American and Mountain West should merge.

[UConnDan97]

BYU joining the AAC at 1.8 mil will lose money, period!

They are probably the only G5 school that can say that (maybe Boise with the CBS sweetheart deal too). But it's true. They know it. That's why they said no in the first place. Your desire to have them won't change the math...

 

[NYUConn]

BYU joining the AAC at 1.8 mil will lose money, period!

They are probably the only G5 school that can say that (maybe Boise with the CBS sweetheart deal too). But it's true. They know it. That's why they said no in the first place. Your desire to have them won't change the math...

I'm not denying that financially they will have to take a haircut, I was very up front about that from the beginning.

However, when you have the financial backing of an entire religion, taking a haircut on your TV deal becomes more palatable.

 

[UConnJim]

Just to further drive home the "BYU ain't comin' for 1.8 mil" nail in the coffin, here is the BYU football schedule this year:

Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Toledo, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Boise State, Cincinnati, Southern Utah, UMass, Utah State.

Why would they be joining us again???

Context: BYU plays 6 home games this year: UCLA, Toledo, Miss St., Southern Utah, UMass, and Utah St. Next year, they play 5 home games: Utah, Wisconsin, Boise St., San Jose St., and UMass (again!). These are OK home schedules, but not great. It is very hard to schedule as an independent although their traditional rivalries with Utah St. and Utah and new rivalry with Boise St. helps them schedule.

 

[UConnDan97]

Yes, and the point is if they go 11-1, or even 12-0, and don't get into the playoff they go to the Poinsettia Bowl instead of a NY6 bowl because the NY6 contract does not include independents in its highest ranking school of the G5 clause. It's undeniable their bowl access in a conference, any conference, is better than being independent.

I'm not sure you understand how this works.

Are you telling me that you think the AAC champ at 11-1 is going to be a higher ranked G5 than BYU at 11-1 with that schedule??? Not gonna happen. Literally not gonna happen. They gain nothing by joining...

 

[NYUConn]

I'm not sure you understand how this works.

Are you telling me that you think the AAC champ at 11-1 is going to be a higher ranked G5 than BYU at 11-1 with that schedule??? Not gonna happen. Literally not gonna happen. They gain nothing by joining...

You don't get how the NY6 bowl line up works.

Unless BYU finishes in the Top 4, they have no access to a NY6 bowl. That is a fact. That is not open for debate.

If Houston finishes 12-1 ranked 7 and BYU finishes 11-1 ranked 5, contractually, Houston will go to a NY6 bowl and BYU will not.

These are the rules in which the NY6 and CFP are governed.

 

[noeynox]

We don't need to throw a life line to the MW or to BYU at this point.

The schools that were interviewed by the Big 12 were largely in this conference.

While true, we've seen a lot of talk of p5 scheduling exclusively against p5. I think there is value in schools like colorado state and new Mexico. I fear where this is eventually headed for the American are home and home games against Sunday Belt and Conference USA schools.

 

[The Viking]

Here's a question - when the next AAC contract is opening up, what if we have the same conversations with ESPN that other conferences have - what will you pay us if we add X Y and/or Z..

The AAC is the best G5 out there - they can use that and 1 or 2 quality additions to gain some more $ perhaps.

 

[whaler11]

Lot of solid horse tradin here.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Lot of solid horse tradin here.

But Flug told us there was a lot of horse tradin going on

 

[VAHuskyFan]

There is no way to reshuffle the G5 deck to create a 6th power conference.

A reshuffled G5 also won't move the needle on conference TV revenue. So why bother?

The only thing that would help UConn, short of a P5 invite, is the ability to sell our own media rights since those are worth far more than the median in any possible G5 arrangement. Hell, our WBB rights alone are worth more than the entire TV value of most G5 programs.

We need to focus on capturing the value of our own brand and not worry about rearranging deck chairs to build a slightly improved G5 conference.

 

[Exit 4]

Its over. The only move left in CRA is watching OU and UT land somewhere else at which time the B12 left overs become G5 status. The golden age of e-z TV $$ is in the rear view mirror now, that is why there is no chance of saving the B12 (through a GOR extension) or stitching together a best of MWC and AAC for a better tv deal.

Even the B1G will likely see a revenue backslide at some point in the not too distant future.

 

[Fishy]

While true, we've seen a lot of talk of p5 scheduling exclusively against p5. I think there is value in schools like colorado state and new Mexico. I fear where this is eventually headed for the American are home and home games against Sunday Belt and Conference USA schools.

There's no value in those schools for us.

As we saw leaving the Big East for the American, this sort of transfer does nothing to help the schools moving down, but can help the schools moving up. The move has been nothing but brutal for UConn and Cincy, but Houston, SMU and the like? They might complain, but they have it better now than they did.

I see no reason to offer up another rope ladder to lesser programs. There's zero in it for us.

 

[Exit 4]

There's zero in it for us.

Yes - because the TV $ is gone. Cord cutting has started clipping wings for real.

If OU and UT came to the American we'd probably see a very disappointing bump in tv $ for our conference...because the overflowing lake of tv $ has dried up - big time... even for marquee programs. Yankees still are not on Comcast affecting 900k subscribers over 30 cents per house per month.

