2015 final 4 -- what teams?

[genosguy]

My perspective is game descriptions hardly ever read "They lost, 54-60, but wowed the home crowd by making a bunch of 15-17 footers."

Cam's observations about changing the way other teams defend UConn have some weight, but unless you have a player who is a) bigger or b) stronger or c) able to jump higher than Kiah can reach (none come immediately to mind, at least not on opposing teams), you've always gotta be alert for the entry pass and can't sag very far off, if you elect to do so.

None of this is meant to give the impression Kiah is a better center than Steph. They are very different style centers and "better" in this case is a very complex question. I have just been pointing out that replacing Steph with Kiah will not allow opponents to think they have it easier -- I see no significant fall-off in offensive options once Geno adjusts the playbook to fit the team's strengths, and I think defense might be a shade better.

I am pleasedl there is one other Kiah Stokes admirer. I've been a fan since her freshman year---. I think the extended playing times in the last games of 13 and all of 14 have made an attitudinal change for Kiah, nothing like playing time to put a skip in your step. I believe Kiah shall return for the 14/15 year with more offensive skills. She can hit the foul line shot, I'm not a fan of 3 pointers for bigs--let KML and Chong make that their shot (along with some drives).

 

[genosguy]

Oh I don't think so...I mean when sg left folks said Notre Dame was done and they weren't, and now Mcbride and Natalie are gone and folks here again are saying they're done. I just don't think so. Now McGraw, much as I've disliked her over the years, she appears to be a good coach and she gets the best out of her players. Lloyd is very very talented and I'm sure they will make a splash, possibly to the Final Four but I doubt they will beat UConn.

Cable, Mabrey (and her sister), Allen, and Loyd are excellent talented players--did you see loyd's stats and play in the NC??--McGraw has done as well recruiting as she did in the past. Her skill is allowing Freshmen to play some minutes and develop. Yet, I doubt most Uconn fans will allow that ND's rating this past year, and characteristics in the past 4 final fours, put them in Uconn's stable??? Winners win, they don't place or show ---no one remembers who came in second (except those who are #2)

 

[Sonny44]

That's a big IF.

Agree, I don't expect her to be there very long.

 

[John Glass]

Cable, Mabrey (and her sister), Allen, and Loyd are excellent talented players--did you see loyd's stats and play in the NC??--McGraw has done as well recruiting as she did in the past. Her skill is allowing Freshmen to play some minutes and develop. Yet, I doubt most Uconn fans will allow that ND's rating this past year, and characteristics in the past 4 final fours, put them in Uconn's stable??? Winners win, they don't place or show ---no one remembers who came in second (except those who are #2)

Marina Mabrey is next year.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Cable, Mabrey (and her sister), Allen, and Loyd are excellent talented players--did you see loyd's stats and play in the NC??--McGraw has done as well recruiting as she did in the past. Her skill is allowing Freshmen to play some minutes and develop. Yet, I doubt most Uconn fans will allow that ND's rating this past year, and characteristics in the past 4 final fours, put them in Uconn's stable??? Winners win, they don't place or show ---no one remembers who came in second (except those who are #2)

This thread was not about which teams were equal to UConn, but rather which teams (besides UConn) would make it to the FF. Therefore, most people probably picked 3 teams, as anyone posting here would assume that UConn will be one of the teams in FF, leaving three vacancies. RadyLady didn't say Notre Dame would beat UConn, but rather that ND would be a good bet to make the FF. That is not a contentious claim, as over 80% of the respondents to this BY poll believe it may happen.

You also list Mabrey's sister, who will not enroll at ND until Fall 2015, but omit Brianna Turner and Katherine Westbeld, who are arriving in South Bend this fall (2014) and were both considered good enough to have received offers from Geno. Notre Dame should have another excellent team this season.

 

[RadyLady]

thanks FC.

 

[John Glass]

This thread was not about which teams were equal to UConn, but rather which teams (besides UConn) would make it to the FF. Therefore, most people probably picked 3 teams, as anyone posting here would assume that UConn will be one of the teams in FF, leaving three vacancies. RadyLady didn't say Notre Dame would beat UConn, but rather that ND would be a good bet to make the FF. That is not a contentious claim, as over 80% of the respondents to this BY poll believe it may happen.

You also list Mabrey's sister, who will not enroll at ND until Fall 2015, but omit Brianna Turner and Katherine Westbeld, who are arriving in South Bend this fall (2014) and were both considered good enough to have received offers from Geno. Notre Dame should have another excellent team this season.

go to the video I posted earlier, and see how quickly Turner, Westbeld, and Johnson have developed. McGraw is a great coach.

