American and Mountain West should merge. | Page 3 | The Boneyard

American and Mountain West should merge.

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nelsonmuntz

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What are you talking about? There's lots of money in it for us. I read it in a @nelsonmuntz post. You'll sure have egg on your face when we cash our paycheck from the networks!

Fair point, especially when the Big 10 invite is just around the corner. Waiting for that is the much better strategy.
 
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There is no way to reshuffle the G5 deck to create a 6th power conference.

A reshuffled G5 also won't move the needle on conference TV revenue. So why bother?

The only thing that would help UConn, short of a P5 invite, is the ability to sell our own media rights since those are worth far more than the median in any possible G5 arrangement. Hell, our WBB rights alone are worth more than the entire TV value of most G5 programs.

We need to focus on capturing the value of our own brand and not worry about rearranging deck chairs to build a slightly improved G5 conference.
I think a solid P6 league does move the needle.
It's all about match ups. If the AAC can produce a couple top 25 match ups and even get a team in the top 10 why shouldn't it get paid as such?

The goal of the networks is to diminish the G5 leagues. Your point that wbb can get a better deal than what the entire Uconn AD gets suggests there might be some other artificial factor driving the market. (i.e. ESPN)
 
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Respectfully - I think what you and @UConnDan97 are both right.

BYU is pretty much locked out of the bowls and they aren't going to join the AAC for 1.8 million.

I think what you guys are missing is that BYU runs their football program as part of their greater goal to spread their religion.

They care more about their ability to get in front of potential converts than losing to Ohio State in a semifinal or to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.

You have to approach it from the viewpoint of religion, not football.
They could be allowed to keep their ESPN contract. I believe this was offered to them before also. Did not join last time because I believe they were holding out for a big 12 invite. Now that they know that invite is never coming maybe they will reconsider.
 

nelsonmuntz

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They could be allowed to keep their ESPN contract. I believe this was offered to them before also. Did not join last time because I believe they were holding out for a big 12 invite. Now that they know that invite is never coming maybe they will reconsider.

The next option is for the AAC to let every school do something like what BYU is doing. Turn half or more of each team's schedule into Tier 3.
 

junglehusky

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Fair point, especially when the Big 10 invite is just around the corner. Waiting for that is the much better strategy.
Not waiting. Building academics, research, infrastructure to AAU level. Whether the Big 10 is around the corner or not.
 
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The next option is for the AAC to let every school do something like what BYU is doing. Turn half or more of each team's schedule into Tier 3.
I agree. They would make more money like this. Maybe the can pool some of that for the schools that won't really draw anything on their own.

The next TV contract cannot pay peanuts. We've entered that stage where we know there is no P5 lifeboat imminent, the school/conference is going to have to figure it out on its own.
 

Alum86

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I see no reason to offer up another rope ladder to lesser programs. There's zero in it for us.[/QUOTE]

100% agree w/ Fishy. No UMass to the AAC chatter, please
 
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The Big 12 expansion process indicated that BYU and CSU are the two teams not in the AAC that potentially add the most value (BYU's political headwinds aside). However, the AAC should not pursue BYU. They need to decide it's in their best interest to join the AAC. Adding those two teams could make sense. The AAC could also consider adding Boise State and SDSU as football only members down the road if it made sense.

Aresco traded dollars for guaranteed national exposure with its meager deal with ESPN. Subsequently, the top teams in the AAC have proven they can deliver a reasonable level of viewership. This combined with adding BYU and exposure into the Denver market should help bolster the TV contract in 2019. While BYU does have a decent contract with ESPN (which expires around the same time as the AAC deal) it has to be compared with the AAC's total distribution which includes NCAA credits, Playoff and NY6 bowl dollars. It is still dreadful by P5 standards, but closer to BYU's take. I think a new TV deal could keep BYU about where they are now but with potentially more exposure for all sports, improved bowl access, and greater stability.
 
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Quantity does not improve quality. It's just more mediocrity in the form of programs (Whether they are Football or Basketball) that fans don't care about.

The more I think about it, While it may have started out this way, ESPN's current stance to "lock out" UConn from a P5 conference has less to do with any vendetta against the school per se, and more to do with having a monstrous and unforeseen ROI on their AAC contract. They don't want any AAC school to get selected. At this point, ESPN isn't screwing the AAC, The old Big East, NBC, and FOX did. NBC and Fox didn't foresee the value of the conference and underbid and the old Big East media contract had a matching provision, which actually calls into question why did that provision even exist? All but 4 football programs (at the time) were gone. Be that as it may, ESPN can legitimately hide behind a claim they are making sound business decisions.

Here's the issue they will have with that: Their margins are higher on AAC broadcasts featuring the top tier AAC names, but that only continues so long as the games are compelling. The demand for those broadcasts is going to shrink at an accelerated pace if those programs continue to atrophy due to a lack of finances. Eventually ESPN will be paying the same small fee for content that nobody is watching.
 

