12 days | Page 3 | The Boneyard
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12 days

champs99and04 said:
Based on what? It's going to be incredibly hard to win the AAC tournament assuming we're not already in a position to get a bid going in.

Again, people are over-estimating how hard it is to make the tournament. Providence got in last year with 12 losses. Illinois State nearly got in with one top 50 win. Michigan State lost 14 games and got a nine seed. Rhode Island got in from the A-10 with 9 losses.

If you look at the numbers right now, we're actually in good shape from an RPI standpoint. Only one debilitating cupcake on the schedule so far and that was Coppin State. Everybody else that we've played has their record distorted by the schedules they've played, but they should finish in the upper half of their leagues. The RPI practically rewards you for losing to good teams. All you need to do is beat the bad ones and take enough from the good ones and you're in. 1-1 on this coming road trip and 12-6 in the league and they're in.

As things stand, our biggest obstacle is the fact that we suck.
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The reasonable analytical take and the pesky punchline, all in one post. Goes back to what was said best in the off-season: just win on the court.
 
champs99and04 said:
Based on what? It's going to be incredibly hard to win the AAC tournament assuming we're not already in a position to get a bid going in.
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My thinking is if we lose our next 3, our hopes for an at-large bid are gone. But if we make continuous improvement over the next two months, we might have a shot in the tournament, especially if a better team or two gets upset.
 
Waquoit said:
My thinking is if we lose our next 3, our hopes for an at-large bid are gone. But if we make continuous improvement over the next two months, we might have a shot in the tournament, especially if a better team or two gets upset.
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In my mind, if we can get one on the road trip and then one of the two big home games (Wichita and Nova), we'd be in good shape. I can't see that happening so you might be right, unfortunately if we screw around in the regular season again, we won't be giving ourselves the chance to benefit from an upset because we'll be playing a really good team in round one.

Between Wichita, Cincy, SMU, Houston, and Temple all looking like top 50 type teams, I don't really see it as realistic to beat three of them in three days (not to mention a possible fourth game) with how limited we are. But they do tend to play better in the postseason.
 
LIuconn said:
Nothing will change if it hasn't already.

Can't make any call on AG at the moment. Hoping for the best but assuming the worst
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I disagree. I think, if players work hard and take the time to also rest, they should come out fresh and improved and at least give Zona a game. If they come out even close to flat or looking even slightly unprepared or confused (with 12 freakin' days to prepare) then I would worry. After the zona game, you might be able to say that depending on the performance..by that point (post-Zona) I think it could be too late to change all that much.

These 12 days are indeed a blessing, if used wisely and efficiently. I fully expect to see a "new" team out there.
 
UConnDan97 said:
What does 9-4 do?

Honestly, I'm asking for a real answer. We all know what 0-3 means. And I'm pretty sure I know what 3-0 means (and the posts that will follow). But how about going 2-1 in this stretch? Will it change the narrative? Will folks focus on the 1 and not the 2? Just curious...
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I think it depends.
2 wins and a complete blowout isn't great. Who the wins come against is also huge. Obviously, the shockers are the big prize. So 2-1 with loss to Shockers isnt a big deal, but it hurts momentum if that happens. Also, a 5 point loss plays differently than Arkansas 2.0

Let's just get 3 wins so fans can rejoice once again.
 
Marty Jackson said:
I think it depends.
2 wins and a complete blowout isn't great. Who the wins come against is also huge. Obviously, the shockers are the big prize. So 2-1 with loss to Shockers isnt a big deal, but it hurts momentum if that happens. Also, a 5 point loss plays differently than Arkansas 2.0

Let's just get 3 wins so fans can rejoice once again.
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I disagree with the 2 wins and the 1 blowout being bad. If you told me that we picked up wins against Auburn and Arizona but got blown out against Wichita State, I still think that's a win for the team.

I agree that 3 wins are better, though. Let's do that...
 
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I’ll be curious to see who our starters are against AZ. I hope a couple of our bigs make good progress during this break. Would love to see Carlton turn some heads and give Ollie a reason to start him.
 
Marty Jackson said:
I think it depends.
2 wins and a complete blowout isn't great. Who the wins come against is also huge. Obviously, the shockers are the big prize. So 2-1 with loss to Shockers isnt a big deal, but it hurts momentum if that happens. Also, a 5 point loss plays differently than Arkansas 2.0

Let's just get 3 wins so fans can rejoice once again.
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You're highly underrating this 3 game stretch. WSU and Zona are way, way better than Arkansas. 2 wins in this stretch would have me over the moon.

I think, for this team, and not the selection committee, one win is a success. Likely against Auburn if it happens. I expect a blowout against Zona, unless they catch them flat as they were earlier in the year. As Fishy mentioned, UCONN's got no answer for a couple of their guys. WSU is an experienced club which I believe will paste us. I would put the chance at three wins in the neighborhood of less than 1%.

Again, this assessment is just based on how they've played so far. Perhaps the 12 days magically changes some things, but I'm just not very sure about that. Generally:
  • They'd have to play a full 40 minutes of top end effort (we've yet to see a complete half, never mind a full game imo).
  • They'd have to stick with the offense and movement the entire game (I've seen stretches of less than 10 min per game so far).
  • Larrier/Jalen/Vital would have to be ON, from the jump.
  • WSU and Zona would have to come out flat.
That's a lot to break right.
 
imno1 said:
I’ll be curious to see who our starters are against AZ. I hope a couple of our bigs make good progress during this break. Would love to see Carlton turn some heads and give Ollie a reason to start him.
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I'm still trying to figure out how they guard Ayton. I don't see a guy on the roster capable of doing it on his own. And given the inside/out ability, it's gonna take some serious scheme work to get it done.
 
intlzncster said:
You're highly underrating this 3 game stretch. WSU and Zona are way, way better than Arkansas. 2 wins in this stretch would have me over the moon.

