCONN Fan and not ND fan...so that is my bias... but the logic path's in my brain tell me that it's gotta be hard to put ND above UCONN based on their head to head...

March will come in just a few weeks...and the Madness will begin...

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

You've selected two specific data points, but the committee will evaluate the resumes holistically.

UConn's and ND's best wins more or less cancel each other out. From there the committee is looking at "Who else have you beaten?" And again, ND's catalog of quality wins far exceeds UConn's. The loss to UNC, in light of Young's injury, is barely a tiny blip alongside the large discrepancy in quality wins.

It certainly doesn't hurt UConn to have lost to Louisville and Baylor, but it means their entire resume hangs solely on the ND win, and that's just probably not enough for a #1 seed.

Thank You and I get it.
But, You over simplified my comments.
Fortunately the "talking heads" and "voters" won't decide the NC.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Good question, how does ND rank ahead of UConn. As of today, how can ND be a number 1 seed?

You could read the replies by me or @Plebe if you want, or you could look at Massey. ND, Miss St. and Baylor are all virtually tied atop his rating. Notre Dame is ranked 3rd, but has a higher Power Rating, which determines who beats whom in Massey's predictions (i.e., Massey predicts the Irish would beat Baylor and Miss St at a neutral site). UConn is ranked 6th presently, but is 4th in Power Rating. I do not believe that voters consult Massey, but I mention that to point out how rational voters might rank Notre Dame above UConn. As for the committee members, I believe they consult any data they want in evaluating which teams make the field and then later as they seed the teams.