12 days | Page 2 | The Boneyard

12 days

LIuconn said:
Nothing will change if it hasn't already.
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I don't think this is a tournament team, but this is a mind boggling statement. You're básically saying teams don't develop or gel over the course of the year.

Especially in context of only returning 2 guys who played minutes.
 
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UConnDan97 said:
So here's a follow up question: what percentage of the board do you think would agree with you? I think there are a lot of folks here that would be quite a bit more pessimistic than your 2-1 and 1-2 assessments...
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I dunno but I would say anyone on here who wouldn’t be extremely happy with 2-1 needs to re-examine their expectations for this team. I would have gladly accepted that at the beginning of the season, let alone after this disappointing start. This would be a tough stretch for any team in the country.
 
intlzncster said:
Given what we've seen this year, I'd be ecstatic w 1-2. Not even being a hater.
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I think we actually need 2-1.

2-1 and we can start pretending we have a season again.

At 1-2 or 0-3 with our Nova beating still coming, the out of conference season is a complete loss and no selection committee is going to let an AAC school slide with that.
 
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Fishy said:
I think we actually need 2-1.

2-1 and we can start pretending we have a season again.

At 1-2 or 0-3 with our Nova beating still coming, the out of conference season is a complete loss and no selection committee is going to let an AAC school slide with that.
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1. We don't "need" anything in December.
2. The AAC is better this year and we'll have more chances for quality wins.
3. In your scenario we would have at least one quality OOC win and potentially another if Oregon turns things around, with no bad losses. I think you overstate how difficult it is to make the tournament.
 
Fishy said:
I think we actually need 2-1.

2-1 and we can start pretending we have a season again.

At 1-2 or 0-3 with our Nova beating still coming, the out of conference season is a complete loss and no selection committee is going to let an AAC school slide with that.
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You're right. I was just offering up my expectations given our recent play. I feel like they are going to need these other teams to play poorly to get a win.

Auburn hasn't really played anybody. So who knows there? Arizona is much better than they've shown imo. And WSU is ranked appropriately.

Gotta beat Auburn, and somehow pull one out vs Zona.
 
intlzncster said:
You're right. I was just offering up my expectations given our recent play. I feel like they are going to need these other teams to play poorly to get a win.

Auburn hasn't really played anybody. So who knows there? Arizona is much better than they've shown imo. And WSU is ranked appropriately.

Gotta beat Auburn, and somehow pull one out vs Zona.
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I think we have to beat Auburn and hope that Wichita comes in flat.

I’ve given up hope on the Arizona game. They are going club us like baby seals. When Deandre Ayton starts hitting threes, our pups will shut down.

We should leave all of the freshmen home for that game.
 
UConnDan97 said:
What does 9-4 do?

Honestly, I'm asking for a real answer. We all know what 0-3 means. And I'm pretty sure I know what 3-0 means (and the posts that will follow). But how about going 2-1 in this stretch? Will it change the narrative? Will folks focus on the 1 and not the 2? Just curious...
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9-4 probably buys Ollie another year.
 
auggie22 said:
9-4 probably buys Ollie another year.
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But 8-5 doesn't???

That's the point here. People need to stop being outrageous with their predictions...

...(says the man who has continuously predicted undefeated seasons for the the last 35 years)...
 
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awfuldan said:
3-0 is almost too much to ask for
2-1 reinvigorates the season
1-2 means we are treading water
0-3 means we’ve dug a hole that we likely won’t be able to climb out of
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agree 100%
 
Fishy said:
I think we have to beat Auburn and hope that Wichita comes in flat.

I’ve given up hope on the Arizona game. They are going club us like baby seals. When Deandre Ayton starts hitting threes, our pups will shut down.

We should leave all of the freshmen home for that game.
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I wish Auburn was first on the trip. Because if we get clubbed in Arizona we may roll over for Auburn. It just seems to be the mental makeup of this squad so far.
 
Austin 3:16 says we better get some recruiting visits in... lots of stuff to do in this stretch.
 
1-2 allows us to stay in the hunt. 2-1 or better changes the season. 0-3 will mount a big hole that will be difficult to climb out of.
 
I keep reading the thread title "12 days" in the same voice as the phone call in the movie The Ring.

