2018 AP Poll, USAT Coaches’ Poll and CFP Rankings | Page 3 | The Boneyard

2018 AP Poll, USAT Coaches’ Poll and CFP Rankings

whaler11 said:
Anyone with two eyes can tell you they were better last year.

I know Norvell has been hyped... if someone stuffed him in a locker at the half Memphis wins going away.
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It was just timely...

...not the first time last year’s rep bleeds over into the following year.
 
He certainly has a point about ND, which was lucky the Pitt kicker missed two FGs (47, 36) after bombing a 55 and 54 week before at Heinz (the 55 was a record kick, college or pro at Heinz).
 
huskymedic said:
It was just timely...

...not the first time last year’s rep bleeds over into the following year.
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I wasn’t implying you disagreed. Just piling on. Bernie from weekend at bernie’s 2 would have out-coached Norvell.
 
USAT/Amway Coaches Poll (10/21/18)
  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. LSU
  5. Michigan
  6. Georgia
  7. Texas
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Ohio St
  10. UCF
  11. Florida
  12. WVU
  13. Washington
  14. Kentucky
  15. Washington State
  16. Penn State
  17. Texas A&M
  18. Iowa
  19. Wisconsin
  20. USF
  21. Oregon
  22. NC State
  23. Stanford
  24. Utah
  25. Miami
Others Receiving Votes: Appalachian State 78; Utah State 63; San Diego State 62; Cincinnati 30; Houston 30; Fresno State 22; Mississippi State 18; Virginia 17; Auburn 13; Buffalo 9; Colorado 9; Texas Tech 8; Army 8; Duke 8; Purdue 7; UAB 6; South Carolina 5; Virginia Tech 4; Syracuse 3; Georgia Southern 2; Michigan State 1.
 
If UCF goes undefeated again and missed the playoff, I predict that G5 will break and create their own playoff system. There’s no chance of anyone getting in ever if UCF doesn’t. It’s so unfair
 
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AP Top 25 Poll (10/21/18)
  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. LSU
  5. Michigan
  6. Texas
  7. Georgia
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Florida
  10. UCF
  11. Ohio St
  12. Kentucky
  13. West Virginia
  14. Washington State
  15. Washington
  16. Texas A&M
  17. Penn State
  18. Iowa
  19. Oregon
  20. Wisconsin
  21. USF
  22. NC State
  23. Utah
  24. Stanford
  25. Appalachian State
Others receiving votes:Texas Tech 54, Utah St. 50, San Diego St. 48, Fresno St. 35, Miami 34, Virginia 25, Houston 19, Purdue 17, Michigan St. 8, Cincinnati 7, Auburn 5, Mississippi St. 2, Boston College 2, UAB 1.
 
uconnphil2016 said:
If UCF goes undefeated again and missed the playoff, I predict that G5 will break and create their own playoff system. There’s no chance of anyone getting in ever if UCF doesn’t. It’s so unfair
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1. No, the G5 won't split
2. They would get less money
3. Less eye balls
4. Permanent removal from Basketball, Baseball and most other sports.
 
uconnphil2016 said:
If UCF goes undefeated again and missed the playoff, I predict that G5 will break and create their own playoff system. There’s no chance of anyone getting in ever if UCF doesn’t. It’s so unfair
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UCF isn't the right data point to base that conclusion on because they've played a poor schedule. Not necessarily their fault, but this season just wasn't the year it was going to happen. If Temple had managed to stay unbeaten in 2015 or Houston the following year, those would have been much more interesting discussions.

That being said, it certainly isn't hard to envision a world where a G5 team is deserving and still doesn't get in.
 
If UCF wins out and is left out the G5 will bring a lawsuit. The Committee is full of themselves to think they can parse the teams that finely. Nearly every team they would be competing with for the last spot will have proven they can lose to mediocre to bad teams and will have at most 1 or 2 good wins. The rest of everyone's schedule is full of flotsam. That includes Alabama. There are three good teams in the SEC, which is more than usual but 'bama will have 10 wins that any of the other playoff contenders would also likely have if they played the same schedule.

All the committee does is look at these handful of games and fill the rest with biased opinions. Auburn was a close game away from the CFP and UCF beat them soundly. CFP needs to stop overthinking this to satisfy the bowls and TV execs or you'll have at least two P5 conferences looking to blow it up.
 
If UCF wins out this would be the year the committee takes them. They’re not as good as they were last year and they’d make a fine example of the G5’s “inadequacy” when they get nuked by Bama in the 1/4 game.
 
Its kind of like rec sports where I live. The coaches give their kids all of the reps and then send their kids to other teams to get even more reps while leaving everyone else behind. So, when tryouts take place for the next season, their kids make the team and then tell the other kids, sorry, you just don't have the experience.
 
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We need a playoff with ND, Bama, LSU, and Clemson. The B1G and XII will FLIP OUT if Texas and Michigan don't get in. That will start grumblings of expansion, which would include the P6 AAC.

With our luck, the AAC will boot us out for being bad at football.
 
BlueandOG said:
We need a playoff with ND, Bama, LSU, and Clemson. The B1G and XII will FLIP OUT if Texas and Michigan don't get in. That will start grumblings of expansion, which would include the P6 AAC.

