1 or 2 Seed Better?

[connVA]

Right now it feels like there are two tiers at the top. Duke, Mich, and Az are going to get the top 3 #1s in some order barring one of them losing multiple games. Below them are UConn, Houston, and Iowa State for the #1 in the South and the top two #2s. So the two best scenarios for us are: 1) Houston stays as the second #2 (or worse) meaning they won’t be put in the South with us; or 2) Duke slips to the third #1 and we slip to the second #2 (more likely Houston and Iowa State just pass us because of their tougher remaining schedules) putting us in the East with them.

 

[UofCT]

Is Scheyer still coaching Duke? Then I'll take Duke as a potential Elite 8 matchup any day of the week (and twice on Sunday) just on its own.

But when weighed against having to play a potential team in the Elite 8 in their home state...it is not even a debate.

Want to hear an incredible factoid that I don't think people realize :

In the past 20 years, UConn has only lost two games after the first weekend of the tournament--and they were both us having to play a team in their home state/location.

In the last 35 years, UConn has only lost 8 games after the first weekend. Of those 8 total losses for UConn...6 of them were us having to play against a team in their home state/location.

So UConn essentially either blows it in the first weekend, gets stuck having to play an away game in the NCAA tournament, or wins the Championship. That is crazy to me.

Here are all of our NCAA losses in the past 35 years after the first weekend:

2009 vs Michigan State in Detroit, MI
2006 vs George Mason in Washington, DC
2003 vs Texas in San Antonio, TX
2002 vs Maryland in Syracuse, NY
1998 vs North Carolina in Greensboro, NC
1996 vs Mississippi State in Lexington, KY
1995 vs UCLA in Oakland, CA
1994 vs Florida in Miami, FL

Duke made the final four last year and Elite 8 the year prior. The Scheyer doesn't know what he's doing narrative is just false.

 

[gsmooth]

In 23, Houston worried me. That was a talented team with Shead, Walker, Roberts. Pack just caught fire from 3 for Miami to knock them out.

It's odd I wasn't worried about Houston even if the Final Four was in Houston. I was concerned about that Miami match up because I saw their game against Houston and how they picked apart Houston's defense with Nigel Pack, Isaiah Wong, and Jordan Miller and how off script their offense can operate with their 1-on-1 abilities-it concerned the hell out of me. I didn't want another loss to Jim Larranaga.

 

[controlfade]

Agree, the kicker is that they'd likely have to beat us to get there. Can't have both.

I'd gladly swap to the 1 in that same region. I tend to think Florida will also be a 2 seed when it's all said and done, with one of Illinois or Purdue bumping out.

Florida is dangerous but I'm not really worried about Illinois or Purdue.

 

[ucp990411]

I can honestly say for the 1999, 2004, and 2024 I was not worried about the draws and match ups and that includes any of the conference opponents. For 2023, I would've been concerned about Marquette because they had Oliver Maxence-Prosper and he could shut down Jordan Hawkins. The games Jordan Hawkins went off were games UConn won that year, for the most part, and Shaka Smart correctly identified this and put OMP on Hawkins even though OMP's offense was negatively impacted.

For 2011 I was concerned for every match, but in retrospect I feel I didn't have to worry about any select few teams I wanted UConn to avoid-that 2011 team was determined and was on a run for the ages. The 2014, I wanted no part of Louisville.

I was thinking teams after the brackets were released

 

[Tenspro2002]

Right now it feels like there are two tiers at the top. Duke, Mich, and Az are going to get the top 3 #1s in some order barring one of them losing multiple games. Below them are UConn, Houston, and Iowa State for the #1 in the South and the top two #2s. So the two best scenarios for us are: 1) Houston stays as the second #2 (or worse) meaning they won’t be put in the South with us; or 2) Duke slips to the third #1 and we slip to the second #2 (more likely Houston and Iowa State just pass us because of their tougher remaining schedules) putting us in the East with them.

Why would us being #2 in the East with Duke be a good outcome?

 

[RuffRuff]

Current FD odds have us 8th. Find it fairly surprising we are 2x Florida and that much lower than Illinois & ISU.

 

[businesslawyer]

After seeing the reveal, I realized it’s probably unlikely we’d get the 2 in the East, because there are so many B1G and XII teams they have to avoid putting together. They can’t put their two outliers, us and Duke, in the same region except in some narrow circumstances.

I’m back on team “just win the stupid games and go get a 1 seed,” even if it’s in the South with Houston. As has been discussed, the 4s look particularly weaker than the 3s. And then, screw it, I’ll take our chances against Houston in the Elite Eight.

Also, with the win over Michigan Duke is unlikely to be worse than the #2 national seed, and we would have to lose twice more to slip to 7 or 8 where we’d be in their region.

 

[RuffRuff]

Florida is dangerous but I'm not really worried about Illinois or Purdue.

I have no concerns with Purdue, soft as charmin. I do think Illinois can present matchup issues. When they are on, they are on. That is a very talented roster, with 2 strong guards and size in the front court. They could easily be 2 loss as they have 3 OT losses. Illinois feels like the kind of team that can beat anyone.

