American Athletic Conference Preview Welcome Wichita State

[David 76]

For 5 years, those giving UConn the benefit of the doubt at the beginning of the season have found themselves disappointed, so I think ...

Even when we won the National Championship?
Or were ineligible for the tournament?

 

[AZHuskiePop]

If other AAC teams win OOC games, it should increase the number of tournament teams and improve their seedings. Past that, UConn need only concern itself with winning both out of and in conference. Be that comeback team that puts it together.

For 5 years, those giving UConn the benefit of the doubt at the beginning of the season have found themselves disappointed, so I think an article like this shows some increased attention over past years. I'm very eager to see what happens on the court, and I welcome this as a level-headed preview of an improving league.

All AAC OC games are important
I could have written the UConn blurb and I’m a homer .

Hans in the last 5 years we’ve had a 30 win season and NC
A 25 win team who won the AAC tourney ,and got to the second round of the NCAA tourney
and a twenty win seasons and an NIT bid ina rebuilding year.
also a 20 win year in the Old Big East with a patchwork frontcourt and team that was written off as dead.
Last year was a disaster of injuries and inexperience.
I can honestly say although individual games disappointed me the seasons usual met or exceeded expectations.
It’s just that UConn expectations for the casual fan are pretty outrageous.

 

[SouthBayHusky]

All AAC OC games are important
I could have written the UConn blurb and I’m a homer .

Hans in the last 5 years we’ve had a 30 win season and NC
A 25 win team who won the AAC tourney ,and got to the second round of the NCAA tourney
and a twenty win seasons and an NIT bid ina rebuilding year.
also a 20 win year in the Old Big East with a patchwork frontcourt and team that was written off as dead.
Last year was a disaster of injuries and inexperience.
I can honestly say although individual games disappointed me the seasons usual met or exceeded expectations.
It’s just that UConn expectations for the casual fan are pretty outrageous.

We made the tournament 1x in the past 3 seasons, and that was as a bubble team. We're past the benefit of the doubt for columnists and sports reporters, and I think expectations of at least making the tournament and not finishing fifth or sixth in a crappy conference doesn't reflect "high expectations" but what do I know.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Even when we won the National Championship?
Or were ineligible for the tournament?

I erred in claiming a five year time frame, intending only to go back 4 years to the beginning of the American. I think that overall performance in the AAC has fallen short of reasonable expectations and we've seen a surprising amount of undistinguished basketball. With no doubt whatsoever, 2014 came together magnificently and was fully satisfying and most enjoyable.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

All AAC OC games are important
I could have written the UConn blurb and I’m a homer .

Hans in the last 5 years we’ve had a 30 win season and NC
A 25 win team who won the AAC tourney ,and got to the second round of the NCAA tourney
and a twenty win seasons and an NIT bid ina rebuilding year.
also a 20 win year in the Old Big East with a patchwork frontcourt and team that was written off as dead.
Last year was a disaster of injuries and inexperience.
I can honestly say although individual games disappointed me the seasons usual met or exceeded expectations.
It’s just that UConn expectations for the casual fan are pretty outrageous.

My mistake on saying "5 years," and my great joy in March & April 2014, but I've seen a lot of crappy basketball in AAC play, and I've imagined that outcomes would not have improved if competition were from the ACC or B1G.
I took it as a measure of historical respect that UConn got a profile, even though Temple was picked to finish 5th.

For once, I can imagine what some of the folks I Ignored this summer meant when they wrote that they'd like nothing more than to see a well-coached team work hard, play smart, and win some good basketball games.

 

[WrenchFan69]

UCF finished really strong last season, beat us and has a top 5 defense last year because of tacko fall. BJ Taylor is one of the best pg in the league, they have tacko fall in the paint and added Aubrey Dawkins and some other transfer who can really shoot.

Alabama has 5 Star Colin Sexton and John petty. Both teams are expected to be tournament teams.