Husky25

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Here's the issue they will have with that: Their margins are higher on AAC broadcasts featuring the top tier AAC names, but that only continues so long as the games are compelling. The demand for those broadcasts is going to shrink at an accelerated pace if those programs continue to atrophy due to a lack of finances. Eventually ESPN will be paying the same small fee for content that nobody is watching.
"They" being who? ESPN, UConn, the AAC?

I didn't say it wasn't a paradox. I merely implied that mediocrity + mediocrity merely improves the degree to which a conference is mediocre.
 
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"They" being who? ESPN, UConn, the AAC?

I didn't say it wasn't a paradox. I merely implied that mediocrity + mediocrity merely improves the degree to which a conference is mediocre.

ESPN. I was replying to your (likely correct) description of ESPN's position in all of this being based on their ROI on the contract. I should have edited out other portions of the quote.
 

Husky25

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ESPN. I was replying to your (likely correct) description of ESPN's position in all of this being based on their ROI on the contract. I should have edited out other portions of the quote.
Fair enough...I will now afford you two "likes." :)
 
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Respectfully - I think what you and @UConnDan97 are both right.

BYU is pretty much locked out of the bowls and they aren't going to join the AAC for 1.8 million.

I think what you guys are missing is that BYU runs their football program as part of their greater goal to spread their religion.

They care more about their ability to get in front of potential converts than losing to Ohio State in a semifinal or to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.

You have to approach it from the viewpoint of religion, not football.

This is correct regarding BYU. The access bowl slot is truly irrelevant to them in the scheme of things, especially when the trade-off is guaranteed games against schools like Michigan State and UCLA in the regular season for more money. People advocating BYU to join the AAC or MWC are basically saying, "Give up your bigger TV contract and guaranteed regular season games against P5 games for a 1-in-60ish *chance* at an access bowl vs. a P5 team!" In reality, that's simply not a very good deal for BYU... especially where whaler11 has noted that the school has a broader purpose of spreading their religion. They'll take the guaranteed exposure of multiple nationally televised games in September and October against P5 schools than a non-guaranteed 1-in-60ish chance at an access bowl every single time. The access bowl is a red herring with respect to BYU (and it might be a red herring for UConn, too).

The other factor is that Utah is in the Pac-12. The fact that Utah is in a P5 conference means that BYU cannot, under any circumstances, be *structurally* in an inferior position. Being independent at least allows for BYU to argue that it's "special" compared to Utah (e.g. "We can pull off independence and an ESPN contract with our national fan base that Utah can't"), whereas BYU joining a G5 means 100% admitting that they are *structurally* inferior to Utah. BYU simply won't accept that type of status. It's a non-starter.

This would be similar to if Michigan State was in the Big Ten while Michigan was on the outside looking in. Michigan would rather die a fiery death as an independent than to ever join the MAC or any G5 league because Michigan believes that they are superior to MSU in every single way (academically, athletically, fan base size, etc.). BYU legitimately believes that they are the "Michigan" in this scenario while Utah is "Michigan State".

Frankly, the BYU situation is instructive for UConn. Up until now, I didn't think that UConn should ever consider independence for football. UConn had to do everything it could within the confines of a football conference in order to aim for a P5 spot. Now, though, I think P5 spots are going to be foreclosed for the next generation. The Big Ten and ACC are simply too fat and happy where it would take a Notre Dame/Texas-type addition (or at least an Oklahoma-sized addition) to generate any movement. What is the best option for UConn to maximize revenue in the face of this reality but still holding onto football at a high enough level to take advantage of conference realignment if things DO start moving again? Maybe it's football independence and putting basketball into the Big East.

Now, independence is certainly very risky. A BYU-type independence by choice is better than being in a G5 league, but a UMass-type independence that is not by choice is definitely NOT better than being in a G5 league. UMass would go for an AAC membership in a heartbeat, so UConn has to consider whether pastures are truly greener elsewhere. That's where UConn might be able to leverage its basketball programs (both men's and women's) in scheduling arrangements with P5 schools - this is an advantage that UMass doesn't have.

Anyway, that's just food for thought. I'm not quite sure that independence is really the right answer for UConn because of the risks mentioned before, but with the Big 12 passing up on expansion entirely and the rest of the P5 getting fat off of huge TV deals that last until well into the next decade, it's at least an option worth evaluating a bit more despite being a non-starter before yesterday.
 

ConnHuskBask

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@frankthetank I have a feeling a UConn football independence would by far more similar to UMass than BYU.

On top of scheduling issues - which believe me I can't imagine ever getting another regional game as our peers would lock us out - we would have nothing to play for. No bowl, no league title, maybe a NY6 game. Nothing.

I think we need to get our Tier 3 rights back and stick it out in the AAC at a minimum.

