All hype, or does Iowa even have a chance?

[Bjbod]

We're on the eve of perhaps the most watched womens basketball game in the history of the NCAA. Here's a homer's take on trying to be objective about tomorrow night's contest. Please weigh in with your insights and comments.

First impressions on paper: South Carolina is utterly dominant physically and athletically, plus they have the coach of the year in Dawn Staley. Factors to consider going into the game:

Caitlin Clark named Naismith POY. Extra motivation for USC?
Perhaps, but I think that will be forgotten pretty early in the game. As Coach Staley has stated, they're more motivated by winning the championship.
Also, with Caitlin's acknowledgement of the crowd, she is perceived by some as a showboat. In actuality, she's only displayed this in venues where Iowa's fan base has shown up in force. It's really more of a 'thank-you' to the crowd for supporting the team in person.

Tight or loose? I think this actually favors Iowa. Iowa's played 4 consecutive games as a favorite, and it definitely puts more pressure on the higher seeded team. I have so much respect for USC in having carried the burden through every game this year. Tomorrow night, the pressure will be off Iowa for the first time in the tournament.

Tournament games thus far: Not much trouble for the Gamecocks; a lot of trouble (at least early on) for Iowa. Iowa struggles with physical, athletic teams. South Carolina will be their biggest challenge of the year, but Georgia, Colorado, and Louisville have at least prepped them for this.

I'm guessing South Carolina can neutralize Monika Czinano inside pretty easily. The bigger question is, can they shut down Iowa's other starters not named Caitlin Clark. If they can this game won't be close, even if Caitlin goes off for 40. If Clark has a bad night shooting this could be a rout.

Intangibles: every team talks about 'togetherness' and 'family'. With the Hawkeyes, it truly is real. Their starting lineup has been together for 90 consecutive games. They know they're outmanned, but no one has each other's backs more than this squad. It's not enough to win a game, but with all else being equal it could be an edge.

PREDICTIONS:

Iowa victory (12%). A Villanova/Georgetown repeat. Iowa stays within 10 rebounds of South Carolina, shoots >40% from 3, and has no more than 14 turnovers. Margin of victory: single digits.

South Carolina rout (25%). Gamecocks flaunt their physical advantage, shut down Caitlin, and demoralize the remainder of the Iowa team. Margin of victory: 25+ points.

South Carolina wins, but competitive (63%). USC's physical dominance results in them gradually building a lead of 15 points. The Gamecocks are famous for gradually wearing down their opponents, but guess what, it's also difficult to play well for 40 minutes. Iowa makes a run in the 4th quarter to cut the deficit to 7 with 4 minutes remaining, and they have the ball. However, from that point on unforced turnovers and missed 3's allow USC to rebuild their lead on into the game's end. Final: South Carolina 78, Iowa 66.

Still hoping for that miracle, but would be satisfied with an injury-free, well-officiated contest.

 

[SCGamecock]

Of course Iowa has a chance. Any team that makes it to the Final Four has a chance, no matter how big or small. You've beaten some very good teams along the way. So have we.

3 of SC's 5 starters (Aliyah, Zia, and Brea) have started over 100 games together for SC, and the fourth starter (Victaria) has started the past two seasons with the other three. So both of these teams know one another well and are experienced as far as playing together.

I'm expecting a competitive game tomorrow. You can never guarantee a win over a team that shoots the ball the way Iowa does.

 

[bballnut90]

We're on the eve of perhaps the most watched womens basketball game in the history of the NCAA. Here's a homer's take on trying to be objective about tomorrow night's contest. Please weigh in with your insights and comments.

First impressions on paper: South Carolina is utterly dominant physically and athletically, plus they have the coach of the year in Dawn Staley. Factors to consider going into the game:

Caitlin Clark named Naismith POY. Extra motivation for USC?
Perhaps, but I think that will be forgotten pretty early in the game. As Coach Staley has stated, they're more motivated by winning the championship.
Also, with Caitlin's acknowledgement of the crowd, she is perceived by some as a showboat. In actuality, she's only displayed this in venues where Iowa's fan base has shown up in force. It's really more of a 'thank-you' to the crowd for supporting the team in person.