 

[01Neaggrad02]

I am going out on a limb.. but I think the Final Four teams in 2015 will be the four teams that win their regionals in the elite 8.

 

[Fightin Choke]

go to the video I posted earlier, and see how quickly Turner, Westbeld, and Johnson have developed. McGraw is a great coach.

Oh, I saw the video. The incoming class couldn't even hit the rim, dribble, or pass before Muffet got a hold of them. And now they can dribble 2 balls at once ( a very valuable in-game skill), pass to an undefended teammate, and hit an uncontested shot or two (although the clever editing didn't let us see the results of most outside shots). I am sold!

 

[01Neaggrad02]

Notre Dame destroyed Maryland without Achonwa . Lloyd is a great player, and checkout their freshman class:

How STUPID! Start at 1:36... the first half is so pathetic I do not know why ND would allow it to be part of the video.

 

[slimmer56]

It IS UCONN, and then everyone else.

# 2 Notre Dame - Muffet can coach. Great group on paper coming in. One thing about Muffet and Notre Dame is they can junk a game up. She will try anything, a box and one, a triangle and two, and various other zones. I just think Muffet instills the confidence in each player that they can't lose.

# 3 South Carolina - They have Dawn Staley. One of the finest defensive coaches in WCBB. They also have a strong nucleus back, and one of the finest freshman to grace the court in a long time.

# 4 Texas A&M - Gary Blair is an offensive guru. They have a decent nucleus coming back with the 2 Courtney's spearheading their attack. I like 'em.

I do think at the first of the year teams will be laying off Kiah. I think teams will want her to prove she can make the 10 to 15 ft jumper. She probably will not be as good of a screener as Stef, but who would be.
I do think Kiah as the year goes by will get better and better.

 

[DbLadyHusky]

I am a newbie, but as devoted a Lady Husky/Geno fan as they come. IMHO one thing is certain, even if Morgan is healthy, Uconn cannot continue to have injuries like the past two years at the wrong time and expect to win it all in 2014-15. But if they get by this year, the future is very bright (think about Lou at the 17's, the defense/board work of Boykin and several of the others who may commit + Collier & Butler. In 2015-16, just as a few teams get loaded so will Uconn and Geno puts them over the top.

 

[John Glass]

How STUPID! Start at 1:36... the first half is so pathetic I do not know why ND would allow it to be part of the video.

most freshman get to much hype, and fans expect them to walk on water. I like the message the video sends

 

[geneticrex]

Injuries aside, I believe UCONN is the class of the field going in, with ND slightly ahead of South Carolina for the 2 spot. After that, TENN, A & M and perhaps North Carolina have a good shot at a FF.

A few other teams will be in the mix, but I'd say 4 0f those 6 teams are pretty decent bets for a FF birth.

 

[hoophuskee]

Or she could destroy her teammates chemistry and keep Tennessee from reaching the final four while she's there.

I doubt it. I think she is a great player. I thought as season wore on she was great for a frosh. Exect everyyear she is a tremendous.

 

[tomcat]

I agree with the person who said that absent injuries, UConn is a couple of steps ahead of the field.I don't think there's any question at all that ND makes it to the Final Four. The only question is how good they will be with their young players before the end of the season. There are a number of other teams that can fill the other two spots, but I'm thinking SC and TN right now, on the assumption that heir young players develop. But as everyone knows, Cinderella teams come along, and this just might be the year fr that to happen.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Sorry, El Gris, this is one of the 2 major reasons I'm excited to see how this season plays out:

Per-40-minutes statistics:

Stat Steph/Kiah
ORB 2.60/4.98
DRB 8.88/10.40
TRB 11.41/15.38
Blk 2.88/4.92

Kiah is a better rebounder and shot-blocker than a very good rebounder and shot-blocker. And I think she has the strength & stamina to produce those kind of numbers for however many minutes Geno plays her. With all the inside opportunities Kiah should get, I'm hoping for a bounce in the FT success rate (which still isn't horrible at 69.8%).

Also:
Stat Steph/Kiah
FG% 56.4/60.0
T/O 3.19/1.99 (per 40)

A continuation of the above from Kiah over more minutes, some improvement in FT%, Moriah & Saniya continuing their superb distribution numbers and I think UConn will play a slightly different offensive game (not much different, as Stewie had better assist/TO numbers than Steph) at the same level as last year. Add in Morgan (more excitement for me!) and the talented freshmen and there's no telling how high they could go.

