AAC going to 16, why not?

[billybud]

It may be doable...but large increases in revenue may not be there.

The Big 12 expansion was screwed when their media partners were semi threatening with doomsday talk re expansion...

“We don’t think expansion in the Big 12 is a good idea for the conference. We think it will be dilutive to the product in the short term. In the long term, it’s probably harmful to the future of the conference,” Fox Sports President Eric Shanks said earlier this month at Sports Media and Technology conference, according to the Sports Business Journal.

Exposure/TV slots are another thing....maybe the changing technology and access models will change some equations...but for the Big 12 and their attempt to expand, TV slots available for their media partners certainly must have played a role.

The problem was that the two partners didn't really have additional TV windows to air additional content. The Big 12 would add new teams, create new inventory, the TV partners pay a premium for it... but when/where does it air? Basically the existing ESPN and FOX TV windows are already spoken for.

That's why the conference network was such a necessary part of their expansion. If you don't have a place to air the new games, then the existing games need to be significantly upgraded to justify adding inventory that won't necessarily be aired. So just about anyone that was added outside of a blue chip type team would be "dilutive."

 

[Marty Jackson]

Bottom line. If adding these schools could improve the network contract, I'm certain it would be considered.

And if the AAC is dangling a big up tick in payouts, schools will listen.

I'm confident Aresco will consider all options. What the schools and networks decide is wide open.

But, every move so far has revolved around more money.

 

[billybud]

BYU and ESPN must feel fairly comfortable with each other...ESPN has first dibs on all BYU home games and has guaranteed BYU a bowl spot if they are bowl eligible (bowl play was a worry of being independent).

Holmoe says...

“There is new media and every year there’s something new. We’re going to be with ESPN. I don’t think there’s anything right now that’s on the plate or in the near future that you can say is going to turn that upside down. ESPN has been so good to us. We’re going to be with them. It’s just a matter of what happens in the future and I think we grow together. We’ve been able to do some things that with the new platforms that do not conflict with the contract. I think a great example is how willing they are to allow us to do things with BYUtv. So we have the best of both worlds to have both of those opportunities.”

 

[HuskyHawk]

Adding BYU and Colorado State is diluting a conference which includes Tulane and Tulsa. OK. If you can understand that taking from them weakens them, you have your answer.

You realize that BYU football isn't in the Mountain West, right? They have no interest in joining the American. As for CSU, they won 6 games last year. Tulsa won 10.

 

[Kolumbo]

You realize that BYU football isn't in the Mountain West, right? They have no interest in joining the American. As for CSU, they won 6 games last year. Tulsa won 10.

Gee, no, I didn't realize that. Please explain how either of those programs dilutes the AAC. I was talking about both BYU and the other Mountain West members so I should have separated the comments. btw, Western Kentucky and Old Dominion won 11 and 10 games so perhaps that's the right move.

 

[chicago312]

That conference would certainly be able to rival the likes of the ACC and Big 12 in some years. BYU is a Power football program. Sheet, UConn beat Notre Dame in its last meeting. I agree that the power conferences have blue blood dominant programs but even blue bloods sheet the bed some years. The alternative is to live in the G5 gulag. That conference would be much more like the ACC than the Mountain West.

Between 2000 and 2016, BYU finished the season ranked in the AP poll only five times with the highest finish being 12th. I don't consider that to be a power program, and they don't do anything to advance the P6 argument. As long as the B12 has Texas and Oklahoma and the ACC has FSU and Clemson then they will fundamentally be on a different plane.

 

[billybud]

BYU...on that scale of AP finishes, is about like a program like Georgia Tech...who has five AP finishes in that same time with the highest finish being #8.

A solid mid tier program.

 

[Kolumbo]

Between 2000 and 2016, BYU finished the season ranked in the AP poll only five times with the highest finish being 12th. I don't consider that to be a power program, and they don't do anything to advance the P6 argument. As long as the B12 has Texas and Oklahoma and the ACC has FSU and Clemson then they will fundamentally be on a different plane.

I don't really care to argue about the merits of BYU Football and although not an Alabama, it is a very good program with a national following. Reputation goes a long way. More steady than ND, right? No question the AAC is hamstrung by not having an elite program but being a very large conference with solid teams top to bottom may be one way it gets paid.

BYU is extremely steady, for better and worse

 

[billybud]

Musing about these possible adds to the AAC is somewhat like my daily musings.

