American Athletic Conference Preview Welcome Wichita State

[WrenchFan69]

UCF finished really strong last season, beat us and has a top 5 defense last year because of tacko fall. BJ Taylor is one of the best pg in the league, they have tacko fall in the paint and added Aubrey Dawkins and some other transfer who can really shoot.

Alabama has 5 Star Colin Sexton and John petty. Both teams are expected to be tournament teams.

I’d personally rather watch UConn vs zona or nova but I can understand people who like a game between two fast rising programs with new coaches

We beat UCF in both matchups last year. Colin Sexton very well may be ineligible by the time that game is played and John Petty is a nice piece but not a 5*

 

[auror]

Reasonable take on UConn, but so, so off on the players and the non-conference. Maybe the most disrespectful thing I've heard all offseason is someone putting Rob Gray ahead of a healthy Jalen.

You're underrating Rob Gray.

He's a 12 stat guy (essentially 90th percentile player in 12/18 stat categories on KenPom).

Jalen could certainly have a great year, and recruiting pedigree and our hopes and dreams suggest it may be possible, but a great year from him looks an awful lot like what Rob Gray already did last year.

 

[upstater]

UCF finished really strong last season, beat us and has a top 5 defense last year because of tacko fall. BJ Taylor is one of the best pg in the league, they have tacko fall in the paint and added Aubrey Dawkins and some other transfer who can really shoot.

Alabama has 5 Star Colin Sexton and John petty. Both teams are expected to be tournament teams.

I’d personally rather watch UConn vs zona or nova but I can understand people who like a game between two fast rising programs with new coaches

Not impressed by UCF. Tacko Fall was dominated by UConn's bigs last year. And Alabama impresses even less so.

 

[Stainmaster]

Not impressed by UCF. Tacko Fall was dominated by UConn's bigs last year. And Alabama impresses even less so.

American This Year

 

[champs99and04]

You're underrating Rob Gray.

He's a 12 stat guy (essentially 90th percentile player in 12/18 stat categories on KenPom).

Jalen could certainly have a great year, and recruiting pedigree and our hopes and dreams suggest it may be possible, but a great year from him looks an awful lot like what Rob Gray already did last year.

This take is way off in my opinion. Rob Gray is a damn good player. He excels at arguably the most important thing in the sport - scoring the basketball. He's given us fits in the past and will continue to do so moving forward. He'll probably be in the conversation for player of the year or at the very least a spot on an all-conference team.

But he's not Jalen Adams and I think you have to look beyond the numbers on this one. Gray isn't just a minus player defensively, he's a guy you specifically seek out and try to exploit on that end. He was a big part of the reason Houston ranked only 79th last season in defensive efficiency and ultimately couldn't get enough stops to make the tournament. Unlike Adams, his physical profile limits his ceiling, especially defensively. There is a reason he was a two star recruit - despite the fact that he's turned into a really nice player, he isn't the transcendent talent that Adams is where he can elevate the performance of everyone around him. I wouldn't go as far as to call him an empty stats guy, but KenPom isn't going to tell the whole story here. Adams outplayed him convincingly last season in Hartford - I was there, sitting pretty close to the court, and Adams embraced the challenge late in the game of guarding him and he did so very effectively. It was, on Jalen's end, one of the best performances I saw all season in college basketball...and I watch a lot of college basketball. Complete command of the game on both ends and the talent disparity was pronounced when the two matched up late.

 

[David 76]

I erred in claiming a five year time frame, intending only to go back 4 years to the beginning of the American. I think that overall performance in the AAC has fallen short of reasonable expectations and we've seen a surprising amount of undistinguished basketball. With no doubt whatsoever, 2014 came together magnificently and was fully satisfying and most enjoyable.

Your grammar may be exemplary, but your math is not. I was not disappointed 3.5 years ago when we won a NC. Not 5 years, that was BE and a gritty performance. Not 4 years, that was a NC. Try 3 years

 

[bearcatmax]

This take is way off in my opinion. Rob Gray is a damn good player. He excels at arguably the most important thing in the sport - scoring the basketball. He's given us fits in the past and will continue to do so moving forward. He'll probably be in the conversation for player of the year or at the very least a spot on an all-conference team.

