A Rant about defense

[polycom]

Not believeing in statistics is like not believing in climate change.

Oh really it's that simple? No one I've seen has said the stats are lying. However, people are saying that stats do not tell 100% of the story.

 

[intlzncster]

Do you invest in stock purely on what a chart tells you? If so, this way of thinking makes sense.

If you are using that analogy, he's doing real fundamental/value analysis.

 

[intlzncster]

I've never seen a forum so divided on a subject like this one is with statistics and the eye test. Wait, yes I have...

For the record, I don't know how anyone could look at the stats and say "Nah, they are wrong - this team is pretty poor defensively."

For myself, I don't think they look bad on D. It's the offense that's cringe-inducing.

Perhaps their ineptitude on offense is coloring perceptions of their D.

 

[businesslawyer]

Oh really it's that simple? No one I've seen has said the stats are lying. However, people are saying that stats do not tell 100% of the story.

Of course they don't tell 100% of the story. They are statistics, not a story.

But normally you can come much closer to the story by building it off of statistics than just by ignoring the statistics and thinking that your "gut" knows better.

 

[businesslawyer]

For myself, I don't think they look bad on D. It's the offense that's cringe-inducing.

Perhaps their ineptitude on offense is coloring perceptions of their D.

We just won a game against a quality opponent where we made one basket in the first fourteen minutes of the second half and only four in the entire half. One is free to totally ignore whether our D contributed to that and rely on fairy dust instead to tell a story, but rest assured that isn't where the smart money is.

Our D is carrying us. We struggle because DHam doesn't seem to know what to do when he drives now that he can't just flip the ball high to Brimah when nothing else materializes.

 

[Leebo]

Oh really it's that simple? No one I've seen has said the stats are lying. However, people are saying that stats do not tell 100% of the story.

Well, we do have people (as expected) idiotically claiming this winter storm means climate change isn't real. They're using the eye test.

 

[MexicoHusky]

Wait...people still think we are bad defensively?... i think they've been great as of late.

Dham in particular has been great. In some respect Dham reminds me of Deandre Daniels. He's not blocking shots like DeAndre, but he's rebounding like DeAndre.

 

[intlzncster]

We just won a game against a quality opponent where we made one basket in the first fourteen minutes of the second half and only four in the entire half. One is free to totally ignore whether our D contributed to that and rely on fairy dust instead to tell a story, but rest assured that isn't where the smart money is.

Yep. And it's funny how the smart money is pretty much a minority everywhere in life.

 

[methodology]

Eyes lie. Statistics dont.

This has been a great defensive team but they still have room for improvement. They have gotten a lot better with team defense since Brimah has been out and that should only make their defensive that more imposing when Brimah returns.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Eye test musings:

Georgetown was leading 62-60 with 4:32 left to play, and did not score another point.

Temple & Tulsa were not stopped from scoring in comparable circumstances.

Texas, Yale, Temple, Houston & Memphis weren't stopped last year.

Successful UConn teams have exhibited this characteristic.

I really liked Saturday's closing minutes, including the absorption of 3 missed free throws.

Horrible 2nd half shot selection, layups that play beneath the rim & correspondingly bad field goal percentage are things I can endure when the opposing team is prevented from catching up.

 

[MexicoHusky]

I would like to see a stat that shows how many shots bad shooters get against us. I wonder if bad shooters shoot a higher number of shots against us relative to the rest of their games.

 

[HuskyCLT]

Not that I'd ever wish for this, but Brimah being out could end up being a blessing in disguise. The lack of his presence as an elite rim protector has forced our defense to step up on the perimeter. If they can keep up that kind of intensity with Brimah we will be incredible defensively. It's really impossible to look at our team and say we're a bad defensive team as that's just not the case.

The only area I would nitpick was allowing guys to take open 3's but I think we've done a great job tightening that up lately. It did seem like some of our opponents were heaving up and missing lots of open 3's in some games, which won't bode well against some better teams. Clearly, we're doing a good job based on the stats - I had no idea we were 32nd in the country for 3P%. If anything, I feel like our team has been tightening up the defense and between that and getting Brimah back, we will be NICE.

