AP is out - with a lot of changes | Page 2 | The Boneyard

AP is out - with a lot of changes

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triaddukefan said:
During the offseason I was thinking Duke would finish 5th or 6th in the conference.. After going to the scrimmage and exhibition.... my expectations were increased to no lower than 4th.... with a good shot at #3.... with a run to the Sweet 16. 1) ND 2) FSU 3) Louisville 4) Duke 5) Syracuse 6) Miami 7) NC State 8) UVA 9) Ga Tech and then the rest. The top 7 being NCAA tournament teams.. with UVA on the bubble.

Now that the non-conference season is over... I would move up VPI to #7 and drop NC State to #8 with the ACC getting 8 teams in the NCAA's. Im not sure who is better between Miami and Syracuse.
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Man, the ACC must be THE toughest conference this season; not the Pac 12 or SEC.
 
donalddoowop said:
Man, the ACC must be THE toughest conference this season; not the Pac 12 or SEC.
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With ND getting upset by NC State... it makes the conference race much more interesting. ND still may come out on top.... but I dont see them plowing through the regular season and tournament like in previous years.

The sad thing is (for me) ... this year's conference tournament looks to be a great one..... unfortunately it wont be held ten minutes from my driveway as it has been the past 17 years :(:(:(:(Head bangHead bangHead bang
 
donalddoowop said:
Maybe that is why Baylor has looked so good lately and believe me, they look very good. I believe they should be ranked second. I'm glad Uconn played them when they did. Why? Because Uconn seems tired and worn down now and does not really need that big of a challenge for the immediate future, imo. Uconn's conference schedule has come just at the right time. We probably won't know just how good Baylor is until the NCAA Tournament because there are not many strong challenges on their conference schedule.
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Baylor has played 7 games OOC that are questionable, 1 or 2 lower conference teas is okay, but 7 is ridiculous..
 
triaddukefan said:
With ND getting upset by NC State... it makes the conference race much more interesting. ND still may come out on top.... but I dont see them plowing through the regular season and tournament like in previous years.

The sad thing is (for me) ... this year's conference tournament looks to be a great one..... unfortunately it wont be held ten minutes from my driveway as it has been the past 17 years :(:(:(:(Head bangHead bangHead bang
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You can thank the NC legislature. ironically the games are moving to South Carolina who had not held NCAA games for decades b/c of the confederate flag.
 
Schoup said:
You can thank the NC legislature. ironically the games are moving to South Carolina who had not held NCAA games for decades b/c of the confederate flag.
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You dont have to lecture me..... I already know Head bang
 
donalddoowop said:
Maybe that is why Baylor has looked so good lately and believe me, they look very good. I believe they should be ranked second. I'm glad Uconn played them when they did. Why? Because Uconn seems tired and worn down now and does not really need that big of a challenge for the immediate future, imo. Uconn's conference schedule has come just at the right time. We probably won't know just how good Baylor is until the NCAA Tournament because there are not many strong challenges on their conference schedule.
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You likely have to look at the 'away' schedule for significant challenges - Baylor's home-court advantage is usually a bridge too far for the Big 12. Their toughest away games, therefore, are @ #17 WVU (this Wed.), @ #25 KSU, @ #15 Texas and @ #20 OU. @ OKST may be a stiff test as well.
 
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Fairfield Fan said:
But look at the OOC schedules of those ACC teams: they're mostly cakewalks themselves. Few of those ACC teams are scheduling tough teams early on. And take a look at the records of those AAC teams. They're improving. So overall, UConn's schedule is tough as nails, just like in the old days!
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No it's not. UConn's SOS is #1 now it will plummet b/c of the conf schedule. They will play 1 ranked team in conference. For example, B12,teams will play at least 5 and they play every team twice. Geno is scheduling a harder OOC b/c he knows the conference will not be a challenge at all. The early season OOC is really how he finds out what he has b/c the AAC games are not going to tel him who can handle pressure, close games, etc... UConn's only game they have any chance to lose before NCAA is S Carolina. That would not be the case if they were in ACC, B12, etc... Those conferences have 2 or more teams in the top 10 that would be a threat. UConn would can literally pay poorly and still win the AAC in a cake walk. Geno knows the challenge in the AAC is not winning but keeping players sharp b/c the competition is inferior. It's work to keep players on point and not ding things they can get away with in conf but can lose games in NCAA
 
