12/5 Notre Dame game without Butler

[Carnac]

I had a lot of observations and theories that I was going to share. After reading all of the posts and comments here, EVERYTHING I was going to say has already been said.
This game is circled on our calendars. Right now, we don't know what we have. We don't know who the 5th starter is going to be. We don't know how much help the freshmen are going to be at any point during the season. We don't know how much Gabby, Courtney, and Saniya have improved over the summer, or what their rolls will be yet.

We don't know how long before Natalie comes back, or how long before she can reach maximum efficiency. I join those that think that no Natalie is no problem. Of course we'd like to have her, but because of the depth of this year's team, her brief absence can be absorbed with little or no detrimental effect.

We don't know if someone else (God forbid) will get hurt between now and then. By the time Dec. 5 rolls around, we'll have a much better feel for our team....their strengths, and their weaknesses. All of these "don't knows" will be answered by then. I think everyone is in agreement that UConn can and will score this year. The question is how good will we be on defense? We choked a lot of team's hopes and dreams into unconsciousness on the defensive end of the court last year. Can we do it again?

All of us "journeymen" prognosticators will be able to make more intelligent and informed predictions by then. I fired up the cape and turban recently, and I got absolutely nothing. I've got to play the "wait and see" game like everyone else.

We'll also know a lot more about Notre Dame and USCe than we do today. Baylor and Tennessee may become poised to make a serious bid for consideration to win it all come tournament time.

I agree with the poster that said if UConn comes away from this game with a decisive win, that will cause the other major programs serious concern come tournament time. Everyone will be better come March. If UConn can dominate the Notre Dames and the USCe's NOW, How much better will we be come March during those last six games?

Another poster suggested that UConn will be "scary good" this year. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, NOBODY wants to be in UConn's bracket (regional) come tournament time. The only way any team wants to meet UConn is in the national championship game. Any team that says they want to see UConn BEFORE then, is lying. Again, like last year.......the consensus around the country is if you're going to win the national championship, you've got to go through UConn. If not us, then who?

 

[Orangutan]

Sounds like one of the results of McGraw's tinkering will be playing Patberg at the point and moving Allen to SG/Wing to take advantage of Allen's offense. Ogunbowale falls far short of Loyd's athleticism -- there will be no Ari-oops or Ogy-oops -- but she's very strong and I predict she'll eventually lead the Irish in free-throw attempts (and throwing herself in to defenders).

I don't know if that will actually happen much. I took her discussion of playing Patberg and Allen together as more of a hypothetical.

Arike (aka "Rico") doesn't have the hops or height that Loyd had but she does have similar quickness. And yeah, she'll get a lot of FTAs by reckless drives to the hoop, so I'm sure she'll be a big favorite around here.

Jackie Young is more nearly analogous to Loyd, but McGraw has to wait one more year for her.

 

[rugbymate]

IMO the December ND game is a legitimate concern. Although I believe UCONN will prevail it may be a close game and perhaps one that is settled in the waning minutes. Yes we are returning four starters as are they. We lost KML who had a very solid if not terrific NC game. Stokes was pretty much a non-factor. ND lost JL who had a horrible final game offensively(4-18). AS has been noted , this is a game that was virtually even in the second half. The upside for us is that we get more out of Stewie and probably Nurse. The upside for ND is a more complete game from Turner and Allen taking up more of the offense in JL's absence. The 5th starter performance is clearly the wild card.
Thank goodness for home court advantage.

 

[UConnCat]

I don't know if that will actually happen much. I took her discussion of playing Patberg and Allen together as more of a hypothetical.

Arike (aka "Rico") doesn't have the hops or height that Loyd had but she does have similar quickness. And yeah, she'll get a lot of FTAs by reckless drives to the hoop, so I'm sure she'll be a big favorite around here.

Jackie Young is more nearly analogous to Loyd, but McGraw has to wait one more year for her.

I don't agree with you on AO's quickness; unlike Loyd, I believe she'll struggle defensively because of it. We'll have to see how she does at the Div 1 level.

I didn't take Muffet's comments about moving Allen off the point as hypothetical. I interpreted her comments as recognizing that she needs to get scoring from the perimeter and right now Allen is her most skilled perimeter player.