Do you ever wonder who would win head to head in a race...the Flash, or Superman?

 

[Marty Jackson]

Musing about these possible adds to the AAC is somewhat like my daily musings.

Do you ever wonder who would win head to head in a race...the Flash, or Superman?

why? it's common knowledge that Flash is faster.

 

[billybud]

why? it's common knowledge that Flash is faster.

I have pondered this question almost daily now....is faster than a speeding bullet really not fast enough?

I have decided that Marvel would protect their interests and declare a tie...it's all about the money.

 

[CL82]

Musing about these possible adds to the AAC is somewhat like my daily musings.

Do you ever wonder who would win head to head in a race...the Flash, or Superman?

Flash, duh.

 

[billybud]

Flash, duh.

Well...I finally decided to research it...

 

[Kolumbo]

I have pondered this question almost daily now....is faster than a speeding bullet really not fast enough?

I have decided that Marvel would protect their interests and declare a tie...it's all about the money.

Superman. Flying is always faster than ground travel.

 

[dogged1]

Superman. Flying is always faster than ground travel.

Not since TSA.

 

[Drew]

Only way I'd be okay with it is if it

1. Didn't decrease our annual payout (i.e. it is tied to the new TV deal)

and

2. Meant both divisions could play more regional games in the regular season.

Huge issue nobody talks about-

Would have to go to 9 conference games more than likely. Which is one less spot for non-conference games against P5's or buy games on the road.

If we did it, it'd probably be something along the lines of :

East:

UConn
Cincinnati
ECU
UCF
USF
Temple
UMass
Old Dominion

West:

SMU
Tulsa
Houston
Tulane
Memphis
Navy
Southern Mississippi
Western Kentucky

 

[Slasher]

I have pondered this question almost daily now....is faster than a speeding bullet really not fast enough?

I have decided that Marvel would protect their interests and declare a tie...it's all about the money.

I don't think Marvel/Disney has any say at all since they're DC characters.

 

[billybud]

I don't think Marvel/Disney has any say at all since they're DC characters.

DC or Marvel, ESPN or Fox....efforts will be made to protect their product....thus a tie for Superman vs Flash in the Silver Age

The first race was 1967...

Superman #199 (1967) – The head to head races between the Silver Age Superman and The Flash began here. The two heroes are asked to race for charity. They both readily agree. As usually happens, crime syndicates bet huge sums of money on the outcome and look for ways to sabotage the one they don’t want to win. After several criminal schemes backfire, Supes and Flash finish in a clear tie so as no criminals can cash in. This, of course, leaves the reader with no sense of closure and shaking their fist in the air yelling, “Damn you, DC!!!”. The Flash is now 0-0-1.

Flash #175 (1967) – The next race happened a few months later. Flash and Superman arrive at JLA headquarters to find two aliens who have somehow managed to capture and subdue the rest of the JLA. The two alien gamblers are mad that the first race ended in a tie and want a rematch (you and me both, Mr Alien). This time, Supes and Flash must run to the edge of the Milky Way and back. If Superman loses, Metropolis will be destroyed. If The Flash loses, Central City will be destroyed. Why Superman and Flash don’t just pummel these guys at light speed is beyond me. So, they agree to the race and halfway through they realize the whole thing is a setup to kill The Flash and we get another disappointing “tie” ending (DC. duckk. You.). So at the end of this issue Flash is 0-0-2.

Cut to the short...the Silver Age Flash-Superman went tied....since then in more modern comics...the Flash is 3-0

 

[Vowelguy]

There is zero reason for the American to offer any sort of lifeline to Mountain West teams.

Boise is brand, and would raise the FB strength & reputation of the conference. Would enhance P6 push.
But I dont see a compelling reason for Boise to want to move.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

If the demise of the B12 is imminent keeping 6 spots open until then seems like a better option
If Texas, Kansas ,Oklahoma, and OSU get saved
Than I would rather have WVU
Texas.Tech, Iowa State , KSU, and One more
The East would be
UConn
Temple
Navy *
USF
UCF
WV
Cinn
Memphis
West
Tulane
Tulsa
SMU
TT
ISU
KSU
and two more from
BYU *
Air Force *
Baylor
Colo State *
Boise *
?????
That's not a bad conference
With some BB only schools replacing the * FB onlies

 

[Exit 4]

I think its more likely the B12 remnants seek to add from the AAC rather than wait for an invitation to come to our conference.