I think that Kiah is a better rebounder than Stef and also a better shot blocker. I don't think the difference is quite as much as those figures suggest because I think Stef's presence enhanced Kiah's numbers but there is a big difference in Kiah's passing versus Stef's (Stef has an appreciable advantage) and a smaller advantage for Stef over Kiah in the scoring department. The scoring advantage may be lessened if Kiah builds some confidence and gets more aggressive offensively. She may even put up scoring numbers equaling or surpassing Stef. My main concern would be on distributing the ball where Stef excelled as very few "bigs" have that I've seen. Hopefully Kiah will be a nice surprise in that area.

 

[Buzzyboy]

I agree with the person who said that absent injuries, UConn is a couple of steps ahead of the field.I don't think there's any question at all that ND makes it to the Final Four. The only question is how good they will be with their young players before the end of the season. There are a number of other teams that can fill the other two spots, but I'm thinking SC and TN right now, on the assumption that heir young players develop. But as everyone knows, Cinderella teams come along, and this just might be the year fr that to happen.

I really don't know why there's such a presumption that Notre Dame will be in the Final Four. They lost two people that were supremely savvy and integral parts of both the offense and defense of Notre Dame. Outside of their junior All-American Jewel Lloyd and Breanna Turner, their big freshman recruit (who may or may not prove to be special), the rest of the lineup doesn't come across as much more than role players. Maybe I'm underestimating them somewhat but I don't recall anyone returning other than Lloyd who has shown herself to be special. You definitely can't say that for UConn where there's potentially three seasoned potential All-Americans in their lineup. That would be Breanna, Moriah and KML. No one on Notre Dame, on the surface, comes close beyond Ms Lloyd. South Carolina is loaded and North Carolina and Tennessee have potential to be Final Four bound. That means Notre Dame may not be as sure a thing as you suggest. JMHO!

 

[Buzzyboy]

One factor to consider with per-40 minute statistics is that Dolson was frequently (if not almost always) putting her numbers up: 1) against the opposition's starters and 2) throughout major minutes, where fatigue can be a factor at the end of games. Stokes had more minutes (than Dolson) against an opposing team's bench players and did not have to play the major minutes that Dolson did, when efficiency may go down a little toward the ends of games.

Remember, Dolson played over 32 minutes per game, most on the UConn squad last year.




Dolson had 135 assists last year. The team's center had 3.38 assists per game. As a comparison point amongst centers, Elizabeth Williams has 175 assists for her career (three years). Natalie Achonwa had 269 assists in four years.

One thing that cannot be measured (at least without advanced metrics) is how the UConn offense flowed with Dolson on the floor and the corresponding adjustments teams had to make. Remember, because Dolson was a threat from outside the paint, teams had face guard her, otherwise she would simply nail 15-17' jumpers all day long. Stokes does not have that consistent range on her shot, meaning teams can sag off of her. This allows a defender to have less room to travel in order to provide help defense at the basket when Moriah Jefferson is driving to the hoop; it allows the defense to bring over a defender more quickly.

Also is Stokes starting set in stone? Why not Tuck?

Natalie Ochonwa really evolved in her last couple of years at Notre Dame. Some of that may have been because of her involvement on the Canadian National Team. Her minutes in her freshman and sophomore years was nowhere near what Stef's were. I'm a big Stef fan and agree with most of your points but felt that Natalie developed later and I wish you had numbers for her last two years where I think you would have seen how much she had developed over her first two years where she was just a marginal player.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Cable, Mabrey (and her sister), Allen, and Loyd are excellent talented players--did you see loyd's stats and play in the NC??--McGraw has done as well recruiting as she did in the past. Her skill is allowing Freshmen to play some minutes and develop. Yet, I doubt most Uconn fans will allow that ND's rating this past year, and characteristics in the past 4 final fours, put them in Uconn's stable??? Winners win, they don't place or show ---no one remembers who came in second (except those who are #2)

The only player that you mentioned that I think ranks as an "excellent talented player" would be Lloyd. The others may evolve but nothing they've done suggests that they are excellent players. That terminology would only apply to players that have shown themselves to be at least potential all league players if not All-American type players. McBride and Anchowna were really big losses because they were huge on both sides of the ball and either they or Lloyd could take over a game at times. I don't see those other players you mentioned there at this time as capable of taking over a game and question whether they will ever get there. Notre Dame is getting good players but outside of Brianna Turner and the afore mentioned Lloyd, is there anyone who you can anoint as special?????

 

[tomcat]

Not necessarily, but don't discount the coach, who is very, very good and capable of getting a lot out of young talent. To a certain extent, this is really, 'If not ND, who?" North Carolina? Oh, please. Stanford, well, maybe, if a lot of maybes pan out by the end of the year. UCLA? Again, maybe. Notre Dame is not a complete polished team, at least at this point, but Im not sure that aside from UConn, anyone else is, either.