 

[Suebird10fan]

With all due respect to Natalie, I suspect that the players who will get more playing time as a result of her absence (Tuck, Collier, maybe Gabby Williams) are as good or better. (Ok, maybe DJB gets 2 or 3 minutes ...) From a matchup perspective I'd love to have Natalie as an option against Turner, who IMHO may be the best non-UConn player in the country. But I don't expect it to make a huge difference in the final score. UConn by 15 to 20.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Yo Hoops - SO, Playing one year with a Championship team (and experiencing those intense extra games--even though the minutes were few in the big games) is not a definition of experience. Can't see your point on that. Of course, one year is not experienced as a senior bench player. Question- Besides Turner, who was another frosh from ND that has more experience than Gabby? Just asking!
Also, are you saying you would play a 3 guard system (with 2 being 5'7" or smaller) and the 3rd guard is an average defender. Just having Gabby in as a defender would be a good 5th starter. We know she can run, rebound, and post-up too. If not Gabby, that leaves the new freshman to start. (Chong response was answered) Seems like Gabby has more experience than them.
Finally, if Cable is the 5th starter I would take Gabby's short resume of experience and large athletic abilities over Cable. Cable has good attributes of hustle, intensity, & competitiveness--all are matched by UConn players and definitely by Gabby. I like UConn's options.

You mentioned that you wanted Gabby for her experience. Gabby has one year and one national championship of experience, and from what we saw last year couldn't hit the ocean if she was standing more than 5 feet away from it, never mind free throws which were always an adventure. Chong, on the other hand, has two years experience in the guard rotation and a short time as a starter, has been a part of two national title runs, and as we've seen can get hot from outside which is something this year's team will be lacking with KML's departure.

I like Gabby, but I don't know if she should start over a #1 recruit or a junior with twice the experience. The first thing I thought of when it was announced that Butler was out for the rest of the calendar year was let's try to recreate last year's magic as best as possible. The easiest way to do that it would seem is keep the starters from last year in their exact same position, and find someone that could play OK defense and shoot the 3 to replace KML. There are only 3 people on the team that are known for their 3 point shooting that aren't starting: Chong, Ekmark, and KLS. You can take Chong to be a 3rd guard, or KLS that can do what KML did in her freshman year and just worry about scoring. KLS could ultimately be KML with Kiah's height or as some have said more similar to Delle Donne. I say let KLS come in and be a scoring machine, and when she starts to hit that freshman wall, it will be about time for Butler to come back anyway. I know Geno says he doesn't like to start freshmen, but he seems to do it anyway, and I'd like to see what this new #1 recruit can do especially when we have an opening at her position.

 

[UcMiami]

Last night Geno when talking about Pat and the rise of Uconn, was asked, 'Ok, so who is your 'Geno'' And his immediate answer was Muffet, followed by the explanation that ND believes every minute of every day that they can beat Uconn, because they have proved they can.
I think that is as good an answer as he could have made and it points to why these games are usually so good. The only games they really were not in were the ones they played without Natalie in the NC and the game last year without Turner.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Yo Hoops - SO, Playing one year with a Championship team (and experiencing those intense extra games--even though the minutes were few in the big games) is not a definition of experience. Can't see your point on that. Of course, one year is not experienced as a senior bench player. Question- Besides Turner, who was another frosh from ND that has more experience than Gabby? Just asking!
Also, are you saying you would play a 3 guard system (with 2 being 5'7" or smaller) and the 3rd guard is an average defender. Just having Gabby in as a defender would be a good 5th starter. We know she can run, rebound, and post-up too. If not Gabby, that leaves the new freshman to start. (Chong response was answered) Seems like Gabby has more experience than them.
Finally, if Cable is the 5th starter I would take Gabby's short resume of experience and large athletic abilities over Cable. Cable has good attributes of hustle, intensity, & competitiveness--all are matched by UConn players and definitely by Gabby. I like UConn's options.

Every once and/in (is Kib listening?) a while I like to remind people that I can like a post without agreeing with it. A thoughtful, cogently argued post deserves a like.

 

[bballnut90]

UCONN by a pretty solid margin, they'll grab at double digit lead in the first half and it won't be competitive. Notre Dame still needs to figure out how to make up for the void left by Loyd and while they have a lot of horses, they aren't at the level of UCONN's. UCONN will have a healthy Stewart and essentially the same roster that played last year, but Collier/KLS slides in for KML.

Uconn barely used Stokes last year against ND and realistically they don't need Butler to man the post with Stewart inside.

Stewart against Turner will be a very good matchup, but Tuck will be fine handling Reimer. Taya can hit layups and short jumpers but is inconsistent with her midrange jumper, doesn't have a lot of post moves and has tanked against Uconn in all 3 match ups in her first two years. Unless she's drastically improved, it'll be all UCONN again.

