A Dime Back: Firing Kevin Ollie Will Not Fix UConn’s Biggest Problem

[upstater]

How can people be this dense? They already have their own governing body in the P5. They already have taken all the Playoff Money. They already make $50x times what most schools make.

The idea that they're going to continue to split up the March Madness pie forever is absurd. So what? Northern Iowa can afford to pay NCAA referees in a soccer game against Illinois State?

They'll play in March Madness, until it suits them not to. Just as they had no problem doing it in football.

The P5 pretty much has representation in every state in America, so not like they have to worry about congress and with the money they'll have from the Playoff, TV Deals/Networks, and March Madness they'll be able to pay their own referees.

I envision the collapse/de-emphasis of the majority college sports in general in our lifetimes aside from the absolute top levels.

Too much money in hat tourney for them not to get their hands on it. They need to starve the G5 more as Saban intends.

The new transfer rules will help them do that.

Once they've gutted the football side, they'll start in on the bball side.

We're talking a huge amount of money. $1.1b deal, and that's before licensing rights and ticket sales.

Last year the B1G earned 15 units/credits, which is 15 x $272k. That's $4m for the conference. Do you really think they are going to leave $1.1b on the table when they only earned $4m from the tourney last year? $17m per school versus $285k per school. A lot of case.

Yes, costs for championships and referees would skyrocket. But the NCAA takes a yearly cut of hundreds of millions for its offices.

 

[upstater]

There is nothing in any of these articles from anyone that matters.

Coaches and AD's do not matter in a decision such as this.

I could see football breaking away to for a new "super D-1" within the context of the NCAA, but they are not going to form their own separate regulatory body and I suspect they would not hold their own basketball tournament either.

Do you understand the number of lawsuits, not to mention other legal maneuvering that would need to occur in order for this to happen?

Do you understand the political response on both a national and, especially, local level that would happen?

I believe the NCAA has an anti-trust exemption, not the individual schools.

Ok, so now we also have to get into how higher-ed works. There are so many schools that are extreamly interconnected in research and funding etc. that transcend the G5/P5 split.

There is a zero percent chance that college presidents (who would be the ones making this decision, not AD's and certainly not coaches) would risk fraying those relationships and the funding that is provided to them on both a local and national level (which dwarfs athletic revenue) in order to pursue a full split.

The link interviewed college presidents on the matter.

College presidents don't want to risk frayed relationships? Wisconsin and Michigan evicted Nebraska from the AAU. They will do it. They will do it for money.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

You do know most states aren't like CT with only one "big-time" athletic program, right?

Take Ohio. There's Ohio State, but also UC with a ton of alum, Xavier, Dayton and all those MAC schools who not only have tons of alum who vote, but also have tons of alum in positions of power.

Lol, yes. Dayton and Miami of OH are going to dictate what Ohio State is going to do.

 

[UConnJim]

P5 schools get $30-40m to subsidize their programs.

Dropping to the MAC, or dropping to D1AA or whatever it's called, you still incur a $10m loss for football. But with no money coming in.

The BE schools get $3.8m.

They will soon be isolated by the P5, who want out of the NCAA so they can keep that $1B soon to be $1.5B contract a year to themselves.

When that happens, the non-football schools will be dwarfed and destroyed by the revenue disparity. Good luck.

Upstater, I think you misunderstand the revenues of college athletics. NCAA basketball is about as lucrative as NCAA football. The difference is that most of the NCAA basketball tournament money goes to the NCAA to fund the NCAA, fund championships for non-revenue sports, give money to lower divisions,... NCAA football money basically stays with the P5 which is one of the reasons why conference realignment has been all about football. (As well as ~80% of conference TV revenues comes form football.)

Is it fair? Heck no as basketball is basically helping provide more money to the football schools as basketball pays for almost everything. If you are the P5 that plays both FBS football and Division 1 basketball, the NCAA's take of the basketball money doesn't really impact you. If you are a basketball only school, this impacts your potential economics.

One way or another, if the P5 separated from the rest of the schools the non-revenue sport championships would have to be paid for as well as some administrative body and other costs. But, a basketball tournament with just the P5 would be not be as lucrative. And, why would the P5 separate in football as they are already getting almost all of the money?

 

[upstater]

Upstater, I think you misunderstand the revenues of college athletics. NCAA basketball is about as lucrative as NCAA football. The difference is that most of the NCAA basketball tournament money goes to the NCAA to fund the NCAA, fund championships for non-revenue sports, give money to lower divisions,... NCAA football money basically stays with the P5 which is one of the reasons why conference realignment has been all about football. (As well as ~80% of conference TV revenues comes form football.)

Is it fair? Heck no as basketball is basically helping provide more money to the football schools as basketball pays for almost everything. If you are the P5 that plays both FBS football and Division 1 basketball, the NCAA's take of the basketball money doesn't really impact you. If you are a basketball only school, this impacts your potential economics.

One way or another, if the P5 separated from the rest of the schools the non-revenue sport championships would have to be paid for as well as some administrative body and other costs. But, a basketball tournament with just the P5 would be not be as lucrative. And, why would the P5 separate in football as they are already getting almost all of the money?

