OT: 2021 NBA Playoffs

[the Q]

All 3 of those guys were mostly horrible (esp defensively) when given a turn after the other guys had been horrible. Vogel was late to make adjustments and not good, but why the Lakers needed THREE stationary centers that cannot defend outside of the paint is beyond comprehension. The ongoing subplot that AD is a 4 has always been at least half crapola and helped undermine the Lakers this year and the Pels many years.

But if LeBron & AD get healthy the Lakers will be fine and contend, just not as prohibitive favorites anymore. Kuzcma is a trade piece, Horton-Tucker is coming along and they can add shooters on the cheap.

I've not idea who is going to come out of the West and that makes it as interesting as they Bucks-Nets which is definitely the de-facto championship (assuming Embid is compromised going forward) at this point.

No.

Lotta sleeping on the jazz who are the model for non coastal elite cities right now. Draft yo he two stars, with a defensive anchor, and surround them with shooters and depth.

They can matchup with basically anyone

 

[Psolo12]

All 3 of those guys were mostly horrible (esp defensively) when given a turn after the other guys had been horrible. Vogel was late to make adjustments and not good, but why the Lakers needed THREE stationary centers that cannot defend outside of the paint is beyond comprehension. The ongoing subplot that AD is a 4 has always been at least half crapola and helped undermine the Lakers this year and the Pels many years.

But if LeBron & AD get healthy the Lakers will be fine and contend, just not as prohibitive favorites anymore. Kuzcma is a trade piece, Horton-Tucker is coming along and they can add shooters on the cheap.

I've not idea who is going to come out of the West and that makes it as interesting as they Bucks-Nets which is definitely the de-facto championship (assuming Embid is compromised going forward) at this point.

Agreed that roster construction was questionable at best.

 

[mauconnfan]

All is good with Lebron and the Lakers going home. Nothing else matters now in the playoffs in all reality but if asked for a rooting interest I'd have to say the Suns or Mavs. But again much like the Lakers, now anyone but the Nets at this point will be fine.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It’s not drummond’s fault the Lakers lost the series and it turned out not to be a good idea to give him a DNP in game six but the bottom line is he doesn’t help his teams win and his stats never mean anything. Great rebounder but to be honest he has never improved on any other part of his game and he’s overweight. His value is very low going forward.

I wasn't aware that Drummond's baskets and rebounds don't count.

20 years from now, when people look back on this era, they will be amazed at how much the coaches got wrong in interpreting the analytics. I have said it before, but the big difference between basketball vs. baseball and football when it comes to analytics is that the events in basketball are not independent of the events that occurred immediately before. Therefore, the events in basketball are not independent variables, but rather very dependent on a whole range of other events that just occurred and are occurring at that moment.

Football and baseball stop and reset between each play. Basketball, for the most part, does not. Basketball also has fewer rules where everyone has to be on the field of play, and the transition from offense to defense is instant. All of these factors mean that the statistical regressions currently being done are only about halfway as sophisticated as they need to be. And as a result, most coaches are still getting it very wrong.

Just because more 3's are generally a good thing doesn't mean that more 3 point shooters are a good thing. Teams should be working an inside/out game to get their best 3 point shooters more 3 point shots. Instead, teams stockpile undersized forwards and guards because their 3 point shooting percentages are a tiny bit higher, and then playing small lineups for extended periods of time. This only works if the other team plays exactly the same style. Pounding the ball inside to centers will get more high quality shots inside, more free throw attempts, more offensive rebounds, and better 3 point shots for the shooters on the court. It will also result in better rim protection, more defensive rebounds, and better defense overall. Analytics has not figured this out yet, but it will.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

All is good with Lebron and the Lakers going home. Nothing else matters now in the playoffs in all reality but if asked for a rooting interest I'd have to say the Suns or Mavs. But again much like the Lakers, now anyone but the Nets at this point will be fine.

If the Bucks don't win the title this season, they are never winning it.

Competition:

East:

76ers - Embiid at less than 100% = no chance of even making the NBA Finals.
Hawks - nice little team that may upset the 76ers with Embiid's issues, but no chance of winning it all.
Nets - collection of aging superstars and a terrible team defensively.