 

[tennparker3]

UConn, ND, Texas A&M, Tennessee are my early picks.

Holly will come out from the shadows her disaster filled seasons of elite eight and sweet sixteen teams and finally get this team to a final four. (sarcasm notice)
Texas A&M has a 1,2,3 punch that can match anybody
ND gets the best freshman in Turner (I believe she is better than Wilson) to go along with Loyd, Reimer, Mabrey, and Allen. Westbeld is a smart player who will fit in well.
UConn has Stewart and KML. Could say more but no need to.

Tennessee has a great mix of Senior and Junior leadership this year to mix with young big time talent. Diamond is the second best player in the country (I said it long before I ever believed she would be a LV and it's my opinion, does not have to be yours.) and her talent and the fact that she has an already well noted connection with the team will only help make them better. Jones, Nared, Tucker, and Dunbar in particular will gain great experience going up against her everyday in practice. This is a the third year with this staff and finally point guard depth quality and consistent three point threats are not areas of concern. Offensive structure, as anyone will say, and the changes supposedly being made will make or break the Lady Vols this year.

 

[connboy77]

I doubt it. I think she is a great player. I thought as season wore on she was great for a frosh. Exect everyyear she is a tremendous.

No one is saying that Diamond isn't a great player with a lot of talent, but she is also a me player interested more in her own stats then the team. She also doesn't like to be told what to do. It will be interesting to see what is going to happen the first time the first time the Tennessee coaches say no to her. Maybe I'm wrong and she will buy into the team concept. If that happens Tennessee will be a final four team.

 

[meyers7]

View attachment 6383

most freshman get to much hype, and fans expect them to walk on water. I like the message the video sends

I never figured out what the message was supposed to be.

 

[Fightin Choke]

I really don't know why there's such a presumption that Notre Dame will be in the Final Four. They lost two people that were supremely savvy and integral parts of both the offense and defense of Notre Dame. Outside of their junior All-American Jewel Lloyd and Breanna Turner, their big freshman recruit (who may or may not prove to be special), the rest of the lineup doesn't come across as much more than role players. Maybe I'm underestimating them somewhat but I don't recall anyone returning other than Lloyd who has shown herself to be special. You definitely can't say that for UConn where there's potentially three seasoned potential All-Americans in their lineup. That would be Breanna, Moriah and KML. No one on Notre Dame, on the surface, comes close beyond Ms Lloyd. South Carolina is loaded and North Carolina and Tennessee have potential to be Final Four bound. That means Notre Dame may not be as sure a thing as you suggest. JMHO!

I think there is presumption that ND will be in the FF because the past 2 years the consensus belief was the Notre Dame would take a step back (ranked out of top 5 each year) and then they surprised both times. When Peters, Novosel, and Mallory graduated (leaving only starters Diggins and McBride), ND was still strong. Achonwa really stepped up, Braker came out of no where to become a good, gritty starter, and freshman Loyd took the last starter spot (and won FOY). The next season, ND adapted to life without Diggins by taking an undefeated record into the NC game. Lindsey Allen "replaced" Diggins, and did a great job on offense and defense (considering she was a freshman PG). This year, ND has to replace 3 starters again, but the cupboard seems less bare this year, as Muffet has been recruiting very well these past 3 years. Reimer starts in place of Achonwa. She was no where near as good as Achonwa last season, but her numbers were better than Achonwa's freshman (or sophomore) numbers. Taya will have to develop, but many players make a HUGE leap their sophomore season (see, Stewart, Breanna, Jefferson, Moriah, and Loyd, Jewell). Loyd was a star last year. Allen played very well, and if she makes a sophomore leap, ND will be set at the point. McBride's spot will be filled by a combination of Cable and Mabrey. Michaela really improved her game last season, so she's probably ready to start at this point. The last starter ND has to replace is Braker. Brianna Turner is upgrade when you consider height, jumping ability, and offensive ability. The only things she lacks are Braker's savvy and grit. There will be rough patches starting a freshman, but Muffet has done it the last 2 seasons (Loyd, then Allen), and it's worked out just fine.

The reason why you only see one star at Notre Dame is because 3 starters graduated, leaving only a freshman PG and the aforementioned star (Loyd). Stars need minutes to show their stuff, and I'll bet that another starter or two shines given the opportunity.

