A Dime Back: Firing Kevin Ollie Will Not Fix UConn’s Biggest Problem

[BlueDogs]

So were you referring to P5? Or were you saying if we are in the AAC long term and have Ollie as our coach, football will be better for the brand than hoops? If it's the latter, like I said you should be really worried about your judgement because you've lost your marbles.

To be clear, if KO is the coach going forward and continues on the current trajectory, there will be no basketball brand left to discuss. The damage already done by KO is incalcuably large. I don't think that's hyperbole. He was entrusted with virtually the top college basketball program over the last 2 decades, and burned it down to joke that can't even handle second tier competition. And, yes, football is ultimately more relevant in today's world of college sports economics.

 

[whaler11]

So I finally read the article closely. Solid read. (One note - Lashlee wasn't the best OC and he wasn't even really close).

I would say there is an even bigger underlying issue:

In the last couple of days I did my taxes and received my town's proposed school budget.

This is anecdotal but there are going to be a lot of people in this position. When the 10k cap on deducting state and local taxes is effective a lot of the people that have carried this state from a tax revenue perspective are going to have to take a long hard look.

We've lost some of the big FFLD county whales over the past few years - but this bill is going to have tens of thousands of upper middle class families assessing things.

My town's schools are pretty good and the superintendent we hired a couple of years ago is like watching Brad Stevens at Butler. The budget they are requesting is only looking for a 3% increase. Every single line item is reasonable: $2,000 for an assistant cheerleading coach. $10,000 for leveled books for Kindergarten. Fair enough.

However, the town also passed a referendum for a new $19 million dollar town hall in November, by a handful of votes in what might have been a rigged election.

At what point do you walk away? At the exact same time my state and local taxes effectively go up 20% the town has the nerve to bond $19 million dollars for a building we don't need? I bought my house 11 years ago, have invested 50+k in it and when I got a refi appraisal last year it came in 75k less than I paid originally and that was generous. Every third house in my neighborhood is for sale, and at least a half dozen people have just walked away and eaten the foreclosure in the last 18 months.

The world changed, people aren't bound geographically. Those of us here only own the state pension liability if we choose to stay.

Things are going to get bleak fast for UConn from a funding perspective. I would have expected by now that the students would have started to revolt over the subsidy. it's going to get interesting. I have to admit the hockey situation does make me laugh. When they condemn the XL Center in 5 years, I want to be on the phone when UConn tries to convince Hockey East that the Bolton Ice Palace is a suitable home.

 

[Towney007]

I dunno I guess one of the bigger problems I observe among the UConn 'community' so to speak is just a really confused sense of what we are and what we're capable of being vs. what we should be.

Yeah, I'm in the camp its time for a change at the top of men's hoops, but what I think should be made readily apparent is that firing Ollie isn't a good thing and that the replacement could very well be worse. I think its a chance worth taking at this point...

.... because a lot of people are still really convinced our road map out of this is football, which I just categorically disagree with at this point. I think the worst thing UConn can do right now is NOT separate out the prospects for football from men's basketball. There was a time where tying them together was the right thing to do. Indisputably so. But the conference we're in - we're in it *because of the goal of succeeding in football to the degree that we get a P5 invite*. Nothing more, nothing less. That football is the only way out an the only pathway to success and that any future prospects for basketball MUST be tied to football and while that end goal is probably the best all around outcome - I just don't see realistically how that plays out. I don't see that road map anymore. We're getting murdered in recruiting in our own conference. Because we're trying to build the football program, we're saddling the basketball program in a conference where they have no margin for error. The history and psychology behind the match ups isn't there - so when you lose - the normal revenue/attendance issues you're facing are compounded because there's no interest in say - seeing if we can just put the screws to a Syracuse or a Villanova.. or a Georgetown or Providence. Even when we're good - we need to be dominant to get the kinds of seedings that are favorable or simply just to get in. We were a top 30 team in KenPom when we won the conference tournament and still only ended up as an 8 seed. Our eventual national championship team - which was leagues better than our last tournament team - was seeded *seventh*.

So while people say winning cures all - it really doesn't. It just presents a whole swath of other problems - better problems mind you - but problems nonetheless - problems we're not dealing with if we are in a situation like the Big East. And even winning, our attendance and revenues are STILL down. It's NOT going to solve the problem on its own.