Tight or loose? I think this actually favors Iowa. Iowa's played 4 consecutive games as a favorite, and it definitely puts more pressure on the higher seeded team. I have so much respect for USC in having carried the burden through every game this year. Tomorrow night, the pressure will be off Iowa for the first time in the tournament.

Tournament games thus far: Not much trouble for the Gamecocks; a lot of trouble (at least early on) for Iowa. Iowa struggles with physical, athletic teams. South Carolina will be their biggest challenge of the year, but Georgia, Colorado, and Louisville have at least prepped them for this.

I'm guessing South Carolina can neutralize Monika Czinano inside pretty easily. The bigger question is, can they shut down Iowa's other starters not named Caitlin Clark. If they can this game won't be close, even if Caitlin goes off for 40. If Clark has a bad night shooting this could be a rout.

Intangibles: every team talks about 'togetherness' and 'family'. With the Hawkeyes, it truly is real. Their starting lineup has been together for 90 consecutive games. They know they're outmanned, but no one has each other's backs more than this squad. It's not enough to win a game, but with all else being equal it could be an edge.

PREDICTIONS:

Iowa victory (12%). A Villanova/Georgetown repeat. Iowa stays within 10 rebounds of South Carolina, shoots >40% from 3, and has no more than 14 turnovers. Margin of victory: single digits.

South Carolina rout (25%). Gamecocks flaunt their physical advantage, shut down Caitlin, and demoralize the remainder of the Iowa team. Margin of victory: 25+ points.

South Carolina wins, but competitive (63%). USC's physical dominance results in them gradually building a lead of 15 points. The Gamecocks are famous for gradually wearing down their opponents, but guess what, it's also difficult to play well for 40 minutes. Iowa makes a run in the 4th quarter to cut the deficit to 7 with 4 minutes remaining, and they have the ball. However, from that point on unforced turnovers and missed 3's allow USC to rebuild their lead on into the game's end. Final: South Carolina 78, Iowa 66.

Still hoping for that miracle, but would be satisfied with an injury-free, well-officiated contest.

I think it's a pretty solid summary. I don't see much homer-ism in your post, I think it's a detailed and thoughtful analysis. I'm also glad you pointed out about Clark revving up the crowd. I've always felt the same that it's more a tribute to the crowd than showboating.

I do think SC is right there with Iowa in terms of intangibles/togetherness. They're an extremely unselfish group of players, led by 3 seniors who've started for 4 years together (130+ games), and a fourth who is a 3 year starter (100+ games). Amihere/Cardoso/Saxton/Fletcher/Johnson all have sacrificed individually to prioritize team success. Almost any of them would play 30+ minutes a night on virtually any top 25 program in the country, but they've all accepted reduced roles for the betterment of the team. I think these intangibles are a draw as both teams really seem like they're playing for each other, but if I had to pick, I'd say it's more of an edge for SC than it is for Iowa. Also due to this, I think both teams are likely to come out loose from the get go. Iowa has nothing to lose and should come out guns blazing. South Carolina has more to lose, but they're an extremely veteran group of players who've been on this stage twice before and have won it all. I don't think anyone in their rotation will be rattled.

In a pro Iowa light, I think it's more likely Iowa wins this game than SC blowing out Iowa by 25+. SC isn't a squad that will blow out opposing teams, they're a grind it out team that wears you down and usually pull away in the 3rd quarter of big games. In every game vs. a top 4 seed this year, the margin was single digits in the 3rd quarter. Against Sweet 16 teams, they're winning by 13.7 per game. If you consider the OT Stanford game a tie in regulation and dismiss the first Maryland battle when they were missing Diamond Miller, the margin drops to 11.6/game. They aren't routing good teams, so I don't expect Iowa to get blown out.

