- Joined
- Mar 26, 2021
- Messages
- 197
- Reaction Score
- 1,833
We're on the eve of perhaps the most watched womens basketball game in the history of the NCAA. Here's a homer's take on trying to be objective about tomorrow night's contest. Please weigh in with your insights and comments.
First impressions on paper: South Carolina is utterly dominant physically and athletically, plus they have the coach of the year in Dawn Staley. Factors to consider going into the game:
Caitlin Clark named Naismith POY. Extra motivation for USC?
Perhaps, but I think that will be forgotten pretty early in the game. As Coach Staley has stated, they're more motivated by winning the championship.
Also, with Caitlin's acknowledgement of the crowd, she is perceived by some as a showboat. In actuality, she's only displayed this in venues where Iowa's fan base has shown up in force. It's really more of a 'thank-you' to the crowd for supporting the team in person.
Tight or loose? I think this actually favors Iowa. Iowa's played 4 consecutive games as a favorite, and it definitely puts more pressure on the higher seeded team. I have so much respect for USC in having carried the burden through every game this year. Tomorrow night, the pressure will be off Iowa for the first time in the tournament.
Tournament games thus far: Not much trouble for the Gamecocks; a lot of trouble (at least early on) for Iowa. Iowa struggles with physical, athletic teams. South Carolina will be their biggest challenge of the year, but Georgia, Colorado, and Louisville have at least prepped them for this.
I'm guessing South Carolina can neutralize Monika Czinano inside pretty easily. The bigger question is, can they shut down Iowa's other starters not named Caitlin Clark. If they can this game won't be close, even if Caitlin goes off for 40. If Clark has a bad night shooting this could be a rout.
Intangibles: every team talks about 'togetherness' and 'family'. With the Hawkeyes, it truly is real. Their starting lineup has been together for 90 consecutive games. They know they're outmanned, but no one has each other's backs more than this squad. It's not enough to win a game, but with all else being equal it could be an edge.
PREDICTIONS:
Iowa victory (12%). A Villanova/Georgetown repeat. Iowa stays within 10 rebounds of South Carolina, shoots >40% from 3, and has no more than 14 turnovers. Margin of victory: single digits.
South Carolina rout (25%). Gamecocks flaunt their physical advantage, shut down Caitlin, and demoralize the remainder of the Iowa team. Margin of victory: 25+ points.
South Carolina wins, but competitive (63%). USC's physical dominance results in them gradually building a lead of 15 points. The Gamecocks are famous for gradually wearing down their opponents, but guess what, it's also difficult to play well for 40 minutes. Iowa makes a run in the 4th quarter to cut the deficit to 7 with 4 minutes remaining, and they have the ball. However, from that point on unforced turnovers and missed 3's allow USC to rebuild their lead on into the game's end. Final: South Carolina 78, Iowa 66.
Still hoping for that miracle, but would be satisfied with an injury-free, well-officiated contest.
First impressions on paper: South Carolina is utterly dominant physically and athletically, plus they have the coach of the year in Dawn Staley. Factors to consider going into the game:
Caitlin Clark named Naismith POY. Extra motivation for USC?
Perhaps, but I think that will be forgotten pretty early in the game. As Coach Staley has stated, they're more motivated by winning the championship.
Also, with Caitlin's acknowledgement of the crowd, she is perceived by some as a showboat. In actuality, she's only displayed this in venues where Iowa's fan base has shown up in force. It's really more of a 'thank-you' to the crowd for supporting the team in person.
Tight or loose? I think this actually favors Iowa. Iowa's played 4 consecutive games as a favorite, and it definitely puts more pressure on the higher seeded team. I have so much respect for USC in having carried the burden through every game this year. Tomorrow night, the pressure will be off Iowa for the first time in the tournament.
Tournament games thus far: Not much trouble for the Gamecocks; a lot of trouble (at least early on) for Iowa. Iowa struggles with physical, athletic teams. South Carolina will be their biggest challenge of the year, but Georgia, Colorado, and Louisville have at least prepped them for this.
I'm guessing South Carolina can neutralize Monika Czinano inside pretty easily. The bigger question is, can they shut down Iowa's other starters not named Caitlin Clark. If they can this game won't be close, even if Caitlin goes off for 40. If Clark has a bad night shooting this could be a rout.
Intangibles: every team talks about 'togetherness' and 'family'. With the Hawkeyes, it truly is real. Their starting lineup has been together for 90 consecutive games. They know they're outmanned, but no one has each other's backs more than this squad. It's not enough to win a game, but with all else being equal it could be an edge.
PREDICTIONS:
Iowa victory (12%). A Villanova/Georgetown repeat. Iowa stays within 10 rebounds of South Carolina, shoots >40% from 3, and has no more than 14 turnovers. Margin of victory: single digits.
South Carolina rout (25%). Gamecocks flaunt their physical advantage, shut down Caitlin, and demoralize the remainder of the Iowa team. Margin of victory: 25+ points.
South Carolina wins, but competitive (63%). USC's physical dominance results in them gradually building a lead of 15 points. The Gamecocks are famous for gradually wearing down their opponents, but guess what, it's also difficult to play well for 40 minutes. Iowa makes a run in the 4th quarter to cut the deficit to 7 with 4 minutes remaining, and they have the ball. However, from that point on unforced turnovers and missed 3's allow USC to rebuild their lead on into the game's end. Final: South Carolina 78, Iowa 66.
Still hoping for that miracle, but would be satisfied with an injury-free, well-officiated contest.
Last edited: