2015 final 4 -- what teams?

[meyers7]

Sorry, El Gris, this is one of the 2 major reasons I'm excited to see how this season plays out:

Per-40-minutes statistics:

Stat Steph/Kiah
ORB 2.60/4.98
DRB 8.88/10.40
TRB 11.41/15.38
Blk 2.88/4.92

Kiah is a better rebounder and shot-blocker than a very good rebounder and shot-blocker. And I think she has the strength & stamina to produce those kind of numbers for however many minutes Geno plays her. With all the inside opportunities Kiah should get, I'm hoping for a bounce in the FT success rate (which still isn't horrible at 69.8%).

Also:
Stat Steph/Kiah
FG% 56.4/60.0
T/O 3.19/1.99 (per 40)

A continuation of the above from Kiah over more minutes, some improvement in FT%, Moriah & Saniya continuing their superb distribution numbers and I think UConn will play a slightly different offensive game (not much different, as Stewie had better assist/TO numbers than Steph) at the same level as last year. Add in Morgan (more excitement for me!) and the talented freshmen and there's no telling how high they could go.

I agree with you on the top numbers. Stokes is a better rebounder and shot blocker, though Dolson was no slouch. But the second set of numbers (FG%, T/O) I don't think you can compare. Dolson's range on her shots was much more than Stokes. Also as was stated the offense ran through Dolson quite a bit, a lot more than Stokes. Meaning Dolson had lots more touches than Stokes and lots more opportunities for T/Os. We'll have to see this year how Stokes is used. I imagine her T/Os will go up. Her FG% should stay the same, unless she tries to shoot out farther, then I would expect it to drop some. I expect Stokes to play a lot closer to the basket than Dolson did.

 

[JRRRJ]

I agree with you on the top numbers. Stokes is a better rebounder and shot blocker, though Dolson was no slouch. But the second set of numbers (FG%, T/O) I don't think you can compare. Dolson's range on her shots was much more than Stokes. Also as was stated the offense ran through Dolson quite a bit, a lot more than Stokes. Meaning Dolson had lots more touches than Stokes and lots more opportunities for T/Os. We'll have to see this year how Stokes is used. I imagine her T/Os will go up. Her FG% should stay the same, unless she tries to shoot out farther, then I would expect it to drop some. I expect Stokes to play a lot closer to the basket than Dolson did.

Re: the FG%, your qualifications don't matter to the team, they're individual points. Kiah's choice of shots resulted in balls in the cylinder more frequently. I'll grant some veracity to the the TO point though, as Kiah passed much less than Steph. (But only some, since many of Steph's TO's were due to her propensity to dribble across the top of the key and get stolen or dribble off someone's foot. )

Agree on Kiah's likely use -- given all the shooters on the team, her strength, athleticism, and mobility, it would be silly to pull her away from the basket much.

 

[iamcbs]

This is a similar debate to to Tiger in his prime, UConn or the Field? Who ya got?

 

[sawxfan23]

UConn's offense often ran through Stef. She will not be easily replaced.

I didn't say she will be easily replaced.

 

[Zorro]

Don't be sorry, RJJJR, I am with you 100%. Was just leaning over backwards to point out that even in the worst case scenario the Huskies will be awesome.

 

[CL82]

UConn's offense often ran through Stef. She will not be easily replaced.

Very true but that didn't happen in the post. UConn took advantage of Steph's passing. Stokes will be a will a more traditional big. As JRRJ's numbers show, she doesn't hurt us in that role.

 

[genosguy]

.

I think South Carolina and Tenn are a year away from final 4 form. The kids at SC don't have the experience yet, same is true of Tn
I think Kentucky has a shot and Duke . I think the ND vote is based on the last 3 years . But no achonwa, McBride, diggins, novesel, Becca, etc--the mystique of ND may be fading. North Carolina has 6 kids that have been to the final 4. Diamond transferred to Tn and can't play for another year. Tn also has a Duke transfer who can't play this coming year. Stanford doesn't show on the ballot they are always (in the past 10 years) been among those getting into the final 4. It would not surprise me if they too showed up .

 

[Sonny44]

It will if Aja Wilson comes through in her freshman season for South Carolina, and it will if Mercedes Russell comes through in her sophomore season for Tennessee. They have the size and talent to challenge UConn. I don't know if Notre Dame has the size and talent without Natalie Ochunwa and Kayla McBride.

Wilson's not eligable, is she?

 

[genosguy]

Re: the FG%, your qualifications don't matter to the team, they're individual points. Kiah's choice of shots resulted in balls in the cylinder more frequently. I'll grant some veracity to the the TO point though, as Kiah passed much less than Steph. (But only some, since many of Steph's TO's were due to her propensity to dribble across the top of the key and get stolen or dribble off someone's foot. )

Agree on Kiah's likely use -- given all the shooters on the team, her strength, athleticism, and mobility, it would be silly to pull her away from the basket much.

Stokes came on at the end of the year (NCAA) with more scoring and has a nice hook and apparently learned from Dailey how to catch turn and shoot. She shall always be a defender and rebound expert. Her passing, at years end was excellent. I always wanted Kiah to succeed and play more--she finally got the time and played really well. I expect her to come back with better offensive skills, an attitude to be more aggressive (both offensive and defensive). But no one will have Steff's grin or smile she showed playing for Geno can be great fun..

 

[Vowelguy]

Wilson's not eligable, is she?

Huh?
Why wouldn't she be eligible?

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Per-40-minutes statistics:

Stat Steph/Kiah
ORB 2.60/4.98
DRB 8.88/10.40
TRB 11.41/15.38
Blk 2.88/4.92

Also:
Stat Steph/Kiah
FG% 56.4/60.0
T/O 3.19/1.99 (per 40)

One factor to consider with per-40 minute statistics is that Dolson was frequently (if not almost always) putting her numbers up: 1) against the opposition's starters and 2) throughout major minutes, where fatigue can be a factor at the end of games. Stokes had more minutes (than Dolson) against an opposing team's bench players and did not have to play the major minutes that Dolson did, when efficiency may go down a little toward the ends of games.

Remember, Dolson played over 32 minutes per game, most on the UConn squad last year.

Also as was stated the offense ran through Dolson quite a bit, a lot more than Stokes. Meaning Dolson had lots more touches than Stokes and lots more opportunities for T/Os. We'll have to see this year how Stokes is used.

Dolson had 135 assists last year. The team's center had 3.38 assists per game. As a comparison point amongst centers, Elizabeth Williams has 175 assists for her career (three years). Natalie Achonwa had 269 assists in four years.

One thing that cannot be measured (at least without advanced metrics) is how the UConn offense flowed with Dolson on the floor and the corresponding adjustments teams had to make. Remember, because Dolson was a threat from outside the paint, teams had face guard her, otherwise she would simply nail 15-17' jumpers all day long. Stokes does not have that consistent range on her shot, meaning teams can sag off of her. This allows a defender to have less room to travel in order to provide help defense at the basket when Moriah Jefferson is driving to the hoop; it allows the defense to bring over a defender more quickly.

Also is Stokes starting set in stone? Why not Tuck?

 

[meyers7]

Re: the FG%, your qualifications don't matter to the team, they're individual points. Kiah's choice of shots resulted in balls in the cylinder more frequently.

They matter in comparing Stokes to Dolson. Which you were doing. Right?

Comparing the shooting % of one who shoots from about 10 ft in, vs one who shoots all the way out to the 3 pt line. Very different. And not really applicable.

I'll grant some veracity to the the TO point though, as Kiah passed much less than Steph. (But only some, since many of Steph's TO's were due to her propensity to dribble across the top of the key and get stolen or dribble off someone's foot. )

I would hope so. Also some of Dolson's T/O's were in setting "illegal" screens. I doubt Stokes will be quite the screen setter Dolson was.

It's easy to see why there was a disparity in the numbers between the two. If the numbers would have been the opposite, then that would have been something to take a look at.

 

[meyers7]

I think South Carolina and Tenn are a year away from final 4 form. The kids at SC don't have the experience yet, same is true of Tn

Agree, but having trouble coming up with other teams that may be FF material. So by default.

I think Kentucky has a shot and Duke .

What? Duke without a proven guard. Not just PG, but guard of any kind. They have basically Johnson (SR), a JC xfr and Greenwell a FR (r/s).
Kentucky? That would be a real big jump for them. They lost most of their frontline in Stallworth and Walker. And they didn't make it to the E8 last year.

North Carolina has 6 kids that have been to the final 4.

Huh????? Like who? NC hasn't been to a FF since like what '07?

 

[JoePgh]

I think Kiah will be used on offense in much the same way as Tina Charles was used, especially before her senior year. She rarely came higher than 7-8 feet from the basket, and "flashed" across the lane repeatedly to face the ball, often occupying "one and a half" defenders. She was an effective screener, but she didn't do ball screens near the 3-point line; she sealed off one side of the lane to allow guards to drive through the other side.

I agree that Kiah can get at least 10 points a game (playing 30 minutes) just through "garbage collection" -- putbacks and layups when the defense gets preoccupied with other threats -- and also running the floor in transition. (I remember CD saying that Kiah can "run like a deer", something that would never be said about Stef.) I think she can have a number of 15 and 20-point games, even against good competition, just by scoring in these ways. And I think she can hold any other center in the country (including EW, Harrison, and Coates) well below their average in points.

I think passing and decision-making in the offense will be left to others, as it was with Tina. Geno certainly knew how to make the offense work with Tina doing just what I've suggested for Kiah. It's different, but not necessarily less efficient, than what he did with Stef.

 

[alexrgct]

The "which team will be better" question has been done over and over, but the issues is as follows:

• UConn returns four players of its core of six.
• UConn is losing Two WBCA AAs, the DPOY, and two of the top seven WNBA draft picks.
• However, UConn returns the best player in the country who only figures to get better.
• UConn returns KML, a superstar when 100%, and who finished last season strong.
• UConn returns Moriah Jefferson, who is growing in leaps and bounds.
• UConn returns Kiah Stokes, who was terrific in the tourney and will shine at her position.
• From the bench, Morgan Tuck figures to be infinitely more useful by virtue of improved health, and Chong may just take a leap forward.
• Meanwhile, there is an incoming freshman class of four ESPN HG five-stars, some or all of whom ought to be able to contribute.
• The conclusion: more weapons, more pieces, and more depth, all of which seem ample quantitative and qualitative compensation for Bria's and Stef's departures.
• In 2013-14, it wasn't UConn and everyone else; it was UConn and UConn. Who from last year is going to catch up to the team that may well be even more talented and deep next season?
• Finally, I've mentioned it before, and I'll do it again. After the 2001-02 season, UConn lost the NPOY, multiple AAs, and four of the top six overall WNBA draft picks. The losses were so devastating that UConn won the next two national championships without those players. I love Stef and Bria, but their graduations are not the same as losing Sue Bird, Swin Cash, Asjha Jones, and Tamika Williams.

 

[John Glass]

I think South Carolina and Tenn are a year away from final 4 form. The kids at SC don't have the experience yet, same is true of Tn
I think Kentucky has a shot and Duke . I think the ND vote is based on the last 3 years . But no achonwa, McBride, diggins, novesel, Becca, etc--the mystique of ND may be fading. .

Notre Dame destroyed Maryland without Achonwa . Lloyd is a great player, and checkout their freshman class:

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Loyd, Reimer, Allen, Turner, Westbeld, Mabrey.....Notre Dame still has plenty of talent and is well coached. If Turner and Westbeld break out early, the Irish should be the biggest roadblock again.

And none of the aforementioned players are seniors so the 2015 Irish should be ever better.

 

[Coler]

I can see Rutgers making a run if in the right bracket. We returned everyone but one bench, and added some pieces.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

I can see Rutgers making a run if in the right bracket. We returned everyone but one bench, and added some pieces.

Has Rutgers added anyone who can make an outside shot? Hard to fathom a team that was as poor shooting from +15 feet last year making a run.

 

[JRRRJ]

They matter in comparing Stokes to Dolson. Which you were doing. Right? ?

Comparing the shooting % of one who shoots from about 10 ft in, vs one who shoots all the way out to the 3 pt line. Very different. And not really applicable.

My perspective is game descriptions hardly ever read "They lost, 54-60, but wowed the home crowd by making a bunch of 15-17 footers."

Cam's observations about changing the way other teams defend UConn have some weight, but unless you have a player who is a) bigger or b) stronger or c) able to jump higher than Kiah can reach (none come immediately to mind, at least not on opposing teams), you've always gotta be alert for the entry pass and can't sag very far off, if you elect to do so.

None of this is meant to give the impression Kiah is a better center than Steph. They are very different style centers and "better" in this case is a very complex question. I have just been pointing out that replacing Steph with Kiah will not allow opponents to think they have it easier -- I see no significant fall-off in offensive options once Geno adjusts the playbook to fit the team's strengths, and I think defense might be a shade better.

 

[RadyLady]

...I think the ND vote is based on the last 3 years . But no achonwa, McBride, diggins, novesel, Becca, etc--the mystique of ND may be fading..... .

Oh I don't think so...I mean when sg left folks said Notre Dame was done and they weren't, and now Mcbride and Natalie are gone and folks here again are saying they're done. I just don't think so. Now McGraw, much as I've disliked her over the years, she appears to be a good coach and she gets the best out of her players. Lloyd is very very talented and I'm sure they will make a splash, possibly to the Final Four but I doubt they will beat UConn.

 

[ASweet3781]

I'll be surprised if the Final 4 is not made up out of UConn, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Tennessee. UNC would have been in that group too had DeShields not transferred.

 

[stwainfan]

I'm glad DeShields did transfer If she stays three years she could be one of the best ever at Tennessee.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

I have just been pointing out that replacing Steph with Kiah will not allow opponents to think they have it easier -- I see no significant fall-off in offensive options once Geno adjusts the playbook to fit the team's strengths, and I think defense might be a shade better.

The big difference is that there is no Stokes/Dolson combo, either as a pair or successively in a game. Foul trouble or performance issues will be far more magnified, at least in the middle. UConn will likely have to add wrinkles to their game to make up the difference. Chong becoming a consistent playmaker would be a big help.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I'm glad DeShields did transfer If she stays three years she could be one of the best ever at Tennessee.

That's a big IF.