24-25 Torvik Projections | The Boneyard

24-25 Torvik Projections

Eh. It's another computer model like Kenpom. Torvik himself probably thinks that seems low but if that's what his model says, there you go. Torvik is a great site though. Definitely worth checking out once he has the full numbers up for 2025. I'm guessing it's hard to adequately account for the roster changes. Tons of production left. Lots of freshmen and transfers, so it's tough to slot them in properly.
 
tried to find the model but don't see much of anything. i'd venture to guess that there's a lot of normalized noise in the usage patterns, and also a bifurcated model choice between recruits and returnees in that recruits are valued by expected value of a given recruit ranking, while returnees are evaluated on past college production.

this means that for a team that is reliant on returning freshmen who did not get much run last season/didn't produce much, they are being evaluated on that sample and not on their recruit rankings. this can be seen by this model giving uconn the highest "talent" but low production and minutes from those returnees.

this is just a case of uconn falling through the cracks of a model designed to approximate the normal college team in terms of progression and development. wouldn't worry too much about it.
 
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Poe said:
Garbage in, garbage out
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It literally looks like he took a spreadsheet with a whole bunch of data points from past years. Inputted this into the ChatGPT context window. And, asked ChatGPT To come up with a ranking, records, etc.

This, folks, is called AI Hallucinations!
 
B1GEast said:
I have never heard of this guy. Supposedly he influences a lot of writers and when he updated his projections, people made a lot criticism. UConn at number 12.

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Odd. If you sort by "Projected Effective Talent", UConn is #1 and in that they're +2.8 over second place. No bigger gap in the entire list.

Add that talent to the best coaching staff in America and you... end up #12 ? Huh ?
 
He ranked us third last year in the preseason, which was one of the highest I saw.

He tweaked things this year he said on Twitter. From reading into his comments, he may have gone from just estimated usage plus offensive rating to a BPM-based player projection model. As @awy says, this is likely underrating our sophomores... hopefully at least. I'm sure the recent years program strength weight is pulling us back up, so the projected production has to be quite low, which as noted is at odds with our talent rating.
 
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DRBackup said:
Odd. If you sort by "Projected Effective Talent", UConn is #1 and in that they're +2.8 over second place. No bigger gap in the entire list.

Add that talent to the best coaching staff in America and you... end up #12 ? Huh ?
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I would bet some conference-related projected strength of schedule rating bring us down. People will never believe in the Big East.
 
Show me his preseason top-10 for each of the two previous seasons.
 
B1GEast said:
I have never heard of this guy. Supposedly he influences a lot of writers and when he updated his projections, people made a lot criticism. UConn at number 12.

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I'm curious. You've been on here since 2011 and have almost 11,000 posts and you've never heard of Bart Torvik? Seems almost impossible. Do you know who Ken Pomeroy is? Similar type stuff. Metrics based projections. There seem to be more of these popping up but those are 2 that are popular and been around a long time.
 
HooperScooper said:
I'm curious. You've been on here since 2011 and have almost 11,000 posts and you've never heard of Bart Torvik? Seems almost impossible. Do you know who Ken Pomeroy is? Similar type stuff. Metrics based projections. There seem to be more of these popping up but those are 2 that are popular and been around a long time.
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Never heard of Bart. Kenpom is the standard, but surprisingly until I saw a YouTube post yesterday that was the first time Torvik ever registered.
 
awy said:
tried to find the model but don't see much of anything. i'd venture to guess that there's a lot of normalized noise in the usage patterns, and also a bifurcated model choice between recruits and returnees in that recruits are valued by expected value of a given recruit ranking, while returnees are evaluated on past college production.

this means that for a team that is reliant on returning freshmen who did not get much run last season/didn't produce much, they are being evaluated on that sample and not on their recruit rankings. this can be seen by this model giving uconn the highest "talent" but low production and minutes from those returnees.

this is just a case of uconn falling through the cracks of a model designed to approximate the normal college team in terms of progression and development. wouldn't worry too much about it.
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This is spot on - I don’t think a Torvik formula can measure players that haven’t played all that much at the college level, or measure sum of all parts. His formula takes a lot historical data into account, fairly as what other realistic way is there to measure? UConn’s potential is as much art as science given their formula around development and next man up. Really not worth much right now.
 
basically if you take the #1 uconn ranking in talent and try to square it with the projected production of those players, you must also believe that the uconn staff is terrible at developing players and all of the sophomores will be unplayably bad. to patch this error a bit can do a mixed weight of high school projection (recruit ranking) and college production, but doing so would still leave out team level fixed effects from coaching staff. basically by omitting coaching and really the different level of intra-team competition/replacement level production, you leave omitted heterogeneity unaccounted for.
 
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B1GEast said:
Never heard of Bart. Kenpom is the standard, but surprisingly until I saw a YouTube post yesterday that was the first time Torvik ever registered.
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So after your reply I was thinking well maybe he's not mentioned on here as much as I thought. So I searched for the word "Torvik" on here. It came up 155 separate times, not including this thread, in the last 12 months.
 
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For those here that are just new to Torvik, the whole shtick is that all the data is sortable.

Super fun tool once the season hits stride, but through the first month or so of the season the numbers are a little wonky from pre-season bias.

For now, the stats for returning minutes, exp and talent are far more indicitave than the Adj O and D numbers which have a really hard time accounting for jumps in production for guys like Solo and J Stew.

For fun: go to Torvik, and look at the rankings from 01/17/2024 - the end of season.
 
Where Torvik (and all) projection models fall down is that they are kinda trying to normalize all improvement across all teams... and as we know this is a very lumpy fact of people - they all improve at different rates and much of it make zero sense until actual production and efficiency stats from real games are introduced. For example see Torviks expected stats, which um, make no sense. Jaylin at 1.8ppg? ok! Samson major regression from last year? ok! Solo averagin 6pts? uh, ok!

Screenshot 2024-07-09 at 8.40.09 AM.jpg

FWIW here's my closer projection of production ..

Starters:

PG: Hassan 20mpg, 7pts, 5 assists, 2 rebounds
SG: Solo, 25 mpg, 12 ppg, 3 assist, 3 rebounds
F: Jaylin, 20 mpg, 10 ppg, 5 rebound, 2 assists
F: Karaban 30 mpg, 18 ppg, 6 rebound, 2 assists
C: Tarris Reed 20 mpg, 8pts, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks

First G: Aidan Mahaney 20mpg, 10 pt, 3 assissts
First P: Samson 15 mpg, 7pt, 4 rebound
First W: Liam 20 mpg, 8 pt, 5 rebound
Second G: Nowell - 10mpg sparkplug/defense, 3 pt 3 assist
Everyone else - garbage time
 
He's projecting us 15 ppg worse on offense and 2 ppg worse on defense. I think the offense will be excellent. Potentially the shooting will be as good or better than last year. Impossible to believe Jaylin Stewart at only 2.6 ppg; I bet we have 5-6 double digit scorers again, not 3. I think most of us are more concerned about defense, having lost Clingan's rim protection and Castle's perimeter defense.
 
Based on the fact that we lost four starters, no one truly knows where this team should be ranked. What were we ranked in the preseason last year, 4th in our conference? And that was by the Big East coaches, who should have known better.
 
HooperScooper said:
So after your reply I was thinking well maybe he's not mentioned on here as much as I thought. So I searched for the word "Torvik" on here. It came up 155 separate times, not including this thread, in the last 12 months.
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Pardon me, but what is the big deal? Is your last name Torvik?
 
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