Andy Katz AAC 2018-19 Preview | Page 6 | The Boneyard

Andy Katz AAC 2018-19 Preview

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Good post. As I said in another thread, people are throwing around potential records that would quite literally represent one of the greatest turnarounds in NCAA history.

I'm quite confident in Hurley and staff, but I do not think he's a reincarnation of Jim Calhoun and John Wooden.

He doesn't have to be Wooden.

And please don't be Cunningham, Larry Farmer, Walt Hazzard, Jim Harrick or Steve Lavin.

Just be a damn good competitive coach ... and get us into March. Then we can find out if we can advance AND at that point, Danny Hurley proves how good he is.
 

intlzncster

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He doesn't have to be Wooden.

And please don't be Cunningham, Larry Farmer, Walt Hazzard, Jim Harrick or Steve Lavin.

Just be a damn good competitive coach ... and get us into March. Then we can find out if we can advance AND at that point, Danny Hurley proves how good he is.

I'd agree. I'm just saying, some of the records being thrown around likely wouldn't be accomplished by anybody.
 
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Well that's the thing, I mean there's lots of reasons the program is where it is right now - and one of them was just cast off - but a lot of those reasons are still in the program.

I'm not lighting the kids on fire - they're trying; but they've either been poorly coaches, haven't lived up to the hype, have been hurt, haven't put the effort in themselves, etc. Choose whichever one of those reasons and you can literally apply one or all of them to every guy returning on the roster. And while Hurley coming in will help a lot - it's not going to necessarily fix it.

The one area I do think we stand a chance of being very, very good is the backcourt. We have ostensibly the best player in the conference in Adams and I'm not sure there's a PG in the conference with as much potential as Gilbert. On their own - they should be able to steal a few wins as they're the two guys who are that good. I've always liked Vital as a role player and I think Smith gives them some good depth as a 3/4th guard. Anything from Brendan Adams is a big plus. To me - the back court is as good and has as much upside as any of the back courts we'd had on good-ish Calhoun teams. I have absolutely no worries about our guards.

Everything else though... it's a walking, talking lottery ticket.

The front court is just not good. Yakwe is a shot-blocky guy who should help defensively, but gives you next to nothing offensively. Carlton showed signs of being really promising at times last year; at other times looked completely lost. Diarra is hurt. Cobb is half a year or so removed from almost being thrown off the team. He looks interesting at first glance but you get under the hood, and you're looking at a JUCO guy who was as JUCO as JUCO comes. So of four guys in your front court - one guy is off the board immediately (Diarra), one guy you can genuinely see making it at this level and competing (Carlton) and the other two are bit players at best. Even IF Carlton turns into Thabeet overnight, there's just not enough depth there. To have something *kind of resembling depth* you need MULTIPLE things to go right and even if they do it's still probably not enough. Again, I'm hopeful and encouraged by the efforts and attitudes these kids are all showing, but at the end of the day you have the talent or you don't and I just don't think any of these guys brings a lot to the table.

To me, it's the forwards will make or break the team's fortunes, IMO. Sid Wilson could be a huge get. Polley and Whaley showed stretches where they seemed to be talented but raw players and other times just prospecty guys who didn't have a clue. Those three guys though - if they can be competitive, we can play postseason basketball. They're all good enough to take a step forward. But there's also enough track record of not producing results to make me be really skeptical.

So in a nutshell:

Backcourt - Excellent
Front Court - Bad
Forwards - Take a guess

My last thought on it all is that there's a big piece of me that really wonders if we know anything about how good any of these guys are if for no other reason than the fact that Ollie was that bad of a head coach. These kids were basically coaching and trying to develop themselves the last few years. So who knows - a little direction and structure could make a real, legitimate difference. Part of me is kind of hoping for that. But it's also worth noting the depth of the damage Ollie did to the program the last 3 years or so - and that it can't just be undone magically. And the tip of that damage comes from bringing in players that just aren't good enough. Great kids, sure - but not good enough.

Hurley's job will be to get every drop of basketball he can out of the mediocre guys and develop the young talent as quickly as possible. Love everything he's doing so far, but if this team wins 20 games this season and makes a nice little NIT run, I'll be over the moon. Anything past that is pure gravy.

