Selection Show thread (7 ET, ESPN)

[Plebe]

Sagarin has Michigan #23 and Auburn #47. Guess that stellar SEC helped the latter.

Sagarin has had Michigan way too high all season. They were in the upper teens until they lost 4 of their last 5 games.

 

[UConnNick]

Syracuse got a raw deal

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Good. Maybe Coach Q can get Boeheim to help him whine about it. Nobody whines better than Boeheim. He just got through spending a whole day whining about getting left out of the men's tournament. He's on a roll.

 

[UConnNick]

I am always amazed how fans of nearly every highly ranked team annually are convinced that their team got the worst draw!

If Maryland is a top 4 team, I would rather play them in Bridgeport with the home crowd than in the final four!

Hope UCLA gets knocked off - quick guards and more scoring than I would want to face. Duke? No problem.

I think we beat MD by 20+ at any venue.

 

[bballnut90]

I highly disagree first of all your very contradicting and it seems your biased towards SC. How can you say Baylor is the weakest #1 seed but have them making the final four ? The only problem SC should have is traveling across 3 time zones. None of the top 4 seeds in Stockton worry me. Org St only has Wiese, take her away and make others score like Stanford did. Fl st is struggling right now and lack the height. Miami is streaky and not very good defensively.

A bit aggressive of a response but I'll bite..Baylor advances due to matchups. I think OSU will beat South Carolina, but Mississippi State will not beat Baylor. I think South Carolina is better than Baylor if Jones isn't 100%, but in each team's path to the Final Four, I'd bet on Baylor making it over SC.

I don't think Miami is a scary team. Florida State has struggled as of late, but if they can pull things together they're a heck of a good team. Tougher team to beat than Washington or Mississippi State if they're on their a game. They were strongly in contention for a 1 seed until the Texas loss at home which led to the late season slide. Semrau is a phenomenal coach and I think she can get them back to that level of play with a couple of weeks to regroup. They also are hungry for their first Final Four and have their best shot to do it in quite some time. It'll also be a rematch of the 2015 regional final which was one that slipped out of their fingers, so I think they'll find extra motivation there.

Oregon State isn't scary on paper but they play efficient good basketball and have an amazing coach in Rueck. Wiese is also an outstanding big guard who is difficult to stop. It'll be a slower grind it out game if the two meet, but if it's tight and late in the game, I'd bet on Rueck over Staley.

You don't have to agree, but that's my thought process.

 

[UConnNick]

I think South Carolina got screwed again. My understanding was that the higher your seed, the more likely you are placed in the regional closest to you. Last year, they bumped Notre Dame above South Carolina and that was the explanation as to why ND went to Lexington and USC went to Sioux Falls.

This year, USC is #3 and Baylor is #4. I thought it was a rule as the #3 seed, USC would be placed in the closest regional available; that should have been OKC. But, the committee either dumped that rule or found a way to justify #4 Baylor getting geographic preference above USC.

They put Baylor in OKC to draw bigger crowds.

 

[Gus Mahler]

Quick thoughts on the brackets....

Bridgeport: Maryland could be the toughest opponent UCONN has faced pre Final Four since LSU in 2007. Connecticut will still be a heavy heavy favorite, but Jones is a player who is a lot to handle and Slocum is a capable scorer. Maryland is badly underseeded at 9 overall. I don't care about lack of quality of wins, or the fact that OSU lost in the semis which prevented Maryland from beating them in the finals. Eye test says there aren't 4 better teams in the nation than the Terps. UCONN rolls through this, potential for a tough game against Maryland. They'll crush Duke and UCLA/A&M.

Best match up to watch: Duke/Maryland in the Sweet 16. Lexie Brown vs. her old team. Maryland is a great scoring team, Duke plays good defense. Should be a good matchup.

Oklahoma City: Not sure why Landers was making a huge deal out of this regional....I think it is the weakest by far. You have:

Baylor-with an injured Alexis Jones they lost pretty handily to West Virginia. They're good but not great without her and could easily be upset (as we saw last weekend.) The weakest #1 seed IMO.

Tennessee-as a 5 seed they aren't that scary. They could EASILY lose to Dayton and be bounced round 1. They also could make a Final Four but they aren't that scary for any team they face in the Sweet 16 and beyond. Easily the least deserving #5 seed.

Louisville-another team that has been very up and down. Lots of fire power, but they don't play great basketball. An average 4 seed.

Washington-yes, Plum can score and Osahor is great. Besides that, I'm not all that impressed with their team. They're 1-4 against teams that are top 4 seeds. They also enter the tournament on a loss at home to Oregon. I could easily see them bounced in the 2nd round. Weakest 3 seed.

Mississippi State-rough finish to the season for a team that is dreadful offensively if Vivians isn't on. Another team that could lose in round 2 if Depaul gets hot. I think they are a weaker 2 seed.

I honestly could see any of the top 5 making the Final Four. I think Washington torches Mississippi State in the Sweet 16 if the play and they could upset Baylor if they can slow down the frontcourt of Baylor. I'll still pick Baylor here.

Best potential matchup: Tennessee/Baylor would be a great rematch. Tennessee is capable of playing much much better than they showed earlier in the season against Baylor, and Baylor isn't as good without a healthy Jones.

Lexington: This is a loaded regional. In your top 6 you have:
Notre Dame-the clear cut #2 team in the nation to finish the season IMO. Muffet is one of the very best coaches in the nation.
Stanford-arguably the strongest 2 seed playing good basketball to finish the year. Tara is one of the best coaches out there.
Texas-a dangerous, streaky #3 seed. Capable of beating really good teams (ex. Baylor/FSU) but also capable of playing below potential.
Kentucky-not that intimidating but they'll be playing at home.
Ohio State-very potent team offensively. Could post a huge threat to Notre Dame in the Sweet 16.
NC State-wins over Notre Dame, Duke, Florida State and Louisville. Very capable of upsetting Texas and Stanford.

I think Notre Dame wins this regional but Tara can work magic, and Texas poses trouble with their athleticism.

Best matchup: hard call here.....I would love to see the following matchups though:
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Texas vs. Stanford (rematch)
Notre Dame vs. Texas or Notre Dame vs. Stanford.
Notre Dame and Stanford have met in the regionals 2 years in a row and look to be on a collision course to make it 3 straight.

Stockton: A good, top heavy regional. South Carolina could easily be upset by Oregon State or Florida State. Oregon State plays great defense and rebounds well. If they can slow down SC's bigs, I think they'll pull off the upset. They'll have to beat Florida State though, who has a very talented roster despite a sluggish finish. They barely lost to South Carolina 2 years ago in the regional final. I think the winner of FSU or OSU wins the regional.

Best matchup: Florida State vs. Oregon State. Not necessarily the most exciting matchup, but 2 very good contrasting teams who can both make it to the Final Four.

Final Four: I'll keep this short and sweet. Notre Dame over Oregon State in a big blowout, UCONN in a tighter one over Baylor. UCONN beats ND for the title.

I think Notre Dame, Maryland and Baylor are the toughest matchups for Connecticut, so this may be a little bit hopeful for me. All 3 CAN potentially pull off an upset, but I just don't see it happening with how well the Huskies have played since December.

Nice, thoughtful post.

 

[UConnNick]

Not as raw as the NIT-bound Syracuse men!

Good! Boeheim is a serial NCAA rules cheater, and an enabler who allowed a sex pervert to victimize young men and be around his team and staff for many, many years. He should have been fired.

 

[Gus Mahler]

I've arrived late to the party, but I'm stupefied at the idea that UConn got a rough deal in the bracket.

First of all, we would crush Syracuse, but may not even play them. Echoing oldude, if we can't win two games in Storrs against an 8 seed or lower, we certainly don't deserve a championship.

UConn would crush UCLA. Ditto for Texas A&M. Also Duke. The only concerns are WVU and Maryland. I know nothing about WVU, but if Geno says they're good I'll go with that. Could Maryland beat us? Sure. Of course they could beat us. But they couldn't beat us at home in front of a big crowd with several UConn players under the weather. And didn't Gabby or Pheesa or both have foul trouble? I'm perfectly comfortable playing them for the FF on any court. But they might not survive WVU!

If UConn is healthy and brings it's A- game or above, they power through the regional and enter the Final Four by kicking down the doors.