 

[Go/huskies]

Uconn will win, not sure by how much though. It sounds like Gabby Williams has a lot to prove this season.

 

[donalddoowop]

Last night Geno when talking about Pat and the rise of Uconn, was asked, 'Ok, so who is your 'Geno'' And his immediate answer was Muffet, followed by the explanation that ND believes every minute of every day that they can beat Uconn, because they have proved they can.
I think that is as good an answer as he could have made and it points to why these games are usually so good. The only games they really were not in were the ones they played without Natalie in the NC and the game last year without Turner.

So many people talk about that game when ND did not have Natalie. Tuck did not play for UCONN. Even the announcers seem to forget that.

 

[HoopsFan21]

So many people talk about that game when ND did not have Natalie. Tuck did not play for UCONN. Even the announcers seem to forget that.

True, but Tuck was a bench player while Achonwa was a starter. The analog to the Achonwa loss would have been us losing Stef. Anyone think we win that game without Stef? Maybe we would have, but it would have been too close for my comfort.

 

[UcMiami]

So many people talk about that game when ND did not have Natalie. Tuck did not play for UCONN. Even the announcers seem to forget that.

What Hoopsfan21 said, but also the timing was very different - Natalie went out in the elite eight game so ND had little time to adjust what they had been doing for the past 5 months - they had a 'win one for the gipper' emotional win in the semis, but it is very hard to keep that emotional high for multiple games.
I am not saying they would have won and I am not saying they would have won last year with Turner playing, I don't think they would, but both of those games would likely have been much more competitive than they turned out in the second half.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

The 2014 Championship could have been closer with Natalie A playing - more from her defense than from her offense. Turner in last December's game making a different, not so sure. Specifically, I think ND would have been hard pressed (pun intended) to use her effectively on the offense. Could the Huskies figure out and damp down Llyod with Turner inside? I don't see any correlation of the questions there. Maybe Turner gets a few offensive rebounds off Llyod misses, but could she get them all back up? I doubt it.

 

[BroadwayVa]

I think ND is absolutely terrific. Even when, on paper, they don't seem to have the horses UCONN does, Muffet coaches them incredibly well and they do a bangup job vs. UCONN (most of the time). If nothing else, they outplayed us for 2-3 years with Skyler, but the roles are reversed since Stewie and Mo have been at UCONN.

Also, when I looked at rosters past, ND always seemed to be much less athletic than UCONN, and I'd point that out heading up to the game (advantage UCONN). Oddly enough, watching the game closely, the mismatches and athletic advantage I expected to see results from didn't materialize. My point is, ND is so well coached and disciplined that they play terrific defense, great rotations and usually excellent help, and they do a terrific job limiting UCONN's strengths.

Having said all that...starters for ND - Turner, Reimer, Allen, Mabrey, and then...IMHO probably Cable. Westbeld to come off the bench, and probably at least 2 of the freshmen guards will see decent time as well (maybe all 3 of them). ND is like UCONN in that they lack big height in the post (Nelson and Thompson - 6'5" juniors, but vs. UCONN in the NC game as sophomores, they saw 0 minutes... unless they are vastly improved, not sure they will be used much).

I think people are underestimating Turner. Horrible 1st half, but let's be honest - she outplayed Stewie in the 2nd half. Played great defense on Stewie and outscored her. I'm not saying Turner is better, but as a freshman, she was just terrific and if she has as sophomore leap, watch out. I also think Allen was much better than I anticipated. Remember, it was fairly even in the 2nd half - UCONN only outscored them by 2.

On paper, Jefferson, a sophomore Nurse (sophomore leap too), Tuck and Stewie I think match up favorably, but it's closer than some people think. To me, the factor in the margin of victory will be how the 5th starters for each team do and how the benches help. I think UCONN is better there also with Williams, Chong, Collier, Samuelson and Boykin vs. Huffman, Westbeld, Patberg, Mabrey and Ogunbowale. Of course, in the NC game, KML, Tuck and Jefferson played all 40 minutes and Stewie played 39.

Yeah I know both teams have other players as well but I didn't mention them because I'm not sure they will even play in a big game like this, never mind make an impact. Having said that, I think UCONN wins at home by 12-15 points.

