24-25 Torvik Projections

[TrueBlue22]

For those here that are just new to Torvik, the whole shtick is that all the data is sortable.

Super fun tool once the season hits stride, but through the first month or so of the season the numbers are a little wonky from pre-season bias.

For now, the stats for returning minutes, exp and talent are far more indicitave than the Adj O and D numbers which have a really hard time accounting for jumps in production for guys like Solo and J Stew.

For fun: go to Torvik, and look at the rankings from 01/17/2024 - the end of season.

 

[bmayuc]

Where Torvik (and all) projection models fall down is that they are kinda trying to normalize all improvement across all teams... and as we know this is a very lumpy fact of people - they all improve at different rates and much of it make zero sense until actual production and efficiency stats from real games are introduced. For example see Torviks expected stats, which um, make no sense. Jaylin at 1.8ppg? ok! Samson major regression from last year? ok! Solo averagin 6pts? uh, ok!

FWIW here's my closer projection of production ..

Starters:

PG: Hassan 20mpg, 7pts, 5 assists, 2 rebounds
SG: Solo, 25 mpg, 12 ppg, 3 assist, 3 rebounds
F: Jaylin, 20 mpg, 10 ppg, 5 rebound, 2 assists
F: Karaban 30 mpg, 18 ppg, 6 rebound, 2 assists
C: Tarris Reed 20 mpg, 8pts, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks

First G: Aidan Mahaney 20mpg, 10 pt, 3 assissts
First P: Samson 15 mpg, 7pt, 4 rebound
First W: Liam 20 mpg, 8 pt, 5 rebound
Second G: Nowell - 10mpg sparkplug/defense, 3 pt 3 assist
Everyone else - garbage time

 

[pj]

He's projecting us 15 ppg worse on offense and 2 ppg worse on defense. I think the offense will be excellent. Potentially the shooting will be as good or better than last year. Impossible to believe Jaylin Stewart at only 2.6 ppg; I bet we have 5-6 double digit scorers again, not 3. I think most of us are more concerned about defense, having lost Clingan's rim protection and Castle's perimeter defense.

 

[Palatine]

Based on the fact that we lost four starters, no one truly knows where this team should be ranked. What were we ranked in the preseason last year, 4th in our conference? And that was by the Big East coaches, who should have known better.

 

[gtcam]

So after your reply I was thinking well maybe he's not mentioned on here as much as I thought. So I searched for the word "Torvik" on here. It came up 155 separate times, not including this thread, in the last 12 months.

Pardon me, but what is the big deal? Is your last name Torvik?

 

[aburks41]

View attachment 102259

This is why the preseason model rating doesn't matter. Those projected PPG stats are just bad. Especially for Solo, Samson, and Stewart. Also doesn't even include Jayden Ross who has a legit shot at being a rotation player this year. The staff loves him

 

[Mr. French]

Pardon me, but what is the big deal? Is your last name Torvik?

He’s just commenting that on a college basketball board, posters who have followed closely for 13 years and have never heard of Torvik are interesting because it seems a fairly common topic of discussion for serious college basketball fans.

There’s no direct judgment it’s just interesting. I agree.

 

[temery]

He’s just commenting that on a college basketball board, posters who have followed closely for 13 years and have never heard of Torvik are interesting because it seems a fairly common topic of discussion for serious college basketball fans.

There’s no direct judgment it’s just interesting. I agree.

And what % of fans do you believe follow UConn bb close enough to have any idea who Torvik is and/or what he has to say?

I just did a search for "UConn basketball." "Torvik" wasn't found in the first 20 pages of results. So I guess you are right - only serious fans have any idea who or what a Torvik is.

 

[pj]

It's possible the #12 projection was based on the pre-McNeeley team. At the bottom of the UConn page, T-Page for Connecticut - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank, they have projected stats with no McNeeley.

 

[Mr. French]

And what % of fans do you believe follow UConn bb close enough to have any idea who Torvik is and/or what he has to say?

I just did a search for "UConn basketball." "Torvik" wasn't found in the first 20 pages of results. So I guess you are right - only serious fans have any idea who or what a Torvik is.

I think a lot of college basketball fans have at least heard of Torvik. It’s not as popular as KemPom but it’s not some unknown term.

You guys are getting more defensive than necessary, it is a college basketball term, and def not a casual term, but it’s also out there, in the lexicon.

