12/11 Rankings

[navery12]

I’m currently binging Suits on Peacock, it’s a good show.

I'm watching it on Netflix and it's fantastic

 

[BigTenFan]

I kno. Just so funny how every year the pollsters favor the big 10 and every year they disappoint. And we’re the defending champs. Funny. U think some pollsters would learn.

The poll is only a snapshot in time. B1G Ten teams can't claim to have any weight -post season until they start winning in March.
UConn has shown that when it counts- they win

 

[JohnnyJr]

I really don’t get teams defending Purdue. I’ve only seen them a couple times but seems they all double Edey leaving wide open shooters and Edey still ends up getting 25. I get most teams don’t have a Clingan to defend him but seems like the best strategy for them is let Edey get his and defend the rest ideally without fouling.

 

[Hi-Low]

Can’t keep changing the goalposts. You asked a specific question, he answered with proof.

lol...what goalposts & what proof. My original post said UNC was a better win than TN, Zags & Bama.. It is. Kenpom rankings in Dec don't overide wins & losses. UNC beat TN, etc. I did't realize Kepom ranking was a drop the mic reply.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Worthy loss is still a loss they shouldve dropped. It was a fun game to watch but lets be realistic they spent most of htat game behind and the lead floated around 10-15 most of the second half and we won by double digits. It wasnt a close game and at no point in that game did i think we were in any serious danger. We lost to Kansas at Kansas by 4 and dropped. I think UNC not moving is disrespectful.

As I said in another thread, UNC is super-duper overrated at #9. The only thing that may keep them there is the fact that the rest of the ACC is awful.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

lol...what goalposts & what proof. My original post said UNC was a better win than TN, Zags & Bama.. It is. Kenpom rankings in Dec don't overide wins & losses. UNC beat TN, etc. I did't realize Kepom ranking was a drop the mic reply.

He said they have 4 better wins. According to Kenpom, they do. You’re opinion of who is better certainly isn’t a drop of the mic reply either.

 

[Hi-Low]

He said they have 4 better wins. According to Kenpom, they do. You’re opinion of who is better certainly isn’t a drop of the mic reply either.

I never said my opinion mattered more than Kenpom but actual head to head wins do matter more than Kenpom in early Dec and UNC beat TN by 8 points...so I'd say UNC is better. Kenpom thinks Bama is better than UNC at this moment when Bama has ZERO meaningful wins and 3 loses. Kenpom not exactly the last word in early Dec.

 

[rman726]

There's a lot of teams out there, Houston and Baylor that havent played the most competitive OOC schedule that I have no idea how good they actually are. Similarly, on paper i feel like Providence is not nearly as good as they were last year but Kim English has opted for a relatively easy schedule to help pump up their win/loss record. I think they are ok, I'm not sure how they'll fair in the Big East especially against the 3 headed monster in Marquette, Creighton and UConn. I'm not sure there are any locks to get into the NCAA tournament outside of the 3 from the big east this year.

I get what you are saying, but I think Providence has as much chance as anyone to win it all (the NIT that is).

 

[Rocktheworld]

So BYU loses to Utah and only drops 3 spots

Meanwhile Texas loses to Marquette and drops 7

 

[AllHusky]

For the record, this is the magical Week 6 AP Poll. Every year for the past 19 seasons the champion has been in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Poll. And for the last 23 years, the champion has been higher in this poll than previous polls. This week's ranking is consistently more accurate for March success than the final AP poll ranking a week before the tournament (and not just for the top 12).

We're officially in the hunt.

where do you get this stuff? fascinating.

 

[auror]

where do you get this stuff? fascinating.

This was written a few years ago, but has continued to be true for each year since:

History still says one of these 12 teams will win the national title

If you’ve been following along here for a while, you know I’m a big fan of the week six AP poll. Over the last 20 years, week six has outperformed previous AP rankings in predicting whi…

johngasaway.com

 

[Brochacho]

If Kenpom identified who's the best team always then Houston would win the title every year.

Not saying Purdue hasn't played a better schedule than us.....I was commenting on statement of UNC being a worse team than TN, Zags and Bama...I totally disagree with that Idea. TN lost to UNC and TN best win is Illinois so I don't care if Kenpom says TN better than UNC...they are not. Alabama has beat nobody...so again the idea better than UNC is based on what? Bama lost to Clemson & Oh St.

