ACC endgame?

[nelsonmuntz]

This isn't just MHVer3 spouting this. Pretty much everyone thinks it is a race for the exits in the ACC. The $50MM exit fee was supposed to be a gating factor, but maybe the reason the Big 10 was not worried about it was because they think they will have a huge hammer to bring the fees down. They can threaten to dissolve the league. Invite UVa and UNC, let the SEC take VTech and NC State, and the Big 12 take GTech, FSU, Miami and Clemson. Including Maryland, that is 9 or 14, and they can change any rules they want.

The remaining schools: Duke, Wake, BCU, Syracuse and Pitt, are just a collection of teams and other than Duke, none have any special value.

The ACC still has the BCS/Orange bid and a decent contract with ESPN. If you added UConn, Louisville, USF and Cincinnati, that is a mediocre 9 team league. Not sure where you go from there.

 

[huskymedic]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...7735ac-3357-11e2-9cfa-e41bac906cc9_story.html

Besides being caught by surprise - another tid-bit:

"The question Swofford posed to his constituents was how to move forward and avoid getting poached again, especially when it comes to appeasing football-first schools such as Florida State, Clemson and Virginia Tech, each of which would be attractive to other conferences looking to expand further"

 

[metsfan2323]

Not sure where you go from there.

Houston, SMU, SDSU, Boise, BYU

 

[Jimdish255]

It's like market psychology, where the same nerds that come on CNBC keep preaching dollar cost avg and diversify and ride it out go running for the exits at the first sign of trouble. These guys will all be choking on their Turkeys and sweating greasy hands on their iphones all weekend because a combination of greed and fear has gotten the best of them. When the regions get destroyed the athletes and ultimately the Universities and sports overall will suffer.

 

[Dann]

some more food for thought

JD is a unc guy
unc pres or ad i forget which is a nd guy
fsu pres or ad i forget is a texas guy
clemson fans were tailgating bot meeting last summer remember?

acc is going to explode all over wake forrest's chest

 

[upstater]

This isn't just MHVer3 spouting this. Pretty much everyone thinks it is a race for the exits in the ACC. The $50MM exit fee was supposed to be a gating factor, but maybe the reason the Big 10 was not worried about it was because they think they will have a huge hammer to bring the fees down. They can threaten to dissolve the league. Invite UVa and UNC, let the SEC take VTech and NC State, and the Big 12 take GTech, FSU, Miami and Clemson. Including Maryland, that is 9 or 14, and they can change any rules they want.

The remaining schools: Duke, Wake, BCU, Syracuse and Pitt, are just a collection of teams and other than Duke, none have any special value.

The ACC still has the BCS/Orange bid and a decent contract with ESPN. If you added UConn, Louisville, USF and Cincinnati, that is a mediocre 9 team league. Not sure where you go from there.

I don't think they can do this. They can't change the rules like that on their way out their door.

 

[Adios]

http://www.theacc.com/accnetwork/

If the ACC can get that up and going like the BTN (and take in UConn), it has the potential to make more money than the BTN. Can anyone with knowledge on television expound upon that? How come no one even knows about this network?

Duke and Wake Forest can be our Northwestern and Purdue.

 

[upstater]

It's like market psychology, where the same nerds that come on CNBC keep preaching dollar cost avg and diversify and ride it out go running for the exits at the first sign of trouble. These guys will all be choking on their Turkeys and sweating greasy hands on their iphones all weekend because a combination of greed and fear has gotten the best of them. When the regions get destroyed the athletes and ultimately the Universities and sports overall will suffer.

Will the universities really suffer?

My favorite story through all of this is seeing football schools like Syracuse and Rutgers plummet in the rankings as sports takes over there, and meanwhile non-football schools like Boston University jump 20 spots. Syracuse leaves the AAU, Boston U. gets added.

The old idea that sports increases academic reputation (which Andrew Zimbalist totally countered) is only true for a few schools (BC, UConn, Notre Dame, etc.) For the vast majority (who lose), their school becomes synonymous with losing (Rutgers, Syracuse).

 

[upstater]

http://www.theacc.com/accnetwork/

If the ACC can get that up and going like the BTN (and take in UConn), it has the potential to make more money than the BTN. Can anyone with knowledge on television expound upon that? How come no one even knows about this network?

Duke and Wake Forest can be our Northwestern and Purdue.

ESPN owns all rights.

In 10 years when cable is ala carte and the BTN collapses, the ACC may have ESPN to lean on. The only question is this: the B10 has the money printing machine churning in the meantime. They can build up quite a kitty. And when things collapse, they will still be alluring for channels such as ESPN.

