This is what I've found most puzzling about Tennessee's program, dating well back before Pat's departure. It seems like they've had countless players who were very promising freshmen getting considerable playing time but who ended up plateauing sometime between their freshman and sophomore years. Bashaara Graves is one that comes to mind at the moment. She was a beast as a freshman. But did she ever get better? So, so many just like her over the past 10 years or so.
I did a bit of research on this and instead of looking at the recruits ranking, I looked at the recruits high school GRADE. I also only did a comparison from the classes that were under Holly their entire career. You will note the biggest difference in the 2 programs and the success at the next level is that UConn had 3 players that entered the program out of high school with a 98 rating, while TN had 0 players with that rating. You will also note their success at the next level is very similar for those players that are rated below 98. (4 out of 8 players in the W and for TN there are 3 out of 7).
The theory holds true that the key to winning the big titles is to land recruits with 98 coming out of high school. When Baylor won the ship, they had a 99 player on the roster. For fun, I looked up Notre Dame. They have had no 98 players. Both Diggins and Loyd were 97.
UConn Summary 2010 thru 2012
98 ratings - 3 players - 2 start in the WNBA, 1 off the bench
97 ratings - 1 player - 1 WNBA off the bench
96 ratings - 2 players - 1 WNBA off the bench
95 ratings - 2 players - 1 WNBA starter
94 ratings - 3 players - 1 WNBA off the bench
TN Summary 2010 thru 2012
98 ratings - 0 players
97 ratings - 1 player - 1 WNBA bench player
96 ratings - 2 players - 1 WNBA bench player
95 ratings - 2 players - 0 (careers ended to injuries)
94 ratings - 2 players - 1 WNBA off the bench
2012 - UConn recruits were 98, 98, 97 ----> 98 WNBA Star. 98 WNBA rookie started, 97 solid contributer off the bench in WNBA
2012 - TN 97, 95, 94, 85 ----> 97 WNBA bench player. 95 ended career due to knee injuries, 94 ended career due to concussions, 85 signed overseas contract
2011 UConn - 98, 94, 94 ---->98 WNBA contributor off the bench, 94 transferred, 94 solid contributor off the bench
2011 TN - 96, 96, 94----> 96 to the WNBA, 96 ended career due to concussions, 94 WNBA bench player
2010 UConn - 96, 96, 95, 95, 93 ----> 96 transferred, 96 WNBA bench contributor, 95 WNBA starter, 95 transferred, 93 transferred
2010 TN - 95, 95 ---->95 WNBA contributor off the bench, 95 ended career due to injuries