 

[UConnDan97]

You don't get how the NY6 bowl line up works.

Unless BYU finishes in the Top 4, they have no access to a NY6 bowl. That is a fact. That is not open for debate.

If Houston finishes 12-1 ranked 7 and BYU finishes 11-1 ranked 5, contractually, Houston will go to a NY6 bowl and BYU will not.

These are the rules in which the NY6 and CFP are governed.

Dude, this is straight from Wiki:

Division I FBS IndependentsEdit
Of the independent Football Bowl Subdivision teams, there are contractual agreements to play in certain bowl games should they become bowl eligible. All of these teams are eligible to be selected for a New Year's Six bowl game before accepting any other contractual bids.

So what am I missing here? I'm seriously not trying to pick a fight, but the way I'm reading it, all the independents are eligible for that game...

 

[junglehusky]

There's no value in those schools for us.

As we saw leaving the Big East for the American, this sort of transfer does nothing to help the schools moving down, but can help the schools moving up. The move has been nothing but brutal for UConn and Cincy, but Houston, SMU and the like? They might complain, but they have it better now than they did.

I see no reason to offer up another rope ladder to lesser programs. There's zero in it for us.

What are you talking about? There's lots of money in it for us. I read it in a @nelsonmuntz post. You'll sure have egg on your face when we cash our paycheck from the networks!

 

[NYUConn]

Dude, this is straight from Wiki:

Division I FBS IndependentsEdit
Of the independent Football Bowl Subdivision teams, there are contractual agreements to play in certain bowl games should they become bowl eligible. All of these teams are eligible to be selected for a New Year's Six bowl game before accepting any other contractual bids.

So what am I missing here? I'm seriously not trying to pick a fight, but the way I'm reading it, all the independents are eligible for that game...

They are eligible but not guaranteed that's the difference.

A 12-1 American team is guaranteed a NY6 spot as long as they end ranked higher than every other G5 program including BYU.

The G5 are guaranteed a spot through their conference contracts, so BYU would need to secure an at-large bid from a NY6 bowl to get in.

So is it possible that an 11-1 BYU school ranked in the top 10 can get a NY6 bid? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No.

So BYU would need a NY6 bowl to pass on teams from all other P5 conferences to get an invite.

I don't know about you, but I cannot imagine that a NY6 bowl would pass on a 10-2 B1G program or a 10-2 SEC program for BYU.

 

[UConnDan97]

They are eligible but not guaranteed that's the difference.

A 12-1 American team is guaranteed a NY6 spot as long as they end ranked higher than every other G5 program including BYU.

The G5 are guaranteed a spot through their conference contracts, so BYU would need to secure an at-large bid from a NY6 bowl to get in.

So is it possible that an 11-1 BYU school ranked in the top 10 can get a NY6 bid? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No.

So BYU would need a NY6 bowl to pass on teams from all other P5 conferences to get an invite.

I don't know about you, but I cannot imagine that a NY6 bowl would pass on a 10-2 B1G program or a 10-2 SEC program for BYU.

I'll take your word for it.

However, it still doesn't change the money issue, which is why they said no in the first place. The contract that they currently have with ESPN gives them around 1.2 million dollars per home game, if I understand the contract correctly. So we are talking about a 7+ million dollar haul. They would have to make up the 5 million dollar difference some other way if they joined the AAC, not to mention any loss in ticket revenue that might occur from switching games like Michigan State and West Virginia for games like Tulsa, Tulane, and SMU.

When our contract was at 10 million estimated, they were on board. At 1.8 million, the answer was "no way, Joseph". If we are serious about getting them into the AAC, it will likely have to be during the next tv contract negotiation for Aresco in the year 2020...

 

[UConnfan8]

I wish there was a way we could jettison Tulane, Tulsa, and SMU. The AAC's biggest problem is that the bottom of the conference from a branding, TV $ generation, and overall success standpoint is at Sun Belt level. These schools, and to a lesser extent ECU, bring absolutely zilch to the table. If somehow we could reconfigure the conference to:

UConn
UH
UC
UCF
USF
Memphis
Temple
ECU
Navy - FB only
BYU - FB only
Boise - FB only
Army - FB only
Air Force - FB only
Colorado State - FB only

This would be a formidable football conference. Eight basketball teams would be a bit difficult, though at least there'd be far less dead weight, and UConn, UC, Temple, and Memphis would be regular tournament participants. Perhaps a scheduling agreement with the Big East could be reached in some capacity.

You people act like temple and Memphis are guaranteed to be over .500 programs, in the big dance every year. That is simply not true. UConn is the ONLY AAC school that has a chance at withstanding rebuilding year(s). Even Cincy doesn't have me convinced. I preach and preach this so many times. We must protect basketball at all costs. If we are going to go and reach out to possible new conference mates, Gonzaga, VCU, Butler, SDSU etc also need to be considered. Yes, I'm no stunad and realize football plays a major factor in what basketball does. But look at this years upcoming league schedule in ball....it's ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE!!! When basketball loses, football loses, the university loses, we lose money and we lose eyes watching us for further expansion in the future. PROTECT BASKETBALL at ALL COSTS.