So I dunno. I think this is genuinely a 2-3 year rebuild.
 
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Husky25

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I am a UConn fan, but life gets in the way of following, let alone watching, other programs with any semblance of regularity. That said, I think any prediction where the regular season win totals starts with a "2" in the tens column or losses number in the single digits is an indication that the predictor is outside his/her own mind.

The 2017-18 Huskies was one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams I can remember and their best from behind the arc declared for the draft, foregoing his remaining eligibility. Not one member of the front court eclipses 6'-9" IRL and only one casts a shadow when standing sideways. Could they surprise? Absolutely. Will they? I'd say anything more than NIT Sweet 16 is house money. Shame really that there was a time where I might consider anything short of the NCAA Sweet 16 as under-performing.
 
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I am a UConn fan, but life gets in the way of following, let alone watching, other programs with any semblance of regularity. That said, I think any prediction where the regular season win totals starts with a "2" in the tens column or losses number in the single digits is an indication that the predictor is outside his/her own mind.

The 2017-18 Huskies was one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams I can remember and their best from behind the arc declared for the draft, foregoing his remaining eligibility. Not one member of the front court eclipses 6'-9" IRL and only one casts a shadow when standing sideways. Could they surprise? Absolutely. Will they? I'd say anything more than NIT Sweet 16 is house money. Shame really that there was a time where I might consider anything short of the NCAA Sweet 16 as under-performing.

That, basically.

I mean the damage was just so deep and the development is so non-existent with what we have - it's a talent issue more than anything and that doesn't magically undo itself with a new coach. It's gonna take time. I do think, however - that people will be surprised at how much better we *look* next year - just in terms of organization, effort, all of it. The difference and vibe is already dramatically different.
 
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Well that's the thing, I mean there's lots of reasons the program is where it is right now - and one of them was just cast off - but a lot of those reasons are still in the program.

I'm not lighting the kids on fire - they're trying; but they've either been poorly coaches, haven't lived up to the hype, have been hurt, haven't put the effort in themselves, etc. Choose whichever one of those reasons and you can literally apply one or all of them to every guy returning on the roster. And while Hurley coming in will help a lot - it's not going to necessarily fix it.

The one area I do think we stand a chance of being very, very good is the backcourt. We have ostensibly the best player in the conference in Adams and I'm not sure there's a PG in the conference with as much potential as Gilbert. On their own - they should be able to steal a few wins as they're the two guys who are that good. I've always liked Vital as a role player and I think Smith gives them some good depth as a 3/4th guard. Anything from Brendan Adams is a big plus. To me - the back court is as good and has as much upside as any of the back courts we'd had on good-ish Calhoun teams. I have absolutely no worries about our guards.

Everything else though... it's a walking, talking lottery ticket.

Even the guards, our hope and the place on the roster we're penciling in as great, have a huge question mark: shooting. It's 2018, and 0 of our 5 guards have had a season shooting over 37.5% from 3 in college. Let alone 40%. 10 seasons combined. 0 above 37.5%. 2 above 35%. It's bad roster construction in 2018. I don't think it's an accident that Gaffney and Bouknight can both stroke it.

We can't unlock our full potential as a team unless guys hit from deep and provide spacing for Jalen and Alterique on drives. Heck, we'll be hard pressed to be .500 if we shoot as poorly as we did last year. There are reasons for optimism, but it's another question mark on a team with 0 spots in the lineup without them.
 
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Well that's the thing, I mean there's lots of reasons the program is where it is right now - and one of them was just cast off - but a lot of those reasons are still in the program.

I'm not lighting the kids on fire - they're trying; but they've either been poorly coaches, haven't lived up to the hype, have been hurt, haven't put the effort in themselves, etc. Choose whichever one of those reasons and you can literally apply one or all of them to every guy returning on the roster. And while Hurley coming in will help a lot - it's not going to necessarily fix it.