But he's not Jalen Adams and I think you have to look beyond the numbers on this one. Gray isn't just a minus player defensively, he's a guy you specifically seek out and try to exploit on that end. He was a big part of the reason Houston ranked only 79th last season in defensive efficiency and ultimately couldn't get enough stops to make the tournament. Unlike Adams, his physical profile limits his ceiling, especially defensively. There is a reason he was a two star recruit - despite the fact that he's turned into a really nice player, he isn't the transcendent talent that Adams is where he can elevate the performance of everyone around him. I wouldn't go as far as to call him an empty stats guy, but KenPom isn't going to tell the whole story here. Adams outplayed him convincingly last season in Hartford - I was there, sitting pretty close to the court, and Adams embraced the challenge late in the game of guarding him and he did so very effectively. It was, on Jalen's end, one of the best performances I saw all season in college basketball...and I watch a lot of college basketball. Complete command of the game on both ends and the talent disparity was pronounced when the two matched up late.

Counterpoint: Jalen Adams shot 38% from the field in conference play (28% from 3) and was below average offensively (98.5) and defensively (103.4)

However, if you put a gun to my head and asked me for the most talented lead guard in the AAC (sans Shamet), I would probably say Jalen Adams but from an advanced stats perspective he lagged behind Milton, Gray, Taylor and Caupain. I don't have to tell you guys that Adams wasn't presented with most ideal circumstances last year and I think that definitely must be kept in mind, nonetheless, he has to become a more consistent (and efficient) player on both ends of the floor to reach the lofty expectations of many on this board.

 

[justinhub2003]

We beat UCF in both matchups last year. Colin Sexton very well may be ineligible by the time that game is played and John Petty is a nice piece but not a 5*

Sure. UConn beat them. But I’ll take UCF’s 7 top 100 wins last year as an indicator of them being a contender for the 3-5 spot in the American. BJ Taylor Is a really good player and Tacko Fall is annoying in the paint. I also see tacko giving uconn’s young front court some trouble next year.

As for Alabama, I only meant Colin Sexton was a 5 Star and I see zero reason at this time his eligibility will be in question. The fbi holds the keys to this investigation and they aren’t about to release it to the NCAA any time soon. The only way Sexton doesn’t play is if Bama kicks him out of school like Bowen did. Petty was the 32nd ranked player in the class, that’s a pretty highly touted kid even if not a 5 Star. I dunno how Bama performs but I do know they are program with more momentum then every team in the AAC outside of UC and WSU

Either way, I’m not a fan of either of those programs but rather just trying to explain why it might be a premier game in the league.

UC and UConn clearly play the best non league schedule this year. If UConn were top 25, all 5 games would be UC and UConn Games.

I think the AAC is going to be so hard to predict 3-7. I can make cases for UConn, smu, Houston, UCF and temple

 

[auror]

This take is way off in my opinion. Rob Gray is a damn good player. He excels at arguably the most important thing in the sport - scoring the basketball. He's given us fits in the past and will continue to do so moving forward. He'll probably be in the conversation for player of the year or at the very least a spot on an all-conference team.

But he's not Jalen Adams and I think you have to look beyond the numbers on this one. Gray isn't just a minus player defensively, he's a guy you specifically seek out and try to exploit on that end. He was a big part of the reason Houston ranked only 79th last season in defensive efficiency and ultimately couldn't get enough stops to make the tournament. Unlike Adams, his physical profile limits his ceiling, especially defensively. There is a reason he was a two star recruit - despite the fact that he's turned into a really nice player, he isn't the transcendent talent that Adams is where he can elevate the performance of everyone around him. I wouldn't go as far as to call him an empty stats guy, but KenPom isn't going to tell the whole story here. Adams outplayed him convincingly last season in Hartford - I was there, sitting pretty close to the court, and Adams embraced the challenge late in the game of guarding him and he did so very effectively. It was, on Jalen's end, one of the best performances I saw all season in college basketball...and I watch a lot of college basketball. Complete command of the game on both ends and the talent disparity was pronounced when the two matched up late.

