2020 WNBA MVP | Page 2 | The Boneyard

2020 WNBA MVP

Looking at the list of winners...Jackie Stiles beat out Lauren Jackson for ROY in 2001!? Oh and Portland was 11-21 that year, so another winner from a bad team.
 
A'ja Wilson won in 2018, Aces were 14-20. Allisha Gray won '17, Wings were 16-18. I think we have an answer, team's record isn't much of a factor.
 
eebmg said:
Unlike the MVP, not sure much weight is given to the team record for ROY . Maybe someone industrious BY'er can investigate if there were ROY winners on poor (or even lousy) teams ??
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I do wonder if it mattered last season only in the sense that the voters may have put Arike's late season scoring surge in context. By mid-late August the Wings were out of the playoff picture while the Lynx were fighting to make the playoffs. Over the last 6 games of the season, Arike averaged nearly 23 FGA/game while the Wings were 1-5; Phee averaged about 11 FGA/game as the Lynx won 5 of their last 6 games to make the playoffs.
 
Welcome Quigley to the party.
4F8939E2-1533-47B5-9E0E-D5E3A0C8C484.png
 
Usually, the ROY is the #1 overall pick, who typically goes to a poor team. So the team often fares poorly.

But some years, the #1 pick is clearly the best player (Diana, Candace, Tina, Maya, Nneka, A'ja), regardless of what the team's record is. The team that "earned" the #1 pick by having a poor record the prior year can fare much better when the rookie is really good.

I agree with UConnCat's point that it's easier and less meaningful for a player to put up big numbers on a bad team than to put up moderate numbers in helping the team to win.
 
MilfordHusky said:
Usually, the ROY is the #1 overall pick, who typically goes to a poor team. So the team often fares poorly.

But some years, the #1 pick is clearly the best player (Diana, Candace, Tina, Maya, Nneka, A'ja), regardless of what the team's record is. The team that "earned" the #1 pick by having a poor record the prior year can fare much better when the rookie is really good.

I agree with UConnCat's point that it's easier and less meaningful for a player to put up big numbers on a bad team than to put up moderate numbers in helping the team to win.
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Don’t forget EDD she was the best when Griner and digging struggled their rookie year
 
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Baylor1994 said:
Don’t forget EDD she was the best when Griner and digging struggled their rookie year
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I do recall that Sky struggled and even lost her starting position, but I don't recall Brittney's rookie year. In that group, any one of the 3 could have been the standout. Elena was perhaps the best #2 pick since Sylvia (who was behind Candace).
 
MilfordHusky said:
Usually, the ROY is the #1 overall pick, who typically goes to a poor team. So the team often fares poorly.

But some years, the #1 pick is clearly the best player (Diana, Candace, Tina, Maya, Nneka, A'ja), regardless of what the team's record is. The team that "earned" the #1 pick by having a poor record the prior year can fare much better when the rookie is really good.

I agree with UConnCat's point that it's easier and less meaningful for a player to put up big numbers on a bad team than to put up moderate numbers in helping the team to win.
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A huge reason why those teams improved so much after landing the top pick is that they also got back a superstar who was injured or sat out for most of the prior year. Not having their star led to an awful record, which in turn allowed the team to land a #1 pick. Add in the healthy superstar the following year plus their #1 pick and the team's record improves immensely:

Candace Parker- Lisa Leslie sat out 2007. With both it was a 10 game improvement

Nneka Ogwumike- Candace missed half of 2011 season and wasn't healthy when she came back. With both in 2012 it was a 9 game improvement.

Maya Moore- Augustus was injured in 2010 and still recovering from an ACL. With both her and Moore it was a 14 game improvement.

Tina Charles- #1 pick was traded, so she joined a pretty decent team (Connecticut went 16-18 the year prior). With Tina it was a 1 game improvement.

Brittney Griner-not ROY, but Penny Taylor/DT sat out in 2012 and their record was terrible. Lots of speculation that Phoenix was tanking to land BG that year. With all 3 it was a 12 game improvement

DT-Phoenix didn't have a superstar in 2003, but they acquired Penny Taylor with the first pick of the dispersal draft which was obviously a massive addition. With both it led to a 9 game improvement.

Wilson is the exception of being picked by a bad team that didn't have a big time player join, but the Aces still missed out on playoffs in 2018 and finished 9th in the league. Worth noting though is A'ja did make a big impact and the team won 6 more games.
 
Last edited:
bballnut90 said:
A huge reason why those teams improved so much after landing the top pick is that they also got back a superstar was injured or sat out for most of the prior year. Not having their star led to an awful record, which in turn allowed the team to land a #1 pick. Add in the healthy superstar the following year plus their #1 pick and the team's record improves immensely better:

Candace Parker- Lisa Leslie sat out 2007. With both it was a 10 game improvement

Nneka Ogwumike- Candace missed half of 2011 season and wasn't healthy when she came back. With both in 2012 it was a 9 game improvement.

Maya Moore- Augustus was injured in 2010 and still recovering from an ACL. With both her and Moore it was a 14 game improvement.

