ACC endgame?

[ZooCougar]

I can see the North Carolina schools, really a society within a conference having their own little pow wow and sticking together.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The key is not the Carolina schools or anything else. It is ESPN. If ESPN steps up with more cash, the league could stay together. If ESPN holds the line, I could see a caucus of schools all deciding to leave at once and voting to eliminate the exit fees.

 

[fortebleedsblue]

NCST, Duke and UNC are connected at the hip, especially the last two. Not going to happen that way. Your just throwing crap against the wall that means nothing.

Money will shred that relation ship like taco bell lettuce

 

[Marty Jackson]

There are two things that stick out to me regarding Swofford right now.

One is from the Washington Post article, in which a person on the ACC's Sunday conference call claimed that Swofford was adamant that the league would act in a "deliberate and strategic manner".



The other is from Swofford's own statement once Maryland officially left the conference 24 hours later - "For the past 60 years the Atlantic Coast Conference has exhibited leadership in academics and athletics. This is our foundation and we look forward to building on it as we move forward"

I read the first comment and I just think that Swofford is gunning for more than one team. He's a daredevil. I could see him possibly going for 16 first.
I read the second comment and think that he's going to make sure that academics will play a part in at least one of the schools taken if not two.

To me the game plan starts with keeping their current schools home. That's why they are going to fight tooth and nail to make Maryland pay $50 million. Not necessarily because they care so much about Maryland's $50 million, but because they want to show the FSU's, the Clemsons, etc. that they will do whatever it takes to collect every penny of that exit fee. You want to leave for the big conferences? Fine, hand over the $50 million dollar bill or prepare for a long, lengthy, ugly fight in the courts.

As for what comes next..

I can't wrap my head around ND joining full now that they're on top of the world. Their recruiting will only improve, they have an outstanding coach, are flooded with cash and TV ratings and rich donors who adore their independence. Swofford will ask and they'll say no.

I also can't wrap my head around Swofford taking Louisville and ending it. How do you stress academics in the statement right after Maryland leaves yet take Louisville over UConn. Makes no sense whatsoever. He intentionally mentioned academics as part of the conference's past, present, and future. The ACC knows they'll never be the SEC but they reason it's OK because they pride themselves on academics. So it's OK. They're doing it the "right way" they reason.

Yet for some reason I also can't see them just taking UConn. He has to throw some kind of red meat to the footballers in his conference. The sharks are at the doorstep. And just threatening the FSU's with a very real 50 mil punishment doesn't seem logical. You want to throw FSU/Clemson/VA Tech a bone while also showing a 50 mil no-nonsense hammer in the shadows.

I think they're taking more than one school, I just don't know what variation..how about this..

When ND joined, Swofford said he was more concerned with achieving an even number of football teams rather than basketball teams. With Maryland's defection, once ND/Cuse/Pitt join, it will be 14BB/13FB. He needs at least one FB team.

option 1 - Take 3 football teams. One football (Ville), one academic (UConn) and a mystery 3rd team. Cincy? Do they hold their nose and take two non-academic schools while taking UConn to help balance it out a bit? That would make the footballers happy and make their BBall league revert to the Big East days where three teams could easily make the NCAA final 4. Hell maybe even 4.
End result 17BB/16 FB

option 2 - Take a bad academic football team (Ville) and balance it with a good academic non-football team (like say Georgetown). They already have ND as a partial member, they can't say they'd never go there - 16BB/14FB. Really really sucks for us.

option 3 - Penn State. Either alone or as part of a trio (Uconn/PSU/Louisville). Yeah, the odds are crazy against it but keep in mind that Swofford will ask. He always aim high..very very unlikely but what the hell. Does PSU view this as a chance to keep turning a new page?
End result with just PSU 15BB/14FB or as a trio, 17BB/16FB.

PSU joining acc is as likely as nd joining be...
They are in hunker down mode for years. Why would they think joining a league that md had to leave would be a good move. Maybe if nd and PSU both agree to join and ESPN says okay, $25m per school maybe...
How likely is that?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If I was John Swofford, I would be in Bristol right now begging, pleading, screaming, throwing chairs, running up and down the halls naked, whatever, until ESPN came up with more money for the ACC.

The ball is in Bristol's court right now. If they want the ACC, they are going to have to pay for it. Either John Swofford will be remember as an idiot whose personal ego sunk a great conference, or he will be remembered as a genius who got ESPN to renegotiate a long-term contract they just signed.

 

[Stinger92860]

If I was John Swofford, I would be in Bristol right now begging, pleading, screaming, throwing chairs, running up and down the halls naked, whatever, until ESPN came up with more money for the ACC.