I'm not sure if that's good lol.
 
intlzncster said:
Given what we've seen this year, I'd be ecstatic w 1-2. Not even being a hater.
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2-1 would be the first pleasant surprise of the season.
1-2 isn't fatal, but would perhaps require Oregon, Arkansas, Syracuse & Auburn to include 3 Tournament teams AND top 4 (5?)AAC finish.
SO FAR, I hasn't seen play that makes me think that will happen, but I can still play the hopeful/patient angle & imagine a team that steadily improves. Why? Because I'm a fan and have no better narrative.
 
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Winning the AAC tournament is our best (only?) hope for a trip to the dance.
 
Waquoit said:
Winning the AAC tournament is our best (only?) hope for a trip to the dance.
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Based on what? It's going to be incredibly hard to win the AAC tournament assuming we're not already in a position to get a bid going in.

Again, people are over-estimating how hard it is to make the tournament. Providence got in last year with 12 losses. Illinois State nearly got in with one top 50 win. Michigan State lost 14 games and got a nine seed. Rhode Island got in from the A-10 with 9 losses.

If you look at the numbers right now, we're actually in good shape from an RPI standpoint. Only one debilitating cupcake on the schedule so far and that was Coppin State. Everybody else that we've played has their record distorted by the schedules they've played, but they should finish in the upper half of their leagues. The RPI practically rewards you for losing to good teams. All you need to do is beat the bad ones and take enough from the good ones and you're in. 1-1 on this coming road trip and 12-6 in the league and they're in.

As things stand, our biggest obstacle is the fact that we suck.
 
champs99and04 said:
Based on what? It's going to be incredibly hard to win the AAC tournament assuming we're not already in a position to get a bid going in.

Again, people are over-estimating how hard it is to make the tournament. Providence got in last year with 12 losses. Illinois State nearly got in with one top 50 win. Michigan State lost 14 games and got a nine seed. Rhode Island got in from the A-10 with 9 losses.

If you look at the numbers right now, we're actually in good shape from an RPI standpoint. Only one debilitating cupcake on the schedule so far and that was Coppin State. Everybody else that we've played has their record distorted by the schedules they've played, but they should finish in the upper half of their leagues. The RPI practically rewards you for losing to good teams. All you need to do is beat the bad ones and take enough from the good ones and you're in. 1-1 on this coming road trip and 12-6 in the league and they're in.

As things stand, our biggest obstacle is the fact that we suck.
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The reasonable analytical take and the pesky punchline, all in one post. Goes back to what was said best in the off-season: just win on the court.
 
champs99and04 said:
Based on what? It's going to be incredibly hard to win the AAC tournament assuming we're not already in a position to get a bid going in.
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My thinking is if we lose our next 3, our hopes for an at-large bid are gone. But if we make continuous improvement over the next two months, we might have a shot in the tournament, especially if a better team or two gets upset.
 
Waquoit said:
My thinking is if we lose our next 3, our hopes for an at-large bid are gone. But if we make continuous improvement over the next two months, we might have a shot in the tournament, especially if a better team or two gets upset.
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In my mind, if we can get one on the road trip and then one of the two big home games (Wichita and Nova), we'd be in good shape. I can't see that happening so you might be right, unfortunately if we screw around in the regular season again, we won't be giving ourselves the chance to benefit from an upset because we'll be playing a really good team in round one.

Between Wichita, Cincy, SMU, Houston, and Temple all looking like top 50 type teams, I don't really see it as realistic to beat three of them in three days (not to mention a possible fourth game) with how limited we are. But they do tend to play better in the postseason.
 
LIuconn said:
Nothing will change if it hasn't already.

Can't make any call on AG at the moment. Hoping for the best but assuming the worst
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I disagree. I think, if players work hard and take the time to also rest, they should come out fresh and improved and at least give Zona a game. If they come out even close to flat or looking even slightly unprepared or confused (with 12 freakin' days to prepare) then I would worry. After the zona game, you might be able to say that depending on the performance..by that point (post-Zona) I think it could be too late to change all that much.

These 12 days are indeed a blessing, if used wisely and efficiently. I fully expect to see a "new" team out there.
 
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UConnDan97 said:
What does 9-4 do?

Honestly, I'm asking for a real answer. We all know what 0-3 means. And I'm pretty sure I know what 3-0 means (and the posts that will follow). But how about going 2-1 in this stretch? Will it change the narrative? Will folks focus on the 1 and not the 2? Just curious...
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I think it depends.
2 wins and a complete blowout isn't great. Who the wins come against is also huge. Obviously, the shockers are the big prize. So 2-1 with loss to Shockers isnt a big deal, but it hurts momentum if that happens. Also, a 5 point loss plays differently than Arkansas 2.0

Let's just get 3 wins so fans can rejoice once again.
 