West:

Jazz - probably the best team left, but does anyone thing they are championship caliber?
Suns - 2/3's of the key players are infants, and Paul's bad shoulder limits how far they can go.
Nuggets - With Murray, might be the favorite. Without him, just a good solid team that isn't great.
Mavericks/Clippers - Clippers are still a tough team in a 7 game series. Mavericks are a one man show.

 

[Scoe]

Lebron is going fishing

 

[Dogdeacon]

I wasn't aware that Drummond's baskets and rebounds don't count.

20 years from now, when people look back on this era, they will be amazed at how much the coaches got wrong in interpreting the analytics. I have said it before, but the big difference between basketball vs. baseball and football when it comes to analytics is that the events in basketball are not independent of the events that occurred immediately before. Therefore, the events in basketball are not independent variables, but rather very dependent on a whole range of other events that just occurred and are occurring at that moment.

Football and baseball stop and reset between each play. Basketball, for the most part, does not. Basketball also has fewer rules where everyone has to be on the field of play, and the transition from offense to defense is instant. All of these factors mean that the statistical regressions currently being done are only about halfway as sophisticated as they need to be. And as a result, most coaches are still getting it very wrong.

Just because more 3's are generally a good thing doesn't mean that more 3 point shooters are a good thing. Teams should be working an inside/out game to get their best 3 point shooters more 3 point shots. Instead, teams stockpile undersized forwards and guards because their 3 point shooting percentages are a tiny bit higher, and then playing small lineups for extended periods of time. This only works if the other team plays exactly the same style. Pounding the ball inside to centers will get more high quality shots inside, more free throw attempts, more offensive rebounds, and better 3 point shots for the shooters on the court. It will also result in better rim protection, more defensive rebounds, and better defense overall. Analytics has not figured this out yet, but it will.

So most of the people with actual full-time jobs, careers in professional sports are wrong and you as a fan have analyzed the problem and determined a better course? The cameras (sportvu) and analytics like Second Spectrum are showing them a lot of data - have you reviewed or subscribed?

The game is certainly evolving and I don't love it. Offensive rebounding has proven to be far less valuable than protecting against layups, though its a bummer and not true 100% of time, I get it. Likewise in the playoffs we continually see defending pick-n-rolls an absolute premium as every team needs to be able to switch because shooters have become that good. Add to that the lack of emphasis on post development and post skills = every player from 5'8" to 7'2" wants to shoot threes. So you can try playing Drummond and Harrell and TThompson and Bam and Nurkic and JRandle but these guys can't consistently score in the post and therefore you are sitting at home. Ayton might be the only non-3-shooting starting big man left (not discounting the BOBAN resurgence and he's surrounded by shooters. If Kevin McHale were 25 he'd be averaging 35ppg but he doesn't exist today. Player development is more of an issue than coaching, but I'd expect someday a wave of post players will take advantage if the market inefficiency continues but that will not prove your post right 20yrs from now.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So most of the people with actual full-time jobs, careers in professional sports are wrong and you as a fan have analyzed the problem and determined a better course? The cameras (sportvu) and analytics like Second Spectrum are showing them a lot of data - have you reviewed or subscribed?

The game is certainly evolving and I don't love it. Offensive rebounding has proven to be far less valuable than protecting against layups, though its a bummer and not true 100% of time, I get it. Likewise in the playoffs we continually see defending pick-n-rolls an absolute premium as every team needs to be able to switch because shooters have become that good. Add to that the lack of emphasis on post development and post skills = every player from 5'8" to 7'2" wants to shoot threes. So you can try playing Drummond and Harrell and TThompson and Bam and Nurkic and JRandle but these guys can't consistently score in the post and therefore you are sitting at home. Ayton might be the only non-3-shooting starting big man left (not discounting the BOBAN resurgence and he's surrounded by shooters. If Kevin McHale were 25 he'd be averaging 35ppg but he doesn't exist today. Player development is more of an issue than coaching, but I'd expect someday a wave of post players will take advantage if the market inefficiency continues but that will not prove your post right 20yrs from now.

Maybe the "stats experts" are right at basketball has reached its terminal point and there will be no further developments. You should go ahead and make that bet. Or maybe we are in about the 4th inning of the analytics revolution in basketball.