So yeah - the conference at the end of the day - almost no matter the outcome record-wise - is a huge problem. And we're in that predicament because we're putting so much behind a long shot bet on football and to me - to sacrifice your school's 'front porch', it's identity and source of institutional pride for a long shot at something is just a wildly insane bet given the totality of the situation and the cards that are on the table. To me it's a matter of survival at this point - like we're down 0-3 in a 7 game series and there aren't ideal options on the table. So we've gotta throw everything at our best possible shot now and worry about the pitfalls of tomorrow when we've actually got a tomorrow to look at them.

So regardless of where either program ends up in the long run - I think we at least need to be at a point as an institution where we separate the two out.

As to Ollie - all of these things have played a role in his downfall. In the big picture - his recruiting has been fine. But even had it all worked out, are we in a demonstrably better position? I mean I dunno if we are. And even recruiting is becoming harder because Ollie's kind of soiled the program's reputation in a conference where you really can't afford to do that anymore. There's only so much we can do here, and that's the frustrating part.

The Big East doesn't solve the program's troubles on its own - but it does lead to better revenue for hoops by a lot. It gives us a better package to sell. It gives us more interesting opponents and more traditional, competitive rivals. And even if the program continues to head south - at least you've given yourself a real shot at righting the ship. From there, things fall where they fall.

So for me this coach or any coach isn't a panacea even though Ollie needs to go. And the conference relocation doesn't solve the problems the program has either. But the two combined I think - gives you the best shot. That's why I'm for both.

 

[willie99]

Literally every time this argument is made, you can counter with “why aren’t we winning if we have the highest ranked recruits in the conference?”

And it never gets answered.

seriously?

Hamilton leaving early and unexpectedly May 2016
Diarra injured August 2016
Gilbert injured November 2016
Larrier injured November 2016
16/17 team struggles with inexperience kids getting much more time than expected
Reset button May 2017
Three of the teams freshmen leave May 2017
Top recruit decommitts because coach fired May 2017
Gilbert re-injured November 2017
Larrier, still recovering from a torn AC and not playing at 100% yet, fractures nasal canal Jan 2018
17/18 teams struggles with inexperienced kids getting much more time than expected

Those recruits were either injured or transferred when they didn't like the changes

That question has been answered 100,001 times, never mind never

 

[ConnHuskBask]

@nomar How was the bet on football that crazy? They were upgrading to a league with Miami, Virginia Tech, BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia and Rutgers?

Even after Miami, VT, and BC left, there were admirable replacements and we proved we could compete and win a regional FBS league.

Second place doesn't get you squat and it's why were in the AAC, but the whole premise of upgrading football was to PROTECT basketball and we came in defacto 2nd place multiple times when the ACC was expanding. Maybe a little less BC, a little less Florida State, maybe a little more monitoring and this whole discussion is mute because we are making $40M a year in the ACC.

My point being is that UConn Football wasn't some crazy notion that was a pie in the sky attempt at trying to get into the Big Ten. It was an attempt to put ourselves on the right side of the ledger when the big football schools split. So far the prediction of the big schools essentially splitting (P5) has came halfway to fruition. When they take their hoops tourney, then what?

So yes, it doesn't look like it worked out at the moment. And hell, it looks like it's never going to work out and we may have to grovel to join the Big East and drop football.

With that said we've come this far, it's worth hanging around as @upstater noted until the next round of TV deals. If we're still out, then we may be back to the Big East - if they'd even want us.

 

[Paesano]

seriously?

Hamilton leaving early and unexpectedly May 2016
Diarra injured August 2016
Gilbert injured November 2016
Larrier injured November 2016
16/17 team struggles with inexperience kids getting much more time than expected
Reset button May 2017
Three of the teams freshmen leave May 2017
Top recruit decommitts because coach fired May 2017
Gilbert re-injured November 2017
Larrier, still recovering from a torn AC and not playing at 100% yet, fractures nasal canal Jan 2018
17/18 teams struggles with inexperienced kids getting much more time than expected

Those recruits were either injured or transferred when they didn't like the changes

That question has been answered 100,001 times, never mind never

You should work for MSNBC.