P.S. I would think as a basketball only school we would try to get into the ACC over the Big East. Reduced pay out obviously but we are a natural fit and would give them 16 league memebers.
 

whaler11

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This is correct regarding BYU. The access bowl slot is truly irrelevant to them in the scheme of things, especially when the trade-off is guaranteed games against schools like Michigan State and UCLA in the regular season for more money. People advocating BYU to join the AAC or MWC are basically saying, "Give up your bigger TV contract and guaranteed regular season games against P5 games for a 1-in-60ish *chance* at an access bowl vs. a P5 team!" In reality, that's simply not a very good deal for BYU... especially where whaler11 has noted that the school has a broader purpose of spreading their religion. They'll take the guaranteed exposure of multiple nationally televised games in September and October against P5 schools than a non-guaranteed 1-in-60ish chance at an access bowl every single time. The access bowl is a red herring with respect to BYU (and it might be a red herring for UConn, too).

The other factor is that Utah is in the Pac-12. The fact that Utah is in a P5 conference means that BYU cannot, under any circumstances, be *structurally* in an inferior position. Being independent at least allows for BYU to argue that it's "special" compared to Utah (e.g. "We can pull off independence and an ESPN contract with our national fan base that Utah can't"), whereas BYU joining a G5 means 100% admitting that they are *structurally* inferior to Utah. BYU simply won't accept that type of status. It's a non-starter.

This would be similar to if Michigan State was in the Big Ten while Michigan was on the outside looking in. Michigan would rather die a fiery death as an independent than to ever join the MAC or any G5 league because Michigan believes that they are superior to MSU in every single way (academically, athletically, fan base size, etc.). BYU legitimately believes that they are the "Michigan" in this scenario while Utah is "Michigan State".

Frankly, the BYU situation is instructive for UConn. Up until now, I didn't think that UConn should ever consider independence for football. UConn had to do everything it could within the confines of a football conference in order to aim for a P5 spot. Now, though, I think P5 spots are going to be foreclosed for the next generation. The Big Ten and ACC are simply too fat and happy where it would take a Notre Dame/Texas-type addition (or at least an Oklahoma-sized addition) to generate any movement. What is the best option for UConn to maximize revenue in the face of this reality but still holding onto football at a high enough level to take advantage of conference realignment if things DO start moving again? Maybe it's football independence and putting basketball into the Big East.

Now, independence is certainly very risky. A BYU-type independence by choice is better than being in a G5 league, but a UMass-type independence that is not by choice is definitely NOT better than being in a G5 league. UMass would go for an AAC membership in a heartbeat, so UConn has to consider whether pastures are truly greener elsewhere. That's where UConn might be able to leverage its basketball programs (both men's and women's) in scheduling arrangements with P5 schools - this is an advantage that UMass doesn't have.

Anyway, that's just food for thought. I'm not quite sure that independence is really the right answer for UConn because of the risks mentioned before, but with the Big 12 passing up on expansion entirely and the rest of the P5 getting fat off of huge TV deals that last until well into the next decade, it's at least an option worth evaluating a bit more despite being a non-starter before yesterday.

If UConn could field a football roster full of 25 year olds and had decades of football history by which to schedule with they could make independence work.

Independence is worse than dropping football. It would lead to being embarrassed every week. Dropping football would be forgotten in time.
 
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If UConn could field a football roster full of 25 year olds and had decades of football history by which to schedule with they could make independence work.

Independence is worse than dropping football. It would lead tombeing embarrassed every week. Dropping football would be forgotten in time.

Well, yes, that's the risk. UConn obviously can't have a UMass-like independence. The judgment is whether it can create a BYU-like independence. I don't know if it's possible. Before yesterday, I would have thought it would be insane to have UConn be independent for football. Today, I think it's at least worth *evaluating*. The fact that the Big 12 couldn't figure out who to add is a bad sign since they have the lowest financial and academic barriers to entry out of any of the P5 leagues. As a result, P5 leagues truly aren't moving for several years at a minimum and it's only going to get harder to break into them as revenue continues to rise.
 
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Well, yes, that's the risk. UConn obviously can't have a UMass-like independence. The judgment is whether it can create a BYU-like independence. I don't know if it's possible. Before yesterday, I would have thought it would be insane to have UConn be independent for football. Today, I think it's at least worth *evaluating*. The fact that the Big 12 couldn't figure out who to add is a bad sign since they have the lowest financial and academic barriers to entry out of any of the P5 leagues. As a result, P5 leagues truly aren't moving for several years at a minimum and it's only going to get harder to break into them as revenue continues to rise.

The only way UConn could thrive independently in football would be through relationships with appealing P5 and G5 schools. We would need 6-7 scheduling locks a year. I'm not even sure how we would establish bowl alliances.
 

Husky25

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We would need 6-7 scheduling locks a year. I'm not even sure how we would establish bowl alliances.
Being a part of a conference would be a good way to guarantee that...oh...wait.
 
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Being a part of a conference would be a good way to guarantee that...oh...wait.

Duh. But we were discussing whether or not we could do better as an independent.
 

Husky25

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Duh. But we were discussing whether or not we could do better as an independent.

(I wonder how many times I can use this retort...This is #2.)

Look up, Coug. That's the joke sailing over your head.
 
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