There is confusion here.

The NCAA basketball money does not go to the schools. Very little of it does. I showed above that the B1G made $4m off the NCAA tourney last year.

I already wrote what you did about the NCAA getting a huge cut, and funding the championships for other sports.

But with $1.1B coming in, they are leaving a lot of money on the table. First, the NCAA takes half that for their offices alone.

 

[Guapo]

Lol, yes. Dayton and Miami of OH are going to dictate what Ohio State is going to do.

Where did I say that those schools would dictate it?

Their alumni certainly can.

Paul Ryan went to Miami, Ohio (not that that reflects well on Miami but that's neither here nor there) for instance.

 

[Guapo]

The link interviewed college presidents on the matter.

College presidents don't want to risk frayed relationships? Wisconsin and Michigan evicted Nebraska from the AAU. They will do it. They will do it for money.

That's one school and one organization.

Also, you left out the funding part...

 

[HuskyHawk]

Expensive to do what?

There are dozens of articles out there: Power 5 vs. Group of 5: College football's split decision

Try this one too: College sports administrators recognize growing gulf

An important aspect that people overlook. There aren't enough teams in the current P5 to pull this off. The basketball tournament wouldn't work and too many state university systems would be left on the side of the road. So before this happens, there will be expansion. Either the existing 5 will grow or a sixth will be added or some combination of that.

UConn (and honestly the whole league of the AAC) is doing what it can to position itself for a seat at the table when this happens. ND might be forced to join the ACC to come along. Who knows what will happen? Or when? But I believe that school without D1 football has chosen permanent relegation to the sidelines. Moving to the NBE would be accepting that fate.

 

[upstater]

That's one school and one organization.

Also, you left out the funding part...

You're losing me here. What do you mean the funding part?

By the way, did you know the AAU is involved in lobbying/funding questions that dwarf TV sports money? We are talking hundreds of billions of dollars yearly here. 1/2 of all foundation money goes to the AAU schools. To be kicked out of that, for a school is to be effectively castrated as a top research university. Getting in is very difficult. Getting kicked out is a death sentence.

The AAU makes the NCAA look like a small time gig.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Where did I say that those schools would dictate it?

Their alumni certainly can.

Paul Ryan went to Miami, Ohio (not that that reflects well on Miami but that's neither here nor there) for instance.

Schools, alumni, congress, whatever.

They either don't have the power or more likely, they don't even want to challenge the status quo.

 

[Tuna]

To be clear, if KO is the coach going forward and continues on the current trajectory, there will be no basketball brand left to discuss. The damage already done by KO is incalcuably large. I don't think that's hyperbole. He was entrusted with virtually the top college basketball program over the last 2 decades, and burned it down to joke that can't even handle second tier competition. And, yes, football is ultimately more relevant in today's world of college sports economics.

So if KO is the coach in perpetuity and they finish .500 every year the basketball brand will be dead? Got it. Thanks for going out on a limb there.

I'll make it simple. Who has a better chance of being ranked in the top 25 first, basketball under Ollie or football?

 

[Guapo]

You're losing me here. What do you mean the funding part?

By the way, did you know the AAU is involved in lobbying/funding questions that dwarf TV sports money? We are talking hundreds of billions of dollars yearly here. 1/2 of all foundation money goes to the AAU schools. To be kicked out of that, for a school is to be effectively castrated as a top research university. Getting in is very difficult. Getting kicked out is a death sentence.

The AAU makes the NCAA look like a small time gig.

Oh for sure, the AAU is obviously an incredibly important organization that does dwarf the NCAA.

But that is kind of my point. There are bigger issues and relationships at stake here, Nebraska getting kicked out had nothing to do with sports. In fact, many of those same presidents who kicked them out invited them to the Big 10.

Look, nothing is impossible. I'm just saying that speaking about this as a forgone conclusion is crazy. There are so many moving parts, and so many people with hands on various purse strings.

UConn should certainly not be factoring in this totally speculative idea in the decisions it makes regarding athletics.

 

[Guapo]

Schools, alumni, congress, whatever.

They either don't have the power or more likely, they don't even want to challenge the status quo.

The idea of the P5 breaking away is the idea that is challenging the status quo!

 

[upstater]

An important aspect that people overlook. There aren't enough teams in the current P5 to pull this off. The basketball tournament wouldn't work and too many state university systems would be left on the side of the road. So before this happens, there will be expansion. Either the existing 5 will grow or a sixth will be added or some combination of that.

UConn (and honestly the whole league of the AAC) is doing what it can to position itself for a seat at the table when this happens. ND might be forced to join the ACC to come along. Who knows what will happen? Or when? But I believe that school without D1 football has chosen permanent relegation to the sidelines. Moving to the NBE would be accepting that fate.

I think it could work as a 32 team tournament.

Once they lock it down, all the talent will flow to the P5 schools.

Although you may be right that for basketball purposes, they include some other conferences like the BE, but at a greatly reduced rate.

Does this open them up to lawsuits? You include the BE but not the AAC? (Can the AAC be included if you're not going to include them for football?)