Nice spin but talking only about who was lost and when misses the main point, which is what we had and what was done with it. Last year was actually the biggest indicator of Ollie's incompetence. We had the most talented team in the AAC, even after the injuries. We had a team that had people thinking a deep run in the tournament before the injuries. They lost to Wagner and Northeastern with everyone healthy. How do you defend coming into that season that unprepared with two McD AAs (one being a senior), a borderline 5 star soph like Adams, two seniors like Facey and Brimah, a transfer like Larrier and a solid recruiting class?

You want to talk about the kids we lost because it distracts people from what we had and what was not done with it.

Now we really do have a thin roster so the pain continues. But, again, whining about losing Gilbert ignores the fact that the team we have is not getting better. That fact plus last year's failure is all anyone should need to know.

 

[Rico444]

And we can’t win in this league... thats the point.

I don't think anyone doubts that the program has underachieved the past few years, but ultimately we all believe UConn is a better program than that and will get back to where we belong. When that happens, I'd much rather be in a better conference with better rivalries where we can attract the type of recruits that we won with from the late 80s to the early 2010s. New York kids don't want to travel to Tulsa and Wichita.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So I finally read the article closely. Solid read. (One note - Lashlee wasn't the best OC and he wasn't even really close).

I would say there is an even bigger underlying issue:

In the last couple of days I did my taxes and received my town's proposed school budget.

This is anecdotal but there are going to be a lot of people in this position. When the 10k cap on deducting state and local taxes is effective a lot of the people that have carried this state from a tax revenue perspective are going to have to take a long hard look.

We've lost some of the big FFLD county whales over the past few years - but this bill is going to have tens of thousands of upper middle class families assessing things.

My town's schools are pretty good and the superintendent we hired a couple of years ago is like watching Brad Stevens at Butler. The budget they are requesting is only looking for a 3% increase. Every single line item is reasonable: $2,000 for an assistant cheerleading coach. $10,000 for leveled books for Kindergarten. Fair enough.

However, the town also passed a referendum for a new $19 million dollar town hall in November, by a handful of votes in what might have been a rigged election.

At what point do you walk away? At the exact same time my state and local taxes effectively go up 20% the town has the nerve to bond $19 million dollars for a building we don't need? I bought my house 11 years ago, have invested 50+k in it and when I got a refi appraisal last year it came in 75k less than I paid originally and that was generous. Every third house in my neighborhood is for sale, and at least a half dozen people have just walked away and eaten the foreclosure in the last 18 months.

The world changed, people aren't bound geographically. Those of us here only own the state pension liability if we choose to stay.

Things are going to get bleak fast for UConn from a funding perspective. I would have expected by now that the students would have started to revolt over the subsidy. it's going to get interesting. I have to admit the hockey situation does make me laugh. When they condemn the XL Center in 5 years, I want to be on the phone when UConn tries to convince Hockey East that the Bolton Ice Palace is a suitable home.

I agree with all of this. It may have made sense when we first started, but we have lost the bet on football. There is no realistic way to upgrade the football program, and we are taking the whole athletic program down with it.

 

[upstater]

I agree with all of this. It may have made sense when we first started, but we have lost the bet on football. There is no realistic way to upgrade the football program, and we are taking the whole athletic program down with it.

P5 schools get $30-40m to subsidize their programs.

Dropping to the MAC, or dropping to D1AA or whatever it's called, you still incur a $10m loss for football. But with no money coming in.

The BE schools get $3.8m.

They will soon be isolated by the P5, who want out of the NCAA so they can keep that $1B soon to be $1.5B contract a year to themselves.

When that happens, the non-football schools will be dwarfed and destroyed by the revenue disparity. Good luck.

 

[upstater]

The Big East is a revenue bump.

The BE is not a revenue bump.
They may $3.8m a year.
You have to include the $2-3m extra the AAC schools get for the football playoff and bowls. Add that to the TV package (which will increase this year) and the AAC makes more money. Also, the BE retains all tier3 rights, while the AAC gives some back to UConn ($1-2m worth a year).
The consider the exit fee UConn would have to pay.

 

[Guapo]

P5 schools get $30-40m to subsidize their programs.

Dropping to the MAC, or dropping to D1AA or whatever it's called, you still incur a $10m loss for football. But with no money coming in.

The BE schools get $3.8m.

They will soon be isolated by the P5, who want out of the NCAA so they can keep that $1B soon to be $1.5B contract a year to themselves.

When that happens, the non-football schools will be dwarfed and destroyed by the revenue disparity. Good luck.