I’d personally rather watch UConn vs zona or nova but I can understand people who like a game between two fast rising programs with new coaches

We beat UCF in both matchups last year. Colin Sexton very well may be ineligible by the time that game is played and John Petty is a nice piece but not a 5*

 

[auror]

Reasonable take on UConn, but so, so off on the players and the non-conference. Maybe the most disrespectful thing I've heard all offseason is someone putting Rob Gray ahead of a healthy Jalen.

You're underrating Rob Gray.

He's a 12 stat guy (essentially 90th percentile player in 12/18 stat categories on KenPom).

Jalen could certainly have a great year, and recruiting pedigree and our hopes and dreams suggest it may be possible, but a great year from him looks an awful lot like what Rob Gray already did last year.

 

[upstater]

UCF finished really strong last season, beat us and has a top 5 defense last year because of tacko fall. BJ Taylor is one of the best pg in the league, they have tacko fall in the paint and added Aubrey Dawkins and some other transfer who can really shoot.

Alabama has 5 Star Colin Sexton and John petty. Both teams are expected to be tournament teams.

I’d personally rather watch UConn vs zona or nova but I can understand people who like a game between two fast rising programs with new coaches

Not impressed by UCF. Tacko Fall was dominated by UConn's bigs last year. And Alabama impresses even less so.

 

[Stainmaster]

Not impressed by UCF. Tacko Fall was dominated by UConn's bigs last year. And Alabama impresses even less so.

American This Year

 

[champs99and04]

You're underrating Rob Gray.

He's a 12 stat guy (essentially 90th percentile player in 12/18 stat categories on KenPom).

Jalen could certainly have a great year, and recruiting pedigree and our hopes and dreams suggest it may be possible, but a great year from him looks an awful lot like what Rob Gray already did last year.

This take is way off in my opinion. Rob Gray is a damn good player. He excels at arguably the most important thing in the sport - scoring the basketball. He's given us fits in the past and will continue to do so moving forward. He'll probably be in the conversation for player of the year or at the very least a spot on an all-conference team.

But he's not Jalen Adams and I think you have to look beyond the numbers on this one. Gray isn't just a minus player defensively, he's a guy you specifically seek out and try to exploit on that end. He was a big part of the reason Houston ranked only 79th last season in defensive efficiency and ultimately couldn't get enough stops to make the tournament. Unlike Adams, his physical profile limits his ceiling, especially defensively. There is a reason he was a two star recruit - despite the fact that he's turned into a really nice player, he isn't the transcendent talent that Adams is where he can elevate the performance of everyone around him. I wouldn't go as far as to call him an empty stats guy, but KenPom isn't going to tell the whole story here. Adams outplayed him convincingly last season in Hartford - I was there, sitting pretty close to the court, and Adams embraced the challenge late in the game of guarding him and he did so very effectively. It was, on Jalen's end, one of the best performances I saw all season in college basketball...and I watch a lot of college basketball. Complete command of the game on both ends and the talent disparity was pronounced when the two matched up late.

 

[David 76]

I erred in claiming a five year time frame, intending only to go back 4 years to the beginning of the American. I think that overall performance in the AAC has fallen short of reasonable expectations and we've seen a surprising amount of undistinguished basketball. With no doubt whatsoever, 2014 came together magnificently and was fully satisfying and most enjoyable.

Your grammar may be exemplary, but your math is not. I was not disappointed 3.5 years ago when we won a NC. Not 5 years, that was BE and a gritty performance. Not 4 years, that was a NC. Try 3 years

 

[bearcatmax]

This take is way off in my opinion. Rob Gray is a damn good player. He excels at arguably the most important thing in the sport - scoring the basketball. He's given us fits in the past and will continue to do so moving forward. He'll probably be in the conversation for player of the year or at the very least a spot on an all-conference team.

