2023 NBA Mock Draft Thread

[Ratso]

Wembanyama is set up to be a bust

from international footage, he’s too slow for the nba. i know they did the same thing about Luka

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Giannis and Gobert were both thought of as international prospects that will be projects. No one projected what Giannis would become.

I get that, but if everyone else knew the draft sucked, why didn’t someone take a flier on those two before they were picked?

My point is that every draft is overrated going into it. The only exception you could come up with in the last 20 years, the 2013 draft, was still a very overrated draft, despite some experts and GMs having concerns prior to draft night. That was the least overrated draft, and it was still badly overrated.

 

[UConn990411]

Read post 20 again. If you don’t understand what I am saying, move on. I can’t explain it any clearer.

If everyone disagrees with your point, chances are it isn’t everyone else who’s wrong.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Since 2010, I think a case could be made that GMs would get more value by trading their picks than holding them.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If everyone disagrees with your point, chances are it isn’t everyone else who’s wrong.

You don’t even know what you are arguing.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I would add one point. My issue with draft picks is that NBA scouts just don’t have enough data to assess top picks like they did 30 or 40 years ago. This makes lottery picks much less valuable than they were back then.

While I think the value of an early first round pick is much less than it was 40 or even 20 years ago, I think the later first round picks are more valuable, and second round picks are much more valuable than they were in the 80’s or 90’s.

Look at the top NBA player in each draft since 2010:

2010: Paul George (10)
2011: Kachin Leonard (15) or Jimmy Butler (30)
2012: Anthony Davis (1), but Khris Middleton (39) could win one or more more titles, while Davis may be done.
2013: Giannis Antetokounmpo (15)
2014: Joel Embiid (3) or Nikola Jokic (41)
2015: Devin Booker (13), Karl-Anthony Towns (1) has good stats, but Booker turned around one of the worst franchises in pro sports
2016: Tie with Ingram (2), Jaylen Brown (3), Jamal Murray (7), or Pascual Siakum (27), although Siakum is the only one with a title.
2017: Tie with 6 all stars - Tatum (3), Fox (5), Markkanan (7), Mitchell (13), Adebayo (14), and Allen (22)
2018 and after: too early to tell

Other than maybe Anthony Davis in 2012, NBA scouts got it wrong every single draft since 2010, and most years got it very wrong. But this year will be different?

 

[NEforceUConn]

Yipes. Easy on your ego.

 

[caw]

I would add one point. My issue with draft picks is that NBA scouts just don’t have enough data to assess top picks like they did 30 or 40 years ago. This makes lottery picks much less valuable than they were back then.

While I think the value of an early first round pick is much less than it was 40 or even 20 years ago, I think the later first round picks are more valuable, and second round picks are much more valuable than they were in the 80’s or 90’s.

Look at the top NBA player in each draft since 2010:

2010: Paul George (10)
2011: Kachin Leonard (15) or Jimmy Butler (30)
2012: Anthony Davis (1), but Khris Middleton (39) could win one or more more titles, while Davis may be done.
2013: Giannis Antetokounmpo (15)
2014: Joel Embiid (3) or Nikola Jokic (41)
2015: Devin Booker (13), Karl-Anthony Towns (1) has good stats, but Booker turned around one of the worst franchises in pro sports
2016: Tie with Ingram (2), Jaylen Brown (3), Jamal Murray (7), or Pascual Siakum (27), although Siakum is the only one with a title.
2017: Tie with 6 all stars - Tatum (3), Fox (5), Markkanan (7), Mitchell (13), Adebayo (14), and Allen (22)
2018 and after: too early to tell

Other than maybe Anthony Davis in 2012, NBA scouts got it wrong every single draft since 2010, and most years got it very wrong. But this year will be different?

Irving easily is on the same level as Leonard and Butler as a basketball player. His issues have been other.

Almost all the picks you mention are still lottery picks.

Only Middleton, Butler, Jokic, Siakum and Allen are outside the top 20. Three entered the NBA as relatively older players who improved considerably. One was from Europe, with Allen being the only young college player.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

You can’t ask a pre draft question and then talk about picks in hindsight. That’s not how that works.

Oh yes he can, and here, again, he does. It's one facet of his unique brand-building enterprise.

Whether things work that way or not isn't really on the menu, unless someone wants to bring it up. There are 1 or 2 other threads where applicable roll-slowing rebuttals wouldn't be out of line, but here, I'm just tossing in some unspecified cautions that I won't bother to argue.