Schoup said:
Baylor has played 7 games OOC that are questionable, 1 or 2 lower conference teas is okay, but 7 is ridiculous..
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Lets see ...
#3 Maryland has played 8 dogs
#4 Miss St - 10
#5 SC - 6
#6 FSU - 7
#7 ND - 7
#8 Louisville - 10
#9 UCLA - 8
#10 Standford - 8
It is what teams do. And it used to be more of what Uconn did as well when their conference wasn't composed of many of those dogs. Holy Cross, Hartford, VT, etc. Most teams play half of their non-conference schedule against dogs and some of them seldom if ever play a ranked team OOC. WVU climbed to #12 on the back of going 10-0 against absolute cream puffs and 2-0 against Auburn and Ole Miss which are not considered cream puffs simply because they are in a P5 and play equally dreadful OOCs
 
Schoup said:
No it's not. UConn's SOS is #1 now it will plummet b/c of the conf schedule. They will play 1 ranked team in conference. For example, B12,teams will play at least 5 and they play every team twice. Geno is scheduling a harder OOC b/c he knows the conference will not be a challenge at all. The early season OOC is really how he finds out what he has b/c the AAC games are not going to tel him who can handle pressure, close games, etc... UConn's only game they have any chance to lose before NCAA is S Carolina. That would not be the case if they were in ACC, B12, etc... Those conferences have 2 or more teams in the top 10 that would be a threat. UConn would can literally pay poorly and still win the AAC in a cake walk. Geno knows the challenge in the AAC is not winning but keeping players sharp b/c the competition is inferior. It's work to keep players on point and not ding things they can get away with in conf but can lose games in NCAA
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But, of course, the ACC teams are no challenge whatsoever to UConn either. Connecticut destroys ACC teams whenever he plays them! Which is why the ACC teams refuse to schedule UConn anymore!

The AAC is similar to the Pac 12 a few years ago. Stanford ripped through its conference schedule after scheduling tough schools early in the season. But despite the weak conference schedule, Stanford was still tough. And now the Pac 12 is improving, as is the AAC, though at a slower pace.

And look at the ACC: several of those teams are pretty weak as well. And Notre Dame, a Big East refugee, absolutely clobbered everyone in the ACC until recently. So seems to me that UConn is right where it needs to be.
 
Schoup said:
UConn's SOS is #1 now it will plummet b/c of the conf schedule.
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According to Massey:
SSF (SOS for the full season)
1. UConn
2. South Carolina
3. Texas
4. Notre Dame
5. UCLA
6. Washington State
7. Arizona State
8. Baylor
9. Stanford
10. Tennessee
 
MJL243 said:
According to Massey:
SSF (SOS for the full season)
1. UConn
2. South Carolina
3. Texas
4. Notre Dame
5. UCLA
6. Washington State
7. Arizona State
8. Baylor
9. Stanford
10. Tennessee
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You do know it's impossible to do SOS for a full season now. SOS done correctly changes as each game occurs and is based on your opponents and opponents opponents. For example if teams you beat in november who were ranked high under perform and lose 10 games, it changes your SOS. SOS is dynamics. Massey thus is using a BS method of SOS. Probably something like the BS method that NCAA does for fball where they calculate opponents record from the previous season and rank based on winning %. or the BS method where beating a 12-0 team from Bg Sky is valued the same as beating a 12-0 P5. If you want real sports stats with correct methodology look at Sagarin SOS.
 
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Schoup said:
You do know it's impossible to do SOS for a full season now. SOS done correctly changes as each game occurs and is based on your opponents and opponents opponents. For example if teams you beat in november who were ranked high under perform and lose 10 games, it changes your SOS. SOS is dynamics. Massey thus is using a BS method of SOS. Probably something like the BS method that NCAA does for fball where they calculate opponents record from the previous season and rank based on winning %. or the BS method where beating a 12-0 team from Bg Sky is valued the same as beating a 12-0 P5. If you want real sports stats with correct methodology look at Sagarin SOS.
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Massey has an instantaneous SOS calculation just like all the other services. Then they also have the season SOS, which is probably just an extrapolation based on current SOS ratings for the future opponents. (the latter is of course subject to change as the season goes on, but will converge toward the final instantaneous SOS as expected.)