But he's not Jalen Adams and I think you have to look beyond the numbers on this one. Gray isn't just a minus player defensively, he's a guy you specifically seek out and try to exploit on that end. He was a big part of the reason Houston ranked only 79th last season in defensive efficiency and ultimately couldn't get enough stops to make the tournament. Unlike Adams, his physical profile limits his ceiling, especially defensively. There is a reason he was a two star recruit - despite the fact that he's turned into a really nice player, he isn't the transcendent talent that Adams is where he can elevate the performance of everyone around him. I wouldn't go as far as to call him an empty stats guy, but KenPom isn't going to tell the whole story here. Adams outplayed him convincingly last season in Hartford - I was there, sitting pretty close to the court, and Adams embraced the challenge late in the game of guarding him and he did so very effectively. It was, on Jalen's end, one of the best performances I saw all season in college basketball...and I watch a lot of college basketball. Complete command of the game on both ends and the talent disparity was pronounced when the two matched up late.

Counterpoint: Jalen Adams shot 38% from the field in conference play (28% from 3) and was below average offensively (98.5) and defensively (103.4)

However, if you put a gun to my head and asked me for the most talented lead guard in the AAC (sans Shamet), I would probably say Jalen Adams but from an advanced stats perspective he lagged behind Milton, Gray, Taylor and Caupain. I don't have to tell you guys that Adams wasn't presented with most ideal circumstances last year and I think that definitely must be kept in mind, nonetheless, he has to become a more consistent (and efficient) player on both ends of the floor to reach the lofty expectations of many on this board.

 

[justinhub2003]

We beat UCF in both matchups last year. Colin Sexton very well may be ineligible by the time that game is played and John Petty is a nice piece but not a 5*

Sure. UConn beat them. But I’ll take UCF’s 7 top 100 wins last year as an indicator of them being a contender for the 3-5 spot in the American. BJ Taylor Is a really good player and Tacko Fall is annoying in the paint. I also see tacko giving uconn’s young front court some trouble next year.

As for Alabama, I only meant Colin Sexton was a 5 Star and I see zero reason at this time his eligibility will be in question. The fbi holds the keys to this investigation and they aren’t about to release it to the NCAA any time soon. The only way Sexton doesn’t play is if Bama kicks him out of school like Bowen did. Petty was the 32nd ranked player in the class, that’s a pretty highly touted kid even if not a 5 Star. I dunno how Bama performs but I do know they are program with more momentum then every team in the AAC outside of UC and WSU

Either way, I’m not a fan of either of those programs but rather just trying to explain why it might be a premier game in the league.

UC and UConn clearly play the best non league schedule this year. If UConn were top 25, all 5 games would be UC and UConn Games.

I think the AAC is going to be so hard to predict 3-7. I can make cases for UConn, smu, Houston, UCF and temple

 

[auror]

This take is way off in my opinion. Rob Gray is a damn good player. He excels at arguably the most important thing in the sport - scoring the basketball. He's given us fits in the past and will continue to do so moving forward. He'll probably be in the conversation for player of the year or at the very least a spot on an all-conference team.

But he's not Jalen Adams and I think you have to look beyond the numbers on this one. Gray isn't just a minus player defensively, he's a guy you specifically seek out and try to exploit on that end. He was a big part of the reason Houston ranked only 79th last season in defensive efficiency and ultimately couldn't get enough stops to make the tournament. Unlike Adams, his physical profile limits his ceiling, especially defensively. There is a reason he was a two star recruit - despite the fact that he's turned into a really nice player, he isn't the transcendent talent that Adams is where he can elevate the performance of everyone around him. I wouldn't go as far as to call him an empty stats guy, but KenPom isn't going to tell the whole story here. Adams outplayed him convincingly last season in Hartford - I was there, sitting pretty close to the court, and Adams embraced the challenge late in the game of guarding him and he did so very effectively. It was, on Jalen's end, one of the best performances I saw all season in college basketball...and I watch a lot of college basketball. Complete command of the game on both ends and the talent disparity was pronounced when the two matched up late.

Efficient scoring despite shouldering a huge burden on offense, very good distribution, low turnovers, drawing a lot of fouls, making over 80% from the line when you get there, not committing fouls on D to stay on the court, stretching the D by shooting well enough from 3 to setup the rest of your game.