Efficient scoring despite shouldering a huge burden on offense, very good distribution, low turnovers, drawing a lot of fouls, making over 80% from the line when you get there, not committing fouls on D to stay on the court, stretching the D by shooting well enough from 3 to setup the rest of your game.

Those are all things Gray did at a very good to elite level last year. There's a reason why our offense sucked last year and theirs was very good.

Individual offense is so much more important than individual defense (Just look at Harden, Westbrook, Curry in prior years, etc.). Further, college coaches/players generally aren't good enough to pick on one defender consistently enough and there are plenty of non-scorers to hide defenders on. Their biggest weaknesses as a team on defense were fouling and rebounding, neither of which are things he directly had a hand in (he had a very low foul rate).

He may have been a minus defender, but Jalen's edge in that category isn't even close to Gray's advantage on the offensive end. It's indisputable that Gray's season was better than Jalen's, so how could my take be way off that OP underrates Gray by saying Jalen will definitively be better this season?

 

[SeattleHoop]

Efficient scoring despite shouldering a huge burden on offense, very good distribution, low turnovers, drawing a lot of fouls, making over 80% from the line when you get there, not committing fouls on D to stay on the court, stretching the D by shooting well enough from 3 to setup the rest of your game.

Those are all things Gray did at a very good to elite level last year. There's a reason why our offense sucked last year and theirs was very good.

Individual offense is so much more important than individual defense (Just look at Harden, Westbrook, Curry in prior years, etc.). Further, college coaches/players generally aren't good enough to pick on one defender consistently enough and there are plenty of non-scorers to hide defenders on. Their biggest weaknesses as a team on defense were fouling and rebounding, neither of which are things he directly had a hand in (he had a very low foul rate).

He may have been a minus defender, but Jalen's edge in that category isn't even close to Gray's advantage on the offensive end. It's indisputable that Gray's season was better than Jalen's, so how could my take be way off that OP underrates Gray by saying Jalen will definitively be better this season?

I know you are not going to give up your argument. So I don’t want to waste a lot of time on this and will keep it simple.

Anyone who has played basketball at a highly competitive level or anyone with a basketball eye (not saying you don’t) can clearly tell that Jalen has another level to his game that Rob Gray cannot touch. Gray has a beautiful shot. And he has worked extremely hard. You can tell, because he plays above his ceiling already. But Jalen has yet to reach the heights he is capable of achieving the next 2 seasons.

He is so much more natural on the court than Gray and he achieves results so effortlessly. When he mentally decided to finish Rob Gray last season. He did.

I know I am uconn biased, but objectively, I am willing to bet any NBA scout is taking a much harder look at Jalen Adams long term than Rob Gray.

 

[auror]

Anyone who has played basketball at a highly competitive level or anyone with a basketball eye (not saying you don’t) can clearly tell that Jalen has another level to his game that Rob Gray cannot touch. Gray has a beautiful shot. And he has worked extremely hard. You can tell, because he plays above his ceiling already. But Jalen has yet to reach the heights he is capable of achieving the next 2 seasons.

He is so much more natural on the court than Gray and he achieves results so effortlessly. When he mentally decided to finish Rob Gray last season. He did.

I know I am uconn biased, but objectively, I am willing to bet any NBA scout is taking a much harder look at Jalen Adams long term than Rob Gray.

I would suggest you're confusing individual NBA potential with college production.

Jalen has more levels to his current game. Which if he is consistent a natural progression would put him about as productive as Gray was last year (6 more points per game on increased shooting %s, maybe slightly more assists than Gray although Gray's crappy teammates other than Dotson hindered that a bit).

Jalen is more likely to succeed in the NBA, when the defenders are bigger and faster, and your individual defense will be more readily punished. Gray is basically Napier-sized and had eerily similar numbers in his junior year to Napier's junior year numbers (just slightly worse 3pt shooting, assist rate, and less steals, but had a bigger role in the offense on the same efficiency). Hopefully suggesting that Gray is on Napier's career arc will help you realize I'm not trying to denigrate Adams, just show that Gray is dreadfully underrated around here.

 

[KingAG]

I would suggest you're confusing individual NBA potential with college production.