Recall instead that his first comment in the thread was to vaguely damn Jordan Hawkins with faint praise, not personally but by jerking the thread into his chosen new direction and declaring this draft a smoldering dumpster fire. Hello, sunshine (not).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Irving easily is on the same level as Leonard and Butler as a basketball player. His issues have been other.

Almost all the picks you mention are still lottery picks.

Only Middleton, Butler, Jokic, Siakum and Allen are outside the top 20. Three entered the NBA as relatively older players who improved considerably. One was from Europe, with Allen being the only young college player.

Irving is not close to Butler and Leonard. That is its own thread.

If you stretch it to the Top 5 or 10 of the draft each year, you are never going to see the Top 5 picks dominate the list post 1999. On the other hand, if you go back to the 80’s or most of the 90’s, there were far fewer draft mistakes or late first and second round success stories. Scouts had a lot more data to work with back then because even the top players had a couple of years of college ball to assess.

If you look at most draft boards for this year, the players at the top have no college experience. That should be a red flag to scouts. They are actually rewarding draft candidates for not playing against the best young players in the world in college. Are the OT elite and Ignite players really that good, or have scouts just not seen their flaws yet?

Likewise, the track record of Europeans in the draft is all over the place. There are a lot of success stories, but they often come from late in the draft. Often, the highest Euro draft picks are simply the most hyped.

It is increasingly obvious that many NBA teams find the draft much less valuable than they used to. That is why you see so many massive pick dumps for older players like Paul George or James Harden. NBA teams are assessing the value of picks, and deciding that winning now is more important than a bunch of future picks, many of which will turn out to be busts. You didn’t see these kind of pick dumps nearly as often in the 80’s or 90’s. Picks were more valuable back then.

Maybe this draft will be like the 2017 and 2018 drafts, deep drafts that produce a lot of future NBA stars and starters. Or maybe it will be like the 2019 or 2013 drafts, with a handful of good players and a lot dreck. There is no way to have even a remotely accurate picture yet.

I do think Hawkins has an advantage coming out in a year where there are so many top candidates outside of college, because some GM is going to want to play it safe and draft the kid they know can play against top competition.

 

[UofCT]

I would add one point. My issue with draft picks is that NBA scouts just don’t have enough data to assess top picks like they did 30 or 40 years ago. This makes lottery picks much less valuable than they were back then.

While I think the value of an early first round pick is much less than it was 40 or even 20 years ago, I think the later first round picks are more valuable, and second round picks are much more valuable than they were in the 80’s or 90’s.

Look at the top NBA player in each draft since 2010:

2010: Paul George (10)
2011: Kachin Leonard (15) or Jimmy Butler (30)
2012: Anthony Davis (1), but Khris Middleton (39) could win one or more more titles, while Davis may be done.
2013: Giannis Antetokounmpo (15)
2014: Joel Embiid (3) or Nikola Jokic (41)
2015: Devin Booker (13), Karl-Anthony Towns (1) has good stats, but Booker turned around one of the worst franchises in pro sports
2016: Tie with Ingram (2), Jaylen Brown (3), Jamal Murray (7), or Pascual Siakum (27), although Siakum is the only one with a title.
2017: Tie with 6 all stars - Tatum (3), Fox (5), Markkanan (7), Mitchell (13), Adebayo (14), and Allen (22)
2018 and after: too early to tell

Other than maybe Anthony Davis in 2012, NBA scouts got it wrong every single draft since 2010, and most years got it very wrong. But this year will be different?

Lol lol nba scouts don’t have enough data lol lol.

 

[whosurdaddy2720]

Any chance at all we can get back on topic?

I hope these mock drafts are right. Hurley turning two good but not great prospects into lottery picks (Bouk and Hawk) should do wonders for recruiting. That's what true coaching and development are all about. I hope the public starts to take notice.

 

[Punkbo]

Any chance at all we can get back on topic?

I hope these mock drafts are right. Hurley turning two good but not great prospects into lottery picks (Bouk and Hawk) should do wonders for recruiting. That's what true coaching and development are all about. I hope the public starts to take notice.

Bouk and Hawk are great natural talents. While their development and draft position are certainly noteworthy, I’d highlight Tyrese Martin as a guy who developed from raw potential into an NBA draft pick under Hurley. That one was particularly special for me and shows the real value of playing for our coach.

 

[whosurdaddy2720]

Bouk and Hawk are great natural talents. While their development and draft position are certainly noteworthy, I’d highlight Tyrese Martin as a guy who developed from raw potential into an NBA draft pick under Hurley. That one was particularly special for me and shows the real value of playing for our coach.

Great point. Forgot all about Rese. Even more evidence for Hurley's/UConn's case.

