7 Seed is a blessing

[Jerry1714]

Seeds mean little, it is all about match ups.

St. Joes will be tough and we will need to play well to win, but I would rather face Nova in the next round then MSU or Iowa State like we would if we were the 5 or 6.

The seed will undoubtedly put a chip on their shoulders and I think we come out on fire.

Bazz knows this is it, I am excited, and I think we got a run in us, a big one.

 

[whaler11]

I don't get what all the complaining is about.

To get the elite 8 if seeds hold:

VCU is a 5. Austin, UCLA, Florida

Oklahoma is a 5. NDSU, SDSU Arizona

St Louis is a 5. NCSU or XU, Ville and Wichita.

You'd trade St Joes, Nova Iowa State for ANY one of the roads those three 5 seeds have?

Seeding concerns are for teams who want to win a game or two. If you care about making a run it's about matchups.

If anyone would really be happier with a 5 seed and those matchups over a 7 and what UConn has... really?

 

[whaler11]

The dirty secret of the tournament is that 6 and 7 seeds are better than 4 and 5 seeds and 10 seeds are better than 8 and 9 seeds. I'd rather be an 11 than an 8 most years.

The constant complaining about Louisville is laughable. Louisville didn't get screwed. Wichita State did.

 

[sparky]

We are in a good slot. We can and will be St Joe, and the Nova game will certainly test our inside game. We need to board to win that game.

 

[UCweCONN]

It's not the seeding and resulting matchups I have a problem with, it's the selection committee's favoritism, blindness, and blatant disrespect for both UCONN and our history and the AAC as a conference in general.

 

[huskyjawz]

The dirty secret of the tournament is that 6 and 7 seeds are better than 4 and 5 seeds and 10 seeds are better than 8 and 9 seeds. I'd rather be an 11 than an 8 most years.

The constant complaining about Louisville is laughable. Louisville didn't get screwed. Wichita State did.

I agree.

It all depends if you want a better matchup in the first two rounds, or a better matchup in the sweet sixteen game.

You're going to have to go through a 1 or 2 to get to the final four from the elite eight game, regardless, but if you are looking to get to that elite 8 game, in the sweet sixteen game, the 7 gets the 3, and the six gets the 2, while the 5 gets the 1, which is what you are really trying to avoid.

 

[whaler11]

No one's history should matter. You should be seeded based on your resume.

 

[UCweCONN]

No one's history should matter. You should be seeded based on your resume.

......unless you're Duke.

 

[whaler11]

.unless you're Duke.

I said should. I also hate the pod system and would eliminate it. But the tourney isn't set up for fairness - it's set up for $.

 

[CTBasketball]

Wichita St. got screwed. The committee head said, "Never does the committee make paths any harder for a specific team." Well they tried as hard as possible to give Wichita St. the toughest road.

But I agree our 7 seed is a blessing. If an 8 seed Villanova can win the NCAA's, then so can a 7 seed UConn.

 

[FASTEDDY]

We are UCONN and that duckckin' dumb-_ss committee should show us some respect. We are UCONN and they shoudl treat us with the respect we deserve and have earned!

We're not some Providence turds!

 

[James]

We should tell how well we are going to perform going forward from this st joes game. I remember light bulbs going off all over the place vs bucknell.

 

[freescooter]

If you want to argue that we got a reasonably favorable match up, you might be right. But to argue that a 7 seed is good is borderline inane. A 7 seed means you have a real game in round 1 and a really tough game in round 2 unless you get lucky and the 15 pulls the upset. Even if you win Games 1 and 2, Game 3 against the 3 seed is no picnic either. When you consider that almost 90% of the Final four teams since the tournament went to 64 were seeded 3 or higher, you get that playing the 2 and 3 aren't walk overs. Even if you end up playing the 6, its a tough game. In the opening round the 7 seed wins 60% of the time. That's the second closest split after the 8-9 game which the 8 wins only 51% of the time. The 5-12 game which is legend for upsets goes to the 5 78% of the time. the other data point is that 7 seeds rarely (only 27% of the time) get out of the first weekend. Oddly, 10s have a much higher liklihood of advancing. They win 45% of their 2nd round games. So while we might have drawn a decent match up for a 7-10 game and even in the 2nd round, the odds don't really favor it if the seeding is anywhere near accurate.