 

[reno tony]

I don't think there will be too much pressure on Kiah this season. All she will have to do is defend and block shots up to the foul line. Make outlet passes after her 12 DRB per game. Score the occasional basket after her 6 ORB per game. Maybe make a screen once in a while. UCONN has a stable full of players, including a six guard rotation, that can handle all the passing and scoring they will need to win every game. And, Morgan Tuck, who I think will be an AA this year.

45 TO GO​

 

[rford53]

UConn, ND, Texas A&M, Tennessee are my early picks.

Holly will come out from the shadows her disaster filled seasons of elite eight and sweet sixteen teams and finally get this team to a final four. (sarcasm notice)
Texas A&M has a 1,2,3 punch that can match anybody
ND gets the best freshman in Turner (I believe she is better than Wilson) to go along with Loyd, Reimer, Mabrey, and Allen. Westbeld is a smart player who will fit in well.
UConn has Stewart and KML. Could say more but no need to.

Tennessee has a great mix of Senior and Junior leadership this year to mix with young big time talent. Diamond is the second best player in the country (I said it long before I ever believed she would be a LV and it's my opinion, does not have to be yours.) and her talent and the fact that she has an already well noted connection with the team will only help make them better. Jones, Nared, Tucker, and Dunbar in particular will gain great experience going up against her everyday in practice. This is a the third year with this staff and finally point guard depth quality and consistent three point threats are not areas of concern. Offensive structure, as anyone will say, and the changes supposedly being made will make or break the Lady Vols this year.

You do know Diamond can't play this year, so including her in your evaluation of the lady vols weakens your analysis as it lowers their chances of making the final four!

 

[rford53]

No one is saying that Diamond isn't a great player with a lot of talent, but she is also a me player interested more in her own stats then the team. She also doesn't like to be told what to do. It will be interesting to see what is going to happen the first time the first time the Tennessee coaches say no to her. Maybe I'm wrong and she will buy into the team concept. If that happens Tennessee will be a final four team.

You mean a final four team in 2016? Likely.

 

[Buzzyboy]

I think there is presumption that ND will be in the FF because the past 2 years the consensus belief was the Notre Dame would take a step back (ranked out of top 5 each year) and then they surprised both times. When Peters, Novosel, and Mallory graduated (leaving only starters Diggins and McBride), ND was still strong. Achonwa really stepped up, Braker came out of no where to become a good, gritty starter, and freshman Loyd took the last starter spot (and won FOY). The next season, ND adapted to life without Diggins by taking an undefeated record into the NC game. Lindsey Allen "replaced" Diggins, and did a great job on offense and defense (considering she was a freshman PG). This year, ND has to replace 3 starters again, but the cupboard seems less bare this year, as Muffet has been recruiting very well these past 3 years. Reimer starts in place of Achonwa. She was no where near as good as Achonwa last season, but her numbers were better than Achonwa's freshman (or sophomore) numbers. Taya will have to develop, but many players make a HUGE leap their sophomore season (see, Stewart, Breanna, Jefferson, Moriah, and Loyd, Jewell). Loyd was a star last year. Allen played very well, and if she makes a sophomore leap, ND will be set at the point. McBride's spot will be filled by a combination of Cable and Mabrey. Michaela really improved her game last season, so she's probably ready to start at this point. The last starter ND has to replace is Braker. Brianna Turner is upgrade when you consider height, jumping ability, and offensive ability. The only things she lacks are Braker's savvy and grit. There will be rough patches starting a freshman, but Muffet has done it the last 2 seasons (Loyd, then Allen), and it's worked out just fine.

The reason why you only see one star at Notre Dame is because 3 starters graduated, leaving only a freshman PG and the aforementioned star (Loyd). Stars need minutes to show their stuff, and I'll bet that another starter or two shines given the opportunity.

You may be right. I just think it's a little presumptuous to ASSUME by some, that it will happen. You noted Notre Dame's losses of two years ago and I don't think the talent level of those losses (Peters, Novasel and Mallory) was nearly as severe as the losses they had experienced last year, when I admit I was surprised. Their performance throughout last year was outstanding and as mentioned, a big surprise to me and others. As I said, it could happen that this year Notre Dame may be outstanding but I wouldn't take it for granted that all these kids are going to step it up and be highly successful. UConn has a vaunted recruiting class coming in but I don't think too many people are ready to assume that they will be highly successful. They don't have to be great because of the core of returning players for UConn to be highly successful. Some kids surprise and other kids disappoint because recruiting is an inexact art that could see expected stars never measure up to their expectations. Time will tell!

 

[AnotherVolFan]

You do know Diamond can't play this year, so including her in your evaluation of the lady vols weakens your analysis as it lowers their chances of making the final four!

From the post I think they were referring to Diamond getting to practice with the girls this upcoming season, not play with them......