I like every word your wrote. Muffet is a good to great coach. Mabrey can be terrific from the 3. Cable is a hard nosed )(Doty Like) player. Turner is all you say, and probably more this year.
Uconn has a lot of weapons to use against ND--if foul trouble (which I expect Muffet will work hard at) or injuries doesn't raise it's terrible head. Allen can be very good, maybe not Loyd, but with her ND should miss Loyd less--and if any of their freshmen have an exceptional game. Who knows??
I thought Huffman hit what seemed like a bunch of 3's in the NC, Westbled is tough kid like Hammon from Louisville, Cable was lucky to score the winner against USC-but tough kid too. If ND is successful in their Flopping defense--ref's permitting--it could be a problem for UConn. If Uconn want's Big--Gabby, Collier, KLS, Boykin I suspect they will hold their own in any real scrap. To me Chong will serve as a relief sub for Kia and Moriah. So where does Courtney fit in all this??? Not on the bench I hope.
As another poster has written--Notre Dame always cause me to distress--but fun.

 

[BroadwayVa]

The 2014 Championship could have been closer with Natalie A playing - more from her defense than from her offense. Turner in last December's game making a different, not so sure. Specifically, I think ND would have been hard pressed (pun intended) to use her effectively on the offense. Could the Huskies figure out and damp down Llyod with Turner inside? I don't see any correlation of the questions there. Maybe Turner gets a few offensive rebounds off Llyod misses, but could she get them all back up? I doubt it.

Watching Achonwa, one of the First People, in the Pan Am's I then got more respect for her.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Watching Achonwa, one of the First People, in the Pan Am's I then got more respect for her.

What took you so long! She is a tough minded, admirable character. Now that she has graduated ND there is nothing not to like about this woman.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

You mentioned that you wanted Gabby for her experience. Gabby has one year and one national championship of experience, and from what we saw last year couldn't hit the ocean if she was standing more than 5 feet away from it, never mind free throws which were always an adventure. Chong, on the other hand, has two years experience in the guard rotation and a short time as a starter, has been a part of two national title runs, and as we've seen can get hot from outside which is something this year's team will be lacking with KML's departure.

I like Gabby, but I don't know if she should start over a #1 recruit or a junior with twice the experience. The first thing I thought of when it was announced that Butler was out for the rest of the calendar year was let's try to recreate last year's magic as best as possible. The easiest way to do that it would seem is keep the starters from last year in their exact same position, and find someone that could play OK defense and shoot the 3 to replace KML. There are only 3 people on the team that are known for their 3 point shooting that aren't starting: Chong, Ekmark, and KLS. You can take Chong to be a 3rd guard, or KLS tha t can do what KML did in her freshman year and just worry about scoring. KLS could ultimately be KML with Kiah's height or as some have said more similar to Delle Donne. I say let KLS come in and be a scoring machine, and when she starts to hit that freshman wall, it will be about time for Butler to come back anyway. I know Geno says he doesn't like to start freshmen, but he seems to do it anyway, and I'd like to see what this new #1 recruit can do especially when we have an opening at her position.

You are going where I am living on this. But, fact is, none of us have a clue about how much Gabby has grown, or Saniya or Courtney, etc etc. So, we are all engaged in wonderful speculation, but that it what it is, and there is no basis or reason to get snarky about it or put any player down to advance our position.

 

[BroadwayVa]

What took you so long! She is a tough minded, admirable character. Now that she has graduated ND there is nothing not to like about this woman.

Two things going for her--no longer ND, and on the Canadian National (in Canada they call her people First People or Aborginies--I prefer First People) My 10 multiple Grandma was a First People, most probably Wyndott or Mohawk. I liked that at ND she was a First People, but she was ND--with Diggins.

 

[HoopsFan21]

You are going where I am living on this. But, fact is, none of us have a clue about how much Gabby has grown, or Saniya or Courtney, etc etc. So, we are all engaged in wonderful speculation, but that it what it is, and there is no basis or reason to get snarky about it or put any player down to advance our position.

Not being snarky or putting anyone down. Everyone has their favorite players and wants them to play as much as possible, I get that. If someone wants Gabby as the 5th starter, they should articulate why. Experience can't be the reason, because there are players more qualified than her in that department. This upcoming season seems like the first one in a while where there really is no reason to tinker with the starting line up. There is no one better than Mo-Nurse--Stewie-Tuck. Put the returning starters in their spots, and figure out what to do with KML's position. Who on this team can play the wing? That's who you start in my opinion, or at least lean towards assuming said player isn't completely dogging it in practice. Also, I don't see why Chong gets such short shrift just because everyone has become enamored with the Gabulous One. I like Gabby too, but maybe Chong should get a look if you're not going to go with one of the freshmen? Chong at least has some experience starting, is also supposedly just as fast as Mo, and as I mentioned has proven that she can shoot from distance and the free throw line, plus has one more year of experience on Gabby. I also hope Pulido gets some decent time at the end of games this year as she graduates with Mo and Stewie.