The only question is, how are they going to handle finances when the bubble pops and everyone is at each other's throats? It will look like a 3rd world country flooded with cash, and suddenly everyone notices the prices are too inflated, and t=revenue slows to not even a trickle. What sort of debts are these schools going to rack up at that point? Admittedly, this may be a good problem to have--if you know how to manage money.

Maryland and Rutgers? They may be like the Mediterranean countries that joined the EU.

 

[gandydancer]

acc end game schmend game -all that matters is where uconn sits when the music stops. I think when the music stops we have 4 super conferences and no ncaa.. I'm going to paraphrase Sonny in the Godfather : when Mike comes out of the bath room I don't want him holding his dick in his hand. I hope UCONN doesn't come out with it's dick in it's hand.

 

[Adios]

ESPN owns all rights.

In 10 years when cable is ala carte and the BTN collapses, the ACC may have ESPN to lean on. The only question is this: the B10 has the money printing machine churning in the meantime. They can build up quite a kitty. And when things collapse, they will still be alluring for channels such as ESPN.

The only question is, how are they going to handle finances when the bubble pops and everyone is at each other's throats? It will look like a 3rd world country flooded with cash, and suddenly everyone notices the prices are too inflated, and t=revenue slows to not even a trickle. What sort of debts are these schools going to rack up at that point? Admittedly, this may be a good problem to have--if you know how to manage money.

Maryland and Rutgers? They may be like the Mediterranean countries that joined the EU.

Is it possible that the ACC can get way more than $17.5 million a year from ESPN if they take in UConn or whoever else? Inflation is inevitable in the US.

 

[upstater]

Is it possible that the ACC can get way more than $17.5 million a year from ESPN if they take in UConn or whoever else? Inflation is inevitable in the US.

I think it is possible. But it has to do with Notre Dame. NBC. The Cuse fans are talking about ESPN, NBC and the ACC getting together to form a Cable Network (Raycom). Other fans are pointing out that ESPN has all the rights and won't relinquish them. But they don't understand how exposed ESPN is here.

Big10 = Fox/BTN
SEC = CBS
Pac10 = Fox

So, ESPN only has the Big12 (and a good portion of Texas games will be Bevo'd) and ACC. They can't afford to let the ACC get killed, so they may be willing to get creative.

 

[Adios]

I think it is possible. But it has to do with Notre Dame. NBC. The Cuse fans are talking about ESPN, NBC and the ACC getting together to form a Cable Network (Raycom). Other fans are pointing out that ESPN has all the rights and won't relinquish them. But they don't understand how exposed ESPN is here.

Big10 = Fox/BTN
SEC = CBS
Pac10 = Fox

So, ESPN only has the Big12 (and a good portion of Texas games will be Bevo'd) and ACC. They can't afford to let the ACC get killed, so they may be willing to get creative.

A Syracuse fan brought up Raycom and the ACC working together in another thread here to create an "ACC Network". From what I've gathered, they've been at it for 2 years. We'd clearly have a larger market than any other conference if the ACC (with UConn in) can get things together properly.

http://www.theacc.com/genrel/090710aac.html

If the ACC can succeed in generating television revenue greater than the B1G and SEC, I'd be all for staying in the ACC.

 

[whaler11]

I think it is possible. But it has to do with Notre Dame. NBC. The Cuse fans are talking about ESPN, NBC and the ACC getting together to form a Cable Network (Raycom). Other fans are pointing out that ESPN has all the rights and won't relinquish them. But they don't understand how exposed ESPN is here.

Big10 = Fox/BTN
SEC = CBS
Pac10 = Fox

So, ESPN only has the Big12 (and a good portion of Texas games will be Bevo'd) and ACC. They can't afford to let the ACC get killed, so they may be willing to get creative.

Yeah ESPN doesn't have any of the Pac 12, Big 10 or SEC.

 

[whaler11]

A Syracuse fan brought up Raycom and the ACC working together in another thread here to create an "ACC Network". From what I've gathered, they've been at it for 2 years. We'd clearly have a larger market than any other conference if the ACC (with UConn in) can get things together properly.

http://www.theacc.com/genrel/090710aac.html

If the ACC can succeed in generating television revenue greater than the B1G and SEC, I'd be all for staying in the ACC.

If the ACC could generate higher dollars than the SEC or Big 10 we wouldn't be having this conversation.