Tina Charles- #1 pick was traded, so she joined a pretty decent team (Connecticut went 16-18 the year prior). With Tina it was a 1 game improvement.

Brittney Griner-not ROY, but Penny Taylor/DT sat out in 2012 and their record was terrible. Lots of speculation that Phoenix was tanking to land BG that year. With all 3 it was a 12 game improvement

DT-Phoenix didn't have a superstar in 2003, but they acquired Penny Taylor with the first pick of the dispersal draft which was obviously a massive addition. With both it led to a 9 game improvement.

Wilson is the exception of being picked by a bad team that didn't have a big time player join, but the Aces still missed out on playoffs in 2018 and finished 9th in the league. Worth noting though is A'ja did make a big impact and the team won 6 more games.
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Your research is better than our research. ;)
 
Here is another way of looking at MVP candidates.

In the history of WNBA only 1 player from 23 seasons (Tina Charles in 2012) has won the MVP without being in both the Top 6 for PER (Player Efficiency Rating) AND (WS) Total Win Shares. She was neither that year.

The 4 players from this season meeting that criteria are: Stewart, Wilson, Taurasi and Collier.

The player with the highest WS has won 13 of 23 (56.5%) and the last 6 years. Stewart is currently leading that stat.

1599224813221.png
 
Vandersloot is one position from your top 6 in PER rank so I do not see your criteria knocking her out. More problematic is that the Sky are undermanned and will probably finish in the 6th spot
 
Well, Diana had gone Super Nova. Maybe she can lap the field.


theathletic.com

Diana Taurasi, back up against the wall, leads the Mercury to the playoffs

Since exploding for 34 points in Kobe Bryant's No. 8 on Aug. 23, Taurasi has been playing some of the best basketball of her career.
theathletic.com theathletic.com


Against the Fever, Taurasi matched her career-high with eight 3-pointers. Over the last five games, she set a WNBA record with 28 makes from range.

And not gimmes. She has attempted 41 shots from at least 25 feet out in the past five games. She attempted the same number over the first 10 games of the season.
 
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eebmg said:
Well, Diana had gone Super Nova. Maybe she can lap the field.


theathletic.com

Diana Taurasi, back up against the wall, leads the Mercury to the playoffs

Since exploding for 34 points in Kobe Bryant's No. 8 on Aug. 23, Taurasi has been playing some of the best basketball of her career.
theathletic.com theathletic.com


Against the Fever, Taurasi matched her career-high with eight 3-pointers. Over the last five games, she set a WNBA record with 28 makes from range.

And not gimmes. She has attempted 41 shots from at least 25 feet out in the past five games. She attempted the same number over the first 10 games of the season.
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She’s been playing pretty well and the team is playing fairly well over the past few games without Griner in the lineup. I don’t know what it is about Griner and I don’t understand why she’s not mvp every season or at least in the top 3, imo she doesn’t give full out effort
 
eebmg said:
Vandersloot is one position from your top 6 in PER rank so I do not see your criteria knocking her out. More problematic is that the Sky are undermanned and will probably finish in the 6th spot
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Source: Basketball Reference (link)

1599344754191.png
 
I was curious at the on/off court breakdowns for the MVP candidate. Here are the on/off net rating differentials for some top players.

Net rating is "the team's point differential per 100 possessions while he is on court.Formula OFFRTG - DEFRTG ".

The number I'm listing here is how many points per 100 possessions better (or worse) the team is when that player is on the court.

Vandersloot: +27.3
Bonner: +19.1
Ogunbowale: +17.0
Collier: +15.2
Stewart: +11.1
McCoughtry: +11.0
Wilson: +10.8
Ca. Parker: +9.4
Taurasi: -5.4
Diggins-Smith: -21.5

I don't think this is actually a good criteria for MVP but I just thought I'd share with the class.

It does indicate just how dreadful the Sky are when Vandersloot is on the bench, though. Nobody means more to their team than her.

Stewart is probably my MVP, as of now, but I'd be fine with either her or Wilson this year. I think Stewart's the better player but Wilson is the anchor and focal point of a great team.
 
Orangutan said:
I was curious at the on/off court breakdowns for the MVP candidate. Here are the on/off net rating differentials for some top players.

Net rating is "the team's point differential per 100 possessions while he is on court.Formula OFFRTG - DEFRTG ".

The number I'm listing here is how many points per 100 possessions better (or worse) the team is when that player is on the court.

Vandersloot: +27.3
Bonner: +19.1
Ogunbowale: +17.0
Collier: +15.2
Stewart: +11.1
McCoughtry: +11.0
Wilson: +10.8
Ca. Parker: +9.4
Taurasi: -5.4
Diggins-Smith: -21.5

I don't think this is actually a good criteria for MVP but I just thought I'd share with the class.

It does indicate just how dreadful the Sky are when Vandersloot is on the bench, though. Nobody means more to their team than her.

