538: Current UConn team may be best ever but parity is coming

[dogged1]

This team has been able, especially by heroic effort from Gabby, to compensate for their lack of a true center and power forward. They have greatly increased, and expanded, their personal skills and team play. They exceeded realistic expectations last year and are doing great this year.

They are not the most talented or complete team in all positions; but, they certainly have gotten the most out of what they have,

What is a greater accomplishment than that?

Right on the button, great post. Center and PF is their Achilles heel, they have compensated with ferocious defense and great passing and shooting.

 

[dogged1]

On schedule.

One day.. a UConn WBB fan will die and on their tombstone it’s going to say, in all caps: “IN 2017, SOUTH CAROLINA ONLY WON THE TITLE BECAUSE UCONN LOST IN THE SEMIFINALS!!!!!!!”..

The years of anguish and heartbreak over SC winning that title was too much to bear and had finally caught up with him or her.

And one day a Gamecock's fan tombstone may read.....

Here I lie broken hearted
An SC fan, now departed
Our NC deemed a twist of fate
The Boneyard would not validate

 

[Gamecockfan77]

And one day a Gamecock's fan tombstone may read.....

Here I lie broken hearted
An SC fan, now departed
Our NC deemed a twist of fate
The Boneyard would not validate

I laughed.

 

[cbraarj]

If this team doesnt win it all! There will be no discussion!

 

[Gus Mahler]

That 1995 team would get obliterated.

The quality of athlete and what a stewart could do and how the modern girl shoots the three would would overmatch the 1995 athlete.

Stewie's sophomore year (13-14) would be a fun matchup to watch against the 95 team.

Stewie vs. Lobo
Dolson vs. Wolters
MoJeff vs. Rizzoti
KML vs. Jamelle
Hartley vs. Sales

I'd pay to see that one.

 

[JustinesGuy]

Stewie's sophomore year (13-14) would be a fun matchup to watch against the 95 team.

Stewie vs. Lobo
Dolson vs. Wolters
MoJeff vs. Rizzoti
KML vs. Jamelle
Hartley vs. Sales

I'd pay to see that one.

Respectfully, 2014 would win probably big. The pace of play would have given those teams fits. MOJeff as a soph was very good she might not of had the jumper as a jr and sr version would have but she would still have a match up nightmare.
A Sr Dolson in senior shape would have an edge of Wolters.
Stewie would dominate Lobo on offense while I do think lobo would get hers on offense but the evolution of the athlete Stewie was in 2014 would give Lobo and 1995 Uconn fits. There would simply be no answer for Stewie.

Just to play it out, Sales would hold her own or even best hartley. Im not the biggest Hartley guy( no offense moderators).
If KML is hot from three Jamelle would not be able to stop her. Although Jamelle could out tough KML. That one may be a wash.

2014 team by 12

 

[Mister2]

After some 50+ posts, I'm surprised that not a single poster has challenged/commented on the methodology 835 used to arrive at its conclusion. The unique aspect of the 538 site is that it doesn't just advance an opinion (everyone has an opinion); it arrives at its conclusions about everything based on some specific quantitative modeling. To disagree with 538's conclusions, one needs to challenge its underlying methodology.

In this particular case, however, 538 is not using its own modeling, but rather relying on the results of another rating site Her Hoop Stats. Rating sites are a dime a dozen, just how credible is Herhoopstats?

Out of curiosity, I dug up how UCONN has been rated over the last 20 years by Massey--certainly a reputable and widely cited rating site. Here is its rank order:

2002 3.86
2014 3.55
2016 3.51
2000 3.49
2010 3.47
2009 3.33
2015 3.24
2018 3.04 (will change depending on the NCAA tournament matches)
2013 3.04
2011 2.93
2017 2.91
2012 2.90
2003 2.81
2008 2.79
2001 2.77
2004 2.66
2006 2.54
2007 2.53
2005 2.33
1998 2.33
1999 2.07

Massey's rank order is certainly more in line with one's intuition of the relative "greatness" of UCONN teams over the years. I think Herhoopstats's methodology (schedule-adjusted offense and defense efficiencies) is much too narrow to produce a credible rank order.

 

[Los24]

Is it worse to be down 10 to top-5 Notre Dame or even after a half with non-ranked Dayton as the 2015 team was?

And if memory serves correct going into the 4th carried just single digit leads in a few games like ND and Maryland?

That said, again this is a premature conversation until the NC is in hand.

 

[DefenseBB]

In looking at the chart, I had to check twice as ND was more elite DEFENSIVELY than offensively (#4 so still really good of course) which is still odd to me but maybe MM’s zone is working well.

 

[SCGamecock]

And one day a Gamecock's fan tombstone may read.....

Here I lie broken hearted
An SC fan, now departed
Our NC deemed a twist of fate
The Boneyard would not validate

A poem! Really?!

You win.

 

[JS]

A poem! Really?!

Pretty good one, too.

No doggerel from dogged1.

 

[CL82]

You have to remember one thing once you retire and stop playing and hit your 40's it's probably not going to be such a pretty product. I just turned 40 and I cannot do what I did in the field house playing all day. IDK. I'd still watch the game though!!!

It's like they turned up the gravity. All of sudden you can't elevate at all.

 

[CL82]

Stewie's sophomore year (13-14) would be a fun matchup to watch against the 95 team.

