2020 WNBA MVP

[MilfordHusky]

Sloot's performance tonight was roughly neutral. I think Phee lost a little ground. Stewie was maybe neutral. 4-17 is poor, but 14 boards are good.

This could come down to the last couple of games.

 

[MilfordHusky]

ROY candidates
View attachment 58222

This suggests Carter is slightly ahead, but she missed 6 games and her team trails Crystal's team by 8 games.

The shooting stats for Julie and Satou are surprising. Satou is a big, but shooting only 35%. Julie is shooting 49% and making lots of treys.

Like the MVP race, I think it's a 2-player race. Chennedy likely will be a superstar, but Crystal is matching her right now.

 

[DeeHusky]

This suggests Carter is slightly ahead, but she missed 6 games and her team trails Crystal's team by 8 games.

The shooting stats for Julie and Satou are surprising. Satou is a big, but shooting only 35%. Julie is shooting 49% and making lots of treys.

Like the MVP race, I think it's a 2-player race. Chennedy likely will be a superstar, but Crystal is matching her right now.

No way anybody should get ROY over Crystal and that doesn’t have anything to do with me being biased as a UConn fan. Like Napheesa last year, she was very pivotal and a starter for a team that has one of the better records in the league. She separated herself in the last month. If I had it my way, all rookies from UConn would play for Reeve and then once they get established as a core player in the league, they could go (or stay) to whatever team they liked.

 

[eebmg]

No way anybody should get ROY over Crystal and that doesn’t have anything to do with me being biased as a UConn fan. Like Napheesa last year, she was very pivotal and a starter for a team that has one of the better records in the league. She separated herself in the last month. If I had it my way, all rookies from UConn would play for Reeve and then once they get established as a core player in the league, they could go (or stay) to whatever team they liked.

Unlike the MVP, not sure much weight is given to the team record for ROY . Maybe someone industrious BY'er can investigate if there were ROY winners on poor (or even lousy) teams ??

 

[nwhoopfan]

Not gonna look at records for the team w/ the ROY every year, but Loyd and Stewie won back to back w/ Seattle when they were 10-24 and then 16-18.

Makes sense that the best draft pick goes to a bad team, and no matter how good that player is they aren't instantaneously going to become a contender. Plus if it's a team lacking much talent, a rookie would have a chance to shine immediately.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Looking at the list of winners...Jackie Stiles beat out Lauren Jackson for ROY in 2001!? Oh and Portland was 11-21 that year, so another winner from a bad team.

 

[nwhoopfan]

A'ja Wilson won in 2018, Aces were 14-20. Allisha Gray won '17, Wings were 16-18. I think we have an answer, team's record isn't much of a factor.

 

[UConnCat]

Unlike the MVP, not sure much weight is given to the team record for ROY . Maybe someone industrious BY'er can investigate if there were ROY winners on poor (or even lousy) teams ??

I do wonder if it mattered last season only in the sense that the voters may have put Arike's late season scoring surge in context. By mid-late August the Wings were out of the playoff picture while the Lynx were fighting to make the playoffs. Over the last 6 games of the season, Arike averaged nearly 23 FGA/game while the Wings were 1-5; Phee averaged about 11 FGA/game as the Lynx won 5 of their last 6 games to make the playoffs.

 

[Shades]

Welcome Quigley to the party.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Usually, the ROY is the #1 overall pick, who typically goes to a poor team. So the team often fares poorly.

But some years, the #1 pick is clearly the best player (Diana, Candace, Tina, Maya, Nneka, A'ja), regardless of what the team's record is. The team that "earned" the #1 pick by having a poor record the prior year can fare much better when the rookie is really good.

I agree with UConnCat's point that it's easier and less meaningful for a player to put up big numbers on a bad team than to put up moderate numbers in helping the team to win.

 

[Baylor1994]

Usually, the ROY is the #1 overall pick, who typically goes to a poor team. So the team often fares poorly.

But some years, the #1 pick is clearly the best player (Diana, Candace, Tina, Maya, Nneka, A'ja), regardless of what the team's record is. The team that "earned" the #1 pick by having a poor record the prior year can fare much better when the rookie is really good.

I agree with UConnCat's point that it's easier and less meaningful for a player to put up big numbers on a bad team than to put up moderate numbers in helping the team to win.

Don’t forget EDD she was the best when Griner and digging struggled their rookie year

 

[MilfordHusky]

Don’t forget EDD she was the best when Griner and digging struggled their rookie year

I do recall that Sky struggled and even lost her starting position, but I don't recall Brittney's rookie year. In that group, any one of the 3 could have been the standout. Elena was perhaps the best #2 pick since Sylvia (who was behind Candace).

 

[bballnut90]

Usually, the ROY is the #1 overall pick, who typically goes to a poor team. So the team often fares poorly.

But some years, the #1 pick is clearly the best player (Diana, Candace, Tina, Maya, Nneka, A'ja), regardless of what the team's record is. The team that "earned" the #1 pick by having a poor record the prior year can fare much better when the rookie is really good.

