American Athletic Conference Preview Welcome Wichita State

[kobe]

I'm not predicting senior Gray WILL be senior Napier. I'm suggesting he could be and that he's had a similar career thus far. I'd go as far as to say it's quite unlikely, but the similar production thus far should make any UConn fan re-consider their thoughts on how good Gray is.

Jalen carried less on his shoulders than Gray, who was a more important part of his team's significantly better offense (even adjusted for schedule). I'd argue UConn had more talent on the team even after the injuries aside from Gray/Adams than Houston did, too, if maybe more inexperienced.

Maybe it is just me but I've never been impressed with Rob Gray. I went back and looked at his numbers and they were quite a bit better than I though in terms of shooting percentages. It seemed like against us he scored a lot of inconsequential points.

 

[auror]

Maybe it is just me but I've never been impressed with Rob Gray. I went back and looked at his numbers and they were quite a bit better than I though in terms of shooting percentages. It seemed like against us he scored a lot of inconsequential points.

He had an 0-7 3pt% day against you guys, oof, and still shot 38% from the year. That's a recipe for underrating him based on anecdotal small sample size for sure. Plus you beat them twice fairly easily.

 

[mauconnfan]

I'm not predicting senior Gray WILL be senior Napier. I'm suggesting he could be and that he's had a similar career thus far. I'd go as far as to say it's quite unlikely, but the similar production thus far should make any UConn fan re-consider their thoughts on how good Gray is.

Jalen carried less on his shoulders than Gray, who was a more important part of his team's significantly better offense (even adjusted for schedule). I'd argue UConn had more talent on the team even after the injuries aside from Gray/Adams than Houston did, too, if maybe more inexperienced.

Gray put up quiet numbers, I was impressed the end of the game he had filled some stats which didn't seem to equate but nonetheless were official. But he's not the guy who scares me, not a guy who a good defender can't hold down. Not sure why so many are impressed with this is a kid, shoots the ball often, doesn't seem to care too much about the team and as 429 said above is a kid who needs to get his. A couple of good players leaving will leave him to be doubled more and maybe allow teams to find him easier or at least care to. I would say him getting his doesn't make that team better as long as you can control the others. UConn had a tough time controlling a couple others who certainly scared me more than Gray. Jalen was the guy teams needed to know wouldn't beat them. They saw the games in the early season tourney where he went off and had tremendous numbers with the likes of Oklahoma State unable to guard him. He was the target on D with many teams wing defenders sloughing off to help at all times with very few other options on offense for UConn. He's a much better creator and passer, but that points to positions as they differ.

Anyone looking at these 2 and thinking clearly that Gray is better is whacked, too many variables to allow "meaningless stats" to make this call. May be a toss up at best but I expect Adams will protect to be better in 17-18 with a fuller, healthier team surrounding him.

 

[AntG168]

Gray put up quiet numbers, I was impressed the end of the game he had filled some stats which didn't seem to equate but nonetheless were official. But he's not the guy who scares me, not a guy who a good defender can't hold down. Not sure why so many are impressed with this is a kid, shoots the ball often, doesn't seem to care too much about the team and as 429 said above is a kid who needs to get his. A couple of good players leaving will leave him to be doubled more and maybe allow teams to find him easier or at least care to. I would say him getting his doesn't make that team better as long as you can control the others. UConn had a tough time controlling a couple others who certainly scared me more than Gray. Jalen was the guy teams needed to know wouldn't beat them. They saw the games in the early season tourney where he went off and had tremendous numbers with the likes of Oklahoma State unable to guard him. He was the target on D with many teams wing defenders sloughing off to help at all times with very few other options on offense for UConn. He's a much better creator and passer, but that points to positions as they differ.

Anyone looking at these 2 and thinking clearly that Gray is better is whacked, too many variables to allow "meaningless stats" to make this call. May be a toss up at best but I expect Adams will protect to be better in 17-18 with a fuller, healthier team surrounding him.

You made my point alot better than me lol

 

[mauconnfan]

You made my point alot better than me lol

No yours was very good I just missed it until now, jumped over it sorry. I was so frustrated reading the "Gray love" replies I had to make my point. Same page AntG

 

[auror]

Gray put up quiet numbers, I was impressed the end of the game he had filled some stats which didn't seem to equate but nonetheless were official. But he's not the guy who scares me, not a guy who a good defender can't hold down. Not sure why so many are impressed with this is a kid, shoots the ball often, doesn't seem to care too much about the team and as 429 said above is a kid who needs to get his. A couple of good players leaving will leave him to be doubled more and maybe allow teams to find him easier or at least care to. I would say him getting his doesn't make that team better as long as you can control the others. UConn had a tough time controlling a couple others who certainly scared me more than Gray. Jalen was the guy teams needed to know wouldn't beat them. They saw the games in the early season tourney where he went off and had tremendous numbers with the likes of Oklahoma State unable to guard him. He was the target on D with many teams wing defenders sloughing off to help at all times with very few other options on offense for UConn. He's a much better creator and passer, but that points to positions as they differ.