 

[whaler11]

Does anyone else feel like a voodoo doll that gets stabbed in the ballz everytime 'protect the basketball program' is typed.

 

[whaler11]

They are eligible but not guaranteed that's the difference.

A 12-1 American team is guaranteed a NY6 spot as long as they end ranked higher than every other G5 program including BYU.

The G5 are guaranteed a spot through their conference contracts, so BYU would need to secure an at-large bid from a NY6 bowl to get in.

So is it possible that an 11-1 BYU school ranked in the top 10 can get a NY6 bid? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No.

So BYU would need a NY6 bowl to pass on teams from all other P5 conferences to get an invite.

I don't know about you, but I cannot imagine that a NY6 bowl would pass on a 10-2 B1G program or a 10-2 SEC program for BYU.

Respectfully - I think what you and @UConnDan97 are both right.

BYU is pretty much locked out of the bowls and they aren't going to join the AAC for 1.8 million.

I think what you guys are missing is that BYU runs their football program as part of their greater goal to spread their religion.

They care more about their ability to get in front of potential converts than losing to Ohio State in a semifinal or to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.

You have to approach it from the viewpoint of religion, not football.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

What are you talking about? There's lots of money in it for us. I read it in a @nelsonmuntz post. You'll sure have egg on your face when we cash our paycheck from the networks!

Fair point, especially when the Big 10 invite is just around the corner. Waiting for that is the much better strategy.

 

[Marty Jackson]

There is no way to reshuffle the G5 deck to create a 6th power conference.

A reshuffled G5 also won't move the needle on conference TV revenue. So why bother?

The only thing that would help UConn, short of a P5 invite, is the ability to sell our own media rights since those are worth far more than the median in any possible G5 arrangement. Hell, our WBB rights alone are worth more than the entire TV value of most G5 programs.

We need to focus on capturing the value of our own brand and not worry about rearranging deck chairs to build a slightly improved G5 conference.

I think a solid P6 league does move the needle.
It's all about match ups. If the AAC can produce a couple top 25 match ups and even get a team in the top 10 why shouldn't it get paid as such?

The goal of the networks is to diminish the G5 leagues. Your point that wbb can get a better deal than what the entire Uconn AD gets suggests there might be some other artificial factor driving the market. (i.e. ESPN)

 

[noeynox]

Respectfully - I think what you and @UConnDan97 are both right.

BYU is pretty much locked out of the bowls and they aren't going to join the AAC for 1.8 million.

I think what you guys are missing is that BYU runs their football program as part of their greater goal to spread their religion.

They care more about their ability to get in front of potential converts than losing to Ohio State in a semifinal or to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.

You have to approach it from the viewpoint of religion, not football.

They could be allowed to keep their ESPN contract. I believe this was offered to them before also. Did not join last time because I believe they were holding out for a big 12 invite. Now that they know that invite is never coming maybe they will reconsider.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

They could be allowed to keep their ESPN contract. I believe this was offered to them before also. Did not join last time because I believe they were holding out for a big 12 invite. Now that they know that invite is never coming maybe they will reconsider.

The next option is for the AAC to let every school do something like what BYU is doing. Turn half or more of each team's schedule into Tier 3.

 

[junglehusky]

Fair point, especially when the Big 10 invite is just around the corner. Waiting for that is the much better strategy.

Not waiting. Building academics, research, infrastructure to AAU level. Whether the Big 10 is around the corner or not.

 

[noeynox]

The next option is for the AAC to let every school do something like what BYU is doing. Turn half or more of each team's schedule into Tier 3.

I agree. They would make more money like this. Maybe the can pool some of that for the schools that won't really draw anything on their own.

The next TV contract cannot pay peanuts. We've entered that stage where we know there is no P5 lifeboat imminent, the school/conference is going to have to figure it out on its own.

 

[Alum86]

I see no reason to offer up another rope ladder to lesser programs. There's zero in it for us.[/QUOTE]

100% agree w/ Fishy. No UMass to the AAC chatter, please

 

[itgoeslike]

The Big 12 expansion process indicated that BYU and CSU are the two teams not in the AAC that potentially add the most value (BYU's political headwinds aside). However, the AAC should not pursue BYU. They need to decide it's in their best interest to join the AAC. Adding those two teams could make sense. The AAC could also consider adding Boise State and SDSU as football only members down the road if it made sense.

Aresco traded dollars for guaranteed national exposure with its meager deal with ESPN. Subsequently, the top teams in the AAC have proven they can deliver a reasonable level of viewership. This combined with adding BYU and exposure into the Denver market should help bolster the TV contract in 2019. While BYU does have a decent contract with ESPN (which expires around the same time as the AAC deal) it has to be compared with the AAC's total distribution which includes NCAA credits, Playoff and NY6 bowl dollars. It is still dreadful by P5 standards, but closer to BYU's take. I think a new TV deal could keep BYU about where they are now but with potentially more exposure for all sports, improved bowl access, and greater stability.

 

[noeynox]

@itgoeslike , good post.

 

[itgoeslike]

@itgoeslike , good post.

Thanks.