 

[champs99and04]

Some stats are misleading and in need of context. Other stats - like the ones cited in the OP - are literally a reflection of what happened, and arguing them is about as worthwhile as arguing time ("I'm 34, but that doesn't tell the whole story"...actually, it does, it means you're 34).

Using the schedule as a crutch to explain away these numbers is mostly bogus. No, they're not in the ACC or Big 12, but they've still played five top 50 offenses and held three of them to 40% or less from the field.

Michigan, the #11 offense in the country, shot 32% against us. Some of it was luck, sure, but there's also an infrastructure in place defensively that prohibits us from ever allowing opponents too far north of 40% (I wrote about this in detail before the season).

37% is a startlingly low number (last years Kentucky team, which was considered among the best of all-time defensively, was around that number). Obviously, it's probably not that low if we're in a power conference - but we got a look at what that was like in the OOC schedule, and it isn't as if we got lit up (if you take the aggregate of the Michigan, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Maryland, Ohio State, Texas, and Georgetown games, I bet we're under 4o%).

There's still some ambiguity regarding how good the defense is, but there's no doubt that it has been among the best in America thus far.

 

[James]

Some stats are misleading and in need of context. Other stats - like the ones cited in the OP - are literally a reflection of what happened, and arguing them is about as worthwhile as arguing time ("I'm 34, but that doesn't tell the whole story"...actually, it does, it means you're 34).

Using the schedule as a crutch to explain away these numbers is mostly bogus. No, they're not in the ACC or Big 12, but they've still played five top 50 offenses and held three of them to 40% or less from the field.

Michigan, the #11 offense in the country, shot 32% against us. Some of it was luck, sure, but there's also an infrastructure in place defensively that prohibits us from ever allowing opponents too far north of 40% (I wrote about this in detail before the season).

37% is a startlingly low number (last years Kentucky team, which was considered among the best of all-time defensively, was around that number). Obviously, it's probably not that low if we're in a power conference - but we got a look at what that was like in the OOC schedule, and it isn't as if we got lit up (if you take the aggregate of the Michigan, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Maryland, Ohio State, Texas, and Georgetown games, I bet we're under 4o%).

There's still some ambiguity regarding how good the defense is, but there's no doubt that it has been among the best in America thus far.

Ollie's emphasis on aggressive pick n roll defense is huge in this. the thing about hedging crazy hard is that you need weakside help for the rolling big. Kevin Ollie knows what a good defensive basketball team looks like and he's demanding. It's almost like he's taken it to another level this year with the hard hedge on every pnr, and very early he was a bit nutty with the trapping execution .

The puzzling thing is, why can't the team force turnovers? Uconn doesn't force turnovers and they don't offensive rebound, two weaknesses IMO. Forcing turnovers would turn them into a top 5 defense and also facilitate scoring easy baskets while in a drought ( same with 2nd chance opps deep in the paint).

 

[intlzncster]

But what was most interesting to see was that on average, teams score 5 more points per game WITH BRIMAH than without Brimah in the game. But in terms of FG%, UConn with-Brimah holds their opponents to a FG% 1.5% lower than without Brimah. This could be to a tougher OOC schedule than our in conference? Who knows.

I think the most likely explanation is the simplest one. The team is just simply getting better, and Brimah happens to be injured. Although you could make the case that the kids are doubling down on their effort/execution, because they realize they've no fly swatter to protect their arse if they get burnt. Should make us better when he returns.

 

[Castlevania]

Our defense is not really the problem.. of course sometimes there are lapses, which is too be expected with college players. But, really the problems lies within our offense. Not only will our production on offense improve when Brimah returns, but it will make our defense that much stronger, as well! TEN TOES IN!

 

[6xChamps]

At least the "This is the worst defensive UConn team ever" threads have gone away.. Baby steps.

 

[mauconnfan]

Whether we ARE better without him you can debate, but there is no questions on D that we've PLAYED better without him. Maybe everyone else has stepped up their effort because they are not relying on him, and maybe, with Phil now back to old Phil, the help he gives on the pick and roll at the top of the key is just as important as the shot blocks that AB gives you in the paint.

Not believeing in statistics is like not believing in climate change. You can at the margins make cogent arguments, but eventually the science of means and standard deviations makes one look stupid if they're not willing to accept it.