There are plenty of legitimate reasons to be against this proposal, the fear of the P5 breaking off from the NCAA is not one them.

That is a fear that only seems to exists in the Boneyard.

 

[HuskyHawk]

It seems the UConn community is as divided as the nation on Ollie, football, the New Big East, etc. I doubt that anything said here, or by ADB, will change that in any way.

My own perspective.

1. Ollie was in over his head on day 1. He was carried by the participation of Calhoun in practices, and Hobbs, and players recruited and taught by JC. They are gone (JC, Hobbs and the players) and we see he can't do the job. No team in America is less prepared or underachieves as much as this one has the last two seasons. Nobody else looks this dysfunctional. A team like Yale may lose because the athletes aren't great, but they never look as clueless and inept as this team does. I do not believe that it is a miraculous coincidence that players who were good in HS, suddenly forget how to play when they come to UConn.
2. The only issue with upgrading to D1 Football is that we did it too late. But sooner or later, every team in the New Big East will find itself shut out of the new landscape, because basketball will be controlled by those who also play D1 football. And baseball as well. The have's and have nots. I don't care if it is Villanova or Gonzaga, those are dead programs walking. The only hope to have an AD that is beyond Patriot league level is if you play D1 football. Any other view is simply based on nostalgia.
3. Even if you don't accept #2, the difference in quality of play between the Big East and American is not some vast gulf. It's a small stream, and the gap is shrinking every year. As others gave pointed out, the primary failure of prestige and success in the American falls on three of the four schools that were supposed to carry it in basketball. UConn, Memphis and Temple. We have failed the league to a much greater degree than it has failed us. The Big East would change nothing at all for our basketball team.
4. Football is on the right path. The Hockey Team is playing very well. The baseball team is excellent, and benefits greatly in this strong baseball league. Soccer has trended down, but not because the league isn't good, because the coach is mediocre and should move on. Basketball is down because the people in charge of that program are not doing the job. That's it. It's nearly 100% of the problem.

 

[Guapo]

The BE is not a revenue bump.
They may $3.8m a year.
You have to include the $2-3m extra the AAC schools get for the football playoff and bowls. Add that to the TV package (which will increase this year) and the AAC makes more money. Also, the BE retains all tier3 rights, while the AAC gives some back to UConn ($1-2m worth a year).
The consider the exit fee UConn would have to pay.

The Big East contract pays each school 5m per year.

 

[upstater]

There are plenty of legitimate reasons to be against this proposal, the fear of the P5 breaking off from the NCAA is not one them.

That is a fear that only seems to exists in the Boneyard.

It's even been mentioned as a possibility by ADs. You think they're going to leave $1b+ lying on the table? Divide by 65 schools.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

P5 schools get $30-40m to subsidize their programs.

Dropping to the MAC, or dropping to D1AA or whatever it's called, you still incur a $10m loss for football. But with no money coming in.

The BE schools get $3.8m.

They will soon be isolated by the P5, who want out of the NCAA so they can keep that $1B soon to be $1.5B contract a year to themselves.

When that happens, the non-football schools will be dwarfed and destroyed by the revenue disparity. Good luck.

You and other posters keep predicting a split in the future as if that helps your case. Why are we investing in football at all if there will be a split?

 

[Guapo]

It's even been mentioned as a possibility by ADs. You think they're going to leave $1b+ lying on the table? Divide by 65 schools.

Source?

Also, do you understand how complicated and expensive it would be too?

Using the same logical leaps that I believe you're using to arrive at this conclusion, I could make just as reasonable of an argument that football will cease to exists in a few decades and this point will be moot.

 

[Guapo]

It's even been mentioned as a possibility by ADs. You think they're going to leave $1b+ lying on the table? Divide by 65 schools.

Also, you mentioning AD's opinions on the matter represents a profound misunderstanding of how higher ed and, with it, college athletics work.

AD's would mean nothing in the senerio you are describing,

 

[upstater]

The Big East contract pays each school 5m per year.

No, they pocket roughly $40m a year from the deal. Take out the conference's office fee and it is $3.8m per team.

The AAC averages $1.8m per team from TV, but UConn gets $1-2m for SNY money, and there's also the football money.

