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I know the kid has been discussed ad nauseam on this board, but having watched teams like Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, and Oklahoma State seemingly score at will over the last week or two, I've came to a conclusion: with the new rules making it exceedingly difficult to defend the perimeter, the only way to negate increased penetration is with shot blocking. This UConn team, as currently constructed, is going to win a ton of games (I'm thinking potentially 30 or more) simply as a product of brilliance at the point guard position, good coaching, and upper-echelon floor spacing. There are only a couple teams on our schedule (Memphis and Louisville might be the only two now that Hill is out for Florida) that can match our quickness at the guard position. Everybody else is going to discover pretty quickly that our guards - particularly Shabazz - can make a play when ever they want, and that their inability to keep them out of the paint is going to place them in the precarious position of simply hoping we miss the high percentage shots our offense generates. This UConn team isn't a complete juggernaut - they're going to lose games this season, but when they do, it's likely that we'll be able to attribute it to a poor shooting night (or a demolition on the boards) and not the other team shutting us down.
Like it or not, assuming the officials stay true to the groundwork they've laid early in the season, college basketball is going to become a finesse game that's even more conducive to guard play and athleticism than it already was. You can't guard people with your hands anymore, you can't steer drivers away from the hoop, and you can't fight through screens as vigorously. Perimeter defense hasn't been de-emphasized, the degree of difficulty has just skyrocketed.
This brings me to conclusion number two: the rate at which Brimah develops is going to determine whether this is a very good season or a great one. If he improves incrementally from what he is now (an energetic center who can make an overwhelmingly positive impact in a short period of time, but whose deficiencies may cost you over the course of an entire game), this will still be one of the most ascetically pleasing teams UConn has ever had, and one that can make a run in the tournament if they get hot. Even in a short sample of four games, Brimah has proven to be one of the best shot blockers in the country. For further context, his block rate is an absurd 23.7%, which means he blocks 23.7% of the two point field goals opposing players attempt when he is on the court. Additionally, he's blocking 12.4 shots per 40 minutes, which is also pretty good. Now obviously, these numbers are not sustainable. Anthony Davis, one of the best shot blockers in recent memory, posted a block rate of 13.7% and blocked 5.9 shots per 40 minutes in his days at Kentucky. But even if Brimah isn't quite as proficient blocking shots as early statistics may suggest, I'm comfortable in declaring him somebody with game-changing shot blocking ability, which is more than I thought I'd be able to say before the season.
The question, then, becomes, "Well if Brimah is such a formidable shot blocker, and our offense is so efficient, why can't we win a championship"? The first problem is Brimah's inability to stay on the floor. Through four games, he's fouling at an obscene rate, committing 9.1 fouls per 40 minutes. Some of this is probably unavoidable, since Amida is placed in situation where he is forced to foul simply by virtue of conceding 20+ pounds of muscle to some of his opponents. A lot of his fouls, though, have been of the avoidable variety. Whether he's being victimized by a pump fake, mis-timing his motion by a split-second, or just taking an unnecessary risk to try to make a play, he's racked up quite a few fouls that he'll learn to avoid over time. You can't anchor an elite defense if you're not on the floor.
The second ailment is one even the biggest nitwits on this board have been able to diagnose: rebounding. For as energetic and long as Brimah is, he's frequently pushed out of position underneath by more physically mature players, and even when he is positioned correctly, he's a bit behind the curve from an instinctual and timing standpoint, which isn't surprising when you consider he's only been playing a few years. Regardless of cause, Brimah's rebound rate of 7.1% leaves much to be desired (Tyler Olander's rebound rate last season was 10.2% and we were greatly unsatisfied with that mark). As I've spoken about at great length before, it's difficult to play small (and this is a small team, at least by UConn standards) when you do not have a competent rebounder at the center position. Plain and simple, it's exceptionally rare for a team to have an elite defense if they cannot rebound at a respectable rate. Now, as I've conceded, we're dealing with a small sample size here, and, especially early in the season, a lot of the opponents we've been playing have been mid-majors content to jack up long three's (which produce long rebounds).
