"Always foul up three!"
- Thread starter Fishy
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I've always thought intentionally fouling up 3 was a bad idea. JC never did it.
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Just because it fails one time doesn't make it a bad strategy. You have to consider the probabilities.
Which is more likely?
1) A guy hits a contested 3 (say 15% -- 2 or 3 times harder than making a 3 normally)
2) A guy makes one free throw (75%), misses the second (95%), his team gets the offensive rebound (30%), and makes a basket (or gets fouled and hits two free throws) (50%)
#1 has a 15% chance
#2 has a ~10% chance
If those percentages are correct, it means fouling is the right strategy every time, even though it will fail some of the time.
Which is more likely?
1) A guy hits a contested 3 (say 15% -- 2 or 3 times harder than making a 3 normally)
2) A guy makes one free throw (75%), misses the second (95%), his team gets the offensive rebound (30%), and makes a basket (or gets fouled and hits two free throws) (50%)
#1 has a 15% chance
#2 has a ~10% chance
If those percentages are correct, it means fouling is the right strategy every time, even though it will fail some of the time.
RoderickSpode
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You also have to consider, however, that generally the worst case scenario in #1 is overtime, while #2 stops the clock, gives your opponent the ball directly in front of the basket, and allows any number of crazy situations to play out, including you losing in regulation.
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You cant live and die by any rule when up by three in the closing seconds. Too many dynamics involved getting the inlet pass to your own guy and the seconds left on the clock. It makes sense on paper (I think) but how many flipping turnovers can occur on an inlet pass when under pressure? The defense, after making free throws, has a great chance to set up for the inlet.
JC liked to let the game unfold and had confidence in his D to lock down from out of the perimeter. He would never GIVE anyone points. I'd say it worked out okay for him.
JC liked to let the game unfold and had confidence in his D to lock down from out of the perimeter. He would never GIVE anyone points. I'd say it worked out okay for him.
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One other possibility is that you foul the three point shooter. This seems to happen a lot.
The strategy, in my mind, definitely depends on how much time is remaining. If there is 15 seconds, I think it's a bad idea, because then you open yourself up to the possibility of losing in regulation if you miss free throws. But with five seconds left, the other team needs a crazy sequence of events to unfold, and even then, overtime is probably worst case scenario.
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