Stewie vs. Lobo (Stewie's too much to handle even for Rebecca)
Dolson vs. Wolters (the All American takes it)
MoJeff vs. Rizzoti (speed over toughness)
KML vs. Jamelle (if she lived)
Hartley vs. Sales (Nod goes to Precious)

I'd pay to see that one.

 

[formerlurker]

I'm still a Lurker on this board but where I come from you need to win a ring to even be considered the best UCONN WBB team ever. I didn't even read the article and I hope the team didn't either. Go out, do what you do best and bring home the hardware. That's where the discussion begins. As far as best player of all time? Someone else has to win 4 rings in 4 years to change my vote. And it might even take someone winning 5 straight

 

[Gus Mahler]

Thanks for your reply. It's fun to think about.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of your selections, but do recall that Dolson was a two-time All-American. Not POY, but pretty good nonetheless.

 

[JustinesGuy]

It's like they turned up the gravity. All of sudden you can't elevate at all.

I mean I'm holding on for dear life. I run three miles every other day, constantly do P90x 3, gym twice a week and I still cant be 24 again! Sore back, neck, tired ha.
Still need to keep up the work outs for Justine ha

 

[scubadog]

2015-16 Gabby, Nurse, KLS, Collier + Stewie, Tuck and Mo

2017-18 Gabby, Nurse, KLS, Collier + Azura and Crystal

I'll take 2015-16 any day. I don't think that team had a single game that was close. They won every game easily by double digits. The 2017-18 team is undefeated, but has struggled at times.

I think this team is slightly better than the 2014- 2015 team. That team was slow defensively and thin up front. Nurse was a freshman. I like the athleticism and quickness of KLS, Gabby, Collier and Z better than Stewart as a junior, the methodical Tuck and the slow , sharpshooting KML.

 

[dogged1]

A poem! Really?!

You win.

I wouldn't have called it a poem, just an Irishman's twisted sense of humor. I was pretty sure you southern boys would take it for good natured ribbing.

Only slightly more serious comment; you won it all, enjoy it. Someone on the boneyard gives you **** about not beating Uconn, you just ask them: Hey, we were there for the final game, where were you?

 

[toadfoot]

Geno's take exactly, scubadog. Coach says this team is an improvement over last year's for the very reasons you cite, plus that this group is more experienced.
As for the parity business, I don't object to more and better competition. I am not, however, one of the converts to "the better team won last year." The better team LOST last year; it was a fluke, MissSt was more than a 20-point underdog; UConn was poised to win but, as Geno has said repeatedly, played poorly. As for SC winning the NC, they did because the Huskies were not in the NC game. The Gamecocks have never even come close to beating UConn on their best day.

Last year’s loss was the “perfect storm”. A combination of a good, but not great, opponent, one of UConn’s worst games, perhaps their very worst, of the year and officiating that rewarded play that impeded freedom of movement.

 

[scubadog]

Last year’s loss was the “perfect storm”. A combination of a good, but not great, opponent, one of UConn’s worst games, perhaps their very worst, of the year and officiating that rewarded play that impeded freedom of movement.

And let's not forget the ridiculous statements made by Doris Burke . She stated that if " someone didn't beat UConn " last season that the Huskies could easily win 200 in a row. When she made that statement, I just cringed. I'm sure Doris scared the " you know what " out of every single UConn hater in the country ! And let's not forget the horrible officiating crew of Lisa Jones, Maj Forsberg and Jesse Dickerson .

 

[RockyMTblue2]

538 does an interactive bracket for dummies video and also talks a couple of other key metrics in this video.

Can Anyone Knock UConn Out This Year?

 

[scubadog]

None of the so called experts want to tell you that UConn is probably the only team in wcbb that is improved over last season . For starters Miss. St. got huge minutes from Okorie, Dillingham ( their best defensive player), and Richardson. They are much thinner this season. Baylor graduated Cave, Jones , Davis and Prince. Much thinner too. But, they'll tell over and over how thin the Husky bench is. Same old bologna !

 

[Sluconn Husky]

And let's not forget the ridiculous statements made by Doris Burke . She stated that if " someone didn't beat UConn " last season that the Huskies could easily win 200 in a row.

Pretty sure it was Kara Lawson who said they might win 200 in a row had they won their last two of last season. Unless Burke said it too.

 

[Bronx23]

Very good team, far from best ever. When ranking UCONN teams, I’d put them behind 2014-2016, 2002, 2009 and 2010. Probably about on par with last year’s team or 2000. Last year’s squad took a little bit to get going and had hiccups along the way, but they were darn good. Not too dissimilar from this year’s team.

I agree they are nowhere near the best team at U Conn.
I think they are significantly better than last years team especially in the manner they are set up role wise and size wise. We only lost Saniya who had a wonderful senior year but was not a true point guard. CD is one of the 5 best point guards in the country and helps set up and control the offense. As great a job as Gabby & Pheesa did defensively and rebounding wise, they can't add or do what a very skilled, talented and mobile big like AZ can.
With those two changes alone the MS game would not have been close.
So yes they are a very good, talented, balanced and prepared team (I think and hope) they are not the best.
Bronx23

 

[the Q]

Even if 538 is right. All it probably means is that this crazy incredible dominance ends when geno retires.