The ball is in Bristol's court right now. If they want the ACC, they are going to have to pay for it. Either John Swofford will be remember as an idiot whose personal ego sunk a great conference, or he will be remembered as a genius who got ESPN to renegotiate a long-term contract they just signed.

Can the ACC explore the creation on an ACC TV Network with ESPN, ala LHN?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Can the ACC explore the creation on an ACC TV Network with ESPN, ala LHN?

Yes. Basically just hand the ACC it's Tier 3 rights. ESPN doesn't need them, and they are a huge source of friction with every league. Let the ACC follow the Big 12 model. All for one and one for all on Tier 1 and Tier 2, but every man for themselves on Tier 3. It rewards the most valuable programs while allowing everyone to get a good taste of the main deal.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Yes. Basically just hand the ACC it's Tier 3 rights. ESPN doesn't need them, and they are a huge source of friction with every league. Let the ACC follow the Big 12 model. All for one and one for all on Tier 1 and Tier 2, but every man for themselves on Tier 3. It rewards the most valuable programs while allowing everyone to get a good taste of the main deal.

I think they are working on some kind of major announcement. ESPN isn't stupid. The ACC is too logical a fit for the schools in it to be torn apart by small dollars (like those from the Big XII). I still believe that Delaney knows what Notre Dame asked for when they turned down the B1G, and so he knows what the ACC game them (Bevo-like status is my guess). ND knows the writing is on the wall, and will go all in when the NBC contract is done. So ESPN and the ACC announce some kind of ACC Network, or change in tier 3 rights. Nerves are calmed and nobody else leaves. UConn is probably added, but I don't think the ACC likes any of the other schools out there, UL, USF, UCF, and is worried about a 16th when ND joins. That's why the B1G strike is so strategic, it removes a current school, plus one of the two the ACC had waiting. They are now one short.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think they are working on some kind of major announcement. ESPN isn't stupid. The ACC is too logical a fit for the schools in it to be torn apart by small dollars (like those from the Big XII). I still believe that Delaney knows what Notre Dame asked for when they turned down the B1G, and so he knows what the ACC game them (Bevo-like status is my guess). ND knows the writing is on the wall, and will go all in when the NBC contract is done. So ESPN and the ACC announce some kind of ACC Network, or change in tier 3 rights. Nerves are calmed and nobody else leaves. UConn is probably added, but I don't think the ACC likes any of the other schools out there, UL, USF, UCF, and is worried about a 16th when ND joins. That's why the B1G strike is so strategic, it removes a current school, plus one of the two the ACC had waiting. They are now one short.

We are mostly in agreement. I think the college sports execs at ESPN and Swofford probably haven't slept since Friday, banging out a new deal to hold the league together. I don't think ND ever joins a league all in. I suspect the ACC would stop at 14, but there is a small chance they would expand to Louisville and Cincinnati.

If ESPN and Swofford can't find at least $5MM per school per year, then the ACC is finished, and all hell breaks loose.

 

[HuskyHawk]

We are mostly in agreement. I think the college sports execs at ESPN and Swofford probably haven't slept since Friday, banging out a new deal to hold the league together. I don't think ND ever joins a league all in. I suspect the ACC would stop at 14, but there is a small chance they would expand to Louisville and Cincinnati.

If ESPN and Swofford can't find at least $5MM per school per year, then the ACC is finished, and all hell breaks loose.

I'll disagree on ND...as I think the fear of ND joining for football is what caused Delaney to move at this time. He had those discussions with ND, so he knows what they want. Otherwise his timing is quite curious. I think this was a defensive move for the B1G.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Basically these public comments by ND, VT and others are the ACC threatening ESPN. Either ESPN has to cough up some more cash, or the ACC is dissolving.

 

[RMoore1999]

First of all, I think there is about a 50% chance Swofford pulls a rabbit out of a hat and holds this together by getting ESPN to agree to more money.

If the ACC does blow up completely, I think it goes like this:

UNC, Uva to B1G
FSU, Clemson, GTech to Big 12 with Louisville
VTech, NC State to SEC

I think Louisville gets the nod over Miami. Louisville does have strong football and basketball, and more importantly, has fans. Miami's attendance is abysmal, despite the fact that the team is pretty good this year.

I think UConn gets strong consideration against UNC for the last B1G slot. UNC has the better hoops program and draws a little better than UConn. UNC is also mired in a major scandal, and will be splitting a market with at least one other conference. UNC will pull it out in the end, but the comparison will be closer than most will think. Which won't do UConn any good.