The one area I do think we stand a chance of being very, very good is the backcourt. We have ostensibly the best player in the conference in Adams and I'm not sure there's a PG in the conference with as much potential as Gilbert. On their own - they should be able to steal a few wins as they're the two guys who are that good. I've always liked Vital as a role player and I think Smith gives them some good depth as a 3/4th guard. Anything from Brendan Adams is a big plus. To me - the back court is as good and has as much upside as any of the back courts we'd had on good-ish Calhoun teams. I have absolutely no worries about our guards.

Everything else though... it's a walking, talking lottery ticket.

The front court is just not good. Yakwe is a shot-blocky guy who should help defensively, but gives you next to nothing offensively. Carlton showed signs of being really promising at times last year; at other times looked completely lost. Diarra is hurt. Cobb is half a year or so removed from almost being thrown off the team. He looks interesting at first glance but you get under the hood, and you're looking at a JUCO guy who was as JUCO as JUCO comes. So of four guys in your front court - one guy is off the board immediately (Diarra), one guy you can genuinely see making it at this level and competing (Carlton) and the other two are bit players at best. Even IF Carlton turns into Thabeet overnight, there's just not enough depth there. To have something *kind of resembling depth* you need MULTIPLE things to go right and even if they do it's still probably not enough. Again, I'm hopeful and encouraged by the efforts and attitudes these kids are all showing, but at the end of the day you have the talent or you don't and I just don't think any of these guys brings a lot to the table.

To me, it's the forwards will make or break the team's fortunes, IMO. Sid Wilson could be a huge get. Polley and Whaley showed stretches where they seemed to be talented but raw players and other times just prospecty guys who didn't have a clue. Those three guys though - if they can be competitive, we can play postseason basketball. They're all good enough to take a step forward. But there's also enough track record of not producing results to make me be really skeptical.

So in a nutshell:

Backcourt - Excellent
Front Court - Bad
Forwards - Take a guess

My last thought on it all is that there's a big piece of me that really wonders if we know anything about how good any of these guys are if for no other reason than the fact that Ollie was that bad of a head coach. These kids were basically coaching and trying to develop themselves the last few years. So who knows - a little direction and structure could make a real, legitimate difference. Part of me is kind of hoping for that. But it's also worth noting the depth of the damage Ollie did to the program the last 3 years or so - and that it can't just be undone magically. And the tip of that damage comes from bringing in players that just aren't good enough. Great kids, sure - but not good enough.

Hurley's job will be to get every drop of basketball he can out of the mediocre guys and develop the young talent as quickly as possible. Love everything he's doing so far, but if this team wins 20 games this season and makes a nice little NIT run, I'll be over the moon. Anything past that is pure gravy.

So I dunno. I think this is genuinely a 2-3 year rebuild.

Well thought out and well said, but we Casual Fans will remain IRrational until we hit double digit losses and then try to rationalize our way out of it.
 
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Even the guards, our hope and the place on the roster we're penciling in as great, have a huge question mark: shooting. It's 2018, and 0 of our 5 guards have had a season shooting over 37.5% from 3 in college. Let alone 40%. 10 seasons combined. 0 above 37.5%. 2 above 35%. It's bad roster construction in 2018. I don't think it's an accident that Gaffney and Bouknight can both stroke it.

We can't unlock our full potential as a team unless guys hit from deep and provide spacing for Jalen and Alterique on drives. Heck, we'll be hard pressed to be .500 if we shoot as poorly as we did last year. There are reasons for optimism, but it's another question mark on a team with 0 spots in the lineup without them.

Good points, but:
Hurley has them focused and learning how to play together
Hurley has them more fit and stronger
League lost a lot of its better players
Spirits seem high
Loss of Larrier will easily be mitigated by a healthy Gilbert, improved Adams and Polley, and addition of Wilson
Front court will be better because of "Magic" Cobb
All good for at least 22 wins
 

Husky25

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Any chance on sharing your calculations with the casual mathameticians? I’m not following.
What's with the "casual" reference? Are you replying to Chief's burner account?
 
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Even the guards, our hope and the place on the roster we're penciling in as great, have a huge question mark: shooting. It's 2018, and 0 of our 5 guards have had a season shooting over 37.5% from 3 in college. Let alone 40%. 10 seasons combined. 0 above 37.5%. 2 above 35%. It's bad roster construction in 2018. I don't think it's an accident that Gaffney and Bouknight can both stroke it.