 

[Plebe]

I will definitely be a Temple Fan on Saturday..... GO OWLS !!!! Get one for the AAC !!!!

Really? After all the smack you talked about Temple and USF this year??

 

[Plebe]

LOL Auburn gets in, Tennessee a 5 seed, and South Carolina with the easiest path.

Man that SEC is soooooo good! They've sent 1 team to the Final Four in 9 years.

I suspect they bumped Tennessee from a 6 to a 5 in order to put them at Louisville. This committee clearly had a strong geography focus.

 

[ASweet3781]

I've arrived late to the party, but I'm stupefied at the idea that UConn got a rough deal in the bracket.

First of all, we would crush Syracuse, but may not even play them. Echoing oldude, if we can't win two games in Storrs against an 8 seed or lower, we certainly don't deserve a championship.

UConn would crush UCLA. Ditto for Texas A&M. Also Duke. The only concerns are WVU and Maryland. I know nothing about WVU, but if Geno says they're good I'll go with that. Could Maryland beat us? Sure. Of course they could beat us. But they couldn't beat us at home in front of a big crowd with several UConn players under the weather. And didn't Gabby or Pheesa or both have foul trouble? I'm perfectly comfortable playing them for the FF on any court. But they might not survive WVU!

If UConn is healthy and brings it's A- game or above, they power through the regional and enter the Final Four by kicking down the doors.

You know nothing about West Virginia yet are stupefied anyone might think the bracket is tough? Kinda explains a lot.

In the last week, West Virginia beat Oklahoma by 30, beat #3 seed Texas, and blew out #1 seed Baylor. They are the 6th seed in our region.

 

[Plebe]

The biggest jaw-dropper for me is Drake being a 10 seed. And they have to play at K State.

Again, another geography matchup that was likely achieved by bumping down a seed line.

 

[ASweet3781]

I suspect they bumped Tennessee from a 6 to a 5 in order to put them at Louisville. This committee clearly had a strong geography focus.

Yet UCLA got sent east while Miami got sent to Stockton?

 

[LO TRADER]

I highly disagree first of all your very contradicting and it seems your biased towards SC. How can you say Baylor is the weakest #1 seed but have them making the final four ? The only problem SC should have is traveling across 3 time zones. None of the top 4 seeds in Stockton worry me. Org St only has Wiese, take her away and make others score like Stanford did. Fl st is struggling right now and lack the height. Miami is streaky and not very good defensively.

Well I sure hope we get the chance to see SC play OSU, assuming they both make it to the Elite 8.

 

[Plebe]

You know nothing about West Virginia yet are stupefied anyone might think the bracket is tough? Kinda explains a lot.

In the last week, West Virginia beat Oklahoma by 30, beat #3 seed Texas, and blew out #1 seed Baylor. They are the 6th seed in our region.

Look at it this way. UConn won't have to beat both West Virginia and Maryland. It's quite possible that neither one makes the regional final.

 

[JordyG]

Interesting post by someone with the handle "Canadaball" on RebKell's Junkie Boards,

"Last year, 4 male coached teams made the Final 4. This year, in studying the brackets, it ia apparent that the all women seeding committee did everything possible to avoid a repeat. There are 26 male coached teams in the 2017 field. Somehow 10 found their way into UConn's bracket. Male coached West Virginia put on a huge late season run beating, in succession, 6 seed Oklahoma, 3 seed Texas and 1 seed Baylor. This legitimate longshot for the Final 4 was lowseeded at 6, and given the UConn checkmate. Look at poor male coached Syracuse given an 8 seed. Miami got a coveted home seed at 4 despite getting buried by Syracuse in their only meeting this year, and having a worse ACC record. Just to be sure Syracuse would not repeat last year's Final 4 run, they too were given the UConn checkmate.
Looking at the other male coached legitimate teams not in UConn's bracket, some get matched with other male coached teams; thus we see 4 seed Kentucky colliding with 5 seed OSU; Louisville (4 seed) gets Jim Foster coached Chattanooga in first round, and the dangerous Tennesse in second round. Note that the Baylor and South Carolina brackets have precious few male coached top 6 seeds.[/b]"

Seeing conspiracy where there is none, lies, throwing up straw dogs, conjecture based on supposition or conjecture based on fact? Anyone?

