I think it's a pretty solid summary. I don't see much homer-ism in your post, I think it's a detailed and thoughtful analysis. I'm also glad you pointed out about Clark revving up the crowd. I've always felt the same that it's more a tribute to the crowd than showboating.
I do think SC is right there with Iowa in terms of intangibles/togetherness. They're an extremely unselfish group of players, led by 3 seniors who've started for 4 years together (130+ games), and a fourth who is a 3 year starter (100+ games). Amihere/Cardoso/Saxton/Fletcher/Johnson all have sacrificed individually to prioritize team success. Almost any of them would play 30+ minutes a night on virtually any top 25 program in the country, but they've all accepted reduced roles for the betterment of the team. I think these intangibles are a draw as both teams really seem like they're playing for each other, but if I had to pick, I'd say it's more of an edge for SC than it is for Iowa. Also due to this, I think both teams are likely to come out loose from the get go. Iowa has nothing to lose and should come out guns blazing. South Carolina has more to lose, but they're an extremely veteran group of players who've been on this stage twice before and have won it all. I don't think anyone in their rotation will be rattled.
In a pro Iowa light, I think it's more likely Iowa wins this game than SC blowing out Iowa by 25+. SC isn't a squad that will blow out opposing teams, they're a grind it out team that wears you down and usually pull away in the 3rd quarter of big games. In every game vs. a top 4 seed this year, the margin was single digits in the 3rd quarter. Against Sweet 16 teams, they're winning by 13.7 per game. If you consider the OT Stanford game a tie in regulation and dismiss the first Maryland battle when they were missing Diamond Miller, the margin drops to 11.6/game. They aren't routing good teams, so I don't expect Iowa to get blown out.
For SC to win they just need to make Clark more of a shooter than a passer. Clark's assist numbers are low in almost all of their losses, which usually means teammates aren't stepping up to make shots or plays and the burden falls on Clark, I don't think she can get it done on her own. If they make it difficult for Clark to find her teammates in scoring positions, SC has it in the bag.
For Iowa to win, a lot has to go right. First and foremost, their shooters have to hit shots. SC is a great defensive team, but Iowa's shooters will get some solid looks and they need to convert because SC is going to dominate the glass. I don't see any way that doesn't happen. 2nd, Iowa needs an off night from Zia Cooke. SC is unbeatable if Zia is shooting for a solid percentage. When her shot is off though and she takes 15+ shots, SC's offense loses rhythm and it will create opportunity for Iowa to keep pace. I also think it's crucial that Iowa gets at least some production offensively from Czinano. She has not played well going up against strong physical bigs this year (Edwards, Cochran, and Holmes) and they'll need her to convert some looks inside. I think it's going to be a tough tough game for Iowa to win, but if they're able to keep it close, I think the odds tip in their favor down the stretch due to having a player like Clark who is so lethal.
Realistically, I think SC is just too big and physical and wears Iowa down and wins by 10-15 points. I can't remember the last time a game had this much excitement behind it. Will hopefully be a great game.
