18-13

[Storrs South]

Would need a marquee win against Wichita, Cincy, or Nova in my opinion. And an SMU win at home wouldn’t hurt.

I think there is a verryyyy slim chance of tourney this year but we can hope.

I agree. The post wasn't to illustrate that I believe this will happen but more that all 3 possibilities are still in play and are somewhat realistic:

• They can make the tourney (would be hard but despite botching OOC the opponents and opportunities are still there)
• NIT (likely just need to be over .500 and appealing enough for them to want a brand name at their tourney)
• A repeat of last season -- season ending in a loss in the AAC Tournament

The game last night gives me hope for the middle option as I was certain we were slated for door #3. That being said, if they play like they did last night going forward with steady improvement (a big if), option #1 isn't out of the realm of possibilities.

 

[Ewekon]

UConn isn't .500 year end. No top 30 recruits next year. On it will go.

 

[Fishy]

Well... at least we haven’t hit rock bottom yet. 9-7 (2-2) is slightly better than 8-9 (0-4) I suppose.

They definitely have worse losses than we do and I suspect we’re a little better...but we’d likely be 0-4 with their conference schedule, too.

 

[Chief00]

I am trying to be optimistic - I think we will marginally surprise on the upside as our chemistry improves with a shorten rotation.

 

[scdono]

Let me ask you this: does a team with an RPI 57 and SOS 30 with a 18-13 record make the NCAA Tournament? Because if you play around with the numbers at RPI Forecast that's where UConn could end up. I'm not saying that's going to happen, especially since we have seen 1 quality win since November (it happened last night), but just know all possibilities are still in play. For those wondering what assumptions I used ROS:

Win @ Tulane
Win @ Memphis
Loss v. Nova
Loss v. SMU
Win @ Temple
Loss @UCF
Loss v. Cincy
Win v. USF
Loss @ Wichita St.
Win v. Tulsa
Win v. ECU
Loss @ Cincy
Win v. Memphis
Win v. Temple
Win @Houston

While I’m not sure we beat temple twice, we clearly have a chance to make some noise. If things come together, 17-20 wins is not out of the realm of possibility. Chemistry and team growth will be the key. They need to bring it for 40 minutes and limit the bonehead plays and play lockdown defense.

 

[AdamaNation]

As long as the kids are having fun and getting some exercise everything will be okay.

Laugh line

 

[mdkhusky]

Sad that people are hopeful for NIT. And this is the coach some of you want back?

 

[Woof 101]

Would a final regular season record of 18-13 get us into the NIT?

WOW....No attack on you but this gives me flashbacks of early fandom days in The Yankee Conference. The dream was to just make the top 25 and be mentioned in the national picture. That would include making The NCAA tournament or The NIT which at the time still meant something. We got there and beyond any of my dreams by winning a NC and more.
With 68 teams now included in the NCAA event the NIT is now The Nobody Interested. I am still a fan and listen to games on the radio for the ones not on my cable package. I will not however be jumping up and down or the least bit excited about making the NIT. Jaded, spoiled, I don't know. I watch a lot of college ball but no longer consider that tournament to be of much value. The NIT is simply practice for next year, nothing more.

 

[intlzncster]

Sad that people are hopeful for NIT. And this is the coach some of you want back?

Why even watch then? What's the point?

 

[tzznandrew]

Sad that people are hopeful for NIT. And this is the coach some of you want back?

I forgot, we thought they were going to win a title this year, right? Especially after Gilbert went down.

Seriously, the NIT sucks, but it would show improvement from last year.

 

[HungryHuskies]

Sky's the limit. They still have some opportunities to grab some quality resume builders. I'm predicting (hoping) this team is going to click at the right time in typical Ollie fashion.

 

[jibsey]

It was a nice home win, but if we were to beat Cincy or take the Nova game to the wire, and until we can compete with a quality team, I’m not there yet for .500, forget 18-13

 

[uconnbill]

If UConn can get decent three-point shooting they have a chance, but without it, they are bound for something similar to last year.

 

[UconnFanDC]

Hold me too this, Uconn will have a 20 win season!

 

[CTBasketball]

I think Nova will be the turning point. If we get our doors blown off that’s a bad sign. If we play and win, I think we have a chance at 20 wins.

 

[intlzncster]

It was a nice home win, but if we were to beat Cincy or take the Nova game to the wire, and until we can compete with a quality team, I’m not there yet for .500, forget 18-13

I don't think the Nova game will tell us anything. They are on another level entirely atm.

 

[Balker]

I don't think the Nova game will tell us anything. They are on another level entirely atm.