 

[Adios]

If the ACC could generate higher dollars than the SEC or Big 10 we wouldn't be having this conversation.

I am aware of that. Notre Dame and Syracuse have obviously been invited for strategic reasons.

 

[upstater]

Yeah ESPN doesn't have any of the Pac 12, Big 10 or SEC.

Yes, that's what I said. Now what phony words can I put in your mouth?

 

[upstater]

If the ACC could generate higher dollars than the SEC or Big 10 we wouldn't be having this conversation.

More interesting is can they generate more than the Big12, the conference that threatens them.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yeah ESPN doesn't have any of the Pac 12, Big 10 or SEC.

He didn't say that. Tedious.

 

[Dann]

He didn't say that. Tedious.

nelson, what are your thoughts on unc? i have been one who thinks unc to the b10 but several here think not. now i'm starting to see talks that unc to the sec with vt could happen soon. if so then uva will be looking for a partner to go to the b10. hopefully we can get in that slot.

this would mean that ncst goes the the b12 with other southern acc schools i guess?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

First of all, I think there is about a 50% chance Swofford pulls a rabbit out of a hat and holds this together by getting ESPN to agree to more money.

If the ACC does blow up completely, I think it goes like this:

UNC, Uva to B1G
FSU, Clemson, GTech to Big 12 with Louisville
VTech, NC State to SEC

I think Louisville gets the nod over Miami. Louisville does have strong football and basketball, and more importantly, has fans. Miami's attendance is abysmal, despite the fact that the team is pretty good this year.

I think UConn gets strong consideration against UNC for the last B1G slot. UNC has the better hoops program and draws a little better than UConn. UNC is also mired in a major scandal, and will be splitting a market with at least one other conference. UNC will pull it out in the end, but the comparison will be closer than most will think. Which won't do UConn any good.

I think there is a meaningful chance that the remaining ACC schools, and several other schools east of the Rockies, say "no mas", and form a new conference. I think the top flight academic schools want no part of paying players, and that is where this is going. I think Duke and Wake may rebuild the ACC with like minded institutions that will be focused on academics first. The key to this would be Vandy and Northwestern. If they joined, and think both would, this academics focused league would be pretty formidable from a marketing perspective. I think a lot of these schools are disgusted by the direction of college football. They don't want to drop to DII, but they don't want to be semi-pro either.

If that happened, the Big East would probably be about the same as planned, less Rutgers and Louisville and plus Pitt and maybe Syracuse.

 

[huskymedic]

First of all, I think there is about a 50% chance Swofford pulls a rabbit out of a hat and holds this together by getting ESPN to agree to more money.

If the ACC does blow up completely, I think it goes like this:

UNC, Uva to B1G
FSU, Clemson, GTech to Big 12 with Louisville
VTech, NC State to SEC

I think Louisville gets the nod over Miami. Louisville does have strong football and basketball, and more importantly, has fans. Miami's attendance is abysmal, despite the fact that the team is pretty good this year.

I think UConn gets strong consideration against UNC for the last B1G slot. UNC has the better hoops program and draws a little better than UConn. UNC is also mired in a major scandal, and will be splitting a market with at least one other conference. UNC will pull it out in the end, but the comparison will be closer than most will think. Which won't do UConn any good.

I think there is a meaningful chance that the remaining ACC schools, and several other schools east of the Rockies, say "no mas", and form a new conference. I think the top flight academic schools want no part of paying players, and that is where this is going. I think Duke and Wake may rebuild the ACC with like minded institutions that will be focused on academics first. The key to this would be Vandy and Northwestern. If they joined, and think both would, this academics focused league would be pretty formidable from a marketing perspective. I think a lot of these schools are disgusted by the direction of college football. They don't want to drop to DII, but they don't want to be semi-pro either.

If that happened, the Big East would probably be about the same as planned, less Rutgers and Louisville and plus Pitt and maybe Syracuse.

Miami is going nowhere except to double secret probation by NCAA. NCAA gives ultimatum to players in UM investigation. Can UNC be that far behind?

 

[uconnbill]

First of all, I think there is about a 50% chance Swofford pulls a rabbit out of a hat and holds this together by getting ESPN to agree to more money.

If the ACC does blow up completely, I think it goes like this:

UNC, Uva to B1G
FSU, Clemson, GTech to Big 12 with Louisville
VTech, NC State to SEC

I think Louisville gets the nod over Miami. Louisville does have strong football and basketball, and more importantly, has fans. Miami's attendance is abysmal, despite the fact that the team is pretty good this year.