There are many permutations but something like:
ISU, TT, OKST, TCU, Baylor, WV + Cincy, Houston, one of UCF or USF and toss in Colorado St (fast growing state).

They could also ignore Memphis' academics or Tulane's penchant for academics for a more geographically cohesive conf which I think these schools value.

In any event, the tv money will have to take a big downshift. But I no longer think the demise of the B12 is a guaranteed ticket to happiness for UConn.

 

[buddy]

I suspect academics means less to the Big 12 than even the ACC. I did read that Memphis has been continually lobbying them for admission, so maybe you are correct and something would happen. In the article, there was no mention of UConn at all. However, I don't see them expanding until ESPN tell them to do so.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

If the AAC is still around in 2023 it's because they have achieved some monetary recognition and stability both in football and BB
Why is everyone making the assumption that AAC teams will be eager to leave
For a Big12(6) that didn't include Texas,Okla, Kansas,and OSU?
Especially since they don't have a media contract.
These six surviving schools on their own don't appear the huge power some are attributing to them.

 

[SubZero]

They could also ignore Memphis' academics or Tulane's penchant for academics for a more geographically cohesive conf which I think these schools value.

The Big 12 doesn't care about academic. They don't even try to pretend they care about academics.

 

[Fishy]

I think its more likely the B12 remnants seek to add from the AAC rather than wait for an invitation to come to our conference.

This is likely our best case scenario - sort of.

The Big Ten, PAC 12 and SEC add a couple of Big 12 teams and then the American gets the two to four orphans left on the raft.

There is absolutely no case to be made for adding Mountain West teams right now. They add to travel costs, diminish basketball even more than it already is and no one, but no one is paying us a dime more for those markets.

Wait six years and then perhaps you can add Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State and maybe even a West Virginia or Oklahoma State.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

This is likely our best case scenario - sort of.

The Big Ten, PAC 12 and SEC add a couple of Big 12 teams and then the American gets the two to four orphans left on the raft.

There is absolutely no case to be made for adding Mountain West teams right now. They add to travel costs, diminish basketball even more than it already is and no one, but no one is paying us a dime more for those markets.

Wait six years and then perhaps you can add Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State and maybe even a West Virginia or Oklahoma State.

Tend to agree that the ACC dream may never happen and that Big 12 leftovers is the best outcome.

Splitting hairs but wouldn't it make more sense for the 4 Big 12 leftovers to just invite whatever AAC schools made the most sense to carry the Big 12 name and not be stuck with Tulane, ECU, etc.?

 

[Fishy]

Tend to agree that the ACC dream may never happen and that Big 12 leftovers is the best outcome.

Splitting hairs but wouldn't it make more sense for the 4 Big 12 leftovers to just invite whatever AAC schools made the most sense to carry the Big 12 name and not be stuck with Tulane, ECU, etc.?

Logistically, there really wouldn't be a Big 12 at that point and given the limited financial upside to leaving the American for an in-name only Big 12, it doesn't make a lot of sense for AAC schools to write a $10,000,000 check and then have to deal with a 27-month notification period to just to pretend they're in a better conference.

 

[SubbaBub]

At that point, Texas Tech and Baylor are not more attractive partners than Houston or SMU. VaTech & WVU if not picked up would drop the midwest teams in a heart beat to join the AAC. ISU and KSU are fine but neither necessary or attractive.

Do the leftovers invite 4 AAC teams or does the ACC invite 2-4 leftovers? Can be determined now. The money and power brokers will speak, but if Texas and the B12 continue their slide in to permanent #5 status, Texas won't stand pat in 2023.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Logistically, there really wouldn't be a Big 12 at that point and given the limited financial upside to leaving the American for an in-name only Big 12, it doesn't make a lot of sense for AAC schools to write a $10,000,000 check and then have to deal with a 27-month notification period to just to pretend they're in a better conference.

I wasn't thinking of the buyout. Good point.

 

[Exit 4]

I wasn't thinking of the AAC buyout either which does give us some protection. However the B12 remnants may have some value in their name and bowl tie ins and still might be able to take what they want, especially if the b12 only losses two schools.

In any event if we can manage to combine the b12 leftovers to our conference, it would be a great victory and our best case realistic scenario. I actually would enjoy the conf.