Kenpom #1 wins the title more often than not (13 of the last 23). Of course, we have to see if Houston remains at #1 since the season is only about 25% complete for teams that will play deep into March. I don't disagree that there isn't much difference between UNC, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Alabama, but KP is a good metric and as of right now, they're better than UNC until they aren't. H2H is less relevant in my eyes: if Arkansas Pine-Bluff are they better than UConn? No. Good teams lose games and bad teams beat good teams over the course of a season. Purdue is 4-1 vs Q1 and 2-0 vs Q2 whereas UConn is 1-1 and 1-0 vs the same quadrants.

I'd also like to point out that our strength of victory and overall schedule isn't too different from Houston's at this point. We've played bigger brands, but they are 3-0 in Q1. They've only played 1 more Q4 game than UConn. Average KP rating of their top 100 wins: 46.67. UConn average rating of top 100 wins: 42.67. Our top 3 wins have come at MSG which we like to brag is a home court for UConn, while theirs have come at two neutral locations and on the road.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Kenpom #1 wins the title more often than not (13 of the last 23).

Unless your looking at pre-tourney data, that's not a completely predictive stat. A champion has 6 postseason wins factored into their ranking.

For example, we were Kenpom 4 going into the tournament last year

 

[QuickDraw]

Actually, Peacock announced in October they reached the 30 million subscribers milestone.

 

[auror]

Kenpom #1 wins the title more often than not (13 of the last 23). Of course, we have to see if Houston remains at #1 since the season is only about 25% complete for teams that will play deep into March.

I'd also like to point out that our strength of victory and overall schedule isn't too different from Houston's at this point. We've played bigger brands, but they are 3-0 in Q1. They've only played 1 more Q4 game than UConn. Average KP rating of their top 100 wins: 46.67. UConn average rating of top 100 wins: 42.67. Our top 3 wins have come at MSG which we like to brag is a home court for UConn, while theirs have come at two neutral locations and on the road.

Unless your looking at pre-tourney data, that's not a completely predictive stat. A champion has 6 postseason wins factored into their ranking.

For example, we were Kenpom 4 going into the tournament last year

3 of the past 22 pre-tournament KenPom #1 have won it all (2008 Kansas, 2019 Virginia, and 2012 Kentucky).

18 of the 22 were pre-tournament top 6. That's your sweet spot. 13/22 top 4. #2 has been the most common with 5 champions.

 

[ctchamps]

3 of the past 22 pre-tournament KenPom #1 have won it all (2008 Kansas, 2019 Virginia, and 2012 Kentucky).

18 of the 22 were pre-tournament top 6. That's your sweet spot. 13/22 top 4. #2 has been the most common with 5 champions.

What was UConn's KenPom pre season rankings the last three championships?

 

[auror]

What was UConn's KenPom pre season rankings the last three championships?

#16, #25, and #4.

'04 was #5. I'm guessing '99 was somewhere in the #3-5 range since they finished #3 behind Mi St (and Mi St didn't have a particularly strong NCAA run so that means UConn was gaining ground, not the other way around).

 

[ctchamps]

#16, #25, and #4.

'04 was #5. I'm guessing '99 was somewhere in the #3-5 range since they finished #3 behind Mi St (and Mi St didn't have a particularly strong NCAA run so that means UConn was gaining ground, not the other way around).

Thanks for getting this. There were only four times in the past 23 years that a non KenPom top 6 pre season ranked team won the tourney championship. UConn disrupts the college bb blue blood scene and math analytical nerds as well. Good thing you don't root for another team. You'd suffer on two counts.

 

[tzznandrew]

So BYU loses to Utah and only drops 3 spots

Meanwhile Texas loses to Marquette and drops 7

BYU lost by 4, Texas lost by 40.

 

[mauconnfan]

Good reading in this thread, but who cares on December 12th whether we’re 3,4,5? We’re in this and no matter where all good. Just the way I look at it, no worries it will all work out.

Long long way to go!

 

[Rocktheworld]

BYU lost by 4, Texas lost by 40.

It was 21 which still ain’t a great look but you have two losses to top 5 teams vs a loss to Utah team that can’t possibly be good (Lost to SJU)

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Interesting. Marquette, Creighton and Gonzaga are the only three of the top 25 that do NOT play D1 football.