The G5 split $82 million. But not equally. The AAC gets the lion's share of the $16m performance pool that is also distributed according to conference strength. UCF then gets $1.5m off the top. Each conference gets $13.2m. Then for the performance pool each conference gets roughly $3.2m, but for the top conference they get closer to $5m. The AAC this year gets $18.2m, $1.5m to UCF, and then rest is split among the football schools. So $1.4m to UConn.

Add it all up: $1.8m, $1m SNY, $1.4m football, and UConn gets $4.2m, which is higher than the BE's $3.8m, not to mention the exit fees UConn would incur by leaving for the BE.

 

[upstater]

Source?

Also, do you understand how complicated and expensive it would be too?

Using the same logical leaps that I believe you're using to arrive at this conclusion, I could make just as reasonable of an argument that football will cease to exists in a few decades and this point will be moot.

Expensive to do what?

There are dozens of articles out there: Power 5 vs. Group of 5: College football's split decision

Try this one too: https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...membership-power-conferences-img-iaf/1749365/

 

[Stainmaster]

There are plenty of legitimate reasons to be against this proposal, the fear of the P5 breaking off from the NCAA is not one them.

That is a fear that only seems to exists in the Boneyard.

It’s happening. And we will take no pleasure in saying we told you so.

 

[upstater]

You and other posters keep predicting a split in the future as if that helps your case. Why are we investing in football at all if there will be a split?

To join the B12 when it splits.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

It’s happening. And we will take no pleasure in saying we told you so.

How can people be this dense? They already have their own governing body in the P5. They already have taken all the Playoff Money. They already make $50x times what most schools make.

The idea that they're going to continue to split up the March Madness pie forever is absurd. So what? Northern Iowa can afford to pay NCAA referees in a soccer game against Illinois State?

They'll play in March Madness, until it suits them not to. Just as they had no problem doing it in football.

The P5 pretty much has representation in every state in America, so not like they have to worry about congress and with the money they'll have from the Playoff, TV Deals/Networks, and March Madness they'll be able to pay their own referees.

I envision the collapse/de-emphasis of the majority college sports in general in our lifetimes aside from the absolute top levels.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

To join the B12 when it splits.

Our only hope at this point. Oklahoma/TX Split and we join the leftovers.

 

[Guapo]

Expensive to do what?

There are dozens of articles out there: Power 5 vs. Group of 5: College football's

Expensive to do what?

There are dozens of articles out there: [URL='http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/news/power-5-conferences-autonomy-ncaa-group-of-5-nick-saban-mike-slive-division-iv-split/1l51s8k6rrjvi1gph46mditvr8']Power 5 vs. Group of 5: College football's split decision

split decision[/URL]

There is nothing in any of these articles from anyone that matters.

Coaches and AD's do not matter in a decision such as this.

I could see football breaking away to for a new "super D-1" within the context of the NCAA, but they are not going to form their own separate regulatory body and I suspect they would not hold their own basketball tournament either.

Do you understand the number of lawsuits, not to mention other legal maneuvering that would need to occur in order for this to happen?

Do you understand the political response on both a national and, especially, local level that would happen?

I believe the NCAA has an anti-trust exemption, not the individual schools.

Ok, so now we also have to get into how higher-ed works. There are so many schools that are extreamly interconnected in research and funding etc. that transcend the G5/P5 split.

There is a zero percent chance that college presidents (who would be the ones making this decision, not AD's and certainly not coaches) would risk fraying those relationships and the funding that is provided to them on both a local and national level (which dwarfs athletic revenue) in order to pursue a full split.

 

[Guapo]

How can people be this dense? They already have their own governing body in the P5. They already have taken all the Playoff Money. They already make $50x times what most schools make.

The idea that they're going to continue to split up the March Madness pie forever is absurd. So what? Northern Iowa can afford to pay NCAA referees in a soccer game against Illinois State?

They'll play in March Madness, until it suits them not to. Just as they had no problem doing it in football.

The P5 pretty much has representation in every state in America, so not like they have to worry about congress and with the money they'll have from the Playoff, TV Deals/Networks, and March Madness they'll be able to pay their own referees.

I envision the collapse/de-emphasis of the majority college sports in general in our lifetimes aside from the absolute top levels.

You do know most states aren't like CT with only one "big-time" athletic program, right?

Take Ohio. There's Ohio State, but also UC with a ton of alum, Xavier, Dayton and all those MAC schools who not only have tons of alum who vote, but also have tons of alum in positions of power.