For SC to win they just need to make Clark more of a shooter than a passer. Clark's assist numbers are low in almost all of their losses, which usually means teammates aren't stepping up to make shots or plays and the burden falls on Clark, I don't think she can get it done on her own. If they make it difficult for Clark to find her teammates in scoring positions, SC has it in the bag.

For Iowa to win, a lot has to go right. First and foremost, their shooters have to hit shots. SC is a great defensive team, but Iowa's shooters will get some solid looks and they need to convert because SC is going to dominate the glass. I don't see any way that doesn't happen. 2nd, Iowa needs an off night from Zia Cooke. SC is unbeatable if Zia is shooting for a solid percentage. When her shot is off though and she takes 15+ shots, SC's offense loses rhythm and it will create opportunity for Iowa to keep pace. I also think it's crucial that Iowa gets at least some production offensively from Czinano. She has not played well going up against strong physical bigs this year (Edwards, Cochran, and Holmes) and they'll need her to convert some looks inside. I think it's going to be a tough tough game for Iowa to win, but if they're able to keep it close, I think the odds tip in their favor down the stretch due to having a player like Clark who is so lethal.

Realistically, I think SC is just too big and physical and wears Iowa down and wins by 10-15 points. I can't remember the last time a game had this much excitement behind it. Will hopefully be a great game.

 

[bballtalk]

IMO for Iowa to have a chance late, it has to be a Clark vs Boston game. Meaning that if anyone else for SC is hot, I don’t think Iowa has a chance. Big rebounding and defensive advantage for SC. For Iowa to win, they need a huge Clark game and for their threes to fall. Boston will get her points, but if Cooke and the rest are shooting poorly it gives Iowa a chance.

Another big thing is Foul trouble. South Carolina rarely ever is in foul trouble, and Iowa has to stay out of it. If Clark or Czinano are in foul trouble, Iowa probably doesn’t have a chance. But idk, I really hope for two very close games. I want LSU to win, but LSU doesn’t have a chance against South Carolina. Where as I think VT matches up with SC the best. Kitley battling Boston, and Amoore hitting 3s would be the toughest battle for SC.

But imagine if Clark scores 40 or even 50 and lead Iowa to a win. That would be the biggest story in sports tomorrow. Over baseball, NBA, etc. I think we are entering a new time in Women’s Basketball where our Stars are starting to shine really big. I don’t care who wins it, but if we get 3 very competitive games this weekend, the Sport absolutely wins.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

We're on the eve of perhaps the most watched womens basketball game in the history of the NCAA. Here's a homer's take on trying to be objective about tomorrow night's contest. Please weigh in with your insights and comments.

First impressions on paper: South Carolina is utterly dominant physically and athletically, plus they have the coach of the year in Dawn Staley. Factors to consider going into the game:

Caitlin Clark named Naismith POY. Extra motivation for USC?
Perhaps, but I think that will be forgotten pretty early in the game. As Coach Staley has stated, they're more motivated by winning the championship.
Also, with Caitlin's acknowledgement of the crowd, she is perceived by some as a showboat. In actuality, she's only displayed this in venues where Iowa's fan base has shown up in force. It's really more of a 'thank-you' to the crowd for supporting the team in person.

Tight or loose? I think this actually favors Iowa. Iowa's played 4 consecutive games as a favorite, and it definitely puts more pressure on the higher seeded team. I have so much respect for USC in having carried the burden through every game this year. Tomorrow night, the pressure will be off Iowa for the first time in the tournament.

Tournament games thus far: Not much trouble for the Gamecocks; a lot of trouble (at least early on) for Iowa. Iowa struggles with physical, athletic teams. South Carolina will be their biggest challenge of the year, but Georgia, Colorado, and Louisville have at least prepped them for this.

I'm guessing South Carolina can neutralize Monika Czinano inside pretty easily. The bigger question is, can they shut down Iowa's other starters not named Caitlin Clark. If they can this game won't be close, even if Caitlin goes off for 40. If Clark has a bad night shooting this could be a rout.

Intangibles: every team talks about 'togetherness' and 'family'. With the Hawkeyes, it truly is real. Their starting lineup has been together for 90 consecutive games. They know they're outmanned, but no one has each other's backs more than this squad. It's not enough to win a game, but with all else being equal it could be an edge.