Massey does use an uncommon or unique method to actually calculate the instantaneous SOS, and I think it's actually among the best. It does a much better job parsing the schedules of statistical outliers like UConn, correctly weighing its strong OOC schedule more than its weak conference schedule:

Theory: Massey Schedule Ratings
 
Nuyoika said:
Baylor back to where they started but with a new overlord ;). I'm sure Mulkey is thrilled.
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You can be assured of that. She was irked when ND lost to UCONN by 11 at home and didn't drop a spot or two.

Rankings don't matter to UCONN because of those 11 trophies, but when competing for top talent a ranking may make other programs look more appealing to a recruit. With all the talent that UCONN has coming in players like Williams and Smith from the 2018 class may be looking for a program that is highly ranked where they think they can get playing time and make an immediate impact.
 
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easttexastrash said:
You can be assured of that. She was irked when ND lost to UCONN by 11 at home and didn't drop a spot or two.

Rankings don't matter to UCONN because of those 11 trophies, but when competing for top talent a ranking may make other programs look more appealing to a recruit. With all the talent that UCONN has coming in players like Williams and Smith from the 2018 class may be looking for a program that is highly ranked where they think they can get playing time and make an immediate impact.
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Not sure that specific position within the top ten makes any significant difference to top prospects in the recruiting game - it is amazing how wide the gap between fanatics knowledge of their program and their main competitors and HS ballers knowledge tends to be. And Kim with her two NCs in this century stands above all others in terms of achievements with Muffet, Gary, and Tara the only others to have any hardware.

If Baylor being ranked tenth (should that ever happen) rather than second was going to make a difference in a recruit committing, I am not sure that you really want to get that recruit. If being 4th rather than 2nd was going to have an effect, I am sure you don't want that recruit! :eek::cool:
 
UcMiami said:
Not sure that specific position within the top ten makes any significant difference to top prospects in the recruiting game - it is amazing how wide the gap between fanatics knowledge of their program and their main competitors and HS ballers knowledge tends to be. And Kim with her two NCs in this century stands above all others in terms of achievements with Muffet, Gary, and Tara the only others to have any hardware.

If Baylor being ranked tenth (should that ever happen) rather than second was going to make a difference in a recruit committing, I am not sure that you really want to get that recruit. If being 4th rather than 2nd was going to have an effect, I am sure you don't want that recruit! :eek::cool:
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We want ALL the recruits...every post player this side of the Mississippi, included.
 
Any simil
Schoup said:
I would put S Carolina #2 b/c they have played a tougher OOC. Baylor schedule is ranked 127 as of now and SC is #8[/QUOTEAny similar comments about Miss State? Several years ago, S. Carolina seemed hidden under the big names, then beat UConn. Wondering how some project either S. Carolina or Miss State finishing season.
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Schoup said:
Take your meds. You're spouting delusional rantings as many do on here to try to pretend the AAC is not an absolute cake walk conference. Please stop the nonsense...The AAC put a whopping 2 teams in the NCAA Tourney. UConn is not where they need to be or want to be , it's where they are stuck and will be for sometime.
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Yeah, but the Uconn winning streak against ACC teams is really incredible - I think it goes back at least 8 years! There was one year when Uconn had played I think the top four teams in the ACC and beaten them all - i joked that Uconn should have been awarded both the BE regular season trophy and the ACC trophy that year! Of course their winning streak against the Big 10 is equally impressive. And the SEC. The winning streak against the Big12 is 3+ years long.
 
What does "good conference" mean anyway? You play X number of games the coaches with balls (pardon my use of words) play the toughest OOC, the wimps play cupcakes, end of story.
 
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triaddukefan said:
Lets see if you change your tune by next Sunday around 5pm :cool:

Big game tonight..... then two road games at GaTech and FSU. The only time this season we faced a decent opponent on the road.... we lost.
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Indeed!!
 
The AP poll is alot better than the coach's poll... especially considering last night's results.
 
Plebe said:
You forgot to mention the win over #12.
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What Triad said. Teams in WCBB get rewarded in the rankings based on their records regardless of who they have played. Just look at Baylor last season.

It will interesting to see where WVU is ranked after their games against Baylor and OU this week and then UT twice and Baylor again by the end of January.

You'll notice that the coaches are quite as impressed with KSU.
 
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