Jalen has more levels to his current game. Which if he is consistent a natural progression would put him about as productive as Gray was last year (6 more points per game on increased shooting %s, maybe slightly more assists than Gray although Gray's crappy teammates other than Dotson hindered that a bit).

Jalen is more likely to succeed in the NBA, when the defenders are bigger and faster, and your individual defense will be more readily punished. Gray is basically Napier-sized and had eerily similar numbers in his junior year to Napier's junior year numbers (just slightly worse 3pt shooting, assist rate, and less steals, but had a bigger role in the offense on the same efficiency). Hopefully suggesting that Gray is on Napier's career arc will help you realize I'm not trying to denigrate Adams, just show that Gray is dreadfully underrated around here.

Or maybe you are overrating Gray. Even insinuating he may follow bazz's career arc is blasphemy. There is something to the intangible parts of the game. Bazz had a certain "IT" and dog that Gray doesnt posses. Bazz's will to win and his confidence in doing so was Jordan-esque at the college level. Watching Gray and Adams on the court together last yr was very telling. JaIen has a level he can tap into that Gray just cant reach. If we were to swap jalen with gray on this UConn team our ceiling would drop significantly and Houston's would rise significantly. I don't even think kelvin Sampson would agree with you. I think he'd swap gray for Jalen in a heart beat.

 

[auror]

Or maybe you are overrating Gray. Even insinuating he may follow bazz's career arc is blasphemy. There is something to the intangible parts of the game. Bazz had a certain "IT" and dog that Gray doesnt posses. Bazz's will to win and his confidence in doing so was Jordan-esque at the college level.

UConn during Shabazz junior year: 20-10, KenPom - 49.

Houston during Gray junior year: 21-11, Kenpom - 52.

I get it. This is a UConn board. Napier is and was incredible.

Adams is going to be really good. Gray was and is really good, too, and was significantly better than Jalen last year. It is not ludicrous to believe he will be better again this year.. but he might not be! It's just not crazy to predict it.

 

[husky429]

UConn during Shabazz junior year: 20-10, KenPom - 49.

Houston during Gray junior year: 21-11, Kenpom - 52.

I get it. This is a UConn board. Napier is and was incredible.

Adams is going to be really good. Gray was and is really good, too, and was significantly better than Jalen last year. It is not ludicrous to believe he will be better again this year.. but he might not be! It's just not crazy to predict it.

Rob gray cant pass. Teams he leads will always have a low ceiling. Not the case with jalen, regardless of individual production. Surround him with elite players and they will perform. Gray needs to "get his" to be successful.

Jalen is a scoring lead guard with amazing passing--something he developed in his off year under ollies tutelage; he didnt have that ability in high school nearly as much.

Jalen also has a better sense for the game. He knows pacing and when to go "on". And "on" for him is explosive.

College production is a wash because of passing. The 4+ more assists per game jalen had make up for the scoring difference easily. But jalen CLEARLY has another elite level to his game. No one can reasonably say gray is the better player without an asterisk.

 

[bearcatmax]

Rob gray cant pass. Teams he leads will always have a low ceiling. Not the case with jalen, regardless of individual production. Surround him with elite players and they will perform. Gray needs to "get his" to be successful.

Jalen is a scoring lead guard with amazing passing--something he developed in his off year under ollies tutelage; he didnt have that ability in high school nearly as much.

Jalen also has a better sense for the game. He knows pacing and when to go "on". And "on" for him is explosive.

College production is a wash because of passing. The 4+ more assists per game jalen had make up for the scoring difference easily. But jalen CLEARLY has another elite level to his game. No one can reasonably say gray is the better player without an asterisk.

Hope you don't mind a Bearcat fan chiming in on this....

Rob Gray was objectively better last year (better ORating, better DRating, higher win shares, higher box score +/-, etc.) but that's not meant to be a knock on Adams: Gray is just that good and so underrated nationally. You're probably right that Jalen has another level (and yes, he has shown flashes of that), but Gray's best is already pretty damn good and he brings that type of production consistently.