 

[Hume]

If you want to argue that we got a reasonably favorable match up, you might be right. But to argue that a 7 seed is good is borderline inane. A 7 seed means you have a real game in round 1 and a really tough game in round 2 unless you get lucky and the 15 pulls the upset. Even if you win Games 1 and 2, Game 3 against the 3 seed is no picnic either. When you consider that almost 90% of the Final four teams since the tournament went to 64 were seeded 3 or higher, you get that playing the 2 and 3 aren't walk overs. Even if you end up playing the 6, its a tough game. In the opening round the 7 seed wins 60% of the time. That's the second closest split after the 8-9 game which the 8 wins only 51% of the time. The 5-12 game which is legend for upsets goes to the 5 78% of the time. the other data point is that 7 seeds rarely (only 27% of the time) get out of the first weekend. Oddly, 10s have a much higher liklihood of advancing. They win 45% of their 2nd round games. So while we might have drawn a decent match up for a 7-10 game and even in the 2nd round, the odds don't really favor it if the seeding is anywhere near accurate.

That is really some bad use of statistics. First lets address the stats you use for 7's and 10's. You mention that the 7 gets out of the first weekend 27% of the time. Then you mention that oddly 10's have a much higher likelihood of advancing as they won 45% of their second round games. However, what you forgot to mention is that the 10's only play in those second games 40% of the time. That means if they win 45% of their second round games, which only occurs 40% of the time they would get past the first weekend 18% of the time which is not better then the 7's 27% of the time. The second problem I have with your post is you are using general statistics across the board, while we are looking at the actual matchups. If we were the 5 to get to the sweet 16 we would have to go through either Michigan State, Louisville, UCLA or San Diego State. Which of those teams would you prefer to face over Villanova? Then if you did beat the 4, to get to the elite 8 your next choice would be the number 1 seed, versus in our case we would be playing the 3 seed. So looking at the teams we are playing I think we were much better off getting the 7 where we did rather then a 5. Our chances of making the sweet 16 improved by our seeding over a 5 seed.

 

[freescooter]

You are ignoring that you only have a 60% chance of winning game 1. Your odds of getting to the sweet 16 are only around 16-17%. Of course every tourney is different but a 7 seed is not usually a great one.

 

[Jerry1714]

You are ignoring that you only have a 60% chance of winning game 1. Your odds of getting to the sweet 16 are only around 16-17%. Of course every tourney is different but a 7 seed is not usually a great one.

I guess you missed the whole matchup thing.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

All things considered, our matchups could play out nicely.

What concerns me is the precedent that's being set with regards to the AAC and future seeding and even inclusion into the NCAAT.

St. Joe's could easily knock us off as well as Nova. If we can get to the garden though? All bets are off...I love our chances against anyone there with a house full of UConn fans.

 

[Fishy]

The seven seed is not a blessing - St. Joseph's is exactly the kind of team that can give us problems.

They're loaded with seniors, their front court is tougher than tough and they have a far, far more experienced head coach.

That combo has been lethal for us this season.

 

[whaler11]

Well if you aren't good enough to beat St Joe's there really isn't any way to seed a tournament favorably to you.

 

[Jerry1714]

The seven seed is not a blessing - St. Joseph's is exactly the kind of team that can give us problems.

They're loaded with seniors, their front court is tougher than tough and they have a far, far more experienced head coach.

That combo has been lethal for us this season.

Their seniors have not played in a single NCAA tournament game and they go 6 deep. We have more NCAA tournament experience and more depth and more talent at every position but one.

Martelli is not exactly Pitno or Izzo. Guy has missed the tournament the last 5 years and has not won a game in it in a decade.

Of course they can beat us, its one and done anything can happen, but we should win this game. We are the better team.

 

[Hume]

You are ignoring that you only have a 60% chance of winning game 1. Your odds of getting to the sweet 16 are only around 16-17%. Of course every tourney is different but a 7 seed is not usually a great one.