 

[connVA]

The best case is obviously us being in the South with ISU but if I have to choose one of the other three I’ll take Hurley in a chess match with Scheyer. Also easier for the fan base (including me selfishly) to get there.

 

[RuffRuff]

The best case is obviously us being in the South with ISU but if I have to choose one of the other three I’ll take Hurley in a chess match with Scheyer. Also easier for the fan base (including me selfishly) to get there.

I think we'd have fits scoring against Duke. Ngongba has length over Tarris and can hold his own. I'm not sure Boozer chasing AK around is really enough. Willis could smother Mullins, Sarr could drape Ball or Silas. And then who defends Boozer? He'd run circles around AK. Of all the teams in the top 5-6, thats the one I like the least.

That is not a good matchup for us at all. Duke/Zona would be a really interesting matchup. Florida could probably matchup well with them. Illinois. There is a ton of size those teams favored to win it.

 

[ucp990411]

Duke made the final four last year and Elite 8 the year prior. The Scheyer doesn't know what he's doing narrative is just false

Duke made the final four last year and Elite 8 the year prior. The Scheyer doesn't know what he's doing narrative is just false.

Scheyer can recruit well because he has the Duke brand behind him but coaching I am not so sure. After the Michigan game he was interviewed and actually said that his halftime talk was nothing about strategy adjustments but about staying together. Last year against Houston his strategy in the last 10 minutes was to give the ball to Flagg. What about Kneupell?

 

[businesslawyer]

View attachment 117364
Current FD odds have us 8th. Find it fairly surprising we are 2x Florida and that much lower than Illinois & ISU.

If that means we’re getting 20 to 1, that seems like a good play.

 

[RuffRuff]

Scheyer can recruit well because he has the Duke brand behind him but coaching I am not so sure. After the Michigan game he was interviewed and actually said that his halftime talk was nothing about strategy adjustments but about staying together. Last year against Houston his strategy in the last 10 minutes was to give the ball to Flagg. What about Kneupell?

Thats the beef with him right now, that he's not creative in drawing up anything late in games when they need a bucket. It's all ISO to his star. Not sure if you saw it though, he drew up a back door slip off screen to Evan's in a key possession against UM, for an alley oop dunk. Was nice. Lot's calling for him COY this year given 5 new starters, even though it's a team full of 5 starts.

Scheyer is just getting such good talent. And it seems with the COVID year gone, winning with underclassmen isnt an issue. There are multiple teams doing it this year in Duke, AZ, Houston. Still not sure how Sampson can afford 3 Five starts and 3 guys back off an NC team, then complain in the media they don't have enough money.

 

[superjohn]

I think we'd have fits scoring against Duke. Ngongba has length over Tarris and can hold his own.

No he doesn't. They're both listed at 6'11 with reported 7'4 wingspans. Ngongba listed at 250 lbs. Tarris listed at 265 lbs.

It's hilarious you're on the Duke train now.

 

[connVA]

I think we'd have fits scoring against Duke. Ngongba has length over Tarris and can hold his own. I'm not sure Boozer chasing AK around is really enough. Willis could smother Mullins, Sarr could drape Ball or Silas. And then who defends Boozer? He'd run circles around AK. Of all the teams in the top 5-6, thats the one I like the least.

That is not a good matchup for us at all. Duke/Zona would be a really interesting matchup. Florida could probably matchup well with them. Illinois. There is a ton of size those teams favored to win it.

I don’t think any of the matchups would be great in terms of raw talent / personnel but as good as Scheyer has proven himself to be at building a roster his game management / adjustment ability is the most suspect IMHO. Would llove to see how /if he could handle whatever the staff would throw at him.

 

[RuffRuff]

No he doesn't. They're both listed at 6'11 with reported 7'4 wingspans. Ngongba listed at 250 lbs. Tarris listed at 265 lbs.

It's hilarious you're on the Duke train now.

I'm not on their train, I simply like to look at matchups. The whole country is on their train - they just beat the former 1 H2H in late Feb. They're worth looking at as one of the 3 teams most are suggesting are separating themselves, in seeing how we would matchup best. I really don't understand the backlash for looking at matchups. How do you think we'd matchup? Where are our advantages? If it's making Boozer chase AK, that feels like such a minimal advantage to the obvious disadvantage.

Ngongba vs Tarris

 

[superjohn]

I'm not on their train, I simply like to look at matchups. The whole country is on their train - they just beat the former 1 H2H in late Feb. They're worth looking at as one of the 3 teams most are suggesting are separating themselves, in seeing how we would matchup best. I really don't understand the backlash for looking at matchups. How do you think we'd matchup? Where are our advantages? If it's making Boozer chase AK, that feels like such a minimal advantage to the obvious disadvantage.