I think there is a meaningful chance that the remaining ACC schools, and several other schools east of the Rockies, say "no mas", and form a new conference. I think the top flight academic schools want no part of paying players, and that is where this is going. I think Duke and Wake may rebuild the ACC with like minded institutions that will be focused on academics first. The key to this would be Vandy and Northwestern. If they joined, and think both would, this academics focused league would be pretty formidable from a marketing perspective. I think a lot of these schools are disgusted by the direction of college football. They don't want to drop to DII, but they don't want to be semi-pro either.

If that happened, the Big East would probably be about the same as planned, less Rutgers and Louisville and plus Pitt and maybe Syracuse.

I know this theme has been floated around here recently, but realignment (and the panic sometimes associated with it for fans of schools without a seat at the table yet) truly does lend itself to delusional posts.

"The key to this would be Vandy and Northwestern. If they joined, and think both would, this academics focused league would be pretty formidable from a marketing perspective. I think a lot of these schools are disgusted by the direction of college football. They don't want to drop to DII, but they don't want to be semi-pro either."

REALLY?!?!?!?

 

[RMoore1999]

Basically these public comments by ND, VT and others are the ACC threatening ESPN. Either ESPN has to cough up some more cash, or the ACC is dissolving.

But this on the other hand makes perfect sense. Not sure it will work, but its a plausible strategy.

 

[Adios]

But this on the other hand makes perfect sense. Not sure it will work, but its a plausible strategy.

It'll work if ESPN is wise enough to pay what the ACC schools should be paid. I seriously would rather be in the ACC than the B1G for geographical rivalries. Look at how unhappy some UMD fans are.

 

[Dann]

It'll work if ESPN is wise enough to pay what the ACC schools should be paid. I seriously would rather be in the ACC than the B1G for geographical rivalries. Look at how unhappy some UMD fans are.

when the b10 is done u could have psu/ruty/tosu/md/uva/ind/nd in a east division with u. thats the best goegraphy i have ever heard of in a conf map wise. acc locations are excuses for old ppl who have hard ons for miami and bc still.

 

[Adios]

when the b10 is done u could have psu/ruty/tosu/md/uva/ind/nd in a east division with u. thats the best goegraphy i have ever heard of in a conf map wise. acc locations are excuses for old ppl who have hard ons for miami and bc still.

Keep dreaming. Of old men with hard ons.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I know this theme has been floated around here recently, but realignment (and the panic sometimes associated with it for fans of schools without a seat at the table yet) truly does lend itself to delusional posts.

"The key to this would be Vandy and Northwestern. If they joined, and think both would, this academics focused league would be pretty formidable from a marketing perspective. I think a lot of these schools are disgusted by the direction of college football. They don't want to drop to DII, but they don't want to be semi-pro either."

REALLY?!?!?!?

The alumni at Vandy and Northwestern view their conference mates similar to how UConn views Southern Connecticut. Complete disdain. How would you feel about being in a conference with Southern? They like their sports, but if they were given the choice of being in a league with like top tier academic institutions or Mississippi State and Minnesota, they would choose top tier academics. There has never been the opening for something like that before, but I think Vandy and Northwestern would take a long look, especially if a network stepped up with reasonable money.

Finally, hell will freeze over before Northwestern or Vanderbilt will openly pay players, and that is the direction college athletics is going.

 

[BlueMAB]

I think the top flight academic schools want no part of paying players, and that is where this is going. I think Duke and Wake may rebuild the ACC with like minded institutions that will be focused on academics first. The key to this would be Vandy and Northwestern. If they joined, and think both would, this academics focused league would be pretty formidable from a marketing perspective. I think a lot of these schools are disgusted by the direction of college football. They don't want to drop to DII, but they don't want to be semi-pro either.

Why would it be formidable? If we are moving toward pay for play, this "academics focused league" would be nothing but another ivy league conference. if players are getting paid, and they refuse to participate, then this league would blow, just like the ivy league who refuses to give out scholarships like everyone else does. how marketable is that league?

I have the answer. In fact, I have all the answers, and I will keep posting them because one of them is bound to be right.

Nevermind, I see what you were doing with your "academic focused league". Well played.

 

[RMoore1999]

The alumni at Vandy and Northwestern view their conference mates similar to how UConn views Southern Connecticut. Complete disdain. How would you feel about being in a conference with Southern? They like their sports, but if they were given the choice of being in a league with like top tier academic institutions or Mississippi State and Minnesota, they would choose top tier academics. There has never been the opening for something like that before, but I think Vandy and Northwestern would take a long look, especially if a network stepped up with reasonable money.