PREDICTIONS:

Iowa victory (12%). A Villanova/Georgetown repeat. Iowa stays within 10 rebounds of South Carolina, shoots >40% from 3, and has no more than 14 turnovers. Margin of victory: single digits.

South Carolina rout (25%). Gamecocks flaunt their physical advantage, shut down Caitlin, and demoralize the remainder of the Iowa team. Margin of victory: 25+ points.

South Carolina wins, but competitive (63%). USC's physical dominance results in them gradually building a lead of 15 points. The Gamecocks are famous for gradually wearing down their opponents, but guess what, it's also difficult to play well for 40 minutes. Iowa makes a run in the 4th quarter to cut the deficit to 7 with 4 minutes remaining, and they have the ball. However, from that point on unforced turnovers and missed 3's allow USC to rebuild their lead on into the game's end. Final: South Carolina 78, Iowa 66.

Still hoping for that miracle, but would be satisfied with an injury-free, well-officiated contest.

I don't disagree with anything you've stated in your analysis. One thing I haven't seen mentioned is Final Four experience. With SC playing in their 3rd straight Final Four, I think, is an important consideration.

 

[donalddoowop]

UConn's defense is not as stingy as South Carolina's defense and UConn did a good job of keeping Clark in check. She scored over 20 points but, was bothered by Muhl guarding her. Edwards almost dominated Czinano. If that South Carolina front court defense does not keep Czinano in check, it would be a big surprise to me.

 

[JellyBean]

Great break down and like others have said, Iowa has a chance. There will be so many variables in that game later today. It will come down to which team plays to their identity and which one doesn't.

 

[visitingcock]

I have never been this nervous about a wbb game before. All other big games, we had a lot to win and not much to lose. With the streak and possibility of a repeat on the line, I’m feeling the pressure. I hope the team (particularly our guards) aren’t feeling like me.

But what a great opportunity for women’s basketball this is. Rebels vs Evil Empire, David vs Goliath. Two players of the year. Top (active) guard vs. top big(s). Top offense vs top defense. SEC bs Big 10 bragging rights in all sports. Two of the three most rabid fanbases. Two of the top three most-watched teams on television this year. Chance at record viewership at a time wbb is seeking a separate tv contract for the tournament. All the stars are aligned for record tv viewership except it being a Friday night semifinal on ESPN rather than a Sunday finals match on ABC.

Nearly perfect opportunity for wbb to capitalize on.

I appeal to UConn and Tennessee fans to watch the game tonight or AT LEAST tune a TV set that you aren’t watching on to tonight’s game -even the VaTech LSU game.

DO IT FOR YHE LOVE OF THE GAME! Please!

 

[jdote33]

I have never been this nervous about a wbb game before. All other big games, we had a lot to win and not much to lose. With the streak and possibility of a repeat on the line, I’m feeling the pressure. I hope the team (particularly our guards) aren’t feeling like me.

But what a great opportunity for women’s basketball this is. Rebels vs Evil Empire, David vs Goliath. Two players of the year. Top (active) guard vs. top big(s). Top offense vs top defense. SEC bs Big 10 bragging rights in all sports. Two of the three most rabid fanbases. Two of the top three most-watched teams on television this year. Chance at record viewership at a time wbb is seeking a separate tv contract for the tournament. All the stars are aligned for record tv viewership except it being a Friday night semifinal on ESPN rather than a Sunday finals match on ABC.

Nearly perfect opportunity for wbb to capitalize on.

I appeal to UConn and Tennessee fans to watch the game tonight or AT LEAST tune a TV set that you aren’t watching on to tonight’s game -even the VaTech LSU game.

DO IT FOR YHE LOVE OF THE GAME! Please!

Love it. Both games should be interesting. But Iowa vs SC is really a treat. I feel like in most sports the great defensive team always has the upper hand vs the great offensive team. My only slight quip is that it's on Friday night.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

We're on the eve of perhaps the most watched womens basketball game in the history of the NCAA. Here's a homer's take on trying to be objective about tomorrow night's contest. Please weigh in with your insights and comments.