That poster’s level of knowledge paired with never even hearing of Torvik WAS interesting. But definitely not a big deal.

 

[temery]

I think a lot of college basketball fans have at least heard of Torvik. It’s not as popular as KemPom but it’s not some unknown term.

You guys are getting more defensive than necessary, it is a college basketball term, and def not a casual term, but it’s also out there, in the lexicon.

That poster’s level of knowledge paired with never even hearing of Torvik WAS interesting. But definitely not a big deal.

Sorry, but no. You'd have to remind most fans who Torvik is for them to even remember they've ever heard the name.

I do agree most serious bb fans have heard of Torvik, but most bb fans aren't serious enough to care.

 

[Mr. French]

Sorry, but no. You'd have to remind most fans who Torvik is for them to even remember they've ever heard the name.

I do agree most serious bb fans have heard of Torvik, but most bb fans aren't serious enough to care.

Ok. There's really no way to prove this so definitively as to say "sorry, but no."

It's really however you define a "fan" I guess - but I'd say a good chunk of college basketball fans, but NOT the most casual fans, have at least heard the name Bart Torvik.

I'd guess a decent number of people passionate enough to post on a message board would have at LEAST heard it. But again, no big deal. I don't evaluate or analyze Torvik, but I've definitely heard the name and know the idea of what it is.

I don't care one way or the other, but I didn't think what Scooper said was wrong at all.

 

[awy]

this is just good bulletin board material, especially for the sophomores. hurley probably concerned that there's no disrespectful rankings out there and then this thing comes along.

 

[EBonz30]

I have never heard of this guy. Supposedly he influences a lot of writers and when he updated his projections, people made a lot criticism. UConn at number 12.

2024-25 Projections - - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

To have us as a better defensive team than offensive team seems strange- I believe this year’s roster seems to be more talented offensively than defensively.

I know everyone loves to talk about Clingan, but the size of our guards the last two years was a huge advantage on the defensive end as well- 6’6’, 6’6’, 6’5, 6’5, & 6’3’ on the wings/perimeter- serious length.

 

[mets1090]

Kenpom is the one everyone knows because it gets mentioned by far the most on TV. Torvik and Evan Miya are the other two that chronically online basketball fans know about.

The Boneyard has a subsection of fans who were online before advanced metrics were well known or existed at all, and they probably don't care much about any of that stuff and care more about traditional media (i.e. TV and reporters). I guess what I'm saying is if you were in your 20s when you found the Boneyard 25 years ago, you probably don't give a crap about who Torvik is lol.


Anyway, these models are going to be smoothing out year over year improvement, etc. Reed was statistically a pretty mid player on a bad team and if you assume he's going to get like 5% better then UConn is not a top 5 team.

A real human might feel confident saying Reed can be one of the best big men in the Big East after being coached by Hurley, but if he transferred to Georgetown we would not be projecting him as such. I doubt this model has any reliable way of capturing that sentiment/reality.

 

[Kitaman]

Perfect. Danny will use this.

Not sure that works anymore. He probably uses this:

 

[Waquoit]

It's all just fun with numbers.

 

[TerryBoyz]

Nobody has better models than Vegas

 

[Husky68]

Based on the fact that we lost four starters, no one truly knows where this team should be ranked. What were we ranked in the preseason last year, 4th in our conference? And that was by the Big East coaches, who should have known better.

If its hard to rank UConn, how do you rank Duke, isn't it almost a new team.

 

[TheChamps990411]

I have never heard of this guy. Supposedly he influences a lot of writers and when he updated his projections, people made a lot criticism. UConn at number 12.

2024-25 Projections - - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

I dont know if we will be the best team in the country but i am ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that there arent 11 teams in the country that are better.

 

[NowInStorrs]

Might want to get familiar with Torvik

x.com

x.com

 

[temery]

Might want to get familiar with Torvik

x.com

x.com

Might want to learn how to post a tweet.

 

[Waquoit]

Might want to get familiar with Torvik

Life's too short.

 

[auror]

WAB is great. Big inclusion. I figured they'd replace Sagarin. Now they're using most of the metrics I used in my bubble/seeding analysis averages last year.

 

[nomar]

Projected Effective Talent of 86.9, tops in the nation. Probably a fluffy stat, but nice to see we're 1.