I think, for this team, and not the selection committee, one win is a success. Likely against Auburn if it happens. I expect a blowout against Zona, unless they catch them flat as they were earlier in the year. As Fishy mentioned, UCONN's got no answer for a couple of their guys. WSU is an experienced club which I believe will paste us. I would put the chance at three wins in the neighborhood of less than 1%.

Again, this assessment is just based on how they've played so far. Perhaps the 12 days magically changes some things, but I'm just not very sure about that. Generally:
  • They'd have to play a full 40 minutes of top end effort (we've yet to see a complete half, never mind a full game imo).
  • They'd have to stick with the offense and movement the entire game (I've seen stretches of less than 10 min per game so far).
  • Larrier/Jalen/Vital would have to be ON, from the jump.
  • WSU and Zona would have to come out flat.
That's a lot to break right.
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Arizona is the one game I circled on the calendar before the year as a sure-fire loss. Even when they played Michigan State I gave them a puncher's chance, but to handle Ayton, Trier and company in that building with a patch work roster is looking like a fantasy at this point. Granted, they have looked a lot more mortal than I expected - even beyond the three game tail-spin in Atlantis, and even with Atkins back, they haven't been a juggernaut. Alabama took them to the wire the other night. Still, Alabama is a lot better than us and I'd be surprised if we keep it within ten.

I actually think, assuming Auburn turns out to be a top 50 team, that the committee does look at 1-2 as a success. It'll be losing handily to beatable Arkansas/Syracuse teams at neutral venues that will come back to haunt us.
 
We just need to reduce turnovers and develop some identity and cohesion on defense. At that point, we will have a season.
But these two things need to change starting yesterday.
 
After we lose the next 3, Ollie will surely be on the fire seat. Especially if we can’t fill the civic center vs wichi st
 
@Arizona - L
@Auburn - L
Vs #3 Wichita State - Definite L

OT against Monmouth and Coppin State at home, we struggled against Stony Brook too. This team is not going to beat any of those three schools with or without Gilbert. Just reality unfortunately. I’m still watching though.
 
Saab04 said:
@Arizona - L
@Auburn - L
Vs #3 Wichita State - Definite L

OT against Monmouth and Coppin State at home, we struggled against Stony Brook too. This team is not going to beat any of those three schools with or without Gilbert. Just reality unfortunately. I’m still watching though.
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I disagree about the Gilbert part of that. He makes a HUGE difference to this team.
We were 4-0, having just beat Oregon, and down 1 to Michigan St. at halftime. Gilbert gets hurt, and it's a different season. Yes, we would've still lost to MSU and probably Arkansas.
But having 3 guys who can drop 16 on any given night out there, compared to 2, is a huge difference. There just isn't enough quality on this team beyond Jalen, Alterique, and Larrier. Vital is the only wildcard/"x" factor.
 
RayIsTheGOAT said:
I disagree about the Gilbert part of that. He makes a HUGE difference to this team.
We were 4-0, having just beat Oregon, and down 1 to Michigan St. at halftime. Gilbert gets hurt, and it's a different season. Yes, we would've still lost to MSU and probably Arkansas.
But having 3 guys who can drop 16 on any given night out there, compared to 2, is a huge difference. There just isn't enough quality on this team beyond Jalen, Alterique, and Larrier. Vital is the only wildcard/"x" factor.
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1. Colgate
2. Stony Brook (struggled)
3. Boston U
4. Oregon (not the same Oregon of last season)

Those are the teams we beat with Gilbert, and you’re talking him up like we beat 4 of the top 25 teams. Those were cupcakes and we still struggled against Stony Brook with Gilbert. No way he makes a difference against Arizona, Auburn, and #3 Wichita State. Those are loses regardless. Believe the hype against those cupcakes all you want, but your not convincing me.

Jalen turns it up in the last 10 minutes of the game, he’s too inconsistent. Larrier is playing timid and has been all season thus far. Gilbert has not been shooting good, matter of fact none of the three are. I’m not sure what you define as quality but I don’t see it. Maybe we are seeing two different teams play.
 
Undicilplined team lacking talent. Pretty deadly combo without even mentioning the fact that they can’t shoot (but still launch bricks), they don’t play d and they don’t rebound well. Could be a 15 loss season here boys. Buckle up. I’ll be watching regardless but boy oh boy.
 
Bazz has to get on the phone with Jalen and tell him how a true hungry husky gets it done. I'm desperately hoping we come out of this break fresh and hungry to win the entire 40 mins of games
 
Tuna said:
Would love to see AG back in action. This team could use him.
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We may never see AG back as a major contributor. Would love to see him back with a healthy shoulder and all the skills prior to his latest injury but I'm having trouble being optimistic. I hope I'm wrong because AG could be a difference maker.
 
Never seen Auburn but watched Ayton on Az and WState. Wasn’t Blind Faith a band way back when?
 
1-2 would be a solid result. 2-1 and the season is savagable. 0-3 and it’s over. We will be seeing bigger crowds at hockey games for the last month of the year
 
I would be thrilled to see better ball movement resulting in at least a few easy baskets per game. I think that would help immensely.

Perhaps I am wrong, but I see a fair amount of talent on the roster. I really think that guys like Diarra, Carlton, Polley and Whaley all have the chance to be impact players over time. The odds of that happening go up significantly if they play hard as a team and share the basketball well.
 

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