First impressions on paper: South Carolina is utterly dominant physically and athletically, plus they have the coach of the year in Dawn Staley. Factors to consider going into the game:

Caitlin Clark named Naismith POY. Extra motivation for USC?
Perhaps, but I think that will be forgotten pretty early in the game. As Coach Staley has stated, they're more motivated by winning the championship.
Also, with Caitlin's acknowledgement of the crowd, she is perceived by some as a showboat. In actuality, she's only displayed this in venues where Iowa's fan base has shown up in force. It's really more of a 'thank-you' to the crowd for supporting the team in person.

Tight or loose? I think this actually favors Iowa. Iowa's played 4 consecutive games as a favorite, and it definitely puts more pressure on the higher seeded team. I have so much respect for USC in having carried the burden through every game this year. Tomorrow night, the pressure will be off Iowa for the first time in the tournament.

Tournament games thus far: Not much trouble for the Gamecocks; a lot of trouble (at least early on) for Iowa. Iowa struggles with physical, athletic teams. South Carolina will be their biggest challenge of the year, but Georgia, Colorado, and Louisville have at least prepped them for this.

I'm guessing South Carolina can neutralize Monika Czinano inside pretty easily. The bigger question is, can they shut down Iowa's other starters not named Caitlin Clark. If they can this game won't be close, even if Caitlin goes off for 40. If Clark has a bad night shooting this could be a rout.

Intangibles: every team talks about 'togetherness' and 'family'. With the Hawkeyes, it truly is real. Their starting lineup has been together for 90 consecutive games. They know they're outmanned, but no one has each other's backs more than this squad. It's not enough to win a game, but with all else being equal it could be an edge.

PREDICTIONS:

Iowa victory (12%). A Villanova/Georgetown repeat. Iowa stays within 10 rebounds of South Carolina, shoots >40% from 3, and has no more than 14 turnovers. Margin of victory: single digits.

South Carolina rout (25%). Gamecocks flaunt their physical advantage, shut down Caitlin, and demoralize the remainder of the Iowa team. Margin of victory: 25+ points.

South Carolina wins, but competitive (63%). USC's physical dominance results in them gradually building a lead of 15 points. The Gamecocks are famous for gradually wearing down their opponents, but guess what, it's also difficult to play well for 40 minutes. Iowa makes a run in the 4th quarter to cut the deficit to 7 with 4 minutes remaining, and they have the ball. However, from that point on unforced turnovers and missed 3's allow USC to rebuild their lead on into the game's end. Final: South Carolina 78, Iowa 66.

Still hoping for that miracle, but would be satisfied with an injury-free, well-officiated contest.

I think probably Iowa have a big crowd hoping for Clark to cement her legend. Big group of Iowa fans, the fans of the other two schools and unattached ones.

If another dominant team were in SC's place that is what I'd be pulling for.

It feels to me like the worst case scenario is South Carolina being forced to the perimeter and being ice cold and Clark/Iowa being red hot from outside. Basically South Carolina getting blitzed out of the game early and can't recover.

I guess the next most likely scenario is both teams score a lot and Iowa gets the last shot.

 

[The deacon]

I 'would be satisfied with an injury-free, well-officiated contest.'

Thanks so much for your preview, Bijod, and for all others' responses.

As a longtime fan of Iowa sports and an unmitigated admirer of SC's team and program, I'll wish for a Hawkeye upset win but expect otherwise. As Bijod said so well: I would be satisfied with an injury-free, well-officiated game.' Oh, yeah, and a well-played game by both teams.

 

[Bone Dog]

I’ll map out one way Iowa might win.

1) Clark has a big night, obviously.

2) Czinano scores 15. That’s not a huge night for her, and out of context it would look like she’d been contained. But it would be an important contribution. She’s a good low post scorer who shoots quickly, mainly without a dribble. She catches, turns and shoots. She’ll get blocked a bunch too, but she still needs to post up and shoot at least 10 times.

