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UConn -5.5

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I see these posts and I always add more onto my bet. There are no Christmas presents, only sheep lining up for the slaughter.
Good for you. Based on how the two teams were trending respectively going into the game, I still wouldn’t have touched it with a ten foot pole.
 

2014DualCs

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I love fading the public. It’s hard to do sometimes. In the NFL, when you fade the public , you often end up betting on the jets or the jags. Where do you get your stats for % of bets vs. % of money? I would like to see those numbers when I bet as well.

@XLCenterFan I posted where I get it in a post directly after my original. The app Action Sports Network (pay for pro, it's worth it if you gamble regularly).

But yes, it's most certainly an art. Blindly fading the public on every game you bet will have you eating ramen in no time. Siding with the "Sharp" $ and "Big" $ differences on a side that also sees very little public action is where to start. After that, just looking for weird lines like my original post stated.

Another example, last night you have the #1 team in the country going to Arkansas only at -1.5... 72% of public was on Auburn because why not?? Arkansas ends up winning.

Will not be 100% wins, no gambling ever is, but I promise it'll be profitable over time.
 

XLCenterFan

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@XLCenterFan I posted where I get it in a post directly after my original. The app Action Sports Network (pay for pro, it's worth it if you gamble regularly).

But yes, it's most certainly an art. Blindly fading the public on every game you bet will have you eating ramen in no time. Siding with the "Sharp" $ and "Big" $ differences on a side that also sees very little public action is where to start. After that, just looking for weird lines like my original post stated.

Another example, last night you have the #1 team in the country going to Arkansas only at -1.5... 72% of public was on Auburn because why not?? Arkansas ends up winning.

Will not be 100% wins, no gambling ever is, but I promise it'll be profitable over time.
Well put. I am in an NFL pick em pool (ATS) with 10 guys. I find that when everyone has the same team, it loses more than it wins. I try to zig when they zag. However, this season it felt like public teams covered more than usual. Like TB -10 won more than it should have, and books got smoked some weekends. I can go back and try to get the exact numbers, but there were NFL weekends this season where Joe Public won a bunch.
 

2014DualCs

#44 Kangaroo Jack
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Well put. I am in an NFL pick em pool (ATS) with 10 guys. I find that when everyone has the same team, it loses more than it wins. I try to zig when they zag. However, this season it felt like public teams covered more than usual. Like TB -10 won more than it should have, and books got smoked some weekends. I can go back and try to get the exact numbers, but there were NFL weekends this season where Joe Public won a bunch.
NFL is probably the best handicapped sport by Vegas. Makes it one of the more difficult to bet. For fading the public there are numbers supporting fading any game that has a side with 70%+ public and 80%+ public for NFL, with each hitting at a higher clip respectively (both above 57% if I remember correctly = profitable and professional win %). Anything under that requires a true analysis into the matchups within the matchups. That's why I let the sharp bettors do that work and steal their ideas using the Action Sports Network (Pro) as they have sharp indicators on a side.

Side note: next year I suggest listening to "Bet the Board" podcast as they don't necessarily give you many picks, but do a great job with their analysis on some of the bigger games and have you lean towards a side.
 

WeAreUCONN

Why So Serious ¿
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No he’s not, he’s a troll.
I’ve been a UConn Men’s Basketball fan for the past 35 years. I’m certainly not a troll but I don’t like when we suck.
 
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I’ve been a UConn Men’s Basketball fan for the past 35 years. I’m certainly not a troll but I don’t like when we suck.
Based on your posts, not just the stupidity displayed in this thread, that is either a lie or you know nothing about college basketball. My guess it is both.
 

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