 

[Carnac]

Stewart matches up well with Turner and Tuck matches up well with Reimer. UConn should be fine.

And....if need be, Tuck and Stewie can play the entire game.

 

[CL82]

Good thread. My thought is that Geno can beat you with his or beat his with yours. Butler's absence would be a huge loss if it right before the game, but this team will already have developed an identity without her. I'm confident that Geno will create match ups that give us an advantage.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Not being snarky or putting anyone down. Everyone has their favorite players and wants them to play as much as possible, I get that. If someone wants Gabby as the 5th starter, they should articulate why. Experience can't be the reason, because there are players more qualified than her in that department. This upcoming season seems like the first one in a while where there really is no reason to tinker with the starting line up. There is no one better than Mo-Nurse--Stewie-Tuck. Put the returning starters in their spots, and figure out what to do with KML's position. Who on this team can play the wing? That's who you start in my opinion, or at least lean towards assuming said player isn't completely dogging it in practice. Also, I don't see why Chong gets such short shrift just because everyone has become enamored with the Gabulous One. I like Gabby too, but maybe Chong should get a look if you're not going to go with one of the freshmen? Chong at least has some experience starting, is also supposedly just as fast as Mo, and as I mentioned has proven that she can shoot from distance and the free throw line, plus has one more year of experience on Gabby. I also hope Pulido gets some decent time at the end of games this year as she graduates with Mo and Stewie.

Saniya is a very competent sub-in at guard as far as I m concerned. If she gave Nurse a tussle I'd be very happy, though Kia is one of my favs. Like I said, you get no argument from me about the Gabulous Gabby being the beneficiary of a fan phenomenon.

 

[CocoHusky]

Not being snarky or putting anyone down. Everyone has their favorite players and wants them to play as much as possible, I get that. If someone wants Gabby as the 5th starter, they should articulate why. Experience can't be the reason, because there are players more qualified than her in that department. This upcoming season seems like the first one in a while where there really is no reason to tinker with the starting line up. There is no one better than Mo-Nurse--Stewie-Tuck. Put the returning starters in their spots, and figure out what to do with KML's position. Who on this team can play the wing? That's who you start in my opinion, or at least lean towards assuming said player isn't completely dogging it in practice. Also, I don't see why Chong gets such short shrift just because everyone has become enamored with the Gabulous One. I like Gabby too, but maybe Chong should get a look if you're not going to go with one of the freshmen? Chong at least has some experience starting, is also supposedly just as fast as Mo, and as I mentioned has proven that she can shoot from distance and the free throw line, plus has one more year of experience on Gabby. I also hope Pulido gets some decent time at the end of games this year as she graduates with Mo and Stewie.

No disrespect intended-strike that! How spoiled are we as a fans when we can afford to sweat minutes for Briana Pulido in her senior year. I love Brianna but I'm pretty sure she is not sweating her minutes-so why should we? We are "enamored" with the "Gabulous One" (That is a good Moniker by the way) because Gabby (in case you have not noticed ) has put up HISTORICAL levels of efficiency for a UCONN freshmen. Gabby earned every bit of the admiration we have given her.
Saniya gets such short shift because she is at times a defensive liability. Specifically she struggles to stay in from of her person and her rotations and closeouts on long jumpers are often late. Her occasional defensive lapses are correctable because she is a tremendous athlete. What may be harder to correct is the mental carry over to the offensive end of the floor.

 

[Tonyc]

With LLoyd gone someone is going to have to step up to take the pressure off Turner. Without Lloyd its all on Turner. Cable Mabrey can score but need to be open. Neither is quick. MoJeff and Nurse are very quick. Tuck and Stewie are established.

Gabby and Saniya need to prove themselves this season. Gabby needs to hit her outside shots and foul shots. Saniya does. I expect Saniya to break out this season and be a scorer. That's really scary. I don't see ND or any other team coming with in double digits of UConn and a lot of teams not coming within 20pts of UConn. This is a very established team with 3 1st team AAs. There aren't any weaknesses for UConn. Don't be surprised if UConn blows ND out. I mean that. Take a look at the defenses and you can see it. Barring in juries UConn is so far ahead of ND and everybody else its not close.