 

[Plebe]

Yet UCLA got sent east while Miami got sent to Stockton?

They like keeping teams within "driving distance" (defined as 350 miles) of their playing site. Knoxville to Louisville is within that. Miami to Storrs isn't.

Same reason they kept Baylor in OKC and sent SC to Stockton.

 

[ASweet3781]

They like keeping teams within "driving distance" (defined as 350 miles) of their playing site. Knoxville to Louisville is within that. Miami to Storrs isn't.

Same reason they kept Baylor in OKC and sent SC to Stockton.

Still kinda weird to send UCLA all the way east instead of Stockton based on geography, S Curve, balance etc. Only explanation I have is they wanted to make sure UConn has the toughest possible opponent it could have each round.

 

[Plebe]

Interesting post by someone with the handle "Canadaball" on RebKell's Junkie Boards,

"Last year, 4 male coached teams made the Final 4. This year, in studying the brackets, it ia apparent that the all women seeding committee did everything possible to avoid a repeat. There are 26 male coached teams in the 2017 field. Somehow 10 found their way into UConn's bracket. Male coached West Virginia put on a huge late season run beating, in succession, 6 seed Oklahoma, 3 seed Texas and 1 seed Baylor. This legitimate longshot for the Final 4 was lowseeded at 6, and given the UConn checkmate. Look at poor male coached Syracuse given an 8 seed. Miami got a coveted home seed at 4 despite getting buried by Syracuse in their only meeting this year, and having a worse ACC record. Just to be sure Syracuse would not repeat last year's Final 4 run, they too were given the UConn checkmate.
Looking at the other male coached legitimate teams not in UConn's bracket, some get matched with other male coached teams; thus we see 4 seed Kentucky colliding with 5 seed OSU; Louisville (4 seed) gets Jim Foster coached Chattanooga in first round, and the dangerous Tennesse in second round. Note that the Baylor and South Carolina brackets have precious few male coached top 6 seeds.[/b]"

Seeing conspiracy where there is none, throwing up straw dogs, conjecture based on supposition or conjecture based on fact? Anyone?

Let's see here. The head coaches of the 2, 3 and 4 seeds in the Bridgeport region are all females. So I'm skeptical.

 

[Plebe]

Still kinda weird to send UCLA all the way east instead of Stockton based on geography, S Curve, balance etc. Only explanation I have is they wanted to make sure UConn has the toughest possible opponent it could have each round.

They can't send UCLA to Stockton if Oregon State is there. They followed the S-curve for the 2 and 3 seeds and then had no choice at that point to pick UCLA as the 4. One of the top 4 Pac-12 teams had to go to each regional.

 

[ASweet3781]

They can't send UCLA to Stockton if Oregon State is there. They followed the S-curve for the 2 and 3 seeds and then had no choice at that point to pick UCLA as the 4. One of the top 4 Pac-12 teams had to go to each regional.

That seems like an odd rule. Oregon State and UCLA can't meet in a regional final?

 

[LO TRADER]

That seems like an odd rule. Oregon State and UCLA can't meet in a regional final?

How can anyone defend one region being more challenging than another region? I think the selection committee did as well as any other "selection committee" could have done. Let the games begin!

 

[Plebe]

That seems like an odd rule. Oregon State and UCLA can't meet in a regional final?

That's right. The rule is that the top 4 teams from a conference must be placed in separate regions if they are on the top 4 seed lines.

This is also why Notre Dame, Duke, Florida State, and Louisville (the top 4 from the ACC) were each placed in a separate regional.

I believe this rule was instituted after the Elite 8 game in 2011 between Baylor and Texas A&M, which elicited a lot of complaints.

 

[ASweet3781]

That's right. The rule is that the top 4 teams from a conference must be placed in separate regions if they are on the top 4 seed lines.

This is also why Notre Dame, Duke, Florida State, and Louisville (the top 4 from the ACC) were each placed in a separate regional.

I believe this rule was instituted after the Elite 8 game in 2011 between Baylor and Texas A&M, which no one was really happy about.

Oh, Power 5 protection at all costs I guess.

 

[Plebe]

Oh, Power 5 protection at all costs I guess.

No, the rule applies to any conference.