Anyone looking at these 2 and thinking clearly that Gray is better is whacked, too many variables to allow "meaningless stats" to make this call. May be a toss up at best but I expect Adams will protect to be better in 17-18 with a fuller, healthier team surrounding him.

This is nonsense. Let's break it down.

But he's not the guy who scares me, not a guy who a good defender can't hold down.

On the year, defenders did a very poor job of holding him down overall. Because he's good.

Not sure why so many are impressed with this is a kid, shoots the ball often, doesn't seem to care too much about the team and as 429 said above is a kid who needs to get his.

They're impressed because he took a lot of shots and made a much higher percentage of them than Adams did with his lesser attempts. Usage is a skill curve... the more shots you take, the harder it is to shoot well. Of the 27 guys who used more possession than Gray did, Jawun Evans and Mike Daum are the only two who used them more effectively, and Evans is now in the NBA and Daum is the best player most people haven't heard of. The not caring about the team thing is a personal attack based on nothing.

I would say him getting his doesn't make that team better as long as you can control the others

High usage players create easier shots for their teammates not just by actual assists, but by allowing them to take easier shots and not force things. Read up on usage and skill curves, this is a good primer featuring an old friend of ours. So by taking and making a lot of shots efficiently, he's effectively making his teammates harder to control. That's why:

UConn had a tough time controlling a couple others who certainly scared me more than Gray.

He allows his teammates to be put in positions to succeed. Now that being said, you might still control them easier this year because most of them suck, but that's not Gray's fault.

Jalen was the guy teams needed to know wouldn't beat them. They saw the games in the early season tourney where he went off and had tremendous numbers with the likes of Oklahoma State unable to guard him. He was the target on D with many teams wing defenders sloughing off to help at all times with very few other options on offense for UConn.

This could all literally be about Gray if you swapped out Gray's name for Jalen, except Gray performed way better even under those targeted D circumstances. You guys are creating narratives about how amazing Jalen was because he flashed NBA potential in a few games, but on the whole he was much worse than Gray and both the stats and the performance of the respective offenses makes it abundantly clear.

 

[husky429]

This is nonsense. Let's break it down.



On the year, defenders did a very poor job of holding him down overall. Because he's good.



They're impressed because he took a lot of shots and made a much higher percentage of them than Adams did with his lesser attempts. Usage is a skill curve... the more shots you take, the harder it is to shoot well. Of the 27 guys who used more possession than Gray did, Jawun Evans and Mike Daum are the only two who used them more effectively, and Evans is now in the NBA and Daum is the best player most people haven't heard of. The not caring about the team thing is a personal attack based on nothing.



High usage players create easier shots for their teammates not just by actual assists, but by allowing them to take easier shots and not force things. Read up on usage and skill curves, this is a good primer featuring an old friend of ours. So by taking and making a lot of shots efficiently, he's effectively making his teammates harder to control. That's why:



He allows his teammates to be put in positions to succeed. Now that being said, you might still control them easier this year because most of them suck, but that's not Gray's fault.



This could all literally be about Gray if you swapped out Gray's name for Jalen, except Gray performed way better even under those targeted D circumstances. You guys are creating narratives about how amazing Jalen was because he flashed NBA potential in a few games, but on the whole he was much worse than Gray and both the stats and the performance of the respective offenses makes it abundantly clear.

Sometimes when you're alone in you're thinking, it's because you're wrong man.

It is reasonable to argue that Gray was better than Jalen last year. Ok? It's also reasonable to suggest that Jalen was better. They are close to equal in terms of talent RIGHT NOW. You are acting like Gray is worlds better than Jalen, and it's simply not true.

You don't seem to be acknowledging Jalen's higher ceiling, or the simple fact that Jalen was an elite distributor and Gray was sub-par at best. Or that Gray had better teammates. Or Jalen's injuries.

We may be ignoring that Jalen's scoring was not as good as it could have been--the last 1/3 of the conference schedule. Maybe his higher turnovers as well, to be fair.

TLDR: Cool it. You're on a uconn board, dude.

 

[mauconnfan]

auror, you say mine is nonsense I say all of yours is nonsense. We won't win here, but can't imagine you saw a game Gray played in if you think he's this good? LOL

 

[AntG168]

@auror
So you'd swap jalen Adams for Rob Gray is what you are saying? If so you may be the only guy in America who would. Your argument is basically that Rob Gray shoots better than Jalen Adams, which no one is disputing by the way. Where you are losing people is when you refuse to acknowledge that Jalen is better at everything else tangible and intangible. He's bigger, stronger, better passer, way better defender, better rebounder, better at driving to the hoop, and has an all around bigger impact on the game. JA draws the attention of every one in the building including opposing coaches and players Gray does not. You can't base your assessment solely on efficiency its flawed. Steve Nash is historically more efficient than westbrook, but is he better?