We can't unlock our full potential as a team unless guys hit from deep and provide spacing for Jalen and Alterique on drives. Heck, we'll be hard pressed to be .500 if we shoot as poorly as we did last year. There are reasons for optimism, but it's another question mark on a team with 0 spots in the lineup without them.

That's my point, basically. I mean I think the ***fewest*** questions are at guard and I honestly expect that Adams and Gilbert are flat-out talented enough to figure it out. It's the one thing that sure - it's a question mark - but not a boldface one, if that makes sense. I mean everything else though - you're 1,000% in line with what i'm saying. Like I said - even if everything answers in the affirmative, we're a fringe tournament team with massive depth issues. That's if everything goes RIGHT.

Good points, but:
Hurley has them focused and learning how to play together
Hurley has them more fit and stronger
League lost a lot of its better players
Spirits seem high
Loss of Larrier will easily be mitigated by a healthy Gilbert, improved Adams and Polley, and addition of Wilson
Front court will be better because of "Magic" Cobb
All good for at least 22 wins

-The first two things are correct.
-The second is meaningless. Even though the league is way down this year, we're not winning it. We're not a very good team yet.
-Third thing is correct
-I mean, Larrier isn't really much of a loss to worry about filling. Gilbert needs to prove he can be health AND play D1 basketball. Hopefully Adams is better, but he's not good enough to throw a team on his back all on his own. Polley is a fun player, I'm not sure what he is yet, exactly. I saw moments where I loved him last year. I saw moments where I wondered whether he was even good enough to play D1 basketball. I'm not dumping on him, I'm just saying I don't know what to think yet. Wilson I'm extremely interested in seeing.
-The front court is going to suck. Even if Cobb gets better and Carlton continues to figure it out, they have no depth. And neither one of them are world class guys either. Nice players to have on a D1 basketball team, but that's about it.
-"At least" is a monstrous, monstrous push
 

CL82

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Hurley can not magically turn someone into something beyond their abilities.
There's a hard ceiling on capabilities but good coaches push kids beyond their apparent capabilities. I'm not sure that we'll get back the NCAAs this year, but I'm pretty sure that we are going to like what see on the court. I think the BBIQ of this team is going to take a giant leap forward.
 

ctchamps

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That, basically.

I mean the damage was just so deep and the development is so non-existent with what we have - it's a talent issue more than anything and that doesn't magically undo itself with a new coach. It's gonna take time. I do think, however - that people will be surprised at how much better we *look* next year - just in terms of organization, effort, all of it. The difference and vibe is already dramatically different.
Well that's the thing, I mean there's lots of reasons the program is where it is right now - and one of them was just cast off - but a lot of those reasons are still in the program.

I'm not lighting the kids on fire - they're trying; but they've either been poorly coaches, haven't lived up to the hype, have been hurt, haven't put the effort in themselves, etc. Choose whichever one of those reasons and you can literally apply one or all of them to every guy returning on the roster. And while Hurley coming in will help a lot - it's not going to necessarily fix it.

The one area I do think we stand a chance of being very, very good is the backcourt. We have ostensibly the best player in the conference in Adams and I'm not sure there's a PG in the conference with as much potential as Gilbert. On their own - they should be able to steal a few wins as they're the two guys who are that good. I've always liked Vital as a role player and I think Smith gives them some good depth as a 3/4th guard. Anything from Brendan Adams is a big plus. To me - the back court is as good and has as much upside as any of the back courts we'd had on good-ish Calhoun teams. I have absolutely no worries about our guards.

Everything else though... it's a walking, talking lottery ticket.

The front court is just not good. Yakwe is a shot-blocky guy who should help defensively, but gives you next to nothing offensively. Carlton showed signs of being really promising at times last year; at other times looked completely lost. Diarra is hurt. Cobb is half a year or so removed from almost being thrown off the team. He looks interesting at first glance but you get under the hood, and you're looking at a JUCO guy who was as JUCO as JUCO comes. So of four guys in your front court - one guy is off the board immediately (Diarra), one guy you can genuinely see making it at this level and competing (Carlton) and the other two are bit players at best. Even IF Carlton turns into Thabeet overnight, there's just not enough depth there. To have something *kind of resembling depth* you need MULTIPLE things to go right and even if they do it's still probably not enough. Again, I'm hopeful and encouraged by the efforts and attitudes these kids are all showing, but at the end of the day you have the talent or you don't and I just don't think any of these guys brings a lot to the table.