With our luck, the AAC will boot us out for being bad at football.
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Try LSU beats 'Bama and then looses to Georgia in the SEC final. A 1 loss Alabama team gets in without even playing in their own championship game along with Georgia to go along with Clemson and ND. In the final poll, LSU comes in 5th ahead of the winner of Michigan/Ohio St and the best of Texas/Oklahoma/West Virginia.

Better yet, same as above; but, USC upsets ND in LA. As a result, a 2 loss LSU team beats out 1 loss teams ND, Michigan/Ohio St, and Texas/Oklahoma/West Virginia.

Now, that could call an all-out war resulting in playoff expansion to 8, which the G6 will still only get one placement, and/or the ACC or the XII to get ripped apart in another conference realignment round.
 
Not sure UCF is good enough to avoid any missteps this year, but if they do, it will get attention and media will start asking "if a 20+ win streak doesn't get you in the CFP, what does?"

P5 may use it as rationale to push thru expansion to 8 teams.

Surprised no elected official has gotten involved. Oh who am I kidding, it's not like Fla is an important political state.
 
You gotta love all the SEC strength of schedule nonsense though. Alabama is a very good team but they’ve not exactly played a murders row schedule to date. Arkansas State, a dreadful Arkansas program, a mediocre Ol Miss. The Ragin Cajuns from UL Lafayette, and the still have the always dangerous Citadel to come. And that is a pretty typical SEC non- league slate. And I think one of the downsides of the 4 team playoff. Why schedule a good non conference game when a loss might cost you a spot? Better to load up on Ark State and the Citadel so there is no risk.
 
vowelguy said:
If only there were a way to synthesize all of the data points from thousands of games and varying levels of opponents.

Oh right.
College Football Ranking Composite
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This has us one spot above Rutgers so I'd question the sanity of the computers here. They also give us a 56% chance of beating UMass?
 
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Dream Jobbed 2.0 said:
Of it goes to 8 teams we get to see 9-3 Texas AM teams not 13-0 UCF.
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Sagarin has UCF being the underdog, right now, against 25 teams...in fact, Texas A&M (5-2) would be Sagarin's favorite by 5 points.
 
IIRC UCF was an underdog to Auburn last year based on Saragin. And I can’t forget the 1999 Saragin National Championship in men’s basketball which went to Duke...after the tournament ended.

All these models are what they are. Some are a little better than others but most overrate SOS to make it the driving force really. And the result is that weak sisters in good leagues get over rated simply because they are in good leagues. Then a victory over weak sister inflates the strength of a good teams schedule. Same thing happens in basketball but at least with 68 teams lower ranked ones who get in have a shot. Loyola and even the Ollie title team are examples. With only 4 football teams in the NIT and 12 games the impact is much bigger.
 
Yeah...UCF got by Auburn while Auburn was favored by 4 points in Sagarin...Clemson beat Auburn too...for the second year in a row...and Auburn had four, count 'em, four losses.

Auburn was the only top 30 team UCF played (Sagarin).

Having a one game mild upset is not that much...it was the weak sister schedule that had UCF unbeaten...You might wonder if Auburn would have gone unbeaten into the playoff if they played UCF's schedule.

SOS is important...that's how you differentiate 6-1 Georgia Southern from a 6-1 Oklahoma.
 
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UCF has played a poor schedule and does not deserve a top 4 spot this year. Once the playoffs expand to 8 or beyond, G5 teams like UCF, will have a better shot at the playoffs. College football playoffs is an exclusive club, many good teams left out each year.
 
NC_Uconn_Fan said:
UCF has played a poor schedule and does not deserve a top 4 spot this year. Once the playoffs expand to 8 or beyond, G5 teams like UCF, will have a better shot at the playoffs. College football playoffs is an exclusive club, many good teams left out each year.
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What good P5 team will play UCF? None. The problem goes back to the P5 protecting the P5.
 
huskymedic said:
UCF should go all in after the AD tweet to ESPN Game Day Crew the other night and Herbstreit interview above and list each and every school they contacted for a home and home and was refused.
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My thought...UCF didn't try to schedule up until the last couple of years..
and now they have Texas A&M, Stanford, Pitt, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Louisville on schedules between 2019 and 2022...

I don't think that the P5 are afraid to play a tougher game OOC, nor is there some vast P5 conspiracy against UCF...

One might wonder why Alabama can play Miami, Utah State, Central Michigan, and Notre Dame...

or Georgia play Oklahoma, Clemson, UCLA, Arizona State..

or Oklahoma play Ohio State, Houston, UCLA, Tulane, Army, Temple

ot Miami play Alabama, Michigan State, Temple, Appalachian State, Duke

But not UCF

OR USF

play Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, BYU, Texas, NC State, Florida, Louisville

I think there is some culpability on UCF's part...

Last thought...life ain't fair when you are breaking through....I remember Bobby Bowden (King of the Road) having to travel without return to build FSU...travel several times to Columbus, several to Lincoln, a couple to Ann Arbor, and Lansing, five time to Baton Rouge...no returns
 
UCF has played P-5 during the last four seasons.

The three seasons 2014, 15, 16...before last year's big run...UCF's P5 record

ACC 0-1
...lost to NC State

Big Ten 0-3
...lost to Maryland, Michigan, Penn State..did beat Maryland in 2017

SEC 0-2
...lost to Missouri, South Carolina (did beat Auburn in 2017)

PAC 12 0-1
...lost to Stanford

Big 12 1-0
...beat Baylor

Counting 2017...UCF's four year record against the P5 is 3-7
 
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