Possible outcomes to Nova game:
1. get blown out by 35
2. keep it close and lose by 10 but never feel we had a chance
3. control the game then collapse in the last 2 minutes
4. kwintin williams goes for 24 on 12/12 FG shooting (all dunks of course) and we win

All of these potential outcomes told me something.

In all seriousness, Nova isn't perfect. They don't have a big 4-5 guy that's going to kill us down low. If we guard them well, turn them over, and shoot well, there is no reason at all we can't win. We matchup well. Plus the game will mean a heck of a lot more for us than them, and it's at home. And it's Nova... this is a Big East matchup. Anyone could win it easily.

 

[intlzncster]

Possible outcomes to Nova game:
1. get blown out by 35
2. keep it close and lose by 10 but never feel we had a chance
3. control the game then collapse in the last 2 minutes
4. kwintin williams goes for 24 on 12/12 FG shooting (all dunks of course) and we win

All of these potential outcomes told me something.

In all seriousness, Nova isn't perfect. They don't have a big 4-5 guy that's going to kill us down low. If we guard them well, turn them over, and shoot well, there is no reason at all we can't win. We matchup well. Plus the game will mean a heck of a lot more for us than them, and it's at home. And it's Nova... this is a Big East matchup. Anyone could win it easily.

This is what I'm looking at.

Yikes. They might shoot 70% against us. We don't match up well with that.

 

[Storrs South]

Nova isn't perfect. They don't have a big 4-5 guy that's going to kill us down low.

Here's the thing, though, all these years KO has been the coach, the one thing he has never let happen is superior bigs dominating the limited one's he has to work with. This season in particular, all these physically imposing bigs like Bridges and Ayton have done nothing. Even think back to Randle in 2014 was smothered for the entirety of the championship game and I believe Young in the Final Four v. Florida was the same.

The problem this team has currently is perimeter defense. They can't keep guys in front of them causing the defense to collapse and thus allow open 3s. Brunson can feast on that unless guys decide to start guarding the ball better.

 

[intlzncster]

The problem this team has currently is perimeter defense. They can't keep guys in front of them causing the defense to collapse and thus allow open 3s. Brunson can feast on that unless guys decide to start guarding the ball better.

Ain't just Brunson. See my post above yours.

 

[Balker]

Here's the thing, though, all these years KO has been the coach, the one thing he has never let happen is superior bigs dominating the limited one's he has to work with. This season in particular, all these physically imposing bigs like Bridges and Ayton have done nothing. Even think back to Randle in 2014 was smothered for the entirety of the championship game and I believe Young in the Final Four v. Florida was the same.

The problem this team has currently is perimeter defense. They can't keep guys in front of them causing the defense to collapse and thus allow open 3s. Brunson can feast on that unless guys decide to start guarding the ball better.

True enough. I still think Nova is a winnable game though. Our guys will (hopefully) be fired up and have spent a whole season underperforming at historic levels. They've only got so many chances to make it up and their careers, to some small extent, kind of depend on it.

It's the beauty of college ball. So much on the line. So many unknowns. At the end of the day, they aren't really that much more talented than we are. Just a lot better team through half a season.

To clarify... I do NOT think we will win the Nova game. I just don't think that whatever BPI nonsense prediction of 99.999% Villanova win is remotely accurate. Think it's more like 89%

 

[HooperScooper]

If we guard them well, turn them over, and shoot well, there is no reason at all we can't win.

So tell us which games UConn has done that in?

The defense has been better. But UCF and ECU are awful offensive teams so I don't know how much we can take out of those games.

 

[pj]

Sad that people are hopeful for NIT. And this is the coach some of you want back?

NIT is a big step up from where we appeared to be in May 2017. It was a big step up for Jim Calhoun in 1988. Sometimes coaches and teams have to progress up the lower rungs of the ladder before they get to the pinnacle.

 

[Balker]

So tell us which games UConn has done that in?

The defense has been better. But UCF and ECU are awful offensive teams so I don't know how much we can take out of those games.

One half against MSU. Oregon. Most of the Zona game. I mean I'm not gonna sit here and say we've had a good year, you surely know as well as I do we've played like crap and there are a lot more questions than answers on January 12th.

But I don't think I'm as devoid as hope as some of us are here. I've seen stretches of a decent team. I watched the Zona game in a bar when I was out of town. A national audience was watching the game as if it were any other game against two top programs. That's what it looked like, and they weren't nearly as jaded about our program as we've become. But I've seen progress in the last few weeks. Especially over the last two games, almost every player on our roster has looked substantially better. Particularly hopeful is seeing a 7-8 man rotation that half makes sense and is working hard to get better together. I'm hopeful we can keep improving and shock some people on Jan 20th.

