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American and Mountain West should merge.

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Husky25 said:
Quantity does not improve quality. It's just more mediocrity in the form of programs (Whether they are Football or Basketball) that fans don't care about.

The more I think about it, While it may have started out this way, ESPN's current stance to "lock out" UConn from a P5 conference has less to do with any vendetta against the school per se, and more to do with having a monstrous and unforeseen ROI on their AAC contract. They don't want any AAC school to get selected. At this point, ESPN isn't screwing the AAC, The old Big East, NBC, and FOX did. NBC and Fox didn't foresee the value of the conference and underbid and the old Big East media contract had a matching provision, which actually calls into question why did that provision even exist? All but 4 football programs (at the time) were gone. Be that as it may, ESPN can legitimately hide behind a claim they are making sound business decisions.
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Here's the issue they will have with that: Their margins are higher on AAC broadcasts featuring the top tier AAC names, but that only continues so long as the games are compelling. The demand for those broadcasts is going to shrink at an accelerated pace if those programs continue to atrophy due to a lack of finances. Eventually ESPN will be paying the same small fee for content that nobody is watching.
 
Excalibur said:
Here's the issue they will have with that: Their margins are higher on AAC broadcasts featuring the top tier AAC names, but that only continues so long as the games are compelling. The demand for those broadcasts is going to shrink at an accelerated pace if those programs continue to atrophy due to a lack of finances. Eventually ESPN will be paying the same small fee for content that nobody is watching.
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"They" being who? ESPN, UConn, the AAC?

I didn't say it wasn't a paradox. I merely implied that mediocrity + mediocrity merely improves the degree to which a conference is mediocre.
 
Husky25 said:
"They" being who? ESPN, UConn, the AAC?

I didn't say it wasn't a paradox. I merely implied that mediocrity + mediocrity merely improves the degree to which a conference is mediocre.
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ESPN. I was replying to your (likely correct) description of ESPN's position in all of this being based on their ROI on the contract. I should have edited out other portions of the quote.
 
Excalibur said:
ESPN. I was replying to your (likely correct) description of ESPN's position in all of this being based on their ROI on the contract. I should have edited out other portions of the quote.
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Fair enough...I will now afford you two "likes." :)
 
whaler11 said:
Respectfully - I think what you and @UConnDan97 are both right.

BYU is pretty much locked out of the bowls and they aren't going to join the AAC for 1.8 million.

I think what you guys are missing is that BYU runs their football program as part of their greater goal to spread their religion.

They care more about their ability to get in front of potential converts than losing to Ohio State in a semifinal or to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.

You have to approach it from the viewpoint of religion, not football.
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This is correct regarding BYU. The access bowl slot is truly irrelevant to them in the scheme of things, especially when the trade-off is guaranteed games against schools like Michigan State and UCLA in the regular season for more money. People advocating BYU to join the AAC or MWC are basically saying, "Give up your bigger TV contract and guaranteed regular season games against P5 games for a 1-in-60ish *chance* at an access bowl vs. a P5 team!" In reality, that's simply not a very good deal for BYU... especially where whaler11 has noted that the school has a broader purpose of spreading their religion. They'll take the guaranteed exposure of multiple nationally televised games in September and October against P5 schools than a non-guaranteed 1-in-60ish chance at an access bowl every single time. The access bowl is a red herring with respect to BYU (and it might be a red herring for UConn, too).

The other factor is that Utah is in the Pac-12. The fact that Utah is in a P5 conference means that BYU cannot, under any circumstances, be *structurally* in an inferior position. Being independent at least allows for BYU to argue that it's "special" compared to Utah (e.g. "We can pull off independence and an ESPN contract with our national fan base that Utah can't"), whereas BYU joining a G5 means 100% admitting that they are *structurally* inferior to Utah. BYU simply won't accept that type of status. It's a non-starter.

This would be similar to if Michigan State was in the Big Ten while Michigan was on the outside looking in. Michigan would rather die a fiery death as an independent than to ever join the MAC or any G5 league because Michigan believes that they are superior to MSU in every single way (academically, athletically, fan base size, etc.). BYU legitimately believes that they are the "Michigan" in this scenario while Utah is "Michigan State".

Frankly, the BYU situation is instructive for UConn. Up until now, I didn't think that UConn should ever consider independence for football. UConn had to do everything it could within the confines of a football conference in order to aim for a P5 spot. Now, though, I think P5 spots are going to be foreclosed for the next generation. The Big Ten and ACC are simply too fat and happy where it would take a Notre Dame/Texas-type addition (or at least an Oklahoma-sized addition) to generate any movement. What is the best option for UConn to maximize revenue in the face of this reality but still holding onto football at a high enough level to take advantage of conference realignment if things DO start moving again? Maybe it's football independence and putting basketball into the Big East.