Those are all things Gray did at a very good to elite level last year. There's a reason why our offense sucked last year and theirs was very good.

Individual offense is so much more important than individual defense (Just look at Harden, Westbrook, Curry in prior years, etc.). Further, college coaches/players generally aren't good enough to pick on one defender consistently enough and there are plenty of non-scorers to hide defenders on. Their biggest weaknesses as a team on defense were fouling and rebounding, neither of which are things he directly had a hand in (he had a very low foul rate).

He may have been a minus defender, but Jalen's edge in that category isn't even close to Gray's advantage on the offensive end. It's indisputable that Gray's season was better than Jalen's, so how could my take be way off that OP underrates Gray by saying Jalen will definitively be better this season?

 

[SeattleHoop]

Efficient scoring despite shouldering a huge burden on offense, very good distribution, low turnovers, drawing a lot of fouls, making over 80% from the line when you get there, not committing fouls on D to stay on the court, stretching the D by shooting well enough from 3 to setup the rest of your game.

Those are all things Gray did at a very good to elite level last year. There's a reason why our offense sucked last year and theirs was very good.

Individual offense is so much more important than individual defense (Just look at Harden, Westbrook, Curry in prior years, etc.). Further, college coaches/players generally aren't good enough to pick on one defender consistently enough and there are plenty of non-scorers to hide defenders on. Their biggest weaknesses as a team on defense were fouling and rebounding, neither of which are things he directly had a hand in (he had a very low foul rate).

He may have been a minus defender, but Jalen's edge in that category isn't even close to Gray's advantage on the offensive end. It's indisputable that Gray's season was better than Jalen's, so how could my take be way off that OP underrates Gray by saying Jalen will definitively be better this season?

I know you are not going to give up your argument. So I don’t want to waste a lot of time on this and will keep it simple.

Anyone who has played basketball at a highly competitive level or anyone with a basketball eye (not saying you don’t) can clearly tell that Jalen has another level to his game that Rob Gray cannot touch. Gray has a beautiful shot. And he has worked extremely hard. You can tell, because he plays above his ceiling already. But Jalen has yet to reach the heights he is capable of achieving the next 2 seasons.

He is so much more natural on the court than Gray and he achieves results so effortlessly. When he mentally decided to finish Rob Gray last season. He did.

I know I am uconn biased, but objectively, I am willing to bet any NBA scout is taking a much harder look at Jalen Adams long term than Rob Gray.

 

[auror]

Anyone who has played basketball at a highly competitive level or anyone with a basketball eye (not saying you don’t) can clearly tell that Jalen has another level to his game that Rob Gray cannot touch. Gray has a beautiful shot. And he has worked extremely hard. You can tell, because he plays above his ceiling already. But Jalen has yet to reach the heights he is capable of achieving the next 2 seasons.

He is so much more natural on the court than Gray and he achieves results so effortlessly. When he mentally decided to finish Rob Gray last season. He did.

I know I am uconn biased, but objectively, I am willing to bet any NBA scout is taking a much harder look at Jalen Adams long term than Rob Gray.

I would suggest you're confusing individual NBA potential with college production.

Jalen has more levels to his current game. Which if he is consistent a natural progression would put him about as productive as Gray was last year (6 more points per game on increased shooting %s, maybe slightly more assists than Gray although Gray's crappy teammates other than Dotson hindered that a bit).

Jalen is more likely to succeed in the NBA, when the defenders are bigger and faster, and your individual defense will be more readily punished. Gray is basically Napier-sized and had eerily similar numbers in his junior year to Napier's junior year numbers (just slightly worse 3pt shooting, assist rate, and less steals, but had a bigger role in the offense on the same efficiency). Hopefully suggesting that Gray is on Napier's career arc will help you realize I'm not trying to denigrate Adams, just show that Gray is dreadfully underrated around here.

 

[AntG168]

I would suggest you're confusing individual NBA potential with college production.