 

[HuskyBaggins]

Please, post MORE paywall links that I have to use Archive.IS to decode. Thanks so much

 

[HuskyBaggins]

Yipes. Easy on your ego.

Yeah, you may be onto something with that one

 

[Huskyforlife]

Hawkins made the right call coming out this year. This draft is a smoldering dumpster fire. This could be the worst draft since 2013.

I swear someone has said this about every draft I’ve ever followed. Unless it’s comparable to the Anthony Bennett year, no draft should be considered a dumpster fire.

 

[auror]

I swear someone has said this about every draft I’ve ever followed. Unless it’s comparable to the Anthony Bennett year, no draft should be considered a dumpster fire.

Every year draft analysts say the draft stinks, and then about a month beforehand they say "well the top x after the top guy or 2 is bad, but actually it's pretty deep overall" Same thing every year.

 

[The Yakk]

Irving easily is on the same level as Leonard and Butler as a basketball player.

No. Way. On. Earth.

And his "issues have been other" count too. Teams draft players to win championships, not to win dribbling contests.

 

[caw]

No. Way. On. Earth.

And his "issues have been other" count too. Teams draft players to win championships, not to win dribbling contests.

The comment was in regards to his draft position, keep that in mind. So for championships:

Leonard - 1
Irving -1
Butler - 0

That’s what they got for the teams that drafted them.

Now if you want to argue Irving only won as the second best player with Lebron, I remind you they won in Cleveland. Cleveland. Leonard was won on a fantastic Spurs team and Butler…

I meant to ignore his other issues as they are in regard to things no GM in the NBA could forecast 7-10 years after he was drafted.

As a draft asset he has played on as high a level as Leonard and Butler in his first 5-7 years.

And if you want to tak about his issues he has played way more games than Leonard in his career. Let’s not forget Leonard’s issues, which were almost as bad as Irving. And Butlers issues in Minnesota. All three have had serious issues. Irving’s are more problematic to the larger society but you could argue Leonard and Butler were worse for their teams.

Heck I don’t even like Irving but the man could ball and him being picked first in the draft was a warranted pick, even in hindsight.

 

[Inyatkin]

The comment was in regards to his draft position, keep that in mind. So for championships:

Leonard - 1
Irving -1
Butler - 0

That’s what they got for the teams that drafted them.

Now if you want to argue Irving only won as the second best player with Lebron, I remind you they won in Cleveland. Cleveland. Leonard was won on a fantastic Spurs team and Butler…

I meant to ignore his other issues as they are in regard to things no GM in the NBA could forecast 7-10 years after he was drafted.

As a draft asset he has played on as high a level as Leonard and Butler in his first 5-7 years.

And if you want to tak about his issues he has played way more games than Leonard in his career. Let’s not forget Leonard’s issues, which were almost as bad as Irving. And Butlers issues in Minnesota. All three have had serious issues. Irving’s are more problematic to the larger society but you could argue Leonard and Butler were worse for their teams.

Heck I don’t even like Irving but the man could ball and him being picked first in the draft was a warranted pick, even in hindsight.

Did Kawhi's Toronto championship get wiped off the books or something?

 

[nomar]

If everyone disagrees with your point, chances are it isn’t everyone else who’s wrong.

"When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him."

--Jonathan Swift

 

[CL82]

Please, post MORE paywall links that I have to use Archive.IS to decode. Thanks so much

Oh, when you do that, can you post that link? Saves the rest of us a step.

 

[CL82]

"When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him."

--Jonathan Swift

 

[gsmooth]

The comment was in regards to his draft position, keep that in mind. So for championships:

Leonard - 1
Irving -1
Butler - 0

That’s what they got for the teams that drafted them.

Now if you want to argue Irving only won as the second best player with Lebron, I remind you they won in Cleveland. Cleveland. Leonard was won on a fantastic Spurs team and Butler…

I meant to ignore his other issues as they are in regard to things no GM in the NBA could forecast 7-10 years after he was drafted.

As a draft asset he has played on as high a level as Leonard and Butler in his first 5-7 years.

And if you want to tak about his issues he has played way more games than Leonard in his career. Let’s not forget Leonard’s issues, which were almost as bad as Irving. And Butlers issues in Minnesota. All three have had serious issues. Irving’s are more problematic to the larger society but you could argue Leonard and Butler were worse for their teams.

Heck I don’t even like Irving but the man could ball and him being picked first in the draft was a warranted pick, even in hindsight.

I believe Kawhi Leonard has 2 championships, but the rest of your post is correct.