Now, independence is certainly very risky. A BYU-type independence by choice is better than being in a G5 league, but a UMass-type independence that is not by choice is definitely NOT better than being in a G5 league. UMass would go for an AAC membership in a heartbeat, so UConn has to consider whether pastures are truly greener elsewhere. That's where UConn might be able to leverage its basketball programs (both men's and women's) in scheduling arrangements with P5 schools - this is an advantage that UMass doesn't have.

Anyway, that's just food for thought. I'm not quite sure that independence is really the right answer for UConn because of the risks mentioned before, but with the Big 12 passing up on expansion entirely and the rest of the P5 getting fat off of huge TV deals that last until well into the next decade, it's at least an option worth evaluating a bit more despite being a non-starter before yesterday.
 
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@frankthetank I have a feeling a UConn football independence would by far more similar to UMass than BYU.

On top of scheduling issues - which believe me I can't imagine ever getting another regional game as our peers would lock us out - we would have nothing to play for. No bowl, no league title, maybe a NY6 game. Nothing.

I think we need to get our Tier 3 rights back and stick it out in the AAC at a minimum.

P.S. I would think as a basketball only school we would try to get into the ACC over the Big East. Reduced pay out obviously but we are a natural fit and would give them 16 league memebers.
 
frankthetank said:
This is correct regarding BYU. The access bowl slot is truly irrelevant to them in the scheme of things, especially when the trade-off is guaranteed games against schools like Michigan State and UCLA in the regular season for more money. People advocating BYU to join the AAC or MWC are basically saying, "Give up your bigger TV contract and guaranteed regular season games against P5 games for a 1-in-60ish *chance* at an access bowl vs. a P5 team!" In reality, that's simply not a very good deal for BYU... especially where whaler11 has noted that the school has a broader purpose of spreading their religion. They'll take the guaranteed exposure of multiple nationally televised games in September and October against P5 schools than a non-guaranteed 1-in-60ish chance at an access bowl every single time. The access bowl is a red herring with respect to BYU (and it might be a red herring for UConn, too).

The other factor is that Utah is in the Pac-12. The fact that Utah is in a P5 conference means that BYU cannot, under any circumstances, be *structurally* in an inferior position. Being independent at least allows for BYU to argue that it's "special" compared to Utah (e.g. "We can pull off independence and an ESPN contract with our national fan base that Utah can't"), whereas BYU joining a G5 means 100% admitting that they are *structurally* inferior to Utah. BYU simply won't accept that type of status. It's a non-starter.

This would be similar to if Michigan State was in the Big Ten while Michigan was on the outside looking in. Michigan would rather die a fiery death as an independent than to ever join the MAC or any G5 league because Michigan believes that they are superior to MSU in every single way (academically, athletically, fan base size, etc.). BYU legitimately believes that they are the "Michigan" in this scenario while Utah is "Michigan State".

Frankly, the BYU situation is instructive for UConn. Up until now, I didn't think that UConn should ever consider independence for football. UConn had to do everything it could within the confines of a football conference in order to aim for a P5 spot. Now, though, I think P5 spots are going to be foreclosed for the next generation. The Big Ten and ACC are simply too fat and happy where it would take a Notre Dame/Texas-type addition (or at least an Oklahoma-sized addition) to generate any movement. What is the best option for UConn to maximize revenue in the face of this reality but still holding onto football at a high enough level to take advantage of conference realignment if things DO start moving again? Maybe it's football independence and putting basketball into the Big East.

Now, independence is certainly very risky. A BYU-type independence by choice is better than being in a G5 league, but a UMass-type independence that is not by choice is definitely NOT better than being in a G5 league. UMass would go for an AAC membership in a heartbeat, so UConn has to consider whether pastures are truly greener elsewhere. That's where UConn might be able to leverage its basketball programs (both men's and women's) in scheduling arrangements with P5 schools - this is an advantage that UMass doesn't have.

Anyway, that's just food for thought. I'm not quite sure that independence is really the right answer for UConn because of the risks mentioned before, but with the Big 12 passing up on expansion entirely and the rest of the P5 getting fat off of huge TV deals that last until well into the next decade, it's at least an option worth evaluating a bit more despite being a non-starter before yesterday.
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If UConn could field a football roster full of 25 year olds and had decades of football history by which to schedule with they could make independence work.

Independence is worse than dropping football. It would lead to being embarrassed every week. Dropping football would be forgotten in time.
 
whaler11 said:
If UConn could field a football roster full of 25 year olds and had decades of football history by which to schedule with they could make independence work.