Stewart is probably my MVP, as of now, but I'd be fine with either her or Wilson this year. I think Stewart's the better player but Wilson is the anchor and focal point of a great team.
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Michelle Smith's selections

Asia sneaks ahead of Stewie (rough shooting last 4 games)


www.wnba.com

Inside the W with Michelle Smith: My League Award Ballot - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

In this most extraordinary WNBA season, there have been many extraordinary performances, with many more to come as the regular season gives way to the WNBA Playoffs presented by AT&T beginning on Sept. 15 in Bradenton, Florida. Twenty-two games to find a team’s chemistry, to settle on a...
www.wnba.com www.wnba.com

Surprise winner of DPOY (Naphessa)

Less surprise winners ROY (Crystal)

Cheryl Reeve Coach of Year
 
eebmg said:
Michelle Smith's selections

Asia sneaks ahead of Stewie (rough shooting last 4 games)


www.wnba.com

Inside the W with Michelle Smith: My League Award Ballot - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

In this most extraordinary WNBA season, there have been many extraordinary performances, with many more to come as the regular season gives way to the WNBA Playoffs presented by AT&T beginning on Sept. 15 in Bradenton, Florida. Twenty-two games to find a team’s chemistry, to settle on a...
www.wnba.com www.wnba.com

Surprise winner of DPOY (Naphessa)

Less surprise winners ROY (Crystal)

Cheryl Reeve Coach of Year
Expand ...
Who is Naphessa?
 
p
eebmg said:
Michelle Smith's selections

Asia sneaks ahead of Stewie (rough shooting last 4 games)


www.wnba.com

Inside the W with Michelle Smith: My League Award Ballot - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

In this most extraordinary WNBA season, there have been many extraordinary performances, with many more to come as the regular season gives way to the WNBA Playoffs presented by AT&T beginning on Sept. 15 in Bradenton, Florida. Twenty-two games to find a team’s chemistry, to settle on a...
www.wnba.com www.wnba.com

Surprise winner of DPOY (Naphessa)

Less surprise winners ROY (Crystal)

Cheryl Reeve Coach of Year
Expand ...

Reeve is a no-brainer. For many games this year their starting lineup has been Dantas, Collier, Bridget Carleton, Lexie Brown, and Dangerfield. 5 years experience, 1, 1, 2, and rookie. And Carleton played maybe 30 minutes total last year, Lexie not an awful lot over her two years. And Crystal was a 2nd round draft choice. Not the typical makeup of a team playing for a bye this late in the season.

I wouldn’t call Crystal a shoo-in for ROY, but that’s only because the voters sometimes don’t appear to have a clue.

Collier for defensive player seems like a good choice, as would Alyssa Thomas, but there are plenty to split up the vote.

I wouldn’t vote for MVP till the Storm and Aces play for the second time. Let’s see how Stewie and A’ja play head to head with a lot on the line.
 
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Her picks are pretty solid. I would pick Aja as MVP with Stewart a close 2nd. Crystal is the ROY and Reeve is the COY.

It's actually been a fairly entertaining season and I've only watched out of sheer boredom but I've seen some decent basketball and some entertaining games. DT keeps proving she has some gas left in the tank and I saw her play very well for Phoenix. She and Diggins-Smith had to step up without Griner and it appears they have done just that.
 
I think some of the voting would be really close as of now. I'm holding off on my final call until I see the rest of the season.
 
My final list.
83-B42897-0-B3-B-40-C2-B6-CB-3-F5-C753-A8-BA4.png


Between Stewart & Wilson, defensive stats are comparable.
Stewart has more assists but also has more turnovers.
Wilson has higher PPG & FG%.
Wilson played in all the games.
LVA wins the season series against SEA 2-0.
LVA earns the #1 seed.
Wilson is the MVP.
 
1600083290243.png


Showing players that finished in either the Top 10 for PER or WS.

Notes
  • After resting the last 2 games Stewart finishes 3rd in Total Win Shares behind Vandersloot and Wilson.
  • McCoughtry is the only other player who finished in the Top 6 for both. She didn't even get a vote, let alone make the ESPN All-Wubble teams.
  • Vandersloot would have finished 6th in PER except that Alexis Prince was signed late and played 16 minutes total over 2 games.
I would actually like to see Courtney win but concede A'ja will probably edge Stewart.
 
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I'm indecisive in what I think is extremely close.. I recall the year that Brett Favre and Barry Sanders were both the NFL MVPs. I've having Stewie and A'ja share it.

I have Crystal as ROY.

Hamby for 6th Woman.

Phee for DPOY.

Hines-Allen just slightly ahead of Laney for Most Improved.

Cheryl gets my Coach of the Year vote.
 
MilfordHusky said:
I'm indecisive in what I think is extremely close.. I recall the year that Brett Favre and Barry Sanders were both the NFL MVPs. I've having Stewie and A'ja share it.

I have Crystal as ROY.

Hamby for 6th Woman.

Phee for DPOY.

Hines-Allen just slightly ahead of Laney for Most Improved.

Cheryl gets my Coach of the Year vote.
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Stewie is the undoubtable Comeback Player of the Year.
 
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