Jalen has more levels to his current game. Which if he is consistent a natural progression would put him about as productive as Gray was last year (6 more points per game on increased shooting %s, maybe slightly more assists than Gray although Gray's crappy teammates other than Dotson hindered that a bit).

Jalen is more likely to succeed in the NBA, when the defenders are bigger and faster, and your individual defense will be more readily punished. Gray is basically Napier-sized and had eerily similar numbers in his junior year to Napier's junior year numbers (just slightly worse 3pt shooting, assist rate, and less steals, but had a bigger role in the offense on the same efficiency). Hopefully suggesting that Gray is on Napier's career arc will help you realize I'm not trying to denigrate Adams, just show that Gray is dreadfully underrated around here.

Or maybe you are overrating Gray. Even insinuating he may follow bazz's career arc is blasphemy. There is something to the intangible parts of the game. Bazz had a certain "IT" and dog that Gray doesnt posses. Bazz's will to win and his confidence in doing so was Jordan-esque at the college level. Watching Gray and Adams on the court together last yr was very telling. JaIen has a level he can tap into that Gray just cant reach. If we were to swap jalen with gray on this UConn team our ceiling would drop significantly and Houston's would rise significantly. I don't even think kelvin Sampson would agree with you. I think he'd swap gray for Jalen in a heart beat.

 

[auror]

Or maybe you are overrating Gray. Even insinuating he may follow bazz's career arc is blasphemy. There is something to the intangible parts of the game. Bazz had a certain "IT" and dog that Gray doesnt posses. Bazz's will to win and his confidence in doing so was Jordan-esque at the college level.

UConn during Shabazz junior year: 20-10, KenPom - 49.

Houston during Gray junior year: 21-11, Kenpom - 52.

I get it. This is a UConn board. Napier is and was incredible.

Adams is going to be really good. Gray was and is really good, too, and was significantly better than Jalen last year. It is not ludicrous to believe he will be better again this year.. but he might not be! It's just not crazy to predict it.

 

[husky429]

UConn during Shabazz junior year: 20-10, KenPom - 49.

Houston during Gray junior year: 21-11, Kenpom - 52.

I get it. This is a UConn board. Napier is and was incredible.

Adams is going to be really good. Gray was and is really good, too, and was significantly better than Jalen last year. It is not ludicrous to believe he will be better again this year.. but he might not be! It's just not crazy to predict it.

Rob gray cant pass. Teams he leads will always have a low ceiling. Not the case with jalen, regardless of individual production. Surround him with elite players and they will perform. Gray needs to "get his" to be successful.

Jalen is a scoring lead guard with amazing passing--something he developed in his off year under ollies tutelage; he didnt have that ability in high school nearly as much.

Jalen also has a better sense for the game. He knows pacing and when to go "on". And "on" for him is explosive.

College production is a wash because of passing. The 4+ more assists per game jalen had make up for the scoring difference easily. But jalen CLEARLY has another elite level to his game. No one can reasonably say gray is the better player without an asterisk.

 

[bearcatmax]

Rob gray cant pass. Teams he leads will always have a low ceiling. Not the case with jalen, regardless of individual production. Surround him with elite players and they will perform. Gray needs to "get his" to be successful.

Jalen is a scoring lead guard with amazing passing--something he developed in his off year under ollies tutelage; he didnt have that ability in high school nearly as much.

Jalen also has a better sense for the game. He knows pacing and when to go "on". And "on" for him is explosive.

College production is a wash because of passing. The 4+ more assists per game jalen had make up for the scoring difference easily. But jalen CLEARLY has another elite level to his game. No one can reasonably say gray is the better player without an asterisk.

Hope you don't mind a Bearcat fan chiming in on this....

Rob Gray was objectively better last year (better ORating, better DRating, higher win shares, higher box score +/-, etc.) but that's not meant to be a knock on Adams: Gray is just that good and so underrated nationally. You're probably right that Jalen has another level (and yes, he has shown flashes of that), but Gray's best is already pretty damn good and he brings that type of production consistently.