Independence is worse than dropping football. It would lead tombeing embarrassed every week. Dropping football would be forgotten in time.
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Well, yes, that's the risk. UConn obviously can't have a UMass-like independence. The judgment is whether it can create a BYU-like independence. I don't know if it's possible. Before yesterday, I would have thought it would be insane to have UConn be independent for football. Today, I think it's at least worth *evaluating*. The fact that the Big 12 couldn't figure out who to add is a bad sign since they have the lowest financial and academic barriers to entry out of any of the P5 leagues. As a result, P5 leagues truly aren't moving for several years at a minimum and it's only going to get harder to break into them as revenue continues to rise.
 
frankthetank said:
Well, yes, that's the risk. UConn obviously can't have a UMass-like independence. The judgment is whether it can create a BYU-like independence. I don't know if it's possible. Before yesterday, I would have thought it would be insane to have UConn be independent for football. Today, I think it's at least worth *evaluating*. The fact that the Big 12 couldn't figure out who to add is a bad sign since they have the lowest financial and academic barriers to entry out of any of the P5 leagues. As a result, P5 leagues truly aren't moving for several years at a minimum and it's only going to get harder to break into them as revenue continues to rise.
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The only way UConn could thrive independently in football would be through relationships with appealing P5 and G5 schools. We would need 6-7 scheduling locks a year. I'm not even sure how we would establish bowl alliances.
 
ZooCougar said:
We would need 6-7 scheduling locks a year. I'm not even sure how we would establish bowl alliances.
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Being a part of a conference would be a good way to guarantee that...oh...wait.
 
Husky25 said:
Being a part of a conference would be a good way to guarantee that...oh...wait.
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Duh. But we were discussing whether or not we could do better as an independent.
 
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ZooCougar said:
Duh. But we were discussing whether or not we could do better as an independent.
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(I wonder how many times I can use this retort...This is #2.)

Look up, Coug. That's the joke sailing over your head.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
We need more games against Tulane and Tulsa.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, Mr. Muntz (I know you will), but I do not recall UConn ever playing Tulsa in football.
 
ZooCougar said:
Maybe it's just not funny.
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No, it was funny. Trust me. A lot of people told me it is funny. Smart people. Funny people. The funniest.
 
ZooCougar said:
The only way UConn could thrive independently in football would be through relationships with appealing P5 and G5 schools. We would need 6-7 scheduling locks a year. I'm not even sure how we would establish bowl alliances.
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Hypothetically, you build it out this way:

(1) Have permanent deals with independents BYU, UMass and Army as a base. That gives you 3 games.

(2) Play 1 local FCS opponent per year at home.

(3) Maintain relationships with the regional AAC schools Temple and Navy. That's 2 more games.

(4) Build upon what seems to be thawing relationships with BC and Syracuse (at least regarding scheduling). That's another 2 games.

That gives you a scheduling base of 8 games to work with on an annual basis. Add in 2 more P5 opponents plus 2 AAC/MWC level opponents that vary year-to-year. I'd leave it to others here to judge whether that's a better schedule than simply having an AAC conference schedule plus non-conference P5 games, but this is how I'd personally evaluate a potential independent schedule.
 
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frankthetank said:
Hypothetically, you build it out this way:

(1) Have permanent deals with independents BYU, UMass and Army as a base. That gives you 3 games.

(2) Play 1 local FCS opponent per year at home.

(3) Maintain relationships with the regional AAC schools Temple and Navy. That's 2 more games.

(4) Build upon what seems to be thawing relationships with BC and Syracuse (at least regarding scheduling). That's another 2 games.

That gives you a scheduling base of 8 games to work with on an annual basis. Add in 2 more P5 opponents plus 2 AAC/MWC level opponents that vary year-to-year. I'd leave it to others here to judge whether that's a better schedule than simply having an AAC conference schedule plus non-conference P5 games, but this is how I'd personally evaluate a potential independent schedule.
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Wouldn't the value of the AAC plummet the very second UConn goes through the door. Do you think former Conference-mates would really care to help the program that just tanked their conference with their scheduling issues? I doubt it. More likely, UConn/BC Cold wars commence. Plus UMass quite probably all of a sudden has a conference home. They will no longer be independent.

The problem with most of these realignment fantasy posts is that people rarely consider what's in it for the other schools. Only if should be agreeable to UConn.
 
Husky25 said:
Wouldn't the value of the AAC plummet the very second UConn goes through the door. Do you think former Conference-mates would really care to help the program that just tanked their conference with their scheduling issues? I doubt it. More likely, UConn/BC Cold wars commence. Plus UMass quite probably all of a sudden has a conference home. They will no longer be independent.

The problem with most of these realignment fantasy posts is that people rarely consider what's in it for the other schools. Only if should be agreeable to UConn.
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Oh sure - it all has to be mutually beneficial. That being said, BYU was able to get scheduling arrangements in place with Boise State and Utah State despite leaving the MWC, so it's not completely unprecedented for a defector school to get games back on the schedule with their old league.

It's understood that independence is a difficult road. The decision may very well be that it's not really better than staying in the AAC. However, the fact that UConn's basketball programs may be able to find a home in the Big East gives it a bit more breathing room to at least consider the independence option compared to most (if not all) other G5 schools.
 