To reiterate. I fully expect to lose to Nova. But I'll be pumped up and feeling like we've got a shot to give the season some life.

 

[auror]

True enough. I still think Nova is a winnable game though. Our guys will (hopefully) be fired up and have spent a whole season underperforming at historic levels. They've only got so many chances to make it up and their careers, to some small extent, kind of depend on it.

It's the beauty of college ball. So much on the line. So many unknowns. At the end of the day, they aren't really that much more talented than we are. Just a lot better team through half a season.

To clarify... I do NOT think we will win the Nova game. I just don't think that whatever BPI nonsense prediction of 99.999% Villanova win is remotely accurate. Think it's more like 89%

We're going to be like 15 point underdogs at home against Nova.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Let me ask you this: does a team with an RPI 57 and SOS 30 with a 18-13 record make the NCAA Tournament? Because if you play around with the numbers at RPI Forecast that's where UConn could end up. I'm not saying that's going to happen, especially since we have seen 1 quality win since November (it happened last night), but just know all possibilities are still in play. For those wondering what assumptions I used ROS:

Win @ Tulane
Win @ Memphis
Loss v. Nova
Loss v. SMU
Win @ Temple
Loss @UCF
Loss v. Cincy
Win v. USF
Loss @ Wichita St.
Win v. Tulsa
Win v. ECU
Loss @ Cincy
Win v. Memphis
Win v. Temple
Win @Houston

So win on the road at Houston. The team that beat Tulsa by 30 last night? Much easier to beat SMU at home or UCF on the road. Houston looks like the 3rd team in to me.

 

[HuskyHawk]

WOW....No attack on you but this gives me flashbacks of early fandom days in The Yankee Conference. The dream was to just make the top 25 and be mentioned in the national picture. That would include making The NCAA tournament or The NIT which at the time still meant something. We got there and beyond any of my dreams by winning a NC and more.
With 68 teams now included in the NCAA event the NIT is now The Nobody Interested. I am still a fan and listen to games on the radio for the ones not on my cable package. I will not however be jumping up and down or the least bit excited about making the NIT. Jaded, spoiled, I don't know. I watch a lot of college ball but no longer consider that tournament to be of much value. The NIT is simply practice for next year, nothing more.

In case you didn't notice, that's where we are. This is 1987-88. We are back 30 years in time. As a student then, I can say that I believe that winning the NIT is what put UConn over the edge. We never looked back after that, until now.

 

[Storrs South]

So win on the road at Houston. The team that beat Tulsa by 30 last night? Much easier to beat SMU at home or UCF on the road. Houston looks like the 3rd team in to me.

This is just one particular road map and it's entirely based on the team improving. Play like last night and progressively get better every game then this theoretical output is somewhat feasible. Play how they did every game between Oregon and UCF and we will be lucky if they finish over .500. I just wanted to illustrate that they don't need to win out again Wichita St., Cincy, and Nova to have a shot at the tourney.

 

[HuskyHawk]

This is just one particular road map and it's entirely based on the team improving. Play like last night and progressively get better every game then this theoretical output is somewhat feasible. Play how they did every game between Oregon and UCF and we will be lucky if they finish over .500. I just wanted to illustrate that they don't need to win out again Wichita St., Cincy, and Nova to have a shot at the tourney.

Other than that game, we can win every game you listed as a W. And we can win the two games I mentioned that you had as a L. Beyond that we'd need some sort of miracle.

I criticize Ollie quite a bit, and don't think he's a very good coach. That said, I thought this team had the players to win in the low 20's. Gilbert being out hurts that, but I think we can still get to 18-19. Temple is the only team in this league with a schedule nearly as tough as ours out of conference.

 

[PAHusky]

NIT is a big step up from where we appeared to be in May 2017. It was a big step up for Jim Calhoun in 1988. Sometimes coaches and teams have to progress up the lower rungs of the ladder before they get to the pinnacle.

Yes but that's the point. The situation isn't even remotely the same between 1988 and now. Calhoun was still building the program so of course it was a big step up, that's so obvious it barely needs to be said. KO inherited a program that, while it had suffered setbacks like the one year postseason ban, had won four national titles in the prior 15 years and had recruited at a level comparable to some blue bloods.

The NIT is a big step up from where we were in May 2017, no doubt. But Ollie himself put us in the position we were in in 2017! KO creates his own mess, blames lack of success on the mess he created, vows to improve, goes into this season with the same problematic issues that plagued last year's team, blames the mess he originally created.....and on and on.