3) Warnock, Marshall and Martin shoot well. They are keys to this and need to score in double figures each.

4) more importantly, those three need to run down the loose balls. They are a ball hawking team and they really need to preserve that aspect of their game. If they get demoralized and give up on loose balls, the gems is over early.

5) Stuelke and O’Grady need to give good minutes. Stuelke runs the court well and she really needs to do this tonight. If she gets free on the break Caitlin can find her. These two are also big strong girls, as is Czinano. They may not be able to outmuscle Boston, but they’re not pushovers either.

There’s a ton of ways SC wins and only a few in which Iowa does. They’ll require everyone to have their A games on. I don’t expect Caitlin to fold under the defensive pressure. She’s used to being keyed on.

Also, since defense isn’t Iowa’s strong suit, I expect SC to score 80+. Can Iowa score more against the best defense in D1? If everyone not named Caitlin scores 50, it’s possible. I’ll be watching Gabby Marshall. She’s a sneaky quick defensive ball hawk. She’s disruptive and needs to have a big night. But if SC makes her a non-factor it won’t end well for Iowa.

Also, one oddity we might see in this game. The refs won’t want to get in the way of this game. And the natural tendency to favor the big stars means there may not be a lot of whistles on Boston or Caitlin. As for everyone else, watch out.

 

[donalddoowop]

I have never been this nervous about a wbb game before. All other big games, we had a lot to win and not much to lose. With the streak and possibility of a repeat on the line, I’m feeling the pressure. I hope the team (particularly our guards) aren’t feeling like me.

But what a great opportunity for women’s basketball this is. Rebels vs Evil Empire, David vs Goliath. Two players of the year. Top (active) guard vs. top big(s). Top offense vs top defense. SEC bs Big 10 bragging rights in all sports. Two of the three most rabid fanbases. Two of the top three most-watched teams on television this year. Chance at record viewership at a time wbb is seeking a separate tv contract for the tournament. All the stars are aligned for record tv viewership except it being a Friday night semifinal on ESPN rather than a Sunday finals match on ABC.

Nearly perfect opportunity for wbb to capitalize on.

I appeal to UConn and Tennessee fans to watch the game tonight or AT LEAST tune a TV set that you aren’t watching on to tonight’s game -even the VaTech LSU game.

DO IT FOR YHE LOVE OF THE GAME! Please!

You don't have to convince me. I plan on watching. I am a WBB fan regardless of what teams are playing. However, I believe the LSU-Virginia Tech game will be the most interesting and close game. I am not a Staley fan but, I don't underestimate her coaching ability and her players devotion to her.

 

[DefenseBB]

The biggest weakness that SC has is their poor shooting. Their FG is .464 and their 3 Pt shooting is .315 where as Iowa is .511 and .379 but what greatly aids SC to mask this glaring issue is their superior rebounding and numerous chances with offensive boards-they have an incredible 653 offensive rebounds (both a testament to their size/rebounding and their poor shooting) whereas the Hawkeyes have only 312 in the same 36 games played. If Iowa can limit the offensive rebounds and can make their shots, they have a great chance to win.

To me, all the various pundits have ignored the poor shooting by SC all year so any real dialogue about where this team would slot in among the ranks of the undefeated teams has to be tempered .

 

[topogigio]

Clark needs to drop 40 points or more, Iowa needs to shoot 60% or more as a team. SC has to be cold as ice, and both Boston and the other big have serious foul trouble or foul out.

 

[WFFL]

The best offensive team left in the tournament versus the best defensive team left in the tournament . Which will prevail ? Ill always choose defense.

 

[GCKSFN4L]

The biggest weakness that SC has is their poor shooting. Their FG is .464 and their 3 Pt shooting is .315 where as Iowa is .511 and .379 but what greatly aids SC to mask this glaring issue is their superior rebounding and numerous chances with offensive boards-they have an incredible 653 offensive rebounds (both a testament to their size/rebounding and their poor shooting) whereas the Hawkeyes have only 312 in the same 36 games played. If Iowa can limit the offensive rebounds and can make their shots, they have a great chance to win.