I should add that whenever UC plays Houston or UConn, I'm much more confident about UC's ability to stop Gray than Adams. Jalen has never really seemed to be bothered by UC's length and athleticism. I'll think during the game, "Holy , Adams is killing us," but then I'll check the box score and he only shot 7-17 (like he did in the conference tournament this past year). On the other hand, UC always seems to do a great job on Gray and I'll often come away from a game thinking he was completely shut down, but his numbers at the end of the day are so similar to Adams'. I remember thinking that after the game @ Houston this past year when Gray went 9-22. It's a very weird dynamic that I can't really explain.

 

[awfuldan]

Also, part of the reason Rob Gray put up such great numbers is because Houston played one of the softest OOC schedules in the league.

 

[upstater]

Sure. UConn beat them. But I’ll take UCF’s 7 top 100 wins last year as an indicator of them being a contender for the 3-5 spot in the American.

Top 100 is such a meaningless stat. The following were top 100 teams last year: San Francisco, Greensboro, Lehigh, St Peter's, Towson, Furman, Davidson, Fla. Gulf Coast, New Mexico, Northern Kentucky, Iona, Valpo, Fresno St, Asheville, Richmond, Winthrop, Boise St, Colorado St, Bucknell, Charleston, Bakersfield, Belmont, Eastern Tennessee, New Mexico St, Akron, Monmouth. Even the top 50 is somewhat suspect: Princeton, Vermont, Vanderbilt, Arlington, Illinois St., Nevada, Middle Tennessee, Wilmington, etc.

They had no signature OOC wins. And in conference, only their win over Cinci qualifies as a big win.

 

[KingAG]

UConn during Shabazz junior year: 20-10, KenPom - 49.

Houston during Gray junior year: 21-11, Kenpom - 52.

I get it. This is a UConn board. Napier is and was incredible.

Adams is going to be really good. Gray was and is really good, too, and was significantly better than Jalen last year. It is not ludicrous to believe he will be better again this year.. but he might not be! It's just not crazy to predict it.

Predicting Gray will be as good as Shabazz is indeed ludicrous. Also saying Gray was "significantly" better than Adams last yr is a major over statement. Numbers don't tell the whole story. Jalen carried a lot more on his shoulders, played a much tougher schedule, and dealt with injures for the last 1/3 of the yr. And still head to head outclassed Gray. Gray is good I agree, but I believe you are over stating his ablility

 

[auror]

Predicting Gray will be as good as Shabazz is indeed ludicrous. Also saying Gray was "significantly" better than Adams last yr is a major over statement. Numbers don't tell the whole story. Jalen carried a lot more on his shoulders, played a much tougher schedule, and dealt with injures for the last 1/3 of the yr. And still head to head outclassed Gray. Gray is good I agree, but I believe you are over stating his ablility

I'm not predicting senior Gray WILL be senior Napier. I'm suggesting he could be and that he's had a similar career thus far. I'd go as far as to say it's quite unlikely, but the similar production thus far should make any UConn fan re-consider their thoughts on how good Gray is.

Jalen carried less on his shoulders than Gray, who was a more important part of his team's significantly better offense (even adjusted for schedule). I'd argue UConn had more talent on the team even after the injuries aside from Gray/Adams than Houston did, too, if maybe more inexperienced.

 

[KingAG]

I'm not predicting senior Gray WILL be senior Napier. I'm suggesting he could be and that he's had a similar career thus far. I'd go as far as to say it's quite unlikely, but the similar production thus far should make any UConn fan re-consider their thoughts on how good Gray is.

Jalen carried less on his shoulders than Gray, who was a more important part of his team's significantly better offense (even adjusted for schedule). I'd argue UConn had more talent on the team even after the injuries aside from Gray/Adams than Houston did, too, if maybe more inexperienced.

Jalen Adams did not have a teammate as good as dotson. When jalen didn't play in the Houston game UConn got destroyed

 

[kobe]

I'm not predicting senior Gray WILL be senior Napier. I'm suggesting he could be and that he's had a similar career thus far. I'd go as far as to say it's quite unlikely, but the similar production thus far should make any UConn fan re-consider their thoughts on how good Gray is.

Jalen carried less on his shoulders than Gray, who was a more important part of his team's significantly better offense (even adjusted for schedule). I'd argue UConn had more talent on the team even after the injuries aside from Gray/Adams than Houston did, too, if maybe more inexperienced.