To me, it's the forwards will make or break the team's fortunes, IMO. Sid Wilson could be a huge get. Polley and Whaley showed stretches where they seemed to be talented but raw players and other times just prospecty guys who didn't have a clue. Those three guys though - if they can be competitive, we can play postseason basketball. They're all good enough to take a step forward. But there's also enough track record of not producing results to make me be really skeptical.

So in a nutshell:

Backcourt - Excellent
Front Court - Bad
Forwards - Take a guess

My last thought on it all is that there's a big piece of me that really wonders if we know anything about how good any of these guys are if for no other reason than the fact that Ollie was that bad of a head coach. These kids were basically coaching and trying to develop themselves the last few years. So who knows - a little direction and structure could make a real, legitimate difference. Part of me is kind of hoping for that. But it's also worth noting the depth of the damage Ollie did to the program the last 3 years or so - and that it can't just be undone magically. And the tip of that damage comes from bringing in players that just aren't good enough. Great kids, sure - but not good enough.

Hurley's job will be to get every drop of basketball he can out of the mediocre guys and develop the young talent as quickly as possible. Love everything he's doing so far, but if this team wins 20 games this season and makes a nice little NIT run, I'll be over the moon. Anything past that is pure gravy.

So I dunno. I think this is genuinely a 2-3 year rebuild.
As excellent as your assessment is with regards to our roster I struggle with your position on the number of wins.

The combination of next seasons more favorable schedule compared to this past season plus the AAC projected to be a weaker conference compared to last season should be enough for this roster to get five to six more victories without Hurley's help.

If Gilbert is healthy for an entire season I think he's a net plus over the loss of Terry whom, although his scoring stats were decent, was streaky and imo was poor on defense and turnover prone.

Almost the entire roster is returning and is one year more experienced. Even if the talent is subpar as you claim, that experience factor should count for one more win.

I don't subscribe to moral victories. I don't know how people can objectively claim the team looks better if they lose. Not losing by large margins is a poor qualifier. If the team starts out well they are less likely to "pack it in" then if they lose early and often.

I actually feel this team as constructed affords me the greatest opportunity to evaluate Coach Hurley. I believe he's a terrific coach and should get more out of this team than just style points. I still maintain he gets us twenty five wins, 22 in the regular season, two in the AAC postseason and one in the NCAAs. I've stated this when he announced he was coming to UConn and I'm stubbornly clinging to this projection. #fleudcertified
 

Husky25

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We're doomed bois.

Rick Pitino‏Verified account @RealPitino 2h2 hours ago
Spoke to & saw the @GoBearcatsMBB. Young & hard working group.Talented at 1/2/3 positions. Raw at 4/5 spots, but if they develop, another super season . Jarron Cumberland multi talented scorer/passer.You know they will bring it on defense . Mick’s new renovated arena is special!
Cinci should just preemptively self impose sanctions right now.
 

intlzncster

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As excellent as your assessment is with regards to our roster I struggle with your position on the number of wins.

The combination of next seasons more favorable schedule compared to this past season plus the AAC projected to be a weaker conference compared to last season should be enough for this roster to get five to six more victories without Hurley's help.

If Gilbert is healthy for an entire season I think he's a net plus over the loss of Terry whom, although his scoring stats were decent, was streaky and imo was poor on defense and turnover prone.

Almost the entire roster is returning and is one year more experienced. Even if the talent is subpar as you claim, that experience factor should count for one more win.

I don't subscribe to moral victories. I don't know how people can objectively claim the team looks better if they lose. Not losing by large margins is a poor qualifier. If the team starts out well they are less likely to "pack it in" then if they lose early and often.