To me, all the various pundits have ignored the poor shooting by SC all year so any real dialogue about where this team would slot in among the ranks of the undefeated teams has to be tempered .

Is poor shooting really that much of a negative if you grab 49% of the shots you missed and the offensive rebounding usually leads to either a high percentage putback or a foul. A missed shot within the flow of the offense is almost a assist with this team. SC is currently 11th in FG% nationally and are 7th in points scored a game at 80.5 ppg while holding teams to 51 ppg.

I know this game is marketed as Offense vs Defense but SC is a better offensive team than given credit for. If there was a defensive 3 seconds or teams played SC straight up like Maryland did I'm sure SC offensive play and FG % would be much better compared to these junk defenses and zoning trying to limit Boston at all costs.

 

[GCKSFN4L]

I think it's a slim chance but I do think Iowa has a chance. They would need balanced scoring, a great night from Czinano, they also need to be competitive on the boards and actually play some defense. If they can cross those off I think there's a pathway to victory but for my own sake I hope not lol.

 

[triaddukefan]

Not entirely OT, but i hope any Iowa area posters stay safe and keep an eye out this afternoon/evening. Looks like a strong possibility for severe weather and looks like Iowa City is in the heart of the zone. Hopefully it passes through quickly and the state can focus entirely on the game tonight.

 

[JstVisiting]

I think this will be the most focused South Carolina has been for a particular opponent all year save maybe the LSU game.

 

[Dillon77]

The biggest weakness that SC has is their poor shooting. Their FG is .464 and their 3 Pt shooting is .315 where as Iowa is .511 and .379 but what greatly aids SC to mask this glaring issue is their superior rebounding and numerous chances with offensive boards-they have an incredible 653 offensive rebounds (both a testament to their size/rebounding and their poor shooting) whereas the Hawkeyes have only 312 in the same 36 games played. If Iowa can limit the offensive rebounds and can make their shots, they have a great chance to win.

To me, all the various pundits have ignored the poor shooting by SC all year so any real dialogue about where this team would slot in among the ranks of the undefeated teams has to be tempered .

I'm with you and @topogigio on this: Iowa has to be razor sharp, limit turnovers and hope S. Carolina can't drop bait from the dock. Also hope the Cooke stays out of the kitchen.

 

[The deacon]

Not entirely OT, but i hope any Iowa area posters stay safe and keep an eye out this afternoon/evening. Looks like a strong possibility for severe weather and looks like Iowa City is in the heart of the zone. Hopefully it passes through quickly and the state can focus entirely on the game tonight.

Our weather patterns are changing rapidly and the frequency of dangerous storms, droughts and floods are increasing seemingly daily.

Timely post, Triad. Well done! Here's hoping Iowa and its neighboring states escape damage today/tonight.

 

[jdote33]

I think it's a slim chance but I do think Iowa has a chance. They would need balanced scoring, a great night from Czinano, they also need to be competitive on the boards and actually play some defense. If they can cross those off I think there's a pathway to victory but for my own sake I hope not lol.

I agree. Czinano is sortve underrated. She's a great college player. That being said, SC has bigs that are just as physical, taller, and more athletic. So her vs Boston or Cardoso seems like a tough go for her. But great players find a way so we shall see.
I think Kate Martin is like a sneaky good player that can show up big. I feel like she had like 20 against UConn and was lights out. Although I think Zia Cooke is underrated as a player and defender, Martin has good size and strength for her position. If Marshall and Warnock don't get doing, I could still see Martin having a good game which will allow Iowa to remain competitive.

 

[VA Huskie]

We're on the eve of perhaps the most watched womens basketball game in the history of the NCAA. Here's a homer's take on trying to be objective about tomorrow night's contest. Please weigh in with your insights and comments.