Maybe it is just me but I've never been impressed with Rob Gray. I went back and looked at his numbers and they were quite a bit better than I though in terms of shooting percentages. It seemed like against us he scored a lot of inconsequential points.

 

[auror]

Maybe it is just me but I've never been impressed with Rob Gray. I went back and looked at his numbers and they were quite a bit better than I though in terms of shooting percentages. It seemed like against us he scored a lot of inconsequential points.

He had an 0-7 3pt% day against you guys, oof, and still shot 38% from the year. That's a recipe for underrating him based on anecdotal small sample size for sure. Plus you beat them twice fairly easily.

 

[mauconnfan]

I'm not predicting senior Gray WILL be senior Napier. I'm suggesting he could be and that he's had a similar career thus far. I'd go as far as to say it's quite unlikely, but the similar production thus far should make any UConn fan re-consider their thoughts on how good Gray is.

Jalen carried less on his shoulders than Gray, who was a more important part of his team's significantly better offense (even adjusted for schedule). I'd argue UConn had more talent on the team even after the injuries aside from Gray/Adams than Houston did, too, if maybe more inexperienced.

Gray put up quiet numbers, I was impressed the end of the game he had filled some stats which didn't seem to equate but nonetheless were official. But he's not the guy who scares me, not a guy who a good defender can't hold down. Not sure why so many are impressed with this is a kid, shoots the ball often, doesn't seem to care too much about the team and as 429 said above is a kid who needs to get his. A couple of good players leaving will leave him to be doubled more and maybe allow teams to find him easier or at least care to. I would say him getting his doesn't make that team better as long as you can control the others. UConn had a tough time controlling a couple others who certainly scared me more than Gray. Jalen was the guy teams needed to know wouldn't beat them. They saw the games in the early season tourney where he went off and had tremendous numbers with the likes of Oklahoma State unable to guard him. He was the target on D with many teams wing defenders sloughing off to help at all times with very few other options on offense for UConn. He's a much better creator and passer, but that points to positions as they differ.

Anyone looking at these 2 and thinking clearly that Gray is better is whacked, too many variables to allow "meaningless stats" to make this call. May be a toss up at best but I expect Adams will protect to be better in 17-18 with a fuller, healthier team surrounding him.

 

[KingAG]

Gray put up quiet numbers, I was impressed the end of the game he had filled some stats which didn't seem to equate but nonetheless were official. But he's not the guy who scares me, not a guy who a good defender can't hold down. Not sure why so many are impressed with this is a kid, shoots the ball often, doesn't seem to care too much about the team and as 429 said above is a kid who needs to get his. A couple of good players leaving will leave him to be doubled more and maybe allow teams to find him easier or at least care to. I would say him getting his doesn't make that team better as long as you can control the others. UConn had a tough time controlling a couple others who certainly scared me more than Gray. Jalen was the guy teams needed to know wouldn't beat them. They saw the games in the early season tourney where he went off and had tremendous numbers with the likes of Oklahoma State unable to guard him. He was the target on D with many teams wing defenders sloughing off to help at all times with very few other options on offense for UConn. He's a much better creator and passer, but that points to positions as they differ.

Anyone looking at these 2 and thinking clearly that Gray is better is whacked, too many variables to allow "meaningless stats" to make this call. May be a toss up at best but I expect Adams will protect to be better in 17-18 with a fuller, healthier team surrounding him.

You made my point alot better than me lol

 

[mauconnfan]

You made my point alot better than me lol

No yours was very good I just missed it until now, jumped over it sorry. I was so frustrated reading the "Gray love" replies I had to make my point. Same page AntG

 

[auror]

Gray put up quiet numbers, I was impressed the end of the game he had filled some stats which didn't seem to equate but nonetheless were official. But he's not the guy who scares me, not a guy who a good defender can't hold down. Not sure why so many are impressed with this is a kid, shoots the ball often, doesn't seem to care too much about the team and as 429 said above is a kid who needs to get his. A couple of good players leaving will leave him to be doubled more and maybe allow teams to find him easier or at least care to. I would say him getting his doesn't make that team better as long as you can control the others. UConn had a tough time controlling a couple others who certainly scared me more than Gray. Jalen was the guy teams needed to know wouldn't beat them. They saw the games in the early season tourney where he went off and had tremendous numbers with the likes of Oklahoma State unable to guard him. He was the target on D with many teams wing defenders sloughing off to help at all times with very few other options on offense for UConn. He's a much better creator and passer, but that points to positions as they differ.