Those are all Jesuit Schools
and most of their schools dropped football in the early 1959’s Fordham and Marquette were major players in their day . The undefeated 1951 San Francisco team might have been the best team in the country but was integrated and the only bowl out of the Deep South was The Rose Bowl was was contracted to the PAC - Big 10 winners . They were invited but only with white players they refused the offer
HOF ‘s RB Ollie Matson and DE Gino Marchetti were on the team . Their publicist was HOF . .commissioner Pete Roselle . Long time NFL player Ed Brown was their QB as well as a running back named Tovar who had a career ending injury in the old college all star vs NFL game.
The only FBS team left is BC
But a number play FCS or D2 like

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Good reading in this thread, but who cares on December 12th whether we’re 3,4,5? We’re in this and no matter where all good. Just the way I look at it, no worries it will all work out.

Long long way to go!

A win at Gonzaga and unless we under perform in conference we‘re pretty much a 1or 2 seed
Next weeks poll is the first one I pay attention to.as it establishes critical strength of conference important for seeding.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

#16, #25, and #4.

'04 was #5. I'm guessing '99 was somewhere in the #3-5 range since they finished #3 behind Mi St (and Mi St didn't have a particularly strong NCAA run so that means UConn was gaining ground, not the other way around).

If you're referring to Michigan St in the 1999 tournament, they made it to the national semifinal game and lost to (an allegedly invincible) Duke.

 

[auror]

This was written a few years ago, but has continued to be true for each year since:

History still says one of these 12 teams will win the national title

If you’ve been following along here for a while, you know I’m a big fan of the week six AP poll. Over the last 20 years, week six has outperformed previous AP rankings in predicting whi…

johngasaway.com

He updated it for ESPN+ with a special shout-out to us.

One program in particular has compiled a remarkable body of work in the area of "polling outliers among national champions."

Week 6 gets an extraordinary lift from UConn's last three titles​

In both the 1998-99 and 2003-04 seasons, UConn's rankings looked very much like those that would be posted by a "normal" eventual national champion. The Huskies were ranked in the top 10 for the entirety of both seasons, a distinction carried by 21 of 38 champions since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Titles won by UConn in 2010-11, 2013-14 and 2022-23, however, capped off seasons that displayed much more unusual trajectories as captured by the AP poll. Those three titles were won under three different head coaches, with a gap of no less than nine years between the second and third championships in that run.

Yet somehow each title season followed a strikingly similar sequence:

1. Enter the season unranked or, at best, No. 25
2. Go undefeated for the first nine to 14 games
3. Peak in the AP poll in Week 6
4. Suffer six to nine losses in conference play
5. Win the national championship

Bear in mind, Week 6 was already best-in-class among AP polls for championship forecasting prior to last season. Now, thanks to the uncannily consistent UConn Huskies, Week 6's preeminence is even more pronounced.

 

[tzznandrew]

It was 21 which still ain’t a great look but you have two losses to top 5 teams vs a loss to Utah team that can’t possibly be good (Lost to SJU)

Did you watch the game? 40 was an exaggeration, but that games not even 21-point-final-score close. It was a debagging and teabagging of just epic proportions.

 

[Scrutineer]

Just checked Houston's schedule.

Oh my, they haven't played anyone.

Utah, I suppose, is their best game.

That's pretty much how it is every year. If they had done anything in the tournament each year I could give them a pass but they fail over and again so I'll go with their ratings as being part of a major conspiracy..........

 

[upstater]

He updated it for ESPN+ with a special shout-out to us.

So, UConn, Marquette, Creighton, Kansas, Purdue, Arizona.

I seriously doubt that UNC gets it act together, but with Davis they very well may.

 

[connVA]

That's pretty much how it is every year. If they had done anything in the tournament each year I could give them a pass but they fail over and again so I'll go with their ratings as being part of a major conspiracy..........

Sampson has gotten to the Sweet 16 or better in the last four tourneys so he’s somehow gotten away with loading up on non conference patsies. Kudos to him. But he’s now going to have to deal with slightly better competition in conference than Memphis (sarcasm), so we’ll see how long they hold on to that top 10 ranking.

 

[AllHusky]

Odd stat, Big 12 has 11 teams undefeated in conference play after 5-7 games, while the other 3 have all the losses