First impressions on paper: South Carolina is utterly dominant physically and athletically, plus they have the coach of the year in Dawn Staley. Factors to consider going into the game:

Caitlin Clark named Naismith POY. Extra motivation for USC?
Perhaps, but I think that will be forgotten pretty early in the game. As Coach Staley has stated, they're more motivated by winning the championship.
Also, with Caitlin's acknowledgement of the crowd, she is perceived by some as a showboat. In actuality, she's only displayed this in venues where Iowa's fan base has shown up in force. It's really more of a 'thank-you' to the crowd for supporting the team in person.

Tight or loose? I think this actually favors Iowa. Iowa's played 4 consecutive games as a favorite, and it definitely puts more pressure on the higher seeded team. I have so much respect for USC in having carried the burden through every game this year. Tomorrow night, the pressure will be off Iowa for the first time in the tournament.

Tournament games thus far: Not much trouble for the Gamecocks; a lot of trouble (at least early on) for Iowa. Iowa struggles with physical, athletic teams. South Carolina will be their biggest challenge of the year, but Georgia, Colorado, and Louisville have at least prepped them for this.

I'm guessing South Carolina can neutralize Monika Czinano inside pretty easily. The bigger question is, can they shut down Iowa's other starters not named Caitlin Clark. If they can this game won't be close, even if Caitlin goes off for 40. If Clark has a bad night shooting this could be a rout.

Intangibles: every team talks about 'togetherness' and 'family'. With the Hawkeyes, it truly is real. Their starting lineup has been together for 90 consecutive games. They know they're outmanned, but no one has each other's backs more than this squad. It's not enough to win a game, but with all else being equal it could be an edge.

PREDICTIONS:

Iowa victory (12%). A Villanova/Georgetown repeat. Iowa stays within 10 rebounds of South Carolina, shoots >40% from 3, and has no more than 14 turnovers. Margin of victory: single digits.

South Carolina rout (25%). Gamecocks flaunt their physical advantage, shut down Caitlin, and demoralize the remainder of the Iowa team. Margin of victory: 25+ points.

South Carolina wins, but competitive (63%). USC's physical dominance results in them gradually building a lead of 15 points. The Gamecocks are famous for gradually wearing down their opponents, but guess what, it's also difficult to play well for 40 minutes. Iowa makes a run in the 4th quarter to cut the deficit to 7 with 4 minutes remaining, and they have the ball. However, from that point on unforced turnovers and missed 3's allow USC to rebuild their lead on into the game's end. Final: South Carolina 78, Iowa 66.

Still hoping for that miracle, but would be satisfied with an injury-free, well-officiated contest.

Nice analysis. The matchup reminds me of the game, many years ago, when Princeton, with Bill Bradley scoring 50 points or so, beat a team that they were underdogs to in the NCAA Tournament. I’m pulling for Caitlin Clark to be this year’s Dollar Bill!

 

[VA Huskie]

I have never been this nervous about a wbb game before. All other big games, we had a lot to win and not much to lose. With the streak and possibility of a repeat on the line, I’m feeling the pressure. I hope the team (particularly our guards) aren’t feeling like me.

But what a great opportunity for women’s basketball this is. Rebels vs Evil Empire, David vs Goliath. Two players of the year. Top (active) guard vs. top big(s). Top offense vs top defense. SEC bs Big 10 bragging rights in all sports. Two of the three most rabid fanbases. Two of the top three most-watched teams on television this year. Chance at record viewership at a time wbb is seeking a separate tv contract for the tournament. All the stars are aligned for record tv viewership except it being a Friday night semifinal on ESPN rather than a Sunday finals match on ABC.

Nearly perfect opportunity for wbb to capitalize on.

I appeal to UConn and Tennessee fans to watch the game tonight or AT LEAST tune a TV set that you aren’t watching on to tonight’s game -even the VaTech LSU game.

DO IT FOR YHE LOVE OF THE GAME! Please!

Nice to hear that you’re nervous. To me that means you care a lot. Me… I’m kinda enjoying UConn not being in the FF and therefore not feeling nervous. Not that I wouldn’t prefer that we’d made it, but it will be nice to just sit and enjoy some good basketball.