Actually I was using your figures. You stated that "the other data point is that 7 seeds rarely (only 27% of the time) get out of the first weekend." The 60% after the first game has no affect on that as to get out of the first weekend you have to win your first two games so that would indicate that only 27% by getting out of the first weekend won their second game. If you get out of the first weekend you are in the sweet 16, so by your figures the 7 gets to the sweet 16 27% of the time. I am not sure where you are getting the 16-17% from. If your 27% figure is accurate it appears that the 7 seed wins the second game at the same percentage as you reported the 10 seed to win 45% (60% x 45% = 27%).

 

[TyroneShoo]

Nova fan here. Villanova won by 30 on the road against St Joes earlier in the year. You ought to do enough to win that one. They have a scoring guard,Galloway, and a talented big guy Kanasevic (sp). He will be your problem. Have a feeling Boatwright will be a big one of theirs. Galloway will score. Napier will get his too. I think you guys win by 10.

 

[zls44]

The pod system is funny because if its really about compelling matchups- how come most of these arenas are totally empty for the round of 64?

 

[mauconnfan]

Their seniors have not played in a single NCAA tournament game and they go 6 deep. We have more NCAA tournament experience and more depth and more talent at every position but one.

Martelli is not exactly Pitno or Izzo. Guy has missed the tournament the last 5 years and has not won a game in it in a decade.

Of course they can beat us, its one and done anything can happen, but we should win this game. We are the better team.

Feisty Jerry, I like it. Everyone on the BY needs to be feisty going in……..it's UConn time - March/April………Just WIN

 

[tzznandrew]

Nova fan here. Villanova won by 30 on the road against St Joes earlier in the year. You ought to do enough to win that one. They have a scoring guard,Galloway, and a talented big guy Kanasevic (sp). He will be your problem. Have a feeling Boatwright will be a big one of theirs. Galloway will score. Napier will get his too. I think you guys win by 10.

Here's hoping we meet up in the second round. You guys were a fun team to watch all year, but I don't think your team poses the same match-up problems as a team like Louisville does, so I'd expect it to be a tough game throughout.

 

[UMass]

I agree with the Nova fan. UMass split with St. Joe's. They've got Galloway who will get his points and Kanasevic who might be a tough matchup down low. They also have Roberts and a freshman Bembry that can get hot, but if UConn plays like they did against Memphis ..it will be on to the Villanova game

 

[freescooter]

Actually I was using your figures. You stated that "the other data point is that 7 seeds rarely (only 27% of the time) get out of the first weekend." The 60% after the first game has no affect on that as to get out of the first weekend you have to win your first two games so that would indicate that only 27% by getting out of the first weekend won their second game. If you get out of the first weekend you are in the sweet 16, so by your figures the 7 gets to the sweet 16 27% of the time. I am not sure where you are getting the 16-17% from. If your 27% figure is accurate it appears that the 7 seed wins the second game at the same percentage as you reported the 10 seed to win 45% (60% x 45% = 27%).

Basically, 10s that get through game 1 have a much better chance of going to the Sweet 16. they win 40% of the time against the 2 and 45% of their round of 32 games. & seeds have a better chance of getting through to the round of 32, though not that great considering only 8 seeds win a lower percentage of their games, and 6 and 5 seeds win way more (high 70s-80%). But #7s only win 27% of their 2nd round games. My basic point in all this is that based on the historic results, being a 7 seed isn't a great place to be. It essentially means you have tough games from Day 1 and its much more likely that you'll lose if only because there are no Cal Polys or Texas southerns...

 

[Jerry1714]

Basically, 10s that get through game 1 have a much better chance of going to the Sweet 16. they win 40% of the time against the 2 and 45% of their round of 32 games. & seeds have a better chance of getting through to the round of 32, though not that great considering only 8 seeds win a lower percentage of their games, and 6 and 5 seeds win way more (high 70s-80%). But #7s only win 27% of their 2nd round games. My basic point in all this is that based on the historic results, being a 7 seed isn't a great place to be. It essentially means you have tough games from Day 1 and its much more likely that you'll lose if only because there are no Cal Polys or Texas southerns...

How did your math work out Free?

As I said seeds do not mean much, it is about match ups, the 7th seed in the East was a blessing.

Dallas here we come!