 

[upstater]

Oh for sure, the AAU is obviously an incredibly important organization that does dwarf the NCAA.

But that is kind of my point. There are bigger issues and relationships at stake here, Nebraska getting kicked out had nothing to do with sports. In fact, many of those same presidents who kicked them out invited them to the Big 10.

Look, nothing is impossible. I'm just saying that speaking about this as a forgone conclusion is crazy. There are so many moving parts, and so many people with hands on various purse strings.

UConn should certainly not be factoring in this totally speculative idea in the decisions it makes regarding athletics.

I didn't say it's forgone. But in an era when school subsidies are being slashed (the state is talking about cutting UConn's subsidy by $300m over the next several years!!) there is no president out there who will sneer at a huge pot of money. And even at the private schools like Duke and Northwestern, they are going to be taking a 1.5% annual tax hit on their endowments under the new tax law.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

The idea of the P5 breaking away is the idea that is challenging the status quo!

If the P5 broke way from the NCAA Tournament, that doesn't change the end game for a lot of colleges. Outside of a handful of schools that can or want to compete for titles in March Madness, there are hundreds of schools who probably would use the P5 break to de-emphasize athletics altogether since they no longer would have the funding.

 

[Guapo]

I didn't say it's forgone. But in an era when school subsidies are being slashed (the state is talking about cutting UConn's subsidy by $300m over the next several years!!) there is no president out there who will sneer at a huge pot of money. And even at the private schools like Duke and Northwestern, they are going to be taking a 1.5% annual tax hit on their endowments under the new tax law.

Maybe you're right, but I think when forced to choose between a pot of athletic money and protecting academic funding and research funding (which we've established dwarfs athletic revenue) they will choose to to not risk consortiums that allow them access to sweet NIH research grants etc.

I just found a random study that UConn is comducting involving lemons (lol). Look at the other schools collaborating.

Basically, all I've been trying to say is that a break away will be far more complicated, as things are so interconnected, then some on here are making it out to be.

 

[upstater]

Maybe you're right, but I think when forced to choose between a pot of athletic money and protecting academic funding and research funding (which we've established dwarfs athletic revenue) they will choose to to not risk consortiums that allow them access to sweet NIH research grants etc.

I just found a random study that UConn is comducting involving lemons (lol). Look at the other schools collaborating.

Basically, all I've been trying to say is that a break away will be far more complicated, as things are so interconnected, then some on here are making it out to be.

But what I was trying to emphasize is that the AAU already operates as the P5. They exclude a huge number of schools, and they get more than 50%+ of the money. The P5 might even be modeled on the AAU, one might say.

 

[John]

An important aspect that people overlook. There aren't enough teams in the current P5 to pull this off. The basketball tournament wouldn't work and too many state university systems would be left on the side of the road. So before this happens, there will be expansion. Either the existing 5 will grow or a sixth will be added or some combination of that.

UConn (and honestly the whole league of the AAC) is doing what it can to position itself for a seat at the table when this happens. ND might be forced to join the ACC to come along. Who knows what will happen? Or when? But I believe that school without D1 football has chosen permanent relegation to the sidelines. Moving to the NBE would be accepting that fate.

Exactly. The Big East is a road to nowhere. Uconn must fight tooth and nail to remain at the football table in order to preserve at least some chance of a bright future in athletics.

 

[Paesano]

And even at the private schools like Duke and Northwestern, they are going to be taking a 1.5% annual tax hit on their endowments under the new tax law.

Oh, joy. Now they will bring in more international students to get more money to make up for the tax hit. As if there weren't already way too many....

 

[HuskyHawk]

So if KO is the coach in perpetuity and they finish .500 every year the basketball brand will be dead? Got it. Thanks for going out on a limb there.

I'll make it simple. Who has a better chance of being ranked in the top 25 first, basketball under Ollie or football?

Football.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

That’s an extremely stupid thing to do nevermind argue about.

It's a practice not as uncommon as you rightly think it should be, but I almost admire him for admitting to it.

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

I don’t want that to happen. I’m nothing like you and plenty of the other guys taking victory laps over what you see as being vindicated over Ollie. But it is a distinct possibility, and I seem to be the only one who even acknowledges that.

At least I’m not the grade-a psycho who fantasizes about arresting Ollie and putting him on trial.

I acknowledge that bringing in some other coach may be worse than what we are currently experiencing with Ollie, but we wont know that for a fact unless it happens. I dont think keeping Ollie around on the fear that the school will be worse off justifies Ollie sticking around. There are a lot of tough questions that need to be asked once the season ends. If Uconn's problem is a talent issue that can be rectified with better recruits or if it all just comes down to Ollie and his coaching.

 

[Paesano]

This is our Sagarin rating as of today:
Top 25 Top 50
Rank Overall W L SOS(Rank) W L W L Predictor Rank Recent Rank
126 Connecticut 74.57 12 13 78.08( 47) 0 7 1 9 74.12 128 70.83 196

This is well below where we were last year and the worst part is that the recent rank is way below the current rank which means we are going backwards.

 

[Waquoit]

After tonight's game. nobody is going to convince me that KO isn't this program's biggest problem. He's a joke.