I should add that whenever UC plays Houston or UConn, I'm much more confident about UC's ability to stop Gray than Adams. Jalen has never really seemed to be bothered by UC's length and athleticism. I'll think during the game, "Holy , Adams is killing us," but then I'll check the box score and he only shot 7-17 (like he did in the conference tournament this past year). On the other hand, UC always seems to do a great job on Gray and I'll often come away from a game thinking he was completely shut down, but his numbers at the end of the day are so similar to Adams'. I remember thinking that after the game @ Houston this past year when Gray went 9-22. It's a very weird dynamic that I can't really explain.

 

[awfuldan]

Also, part of the reason Rob Gray put up such great numbers is because Houston played one of the softest OOC schedules in the league.

 

[upstater]

Sure. UConn beat them. But I’ll take UCF’s 7 top 100 wins last year as an indicator of them being a contender for the 3-5 spot in the American.

Top 100 is such a meaningless stat. The following were top 100 teams last year: San Francisco, Greensboro, Lehigh, St Peter's, Towson, Furman, Davidson, Fla. Gulf Coast, New Mexico, Northern Kentucky, Iona, Valpo, Fresno St, Asheville, Richmond, Winthrop, Boise St, Colorado St, Bucknell, Charleston, Bakersfield, Belmont, Eastern Tennessee, New Mexico St, Akron, Monmouth. Even the top 50 is somewhat suspect: Princeton, Vermont, Vanderbilt, Arlington, Illinois St., Nevada, Middle Tennessee, Wilmington, etc.

They had no signature OOC wins. And in conference, only their win over Cinci qualifies as a big win.

 

[AntG168]

UConn during Shabazz junior year: 20-10, KenPom - 49.

Houston during Gray junior year: 21-11, Kenpom - 52.

I get it. This is a UConn board. Napier is and was incredible.

Adams is going to be really good. Gray was and is really good, too, and was significantly better than Jalen last year. It is not ludicrous to believe he will be better again this year.. but he might not be! It's just not crazy to predict it.

Predicting Gray will be as good as Shabazz is indeed ludicrous. Also saying Gray was "significantly" better than Adams last yr is a major over statement. Numbers don't tell the whole story. Jalen carried a lot more on his shoulders, played a much tougher schedule, and dealt with injures for the last 1/3 of the yr. And still head to head outclassed Gray. Gray is good I agree, but I believe you are over stating his ablility

 

[auror]

Predicting Gray will be as good as Shabazz is indeed ludicrous. Also saying Gray was "significantly" better than Adams last yr is a major over statement. Numbers don't tell the whole story. Jalen carried a lot more on his shoulders, played a much tougher schedule, and dealt with injures for the last 1/3 of the yr. And still head to head outclassed Gray. Gray is good I agree, but I believe you are over stating his ablility

I'm not predicting senior Gray WILL be senior Napier. I'm suggesting he could be and that he's had a similar career thus far. I'd go as far as to say it's quite unlikely, but the similar production thus far should make any UConn fan re-consider their thoughts on how good Gray is.

Jalen carried less on his shoulders than Gray, who was a more important part of his team's significantly better offense (even adjusted for schedule). I'd argue UConn had more talent on the team even after the injuries aside from Gray/Adams than Houston did, too, if maybe more inexperienced.

 

[AntG168]

I'm not predicting senior Gray WILL be senior Napier. I'm suggesting he could be and that he's had a similar career thus far. I'd go as far as to say it's quite unlikely, but the similar production thus far should make any UConn fan re-consider their thoughts on how good Gray is.

Jalen carried less on his shoulders than Gray, who was a more important part of his team's significantly better offense (even adjusted for schedule). I'd argue UConn had more talent on the team even after the injuries aside from Gray/Adams than Houston did, too, if maybe more inexperienced.

Jalen Adams did not have a teammate as good as dotson. When jalen didn't play in the Houston game UConn got destroyed