I agree with UConnCat's point that it's easier and less meaningful for a player to put up big numbers on a bad team than to put up moderate numbers in helping the team to win.

A huge reason why those teams improved so much after landing the top pick is that they also got back a superstar who was injured or sat out for most of the prior year. Not having their star led to an awful record, which in turn allowed the team to land a #1 pick. Add in the healthy superstar the following year plus their #1 pick and the team's record improves immensely:

Candace Parker- Lisa Leslie sat out 2007. With both it was a 10 game improvement

Nneka Ogwumike- Candace missed half of 2011 season and wasn't healthy when she came back. With both in 2012 it was a 9 game improvement.

Maya Moore- Augustus was injured in 2010 and still recovering from an ACL. With both her and Moore it was a 14 game improvement.

Tina Charles- #1 pick was traded, so she joined a pretty decent team (Connecticut went 16-18 the year prior). With Tina it was a 1 game improvement.

Brittney Griner-not ROY, but Penny Taylor/DT sat out in 2012 and their record was terrible. Lots of speculation that Phoenix was tanking to land BG that year. With all 3 it was a 12 game improvement

DT-Phoenix didn't have a superstar in 2003, but they acquired Penny Taylor with the first pick of the dispersal draft which was obviously a massive addition. With both it led to a 9 game improvement.

Wilson is the exception of being picked by a bad team that didn't have a big time player join, but the Aces still missed out on playoffs in 2018 and finished 9th in the league. Worth noting though is A'ja did make a big impact and the team won 6 more games.

 

[eebmg]

A huge reason why those teams improved so much after landing the top pick is that they also got back a superstar was injured or sat out for most of the prior year. Not having their star led to an awful record, which in turn allowed the team to land a #1 pick. Add in the healthy superstar the following year plus their #1 pick and the team's record improves immensely better:

Candace Parker- Lisa Leslie sat out 2007. With both it was a 10 game improvement

Nneka Ogwumike- Candace missed half of 2011 season and wasn't healthy when she came back. With both in 2012 it was a 9 game improvement.

Maya Moore- Augustus was injured in 2010 and still recovering from an ACL. With both her and Moore it was a 14 game improvement.

Tina Charles- #1 pick was traded, so she joined a pretty decent team (Connecticut went 16-18 the year prior). With Tina it was a 1 game improvement.

Brittney Griner-not ROY, but Penny Taylor/DT sat out in 2012 and their record was terrible. Lots of speculation that Phoenix was tanking to land BG that year. With all 3 it was a 12 game improvement

DT-Phoenix didn't have a superstar in 2003, but they acquired Penny Taylor with the first pick of the dispersal draft which was obviously a massive addition. With both it led to a 9 game improvement.

Wilson is the exception of being picked by a bad team that didn't have a big time player join, but the Aces still missed out on playoffs in 2018 and finished 9th in the league. Worth noting though is A'ja did make a big impact and the team won 6 more games.

Your research is better than our research.

 

[maccca3232]

Here is another way of looking at MVP candidates.

In the history of WNBA only 1 player from 23 seasons (Tina Charles in 2012) has won the MVP without being in both the Top 6 for PER (Player Efficiency Rating) AND (WS) Total Win Shares. She was neither that year.

The 4 players from this season meeting that criteria are: Stewart, Wilson, Taurasi and Collier.

The player with the highest WS has won 13 of 23 (56.5%) and the last 6 years. Stewart is currently leading that stat.

 

[eebmg]

Vandersloot is one position from your top 6 in PER rank so I do not see your criteria knocking her out. More problematic is that the Sky are undermanned and will probably finish in the 6th spot

 

[eebmg]

Well, Diana had gone Super Nova. Maybe she can lap the field.

Diana Taurasi, back up against the wall, leads the Mercury to the playoffs

Since exploding for 34 points in Kobe Bryant's No. 8 on Aug. 23, Taurasi has been playing some of the best basketball of her career.

theathletic.com

Against the Fever, Taurasi matched her career-high with eight 3-pointers. Over the last five games, she set a WNBA record with 28 makes from range.

And not gimmes. She has attempted 41 shots from at least 25 feet out in the past five games. She attempted the same number over the first 10 games of the season.

 

[DeeHusky]

Well, Diana had gone Super Nova. Maybe she can lap the field.

Diana Taurasi, back up against the wall, leads the Mercury to the playoffs

Since exploding for 34 points in Kobe Bryant's No. 8 on Aug. 23, Taurasi has been playing some of the best basketball of her career.

theathletic.com

Against the Fever, Taurasi matched her career-high with eight 3-pointers. Over the last five games, she set a WNBA record with 28 makes from range.

And not gimmes. She has attempted 41 shots from at least 25 feet out in the past five games. She attempted the same number over the first 10 games of the season.

She’s been playing pretty well and the team is playing fairly well over the past few games without Griner in the lineup. I don’t know what it is about Griner and I don’t understand why she’s not mvp every season or at least in the top 3, imo she doesn’t give full out effort

 

[maccca3232]

Vandersloot is one position from your top 6 in PER rank so I do not see your criteria knocking her out. More problematic is that the Sky are undermanned and will probably finish in the 6th spot

Source: Basketball Reference (link)

 

[Orangutan]

I was curious at the on/off court breakdowns for the MVP candidate. Here are the on/off net rating differentials for some top players.