Anyone looking at these 2 and thinking clearly that Gray is better is whacked, too many variables to allow "meaningless stats" to make this call. May be a toss up at best but I expect Adams will protect to be better in 17-18 with a fuller, healthier team surrounding him.

This is nonsense. Let's break it down.

But he's not the guy who scares me, not a guy who a good defender can't hold down.

On the year, defenders did a very poor job of holding him down overall. Because he's good.

Not sure why so many are impressed with this is a kid, shoots the ball often, doesn't seem to care too much about the team and as 429 said above is a kid who needs to get his.

They're impressed because he took a lot of shots and made a much higher percentage of them than Adams did with his lesser attempts. Usage is a skill curve... the more shots you take, the harder it is to shoot well. Of the 27 guys who used more possession than Gray did, Jawun Evans and Mike Daum are the only two who used them more effectively, and Evans is now in the NBA and Daum is the best player most people haven't heard of. The not caring about the team thing is a personal attack based on nothing.

I would say him getting his doesn't make that team better as long as you can control the others

High usage players create easier shots for their teammates not just by actual assists, but by allowing them to take easier shots and not force things. Read up on usage and skill curves, this is a good primer featuring an old friend of ours. So by taking and making a lot of shots efficiently, he's effectively making his teammates harder to control. That's why:

UConn had a tough time controlling a couple others who certainly scared me more than Gray.

He allows his teammates to be put in positions to succeed. Now that being said, you might still control them easier this year because most of them suck, but that's not Gray's fault.

Jalen was the guy teams needed to know wouldn't beat them. They saw the games in the early season tourney where he went off and had tremendous numbers with the likes of Oklahoma State unable to guard him. He was the target on D with many teams wing defenders sloughing off to help at all times with very few other options on offense for UConn.

This could all literally be about Gray if you swapped out Gray's name for Jalen, except Gray performed way better even under those targeted D circumstances. You guys are creating narratives about how amazing Jalen was because he flashed NBA potential in a few games, but on the whole he was much worse than Gray and both the stats and the performance of the respective offenses makes it abundantly clear.

 

[husky429]

This is nonsense. Let's break it down.



On the year, defenders did a very poor job of holding him down overall. Because he's good.



They're impressed because he took a lot of shots and made a much higher percentage of them than Adams did with his lesser attempts. Usage is a skill curve... the more shots you take, the harder it is to shoot well. Of the 27 guys who used more possession than Gray did, Jawun Evans and Mike Daum are the only two who used them more effectively, and Evans is now in the NBA and Daum is the best player most people haven't heard of. The not caring about the team thing is a personal attack based on nothing.



High usage players create easier shots for their teammates not just by actual assists, but by allowing them to take easier shots and not force things. Read up on usage and skill curves, this is a good primer featuring an old friend of ours. So by taking and making a lot of shots efficiently, he's effectively making his teammates harder to control. That's why:



He allows his teammates to be put in positions to succeed. Now that being said, you might still control them easier this year because most of them suck, but that's not Gray's fault.



This could all literally be about Gray if you swapped out Gray's name for Jalen, except Gray performed way better even under those targeted D circumstances. You guys are creating narratives about how amazing Jalen was because he flashed NBA potential in a few games, but on the whole he was much worse than Gray and both the stats and the performance of the respective offenses makes it abundantly clear.

Sometimes when you're alone in you're thinking, it's because you're wrong man.

It is reasonable to argue that Gray was better than Jalen last year. Ok? It's also reasonable to suggest that Jalen was better. They are close to equal in terms of talent RIGHT NOW. You are acting like Gray is worlds better than Jalen, and it's simply not true.

You don't seem to be acknowledging Jalen's higher ceiling, or the simple fact that Jalen was an elite distributor and Gray was sub-par at best. Or that Gray had better teammates. Or Jalen's injuries.