You're kidding right? I know I'm not stupid and don't believe in all the stats and why would I? CCSU, Scared Heart and UMass Lowell are up there. I mean c'mon

 

[businesslawyer]

You're kidding right? I know I'm not stupid and don't believe in all the stats and why would I? CCSU, Scared Heart and UMass Lowell are up there. I mean c'mon

I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic or not. If you're not:

1. Many of the statistical analyses, like Ken Pom, adjust for the quality of your opponent; and

2. Even if you play awful opponents (or great opponents), stats still tell you the story of how you did against the opponents you played.

 

[Gurleyman]

I responded to this in another thread but am going to repost. I am ready for the barrage of hate I'm about to get. I tend to agree with @polycom if you think the 2015-2016 Huskies are a better defensive team than the 05'-06' team then I'm sorry. I would really enjoy to hear a response that explains why statistics are true when it says that the 15'-16' squad is better defensively than the 05'-06' team. @BLUEDOGHOUSE I didn't get to watch the video - its blocked from my work computer. I will when I get home.

05-06? That team gave up 75 points a game after Williams came back. They could block some shots, but lacked perimeter defense

 

[August_West]

Whether we ARE better without him you can debate, but there is no questions on D that we've PLAYED better without him. Maybe everyone else has stepped up their effort because they are not relying on him, and maybe, with Phil now back to old Phil, the help he gives on the pick and roll at the top of the key is just as important as the shot blocks that AB gives you in the paint.
t.

BAM . Excellent.
Phil is an excellent team defense player. I mean REALLY good. We see the missed bunnies and lack of rebounds and think, meh, but man that kid is seldom, if ever, lost on the defensive end. Helps at the right time, hedges properly, always in good position. If you could merge him and AB you would have easily the best defender in the country. Their strengths are totally opposite each other.

 

[mauconnfan]

BAM . Excellent.
Phil is an excellent team defense player. I mean REALLY good. We see the missed bunnies and lack of rebounds and think, meh, but man that kid is seldom, if ever, lost on the defensive end. Helps at the right time, hedges properly, always in good position. If you could merge him and AB you would have easily the best defender in the country. Their strengths are totally opposite each other.

Yep this. I do know after watching Phil make so many key plays on the ground defensively we do overrate the blocked shot at times.

 

[willie99]

we're playing great defense now

I was more than concerned after watching us play extended periods of horrible defense vs Cuse, Gonzaga and the Twerps, it was concerning

I'm happy about our D now, we're rebounding better and after that offensive debacle at Tulsa, we started to pound the ball down low

all our "analytics" are trending up

 

[Husky68]

Whether we ARE better without him you can debate, but there is no questions on D that we've PLAYED better without him. Maybe everyone else has stepped up their effort because they are not relying on him, and maybe, with Phil now back to old Phil, the help he gives on the pick and roll at the top of the key is just as important as the shot blocks that AB gives you in the paint.

Not believeing in statistics is like not believing in climate change. You can at the margins make cogent arguments, but eventually the science of means and standard deviations makes one look stupid if they're not willing to accept it.

Didn't know you were a UConn fan Al!

 

[Chief00]

Quite frankly, who would have thought Brimah's absence would have hurt us offensively but helped on defense? But, I do think it's played out that way after removing the noise from the statistics.
I agree that Hamilton misses the lob to Brimah and it's truly impacted his offensive game since it both adds assists and creates space for his shot. I also see that teams have fully scouted his spin move.

It's also seems true that the defense has improved since guys take more ownership without the safety valve. I still think both our 3 point defense and post defense needs work - in between it's pretty good. The guys have improved defensive handoffs and hedging. So often 3 point defense is mental - not getting lazy or sleepy and knowing the scouting report count.

I still wish we would run more and get more easy shots since we are not a great shooting team. Not generating more turnovers doesn't help.

Integrating Brimah back into things won't be easy. Other than shot blocking - he is not a natural and rust from not playing will highlight that even more. Guys will also get reduced minutes that could impact team chemistry. The plus side is that it might bolster Dham on offense.

One good thing is Purvis may be starting to improve at the line - that would be huge. Because teams overplay him because he has no left hand - when he goes to the rim he can seldom make a FG when fouled - so it's real important to get 2 FTs rather than none or one out of the trip.