I actually feel this team as constructed affords me the greatest opportunity to evaluate Coach Hurley. I believe he's a terrific coach and should get more out of this team than just style points. I still maintain he gets us twenty five wins, 22 in the regular season, two in the AAC postseason and one in the NCAAs. I've stated this when he announced he was coming to UConn and I'm stubbornly clinging to this projection. #fleudcertified

Good post. The schedule, as far as wins is concerned, is VERY favorable. It's hard to overstate that. I've been leading the charge of "We might make the NCAA tournament but nobody should EXPECT to given what the team was last year", and even I have to think it'll be hard for us not to win 18-22 games.

The problem, of course, is that unless we then win MOST of those favorable games and take care of the cupcakes, we're not going dancing considering the expected strength of the conference. We had 10 KenPom 'A' rank games last year (and lost all 10). We'll probably only have 5-7 such games this year with around the same number of 'B' games as last year (6).

Likely Q1 rank games:
Neutral vs. Villanova
Neutral vs. Syracuse
Neutral vs. Iowa/Oregon (possibly Q2)
Neutral vs. Florida St
@ Cincy
@ UCF

Likely Q2 rank games:
Home vs. Arizona
Home vs. UCF
@ Temple
@ Memphis
Home vs. Houston
@ SMU
@ Wichita St

A major conference bubble team (like for example Syracuse a last year) can have 10-15 or so 'A' games and the same amount of 'B' games. Syracuse had 15 and 10 respectively. Syraucse went 6-9 in the 'A' games, but it's the 6 wins that sticks with the committee. Only playing 6, we're going to need to win a majority of them, which is a problem because none of them are at home. Let's hope "Storrs South" is real.
 

CL82

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Cinci should just preemptively self impose sanctions right now.
Wait I thought they'd already agreed not to play more than 1 post season game?
 
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ctchamps

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Good post. The schedule, as far as wins is concerned, is VERY favorable. It's hard to overstate that. I've been leading the charge of "We might make the NCAA tournament but nobody should EXPECT to given what the team was last year", and even I have to think it'll be hard for us not to win 18-22 games.

The problem, of course, is that unless we then win MOST of those favorable games and take care of the cupcakes, we're not going dancing considering the expected strength of the conference. We had 10 KenPom 'A' rank games last year (and lost all 10). We'll probably only have 5-7 such games this year with around the same number of 'B' games as last year (6).

Likely Q1 rank games:
Neutral vs. Villanova
Neutral vs. Syracuse
Neutral vs. Iowa/Oregon (possibly Q2)
Neutral vs. Florida St
@ Cincy
@ UCF

Likely Q2 rank games:
Home vs. Arizona
Home vs. UCF
@ Temple
@ Memphis
Home vs. Houston
@ SMU
@ Wichita St

A major conference bubble team (like for example Syracuse a last year) can have 10-15 or so 'A' games and the same amount of 'B' games. Syracuse had 15 and 10 respectively. Syraucse went 6-9 in the 'A' games, but it's the 6 wins that sticks with the committee. Only playing 6, we're going to need to win a majority of them, which is a problem because none of them are at home. Let's hope "Storrs South" is real.
Love the analysis.
I almost wrote the regular season and AAC postseason victories might only be enough to get an NIT invite based on quality of victories. In that case I believe two or more victories in the NIT’s is plausible with a total of twenty six wins.

I won’t condemn Hurley if this isn’t achieved. Not my style. But I feel it’s a legitimate litmus of measuring Hurley with the important caveat that the current roster has only one player that fits his vision of play. However a caveat to my caveat is that great coaches adjust their approach to coaching to fit the hands they are dealt.
 
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He showed next to no leadership his senior year. That should have been his year, the year after the NIT championship. Instead the team was flat all year, underachieving. The year after he leaves they win 30 and go to the Elite Eight.


Phil and Cliff had solid senior years, but expectations were very high coming off the NIT run.
The conference was stacked and you had to play everyone twice.
There were not many conference cupcakes back that.
89/90 team caught lightning in a bottle...no one saw an elite eight run coming.
 

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Wait I thought they'd already agreed to to play more than 1 post season game?
rude.

also missing a word in there somewhere.
 

CL82

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rude.

also missing a word in there somewhere.
Wait they didn't? Strange, I can't remember Cinci playing late March and April. Did I miss a post season run in there somewhere?

;)
 

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