We may be ignoring that Jalen's scoring was not as good as it could have been--the last 1/3 of the conference schedule. Maybe his higher turnovers as well, to be fair.

TLDR: Cool it. You're on a uconn board, dude.

 

[mauconnfan]

auror, you say mine is nonsense I say all of yours is nonsense. We won't win here, but can't imagine you saw a game Gray played in if you think he's this good? LOL

 

[KingAG]

@auror
So you'd swap jalen Adams for Rob Gray is what you are saying? If so you may be the only guy in America who would. Your argument is basically that Rob Gray shoots better than Jalen Adams, which no one is disputing by the way. Where you are losing people is when you refuse to acknowledge that Jalen is better at everything else tangible and intangible. He's bigger, stronger, better passer, way better defender, better rebounder, better at driving to the hoop, and has an all around bigger impact on the game. JA draws the attention of every one in the building including opposing coaches and players Gray does not. You can't base your assessment solely on efficiency its flawed. Steve Nash is historically more efficient than westbrook, but is he better?

 

[champs99and04]

Efficient scoring despite shouldering a huge burden on offense, very good distribution, low turnovers, drawing a lot of fouls, making over 80% from the line when you get there, not committing fouls on D to stay on the court, stretching the D by shooting well enough from 3 to setup the rest of your game.

Those are all things Gray did at a very good to elite level last year. There's a reason why our offense sucked last year and theirs was very good.

Individual offense is so much more important than individual defense (Just look at Harden, Westbrook, Curry in prior years, etc.). Further, college coaches/players generally aren't good enough to pick on one defender consistently enough and there are plenty of non-scorers to hide defenders on. Their biggest weaknesses as a team on defense were fouling and rebounding, neither of which are things he directly had a hand in (he had a very low foul rate).

He may have been a minus defender, but Jalen's edge in that category isn't even close to Gray's advantage on the offensive end. It's indisputable that Gray's season was better than Jalen's, so how could my take be way off that OP underrates Gray by saying Jalen will definitively be better this season?

I don't think you're way off in saying Jalen won't be definitively better than Gray this season, I think you're under-estimating the trajectory Jalen could be on. If Jalen makes a leap this year, that won't put him on Gray's level, that will put him well above Gray (assuming Gray doesn't get markedly better himself). The player we saw in the conference tournament, or to some extent in Maui, was a NPOY caliber player. That designation is quite a bit different than being all AAC first team.

Granted I'm making some projections here, so in that respect I can't blame you for seeing things differently. Nobody harped on Jalen's poor shooting numbers - or the fact that our offense was abjectly dreadful - during conference play more than me, so I'm fully aware that Jalen as a player had a long way to go last season. He wasn't being held back entirely by the roster, he was contributing to holding the roster back as well. He was also an extremely drifty defender away from the ball, so I'm not trying to paint the picture that he was Patrick Beverly on defense. He was probably the fourth best defender on the team, at best.

I'm not sure about your argument that individual offense matters so much more than individual defense. I can see what you mean, of course - you're not taking Marcus Smart over Kyrie Irving, and the relationship between willing your offense to respectability - like a Harden or Westbrook whose usage is obscene - is not inversely proportional to the challenges of hiding a bad defender or two. It's not a zero sum game where Gray being a 9 out of 10 on offense and a 2 out of 10 on defense makes him a net even player.

But defense can still be the difference between "indisputably great" and "polarizing." There is a reason Chris Paul is unanimously considered a top ten player in the NBA while Isaiah Thomas is a guy executives simply don't know what to do with. In a certain context, defense can absolutely be as imperative as offense - you're taking the most extreme examples where players are irreplaceable offensively, but plenty of scenarios exist where greatness was absolutely required on both ends for a team to reach their ceiling (Kemba in 2011, Shabazz in 2014). So while Gray is a player who you can hide if you surround him with a bunch of other great defensive players, he's not a player who you will ever be great defensively because of. That's why Shabazz, even as a junior, despite the similar statistical output, was in a different stratosphere than Gray as a player. He was indispensable to both our offensive and defensive systems, just like Draymond Green is to Golden State. The valuation between players like Draymond and Kevin Love is about the same as it will be between Jalen and Gray. JMO.