Marty Jackson said:
I think it depends.
2 wins and a complete blowout isn't great. Who the wins come against is also huge. Obviously, the shockers are the big prize. So 2-1 with loss to Shockers isnt a big deal, but it hurts momentum if that happens. Also, a 5 point loss plays differently than Arkansas 2.0

Let's just get 3 wins so fans can rejoice once again.
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I disagree with the 2 wins and the 1 blowout being bad. If you told me that we picked up wins against Auburn and Arizona but got blown out against Wichita State, I still think that's a win for the team.

I agree that 3 wins are better, though. Let's do that...
 
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I’ll be curious to see who our starters are against AZ. I hope a couple of our bigs make good progress during this break. Would love to see Carlton turn some heads and give Ollie a reason to start him.
 
Marty Jackson said:
I think it depends.
2 wins and a complete blowout isn't great. Who the wins come against is also huge. Obviously, the shockers are the big prize. So 2-1 with loss to Shockers isnt a big deal, but it hurts momentum if that happens. Also, a 5 point loss plays differently than Arkansas 2.0

Let's just get 3 wins so fans can rejoice once again.
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You're highly underrating this 3 game stretch. WSU and Zona are way, way better than Arkansas. 2 wins in this stretch would have me over the moon.

I think, for this team, and not the selection committee, one win is a success. Likely against Auburn if it happens. I expect a blowout against Zona, unless they catch them flat as they were earlier in the year. As Fishy mentioned, UCONN's got no answer for a couple of their guys. WSU is an experienced club which I believe will paste us. I would put the chance at three wins in the neighborhood of less than 1%.

Again, this assessment is just based on how they've played so far. Perhaps the 12 days magically changes some things, but I'm just not very sure about that. Generally:
  • They'd have to play a full 40 minutes of top end effort (we've yet to see a complete half, never mind a full game imo).
  • They'd have to stick with the offense and movement the entire game (I've seen stretches of less than 10 min per game so far).
  • Larrier/Jalen/Vital would have to be ON, from the jump.
  • WSU and Zona would have to come out flat.
That's a lot to break right.
 
imno1 said:
I’ll be curious to see who our starters are against AZ. I hope a couple of our bigs make good progress during this break. Would love to see Carlton turn some heads and give Ollie a reason to start him.
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I'm still trying to figure out how they guard Ayton. I don't see a guy on the roster capable of doing it on his own. And given the inside/out ability, it's gonna take some serious scheme work to get it done.
 
intlzncster said:
You're highly underrating this 3 game stretch. WSU and Zona are way, way better than Arkansas. 2 wins in this stretch would have me over the moon.

I think, for this team, and not the selection committee, one win is a success. Likely against Auburn if it happens. I expect a blowout against Zona, unless they catch them flat as they were earlier in the year. As Fishy mentioned, UCONN's got no answer for a couple of their guys. WSU is an experienced club which I believe will paste us. I would put the chance at three wins in the neighborhood of less than 1%.

Again, this assessment is just based on how they've played so far. Perhaps the 12 days magically changes some things, but I'm just not very sure about that. Generally:
  • They'd have to play a full 40 minutes of top end effort (we've yet to see a complete half, never mind a full game imo).
  • They'd have to stick with the offense and movement the entire game (I've seen stretches of less than 10 min per game so far).
  • Larrier/Jalen/Vital would have to be ON, from the jump.
  • WSU and Zona would have to come out flat.
That's a lot to break right.
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Arizona is the one game I circled on the calendar before the year as a sure-fire loss. Even when they played Michigan State I gave them a puncher's chance, but to handle Ayton, Trier and company in that building with a patch work roster is looking like a fantasy at this point. Granted, they have looked a lot more mortal than I expected - even beyond the three game tail-spin in Atlantis, and even with Atkins back, they haven't been a juggernaut. Alabama took them to the wire the other night. Still, Alabama is a lot better than us and I'd be surprised if we keep it within ten.

I actually think, assuming Auburn turns out to be a top 50 team, that the committee does look at 1-2 as a success. It'll be losing handily to beatable Arkansas/Syracuse teams at neutral venues that will come back to haunt us.
 
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