I think UConn gets strong consideration against UNC for the last B1G slot. UNC has the better hoops program and draws a little better than UConn. UNC is also mired in a major scandal, and will be splitting a market with at least one other conference. UNC will pull it out in the end, but the comparison will be closer than most will think. Which won't do UConn any good.

I think there is a meaningful chance that the remaining ACC schools, and several other schools east of the Rockies, say "no mas", and form a new conference. I think the top flight academic schools want no part of paying players, and that is where this is going. I think Duke and Wake may rebuild the ACC with like minded institutions that will be focused on academics first. The key to this would be Vandy and Northwestern. If they joined, and think both would, this academics focused league would be pretty formidable from a marketing perspective. I think a lot of these schools are disgusted by the direction of college football. They don't want to drop to DII, but they don't want to be semi-pro either.

If that happened, the Big East would probably be about the same as planned, less Rutgers and Louisville and plus Pitt and maybe Syracuse.

NCST, Duke and UNC are connected at the hip, especially the last two. Not going to happen that way. Your just throwing crap against the wall that means nothing.

 

[whaler11]

He didn't say that. Tedious.

Right there are 40 threads of NBC nonsense on this board but I'm tedious. Why don't you get back to the Duke, Vanderbilt, Rice conference planning.

 

[The Viking]

There are two things that stick out to me regarding Swofford right now.

One is from the Washington Post article, in which a person on the ACC's Sunday conference call claimed that Swofford was adamant that the league would act in a "deliberate and strategic manner".

The other is from Swofford's own statement once Maryland officially left the conference 24 hours later - "For the past 60 years the Atlantic Coast Conference has exhibited leadership in academics and athletics. This is our foundation and we look forward to building on it as we move forward"

I read the first comment and I just think that Swofford is gunning for more than one team. He's a daredevil. I could see him possibly going for 16 first.
I read the second comment and think that he's going to make sure that academics will play a part in at least one of the schools taken if not two.

To me the game plan starts with keeping their current schools home. That's why they are going to fight tooth and nail to make Maryland pay $50 million. Not necessarily because they care so much about Maryland's $50 million, but because they want to show the FSU's, the Clemsons, etc. that they will do whatever it takes to collect every penny of that exit fee. You want to leave for the big conferences? Fine, hand over the $50 million dollar bill or prepare for a long, lengthy, ugly fight in the courts.

As for what comes next..

I can't wrap my head around ND joining full now that they're on top of the world. Their recruiting will only improve, they have an outstanding coach, are flooded with cash and TV ratings and rich donors who adore their independence. Swofford will ask and they'll say no.

I also can't wrap my head around Swofford taking Louisville and ending it. How do you stress academics in the statement right after Maryland leaves yet take Louisville over UConn. Makes no sense whatsoever. He intentionally mentioned academics as part of the conference's past, present, and future. The ACC knows they'll never be the SEC but they reason it's OK because they pride themselves on academics. So it's OK. They're doing it the "right way" they reason.

Yet for some reason I also can't see them just taking UConn. He has to throw some kind of red meat to the footballers in his conference. The sharks are at the doorstep. And just threatening the FSU's with a very real 50 mil punishment doesn't seem logical. You want to throw FSU/Clemson/VA Tech a bone while also showing a 50 mil no-nonsense hammer in the shadows.

I think they're taking more than one school, I just don't know what variation..how about this..

When ND joined, Swofford said he was more concerned with achieving an even number of football teams rather than basketball teams. With Maryland's defection, once ND/Cuse/Pitt join, it will be 14BB/13FB. He needs at least one FB team.

option 1 - Take 3 football teams. One football (Ville), one academic (UConn) and a mystery 3rd team. Cincy? Do they hold their nose and take two non-academic schools while taking UConn to help balance it out a bit? That would make the footballers happy and make their BBall league revert to the Big East days where three teams could easily make the NCAA final 4. Hell maybe even 4.
End result 17BB/16 FB

option 2 - Take a bad academic football team (Ville) and balance it with a good academic non-football team (like say Georgetown). They already have ND as a partial member, they can't say they'd never go there - 16BB/14FB. Really really sucks for us.

option 3 - Penn State. Either alone or as part of a trio (Uconn/PSU/Louisville). Yeah, the odds are crazy against it but keep in mind that Swofford will ask. He always aim high..very very unlikely but what the hell. Does PSU view this as a chance to keep turning a new page?
End result with just PSU 15BB/14FB or as a trio, 17BB/16FB.