 

[champs99and04]

Efficient scoring despite shouldering a huge burden on offense, very good distribution, low turnovers, drawing a lot of fouls, making over 80% from the line when you get there, not committing fouls on D to stay on the court, stretching the D by shooting well enough from 3 to setup the rest of your game.

Those are all things Gray did at a very good to elite level last year. There's a reason why our offense sucked last year and theirs was very good.

Individual offense is so much more important than individual defense (Just look at Harden, Westbrook, Curry in prior years, etc.). Further, college coaches/players generally aren't good enough to pick on one defender consistently enough and there are plenty of non-scorers to hide defenders on. Their biggest weaknesses as a team on defense were fouling and rebounding, neither of which are things he directly had a hand in (he had a very low foul rate).

He may have been a minus defender, but Jalen's edge in that category isn't even close to Gray's advantage on the offensive end. It's indisputable that Gray's season was better than Jalen's, so how could my take be way off that OP underrates Gray by saying Jalen will definitively be better this season?

I don't think you're way off in saying Jalen won't be definitively better than Gray this season, I think you're under-estimating the trajectory Jalen could be on. If Jalen makes a leap this year, that won't put him on Gray's level, that will put him well above Gray (assuming Gray doesn't get markedly better himself). The player we saw in the conference tournament, or to some extent in Maui, was a NPOY caliber player. That designation is quite a bit different than being all AAC first team.

Granted I'm making some projections here, so in that respect I can't blame you for seeing things differently. Nobody harped on Jalen's poor shooting numbers - or the fact that our offense was abjectly dreadful - during conference play more than me, so I'm fully aware that Jalen as a player had a long way to go last season. He wasn't being held back entirely by the roster, he was contributing to holding the roster back as well. He was also an extremely drifty defender away from the ball, so I'm not trying to paint the picture that he was Patrick Beverly on defense. He was probably the fourth best defender on the team, at best.

I'm not sure about your argument that individual offense matters so much more than individual defense. I can see what you mean, of course - you're not taking Marcus Smart over Kyrie Irving, and the relationship between willing your offense to respectability - like a Harden or Westbrook whose usage is obscene - is not inversely proportional to the challenges of hiding a bad defender or two. It's not a zero sum game where Gray being a 9 out of 10 on offense and a 2 out of 10 on defense makes him a net even player.

But defense can still be the difference between "indisputably great" and "polarizing." There is a reason Chris Paul is unanimously considered a top ten player in the NBA while Isaiah Thomas is a guy executives simply don't know what to do with. In a certain context, defense can absolutely be as imperative as offense - you're taking the most extreme examples where players are irreplaceable offensively, but plenty of scenarios exist where greatness was absolutely required on both ends for a team to reach their ceiling (Kemba in 2011, Shabazz in 2014). So while Gray is a player who you can hide if you surround him with a bunch of other great defensive players, he's not a player who you will ever be great defensively because of. That's why Shabazz, even as a junior, despite the similar statistical output, was in a different stratosphere than Gray as a player. He was indispensable to both our offensive and defensive systems, just like Draymond Green is to Golden State. The valuation between players like Draymond and Kevin Love is about the same as it will be between Jalen and Gray. JMO.

 

[David 76]

Declare a winner and move on. Please.

 

[tzznandrew]

Am I missing something? The board is slow, and we have posters having an interesting argument using facts and numbers to discuss the relative merits of two players, and it has a more than tangential connection to the OP. Isn't this what the board is for?

 

[James]

adams is a better two way player and Houston played an easier schedule last year... I know there is all this talk about keeping expectations realistic but I fully expect him to be the best player in conference. We have more bodies and he is older, so he’s the one who reminds me of Napier going into his senior year.

 

[mauconnfan]

Declare a winner and move on. Please.

Let's just get the games started could care less about Gray anyway!

 

[auror]

@auror
So you'd swap jalen Adams for Rob Gray is what you are saying? If so you may be the only guy in America who would.

Didn't respond to this at the time because I let it go.

Sadly, yes.

But maybe now the reason is to see our offense with a lead guard who can actually shoot and to see what Jalen can do in an entirely different (functional) offense. Would certainly be enlightening for our discussions as of late about Ollie's offense (and is interesting to re-read the debate above and realize again the difficulty of isolating talent from coaching and scheme).

 

[sammydabiz]

Rob Gray is the closest thing to Shabazz Napier in the American Athletic Conference....