For all of those complaining about the caliber of AAC MBB, can we at least produce one dominant season in the league. Yes, I know that we won the conference tournament last year - thank you Jalen Adams - but our regular season records of 12-6, 10-8 & 11-7 are underwhelming.
 
None of these scenarios is going to help the women's program. The BE is no better than the A10 in women's hoops. If you doubt that, the BE sent 3 teams to the NCAAs last year. Two of them, Seton Hall, and St. John's, were blown out last year by Duquesne, the number 3 team in the A10 (19 and 21 point margins). UConn played Duquesne last year, and you know the result (although Duquesne was the only team to hold a lead on UConn during the entire tournament). What this means is that teams the caliber of Duquesne would be your main competition in the BE. That might even be worse than being in the AAC, where at least S. Florida is a fairly strong program.
 
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Aresco said today on the Gresh and Joe D debacle that there is no expansion in the near horizon for the AAC. He said the job now is to become P6. TV contract will be better and they will be looking at internet options.

He said the silver lining is that most of the schools targeted were AAC schools and that shows the conference in a better light. Attendance is up conference wide and TV viewership is up as well. Even more importantly, they are on the cusp of championship game sponsors(bet it isn't Fed Ex) and tournament championship sponsors. When sponsors want to sponsor your events, TV listens. Admitted the conference was in no shape to negotiate the dollars last time but the exposure is great.
 
hardcorehusky said:
Aresco said today on the Gresh and Joe D debacle that there is no expansion in the near horizon for the AAC. He said the job now is to become P6. TV contract will be better and they will be looking at internet options.

He said the silver lining is that most of the schools targeted were AAC schools and that shows the conference in a better light. Attendance is up conference wide and TV viewership is up as well. Even more importantly, they are on the cusp of championship game sponsors(bet it isn't Fed Ex) and tournament championship sponsors. When sponsors want to sponsor your events, TV listens. Admitted the conference was in no shape to negotiate the dollars last time but the exposure is great.
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What is the real ratings gap between the average AAC game and all but the top matchups?
 
Marty Jackson said:
I think a solid P6 league does move the needle.
It's all about match ups. If the AAC can produce a couple top 25 match ups and even get a team in the top 10 why shouldn't it get paid as such?
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The problem is that even successful G5 schools lack the TV markets / fanbases / and historic rivalries of the average P5.

A game with #11 Houston is not worth the same to a network as a game with #11 Michigan (or even a #31 Michigan for that matter).

Millions of people watch Notre Dame, even when they are lousy. ND gets paid for the TV sets. This isn't a meritocracy.

We're in the best G5 league right now, hands down. That's something. But there's no way to make it a P6 because you can't create a league that comes close to a P5 in terms of fans/viewers. I don't care how good Houston is; more people will always watch Texas. Ditto Cincy and Ohio State. Same for USF/UCF vs Florida and Florida State.

An island of successful misfit toys is still an island of misfit toys.

Basically, there is no G5 bucket that we could pool our media rights into and wind up with more than if we sold them ourselves on a standalone basis.

We need to focus on getting our rights back, not trying to create a slightly different, slightly improved G5 bucket to bleed $$$ into.
 
frankthetank said:
Hypothetically, you build it out this way:

(1) Have permanent deals with independents BYU, UMass and Army as a base. That gives you 3 games.

(2) Play 1 local FCS opponent per year at home.

(3) Maintain relationships with the regional AAC schools Temple and Navy. That's 2 more games.

(4) Build upon what seems to be thawing relationships with BC and Syracuse (at least regarding scheduling). That's another 2 games.

That gives you a scheduling base of 8 games to work with on an annual basis. Add in 2 more P5 opponents plus 2 AAC/MWC level opponents that vary year-to-year. I'd leave it to others here to judge whether that's a better schedule than simply having an AAC conference schedule plus non-conference P5 games, but this is how I'd personally evaluate a potential independent schedule.
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So you propose a schedule of:

Home:
UMass
Maine
BC
Temple
San Jose St.
Maryland (what incentive any P5 would have to play here, I have no idea)

Road:
BYU
Syracuse
Army
Navy
UNLV
Wake Forest

Holy Yankee Conference home schedule, Batman!

That schedule is no better than the worst schedule the AAC will ever hand us and it will *only* cost us 10M and 20K fans to achieve it!
 
It's truly very simple.

We play all sports as an AAC member and hope that the next TV deal payout increases and we can retain out Tier 3 rights.

Eventually the subsidies will decrease if revenue doesn't increase and then I think you'll see that comes at the expense of non revenue sports first and then eventually the football staff.

It sucks, but I think we can still remain competitive in the AAC for football and nationally competitive for hoops...that is unless the P5/Big East forms their own NCAAT.
 
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