Ngongba vs Tarris View attachment 117376

I pointed out that you're factually incorrect in saying Ngongba has length over Tarris, he doesn't.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Ngongba vs Tarris View attachment 117376

I read this individual metric as showing that Ngongba is not that bad of a mismatch for Tarris. He's obviously higher but our guy is in the Top 30

 

[3rdbass]

I have no concerns with Purdue, soft as charmin. I do think Illinois can present matchup issues. When they are on, they are on. That is a very talented roster, with 2 strong guards and size in the front court. They could easily be 2 loss as they have 3 OT losses. Illinois feels like the kind of team that can beat anyone.

Illinois doesn't really have the athletes to give us trouble. I like that re-match if it happens.

 

[RuffRuff]

I pointed out that you're factually incorrect in saying Ngongba has length over Tarris, he doesn't.

three inches in standing reach

He's also being mocked in the first round in most draft tables.

 

[UofCT]

Scheyer can recruit well because he has the Duke brand behind him but coaching I am not so sure. After the Michigan game he was interviewed and actually said that his halftime talk was nothing about strategy adjustments but about staying together. Last year against Houston his strategy in the last 10 minutes was to give the ball to Flagg. What about Kneupell?

Hes winning though, it’s not like he’s losing in round of 32. He’s going very deep in tournament and dominating regular season.

 

[superjohn]

three inches in standing reach

He's also being mocked in the first round in most draft tables.

Where are you getting the measurements from? I don't see any combine measurements for either of them.

 

[RuffRuff]

Where are you getting the measurements from? I don't see any combine measurements for either of them.

Google - and he plays longer.

 

[superjohn]

Google - and he plays longer.

I of course use google too and can't find anywhere they've both been measured.

He plays longer?

Tarris gets more points, rebounds, blocks, steals per game/per 40 and has a higher fg% than him.

 

[RuffRuff]

I of course use google too and can't find anywhere they've both been measured.

He plays longer?

Tarris gets more points, rebounds, blocks, steals per game/per 40 and has a higher fg% than him.

Let me ask you think - you poll 20 college coaches and ask them who'd they'd rather start a college team with?

Why does EvenMaya have his rated 20 spots higher?

 

[RuffRuff]

I've seen this now a couple times, but if they ever do put StJ as the 5 seed in our bracket, it would be the biggest crock. You put the second highest BE seed tucked in?

 

[superjohn]

Let me ask you think - you poll 20 college coaches and ask them who'd they'd rather start a college team with?

Why does EvenMaya have his rated 20 spots higher?

Ask any coaches in the country other than Scheyer and they won't have Patrick Ngongba as the 7th best player in the country.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

For any of the 6 championship teams, were there any teams or bad match ups you were concerned about before the brackets were revealed or after they were revealed?

In 2004 I was convinced we'd have all we could handle against the Lakers. Other than that....

In 1999 the only time I considered the possibility of anyone beating us was during the Gonzaga game (that still gives me nightmares). I spent most of the second half having panic attacks that some supernatural force would always prevent us from making the final four.

In 2004 I didn't think anything other than Okafor reinjuring his back could stop us.

The best part of those two runs was beating Duke in the finals, then five years later beating them again, in the semifinals that time.

In 2011, once we got through the BE tournament I was almost as confident as I was the prior two title runs as nobody out there looked any better than we were and we had too much confidence from the BET.

In 2014, that we showed we were finally willing to stand up and fight with Louisville in the second half of the AAC title game (we may have been able to pull it off if we started at tipoff), I was sure we would beat them the next time we played (thinking it would be in the tournament). I was very worried for the entirety of the St Joe's game (the broadcast constantly showing Martelli's grandson brought some terrifying flashbacks to 1994, when they kept showing Lon Kruger's kid). Going into the Nova game I didn't think we would be in trouble (as many predicted) because we knew them. I really thought the run was over in the the first half when we were down by a lot and Bazz had to sit with foul trouble. When we got back in the game with Bazz on the bench I knew the gane was ours and started anticipating a title game against Louisville (who, as I said earlier, I fully believed we figured out how to stand up to in the AAC title game). Kentucky stopped that, but having a reverse run against Kentucky for titles three and four from what we did to Duke in titles one was also very enjoyable.

In 23, I thought things would be similar to 2011 where we would remain unbeaten out of conference. I didn't see any one team that I feared, but felt we were capable of beating ourselves. I didn't expect us to destroy everyone the way we did until well I to the first half against Arkansas, but after that game it looked like the only teams that may be able to give us a challenge were already eliminated.

In 24, I would have even taken my chances against the Lakers.

I refuse to speculate on what may be a better draw for us and I will never hope for one outcome over another on games that will lead up to a matchup with us. I remember Florida in 1994, Mississippi St in 1996, George Mason in 2006. I'll take my chances against whoever is in front of us.

 

[RuffRuff]

Ask any coaches in the country other than Scheyer and they won't have Patrick Ngongba as the 7th best player in the country.

He's being slated as a mid first round pick, so he's not that far off. If you look at Maya it favors bigs.

Pat Ngongba’s Stock Rising in Latest NBA Mock Draft

Duke basketball sophomore center Patrick Ngongba II has taken a major leap in a starting role through the first half of his second season in Durham. Ngongba was

www.si.com