Net rating is "the team's point differential per 100 possessions while he is on court.Formula OFFRTG - DEFRTG ".

The number I'm listing here is how many points per 100 possessions better (or worse) the team is when that player is on the court.

Vandersloot: +27.3
Bonner: +19.1
Ogunbowale: +17.0
Collier: +15.2
Stewart: +11.1
McCoughtry: +11.0
Wilson: +10.8
Ca. Parker: +9.4
Taurasi: -5.4
Diggins-Smith: -21.5

I don't think this is actually a good criteria for MVP but I just thought I'd share with the class.

It does indicate just how dreadful the Sky are when Vandersloot is on the bench, though. Nobody means more to their team than her.

Stewart is probably my MVP, as of now, but I'd be fine with either her or Wilson this year. I think Stewart's the better player but Wilson is the anchor and focal point of a great team.

 

[eebmg]

I was curious at the on/off court breakdowns for the MVP candidate. Here are the on/off net rating differentials for some top players.

Net rating is "the team's point differential per 100 possessions while he is on court.Formula OFFRTG - DEFRTG ".

The number I'm listing here is how many points per 100 possessions better (or worse) the team is when that player is on the court.

Vandersloot: +27.3
Bonner: +19.1
Ogunbowale: +17.0
Collier: +15.2
Stewart: +11.1
McCoughtry: +11.0
Wilson: +10.8
Ca. Parker: +9.4
Taurasi: -5.4
Diggins-Smith: -21.5

I don't think this is actually a good criteria for MVP but I just thought I'd share with the class.

It does indicate just how dreadful the Sky are when Vandersloot is on the bench, though. Nobody means more to their team than her.

Stewart is probably my MVP, as of now, but I'd be fine with either her or Wilson this year. I think Stewart's the better player but Wilson is the anchor and focal point of a great team.

Michelle Smith's selections

Asia sneaks ahead of Stewie (rough shooting last 4 games)

Inside the W with Michelle Smith: My League Award Ballot - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

In this most extraordinary WNBA season, there have been many extraordinary performances, with many more to come as the regular season gives way to the WNBA Playoffs presented by AT&T beginning on Sept. 15 in Bradenton, Florida. Twenty-two games to find a team’s chemistry, to settle on a...

www.wnba.com

Surprise winner of DPOY (Naphessa)

Less surprise winners ROY (Crystal)

Cheryl Reeve Coach of Year

 

[donalddoowop]

Michelle Smith's selections

Asia sneaks ahead of Stewie (rough shooting last 4 games)

Inside the W with Michelle Smith: My League Award Ballot - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

In this most extraordinary WNBA season, there have been many extraordinary performances, with many more to come as the regular season gives way to the WNBA Playoffs presented by AT&T beginning on Sept. 15 in Bradenton, Florida. Twenty-two games to find a team’s chemistry, to settle on a...

www.wnba.com

Surprise winner of DPOY (Naphessa)

Less surprise winners ROY (Crystal)

Cheryl Reeve Coach of Year

Who is Naphessa?

 

[Bigboote]

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Michelle Smith's selections

Asia sneaks ahead of Stewie (rough shooting last 4 games)

Inside the W with Michelle Smith: My League Award Ballot - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

In this most extraordinary WNBA season, there have been many extraordinary performances, with many more to come as the regular season gives way to the WNBA Playoffs presented by AT&T beginning on Sept. 15 in Bradenton, Florida. Twenty-two games to find a team’s chemistry, to settle on a...

www.wnba.com

Surprise winner of DPOY (Naphessa)

Less surprise winners ROY (Crystal)

Cheryl Reeve Coach of Year

Reeve is a no-brainer. For many games this year their starting lineup has been Dantas, Collier, Bridget Carleton, Lexie Brown, and Dangerfield. 5 years experience, 1, 1, 2, and rookie. And Carleton played maybe 30 minutes total last year, Lexie not an awful lot over her two years. And Crystal was a 2nd round draft choice. Not the typical makeup of a team playing for a bye this late in the season.

I wouldn’t call Crystal a shoo-in for ROY, but that’s only because the voters sometimes don’t appear to have a clue.

Collier for defensive player seems like a good choice, as would Alyssa Thomas, but there are plenty to split up the vote.

I wouldn’t vote for MVP till the Storm and Aces play for the second time. Let’s see how Stewie and A’ja play head to head with a lot on the line.

 

[MSSportsGuy]

Her picks are pretty solid. I would pick Aja as MVP with Stewart a close 2nd. Crystal is the ROY and Reeve is the COY.

It's actually been a fairly entertaining season and I've only watched out of sheer boredom but I've seen some decent basketball and some entertaining games. DT keeps proving she has some gas left in the tank and I saw her play very well for Phoenix. She and Diggins-Smith had to step up without Griner and it appears they have done just that.

 

[Shades]