What you and most of the sports statisticians don't get is that more 3 point shooters don't result in better 3's. It's not that hard to figure out if you think about it.

And I put "stats experts" in quotes because the sports statisticians are fairly rudimentary compared to the statistical analysis occurring in many other fields. We have a long way to go.

 

[Kenny11]

My comments on Drummond weren’t even about analytics. Just watch him play. He has a very low basketball iq, is probably 20 pounds more than he should be, is constantly out of position and maybe the worst free throw shooter ever.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

My comments on Drummond weren’t even about analytics. Just watch him play. He has a very low basketball iq, is probably 20 pounds more than he should be, is constantly out of position and maybe the worst free throw shooter ever.

Drummond is a low post player. Lakers should have played him in the low post.

 

[Ratso]

If the Bucks don't win the title this season, they are never winning it.

Competition:

East:

76ers - Embiid at less than 100% = no chance of even making the NBA Finals.
Hawks - nice little team that may upset the 76ers with Embiid's issues, but no chance of winning it all.
Nets - collection of aging superstars and a terrible team defensively.


West:

Jazz - probably the best team left, but does anyone thing they are championship caliber?
Suns - 2/3's of the key players are infants, and Paul's bad shoulder limits how far they can go.
Nuggets - With Murray, might be the favorite. Without him, just a good solid team that isn't great.
Mavericks/Clippers - Clippers are still a tough team in a 7 game series. Mavericks are a one man show.

sixers are making it. ben is alpha 1 , if tobias believes that he’s alpha 2 , sixers in
6. with joel, 5

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The stats people put way too much emphasis on where a shot is taken rather than the kind of shot that is taken. They are just beginning to measure contested vs. open shots. Another area that the stats people are just scratching the surface of is pull ups vs. catch and shoot. Most players are much more accurate shooting off the catch than off the dribble. The next level will be inside out catch-and-shoot vs. around the horn catch-and-shoot.

My premise is that an effective post player will improve a team's 3 point shooting. Analytics just needs to catch up.

 

[the Q]

Not gonna lie, wanna see a clippers loss tonight just because it’s the one domino that could create absolute chaos this offseason

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Not gonna lie, wanna see a clippers loss tonight just because it’s the one domino that could create absolute chaos this offseason

I hear you. But it appears that the David Stern rule is in effect. The NBA wants an LA team to play in the next round. The officiating is very Clipper friendly tonight. They are hacking away on Dallas with impunity.

 

[superjohn]

I hear you. But it appears that the David Stern rule is in effect. The NBA wants an LA team to play in the next round. The officiating is very Clipper friendly tonight. They are hacking away on Dallas with impunity.

I like that they're letting them play but Luka is getting fouled on jump shots and the Boban foul is as bad as it gets, punished for being tall.

 

[the Q]

I like that they're letting them play but Luka is getting fouled on jump shots and the Boban foul is as bad as it gets, punished for being tall.

That’s because basketball is officiated by guards.

Happens at every level

And I hate it

Basketball was built for tall people and everyone wants to take them away

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Clippers will be tough to beat if Kawhi plays this well for another half.

 

[Ratso]

drummond did notin! not aa damn ting

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't like the Mavericks' odds in a game 7, so they have to win this game. I would get Luka back in the game. He has all offseason to rest.

Edit: The Mavericks are getting killed by the refs in the 4th. Zubac fouled 2 mavericks on the rebound tip to George, and that out of bounds was clearly off Paul George.

 

[superjohn]

Porzingis isn't even playing.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Game is slipping away from Dallas. Doncic is a little off tonight, and Dallas is taking too many low percentage shot attempts.

 

[superjohn]

Don't understand why Kleber plays so much, he does nothing.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Clippers are just the better team. Kawhi and Paul George are better than anyone on the Mavericks. Mavericks are lucky to be in this spot.

And that is the game.

 

[superjohn]

Clippers are just the better team. Kawhi and Paul George are better than anyone on the Mavericks. Mavericks are lucky to be in this spot.

And that is the game.

Lolzzzzz

 

[the Q]

Porzingis isn't even playing.

A kemba for zinger deal of some kind would be interesting