This is going to be a down year for us, in relative terms. We lost three seniors to graduation including the Player of the Year in Shabazz Napier, and Niels Giffey who was a reliable Sixth Man/fill-in starter. We lost DeAndre Daniels when he left early. Boatright is back, but he was always iffy. And he's definitely not good enough to do too much by himself. The conference is weak. Best (realistic) case scenario in conference is we split with Memphis, Cincinnati and SMU and win all our other conference games. (Or sweep one of those three, get swept by another, and split with the third.) That puts us at 15-3 in conference. We probably won't beat Florida on the road or Duke at a neutral site. The tournament is impossible to predict for sure until the bracket comes out, which to my knowledge it hasn't, but looking at the opponents there's nobody we can't beat. Best case scenario is we win the tournament. Stanford I could see us beating, though it would be an upset. In a best-case scenario though, we win that game, finish non-conference play with three losses (Duke, Florida, and one tournament game.) That doesn't count the game we don't know. That puts us at about 25-5 heading into the AAC Tournament, which will be in Hartford, so we have a good chance. In the best realistic case scenario, we win the AAC Tournament, go 28-5, and will be at the mercy of the seeding committee again. Since the conference is even worse than last year, we might not get that good a seed in spite of a better record.
Worst (realistic) scenario is we lose to Duke, Florida, Stanford, and Texas, go 1-2 in the tournament, lose the game to the unknown opponent who may be good, and suffer one OOC upset to a weaker team and beat the other three. That puts us at 4-8 in OOC play. Then we get swept by Memphis, Cincy, and SMU, and have one or two bad conference losses to the other teams, probably on the road (maybe to USF who often gives us problems for some reason.) That puts us at 10-8 in conference and 14-16 overall, a losing record.
It will probably be somewhere in between. My prediction: lose to Duke, Florida, and Stanford, go 2-1 in the tournament, and win all other non-conference games including Texas. That puts us at 8-4 OOC. In conference, get swept Cincy, split with Memphis and SMU. Lose one game against the other teams (again, possibly USF on the road) because upsets are bound to happen. That puts us at 13-5 in conference and 21-9 overall heading into the tournament. Given the strength of the conference, we'd probably have to at least reach the final to get an at-large bid but that's doable considering it's in Hartford. Even at 23-10 overall and reaching the AAC final before losing, we might not get an at-large bid. Look at SMU not making the tournament last year. And look at us falling to a #7 seed. And this year's AAC is even worse.