So, to recap, in a way, Brimah's assets (shot blocking, and I haven't even talked about his offense, which has been fine) and his deficiencies (rebounding, post defense against certain opponents) cancel each other out in some respect. We're not getting the rebounds, but at least we're blocking a lot of those rebounds, thanks in large part to our newest center on both accounts. The strides Amida makes in all facets of his game - but most importantly, rebounding - will define the ceiling for this year's team. In my preseason preview, I said this team could not win a championship, and I said that because even though I felt our front court would improve substantially, there were limitations that would prevent this team from evolving into an elite defense. Amida Brimah, though? He's the guy that could change all that. If he can improve on the glass to at least an Okwandu level rebounder, eliminate about half of the fouls he's currently committing, and continue to understand and study the sport he just discovered a few years ago at an abnormal level, there's really no sense in putting a ceiling on this group.
Like it or not, assuming the officials stay true to the groundwork they've laid early in the season, college basketball is going to become a finesse game that's even more conducive to guard play and athleticism than it already was. You can't guard people with your hands anymore, you can't steer drivers away from the hoop, and you can't fight through screens as vigorously. Perimeter defense hasn't been de-emphasized, the degree of difficulty has just skyrocketed.
This brings me to conclusion number two: the rate at which Brimah develops is going to determine whether this is a very good season or a great one. If he improves incrementally from what he is now (an energetic center who can make an overwhelmingly positive impact in a short period of time, but whose deficiencies may cost you over the course of an entire game), this will still be one of the most ascetically pleasing teams UConn has ever had, and one that can make a run in the tournament if they get hot. Even in a short sample of four games, Brimah has proven to be one of the best shot blockers in the country. For further context, his block rate is an absurd 23.7%, which means he blocks 23.7% of the two point field goals opposing players attempt when he is on the court. Additionally, he's blocking 12.4 shots per 40 minutes, which is also pretty good. Now obviously, these numbers are not sustainable. Anthony Davis, one of the best shot blockers in recent memory, posted a block rate of 13.7% and blocked 5.9 shots per 40 minutes in his days at Kentucky. But even if Brimah isn't quite as proficient blocking shots as early statistics may suggest, I'm comfortable in declaring him somebody with game-changing shot blocking ability, which is more than I thought I'd be able to say before the season.
The question, then, becomes, "Well if Brimah is such a formidable shot blocker, and our offense is so efficient, why can't we win a championship"? The first problem is Brimah's inability to stay on the floor. Through four games, he's fouling at an obscene rate, committing 9.1 fouls per 40 minutes. Some of this is probably unavoidable, since Amida is placed in situation where he is forced to foul simply by virtue of conceding 20+ pounds of muscle to some of his opponents. A lot of his fouls, though, have been of the avoidable variety. Whether he's being victimized by a pump fake, mis-timing his motion by a split-second, or just taking an unnecessary risk to try to make a play, he's racked up quite a few fouls that he'll learn to avoid over time. You can't anchor an elite defense if you're not on the floor.
The second ailment is one even the biggest nitwits on this board have been able to diagnose: rebounding. For as energetic and long as Brimah is, he's frequently pushed out of position underneath by more physically mature players, and even when he is positioned correctly, he's a bit behind the curve from an instinctual and timing standpoint, which isn't surprising when you consider he's only been playing a few years. Regardless of cause, Brimah's rebound rate of 7.1% leaves much to be desired (Tyler Olander's rebound rate last season was 10.2% and we were greatly unsatisfied with that mark). As I've spoken about at great length before, it's difficult to play small (and this is a small team, at least by UConn standards) when you do not have a competent rebounder at the center position. Plain and simple, it's exceptionally rare for a team to have an elite defense if they cannot rebound at a respectable rate. Now, as I've conceded, we're dealing with a small sample size here, and, especially early in the season, a lot of the opponents we've been playing have been mid-majors content to jack up long three's (which produce long rebounds).
So, to recap, in a way, Brimah's assets (shot blocking, and I haven't even talked about his offense, which has been fine) and his deficiencies (rebounding, post defense against certain opponents) cancel each other out in some respect. We're not getting the rebounds, but at least we're blocking a lot of those rebounds, thanks in large part to our newest center on both accounts. The strides Amida makes in all facets of his game - but most importantly, rebounding - will define the ceiling for this year's team. In my preseason preview, I said this team could not win a championship, and I said that because even though I felt our front court would improve substantially, there were limitations that would prevent this team from evolving into an elite defense. Amida Brimah, though? He's the guy that could change all that. If he can improve on the glass to at least an Okwandu level rebounder, eliminate about half of the fouls he's currently committing, and continue to understand and study the sport he just discovered a few years ago at an abnormal level, there's really no sense in putting a ceiling on this group.