Finally, hell will freeze over before Northwestern or Vanderbilt will openly pay players, and that is the direction college athletics is going.

Can't say competing with Southern would excite me much, but if sleeping with them helped me receive $30M plus annually, I'd wrap it up and take the plunge...I suspect Vandy does the same.

 

[BlueMAB]

Can't say competing with Southern would excite me much, but if sleeping with them helped me receive $30M plus annually, I'd wrap it up and take the plunge...I suspect Vandy does the same.

I'm trying to understand the logic behind calling a novelty conference of academic elites (a new Ivy league) "formidable" from a marketing perspective under the assumption players in other conferences will be paid. What he described is the current Ivy league vs. everyone else. What network holds the rights to their games again?

 

[UCFBfan]

I know we want to be a part of the ACC and aren't out of the woods from leaving the BE but does anyone else take a small bit of pleasure reading how the ACC is squirming about their future? For too long it's been us doing this because of the ACC. After reading this thread I couldn't help but enjoy it a little.

Now, can you please let us in ACC??

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

 

[businesslawyer]

I know we want to be a part of the ACC and aren't out of the woods from leaving the BE but does anyone else take a small bit of pleasure reading how the ACC is squirming about their future? For too long it's been us doing this because of the ACC. After reading this thread I couldn't help but enjoy it a little.

Now, can you please let us in ACC??

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

In other times, I would take a great deal of pleasure from it. But there is no point in rejoicing at damage being done to a house that you want to live in.

 

[upstater]

Why would it be formidable? If we are moving toward pay for play, this "academics focused league" would be nothing but another ivy league conference. if players are getting paid, and they refuse to participate, then this league would blow, just like the ivy league who refuses to give out scholarships like everyone else does. how marketable is that league?
Nevermind, I see what you were doing with your "academic focused league". Well played.

Aren't you assuming all the other schools would pay?

 

[Jericho]

Once Maryland left, people wanted to act like it was the first domino to break-up the entire ACC. And that's what a lot of these rumors/stories have been about, these Doomday scenarios where the ACC breaks apart to the SEC/Big 10/Big 12. But I still tend to believe these are more wishes and hopes than reality. For the same reasons people like to stare at a car crash, there's a fascination with destruction. But I don't believe we're at that stage. Not yet.

What's clear is that the SEC and Big 10 are running ahead of everyone right now. The Big 10 is really ahead of everyone since they have their network up and running and printing money. The SEC remains a bit behind time wise, but not in passion or on the field performance. It seems their big pay day is coming. Any school that has either of these conferences come calling has to really work hard to say no. That's a big reason why Maryland left. The Big 10 is in great shape, is making money, is well protected, is full of great universities, and even fits georgraphically. The SEC has most of that, with the exception of the academic prestige (there's a few good schools, but overall it's not the same).

The good news for the ACC is that the Big 10 and SEC are sitting at 14 and both seem to be eyeing the same prize - Virginia and North Carolina. And this is the strength of the ACC. For various reasons, including political and historical, none of the schools in this region really seem too interested in moving. Yet. So that buys time. Sure the Big 12 remains out there, but they don't offer the same benefits. The cash advantage is much reduced. The geography stinks. The academics aren't the same. It's a minor gain to move there. The only school that seems remotely interesed is FSU. If they left, they might be able to find a partner. But if they stay, nothing else happens. And we've already seen some strong opposition to FSU moving (for example, from their president).

The best bet for the ACC is to hold everyone together. The logical add to round out the numbers if UConn. I wonder if there wouold be some consideration to adding a non-football member for strategic purposes. The most likely option seems to be Georgetown. It would help recapture some of the lost DC market and fits academically and athletically. You can then take a 16 team ACC to ESPN to form a potential network. Yes, ESPN already owns the ACC's rights. But it can be win-win for all parties to form a network and use this huge reserve of sports programming.

Although ACC football is not the best, most of the stuff that falls to the networks would be other sports. Like basketball. And the ACC's advantage in basketball should pay large dividends here. Are these fans not going to want access to an ACC network? Not to mention a strong baseball league and what could have been an awesome lacrosse conference (Maryland's leaving prevents a ful roster of teams). I'd have to imagine there's some discussion between the ACC and ESPN about trying to form some network that could market to every state from Maine to Florida. If you add Georgetown, there's schools in some of the biggest cities up and down the East Coast (Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington, Miami, Atlanta, Raleigh/Durham). If that can't make money, not sure what else the ACC can do